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Sutton United & Forest Green Rovers

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GollyGTFC
April 2, 2024, 10:49am

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With Colchester having 5 of their remaining 7 matches at home and them being unbeaten at home in their last 5 matches it seems likely they will stay up. So if we are going to avoid a third relegation to the National League I think it's going to have to be Sutton United and Forest Green Rovers who are relegated and who we need to stay above in the league table.

Sutton United

Sutton United have put together 4 impressive results albeit in fixtures against struggling sides. They won at FGR. And they had a good away win at struggling Salford sandwiched between 2 home wins over 2 sides that have major issues on and off the pitch (Accrington & Swindon).

However their final 4 fixtures are the exact opposite in terms of the state and quality of opposition...
  • Stockport County at home (Top of L2 and unbeaten in 8 and 3 straight wins)
  • Harrogate Town away (5 unbeaten including 2 wins and 3 draws including 2 against top 5 opposition. Still have a slim play-off chance)
  • Crawley Town at home (7th placed and have won 5 of last 6 away)
  • MK Dons away (4th placed and chasing an automatic promotion spot.)


I just don't see them getting many points out of those matches. They might not get any. 4 points would be a superb return in normal circumstances. Sutton will probably be hoping MK Dons fate is already sealed before the last day (either already promoted or 4th place finish already guaranteed). With that in mind I think they will get 6 points maximum.

Current Points: 39
High Prediction: 45 points

Forest Green Rovers

Their recent form has been very much all or nothing. In their last 10 games they've had 4 wins to nil, 5 defeats to nil and a 1-1 draw after leading for 90 minutes against Wrexham. So the first goal in their games have been crucial. They show great game management when winning, but seem to wave the white flag when they go behind. Their poor goalscoring record probably contributes to the latter. i.e. when they go behind they don't believe they can turn the game around.

Their remaining 5 fixtures include 3 really tough matches (3 of the top 4) before 2 more winnable games to finish the season...
  • MK Dons at home (Inconsistent away. Don't draw many matches- 2 draws in last 23)
  • Mansfield Town away (2nd in table. Best defence in L2 v 2nd worst goalscorers).
  • Wrexham away (3rd in table. Best PPG at home and highest scorers at home)
  • Morecambe away (8th in table but only 1 clean sheet in last 12)
  • Notts County at home (The highest scorers and worst defence in L2)


They probably need a win against MK Dons given that those 3 away games are tough, although Morecambe's inconsistency makes that winnable, Notts County could finish 5-0 to either side or 5-5. I can't see them getting anything from Mansfield or Wrexham. The other games will probably yield 4 or 5 points, but equally I could see them winning all 3. So I think they will get 9 points maximum.

Current Points: 36
High Prediction: 45 points

Grimsby Town

Current Points: 40

I think 45 points will be enough given our goal difference advantage. 46 points to be certain and would allow for Sutton closing the GD difference gap with either a good win for them or some heavy defeats for us.

The question is, are we good enough to get 6 points from our final 6 matches? 40 points from 40 matches suggests we are.

We should be looking to win both our remaining home games comfortably. Do that and any away points will be a bonus. We could certainly expect points away at Colchester and even Crewe given their collapse in form.

My prediction: We'll survive
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TAGG
April 2, 2024, 10:53am

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Were going down.


In his three stints as Grimsby Town manager spanning over 10 years the club was never relegated and he also guided them to three promotions.
Only 14 managers have reached 1,000 matches in charge of a Football League team by 1998 and Buckley is one of them.
GOD
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GollyGTFC
April 2, 2024, 11:01am

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Quoted from TAGG
Were going down.


"Were" going down? So you we're going to stay up now?
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Marinerdeano
April 2, 2024, 11:02am
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Sorry, posted this elsewhere but perhaps belongs here:

OK so slept on this and Head a bit clearer and objective:

FGR - still effectively 5 points behind us with 5 to play and tough run in. One win for us should be enough to steer clear of them. May not even need that. One week where we better their result should finish them.

Colchester - should claw enough points with home games although tough games coming up. I think they will be fine.

Which leaves a straight contest between ourselves and Sutton. Assuming we get that 1 win, that would mean Sutton would need 4 points from their remaining 4 games and to turn around the goal difference. Tough run in but there is a chance they could get that. Let's not forget though, we have 6 games left so a couple of draws would hopefully see us home too. Think 45 points may just do it. 1 win sooner rather than later is crucial.
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Poojah
April 2, 2024, 11:16am
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I’m in agreement that 46 points is likely going to be enough for survival, and in that sense the 4 points dropped in recent weeks to injury time penalties makes that all the more frustrating.

To that end, I think Saturday’s game is now a very significant one. Win and it puts us in touching distance of theoretical safety; lose and we’re even deeper in the mire of a what’s looking a very competitive relegation battle. How we’d cope with that mentally is a huge question mark.

Exciting times, I suppose.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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GollyGTFC
April 2, 2024, 11:20am

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Quoted from Poojah
I’m in agreement that 46 points is likely going to be enough for survival, and in that sense the 4 points dropped in recent weeks to injury time penalties makes that all the more frustrating.

To that end, I think Saturday’s game is now a very significant one. Win and it puts us in touching distance of theoretical safety; lose and we’re even deeper in the mire of a what’s looking a very competitive relegation battle. How we’d cope with that mentally is a huge question mark.

Exciting times, I suppose.


What made yesterday doubly annoying was Col U, FGR and Sutton all knew we were 1-0 up and were probably about to leave the changing room when they'd have been told Grimsby have conceded. It would have been a huge boost to all 3 teams.
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marinerdazza
April 2, 2024, 11:20am
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Yeah, I think Saturday is the decider. If FGR and Sutton keep up the unlikeliest of runs (Sutton's verging on the bizarre) and we bollox it up again, then it's goodnight Charlie.

I'm pretty much resigned to it. Everything that could go wrong, has. All the luck we've had has been shite. I just don't see it changing.
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lew chaterleys lover
April 2, 2024, 11:21am
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People fall mostly in the positive or negative camps due to their personality,  but we haven't won at home "comfortably" for months have we so what makes you think that will change?

Sutton have got the bit between their teeth and FGR won't give up without a fight so anything can happen.

My only comfort is when we went down the first time we ran out of games despite a late rally so I hope that happens to the other two, but equally we could finish bottom.

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LocalLadGTFC
April 2, 2024, 11:25am
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I'm only confident we stay up due to there only being 5 games left for FGR and 4 for Sutton, if we had the same amount of games played i'd expect us to go down.
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Hagrid
April 2, 2024, 11:25am

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as said, the 2 home games are massive

we dont lose many away, but we've only won 1.

Swindon have the worst away form in the division and we have them to play at home.
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