Sutton United & Forest Green Rovers

With Colchester having 5 of their remaining 7 matches at home and them being unbeaten at home in their last 5 matches it seems likely they will stay up. So if we are going to avoid a third relegation to the National League I think it's going to have to be Sutton United and Forest Green Rovers who are relegated and who we need to stay above in the league table.

Sutton United

Sutton United have put together 4 impressive results albeit in fixtures against struggling sides. They won at FGR. And they had a good away win at struggling Salford sandwiched between 2 home wins over 2 sides that have major issues on and off the pitch (Accrington & Swindon).

However their final 4 fixtures are the exact opposite in terms of the state and quality of opposition...

• Stockport County at home (Top of L2 and unbeaten in 8 and 3 straight wins)
  
• Harrogate Town away (5 unbeaten including 2 wins and 3 draws including 2 against top 5 opposition. Still have a slim play-off chance)
  
• Crawley Town at home (7th placed and have won 5 of last 6 away)
  
• MK Dons away (4th placed and chasing an automatic promotion spot.)
  

I just don't see them getting many points out of those matches. They might not get any. 4 points would be a superb return in normal circumstances. Sutton will probably be hoping MK Dons fate is already sealed before the last day (either already promoted or 4th place finish already guaranteed). With that in mind I think they will get 6 points maximum.

Current Points: 39
High Prediction: 45 points

Forest Green Rovers

Their recent form has been very much all or nothing. In their last 10 games they've had 4 wins to nil, 5 defeats to nil and a 1-1 draw after leading for 90 minutes against Wrexham. So the first goal in their games have been crucial. They show great game management when winning, but seem to wave the white flag when they go behind. Their poor goalscoring record probably contributes to the latter. i.e. when they go behind they don't believe they can turn the game around.

Their remaining 5 fixtures include 3 really tough matches (3 of the top 4) before 2 more winnable games to finish the season...

• MK Dons at home (Inconsistent away. Don't draw many matches- 2 draws in last 23)
  
• Mansfield Town away (2nd in table. Best defence in L2 v 2nd worst goalscorers).
  
• Wrexham away (3rd in table. Best PPG at home and highest scorers at home)
  
• Morecambe away (8th in table but only 1 clean sheet in last 12)
  
• Notts County at home (The highest scorers and worst defence in L2)
  

They probably need a win against MK Dons given that those 3 away games are tough, although Morecambe's inconsistency makes that winnable, Notts County could finish 5-0 to either side or 5-5. I can't see them getting anything from Mansfield or Wrexham. The other games will probably yield 4 or 5 points, but equally I could see them winning all 3. So I think they will get 9 points maximum.

Current Points: 36
High Prediction: 45 points

Grimsby Town

Current Points: 40

I think 45 points will be enough given our goal difference advantage. 46 points to be certain and would allow for Sutton closing the GD difference gap with either a good win for them or some heavy defeats for us.

The question is, are we good enough to get 6 points from our final 6 matches? 40 points from 40 matches suggests we are.

We should be looking to win both our remaining home games comfortably. Do that and any away points will be a bonus. We could certainly expect points away at Colchester and even Crewe given their collapse in form.

My prediction: We'll survive

Were going down.

Quoted from TAGG

Were going down.

"Were" going down? So you we're going to stay up now?

Sorry, posted this elsewhere but perhaps belongs here:

OK so slept on this and Head a bit clearer and objective:

FGR - still effectively 5 points behind us with 5 to play and tough run in. One win for us should be enough to steer clear of them. May not even need that. One week where we better their result should finish them.

Colchester - should claw enough points with home games although tough games coming up. I think they will be fine.

Which leaves a straight contest between ourselves and Sutton. Assuming we get that 1 win, that would mean Sutton would need 4 points from their remaining 4 games and to turn around the goal difference. Tough run in but there is a chance they could get that. Let's not forget though, we have 6 games left so a couple of draws would hopefully see us home too. Think 45 points may just do it. 1 win sooner rather than later is crucial.

I’m in agreement that 46 points is likely going to be enough for survival, and in that sense the 4 points dropped in recent weeks to injury time penalties makes that all the more frustrating.

To that end, I think Saturday’s game is now a very significant one. Win and it puts us in touching distance of theoretical safety; lose and we’re even deeper in the mire of a what’s looking a very competitive relegation battle. How we’d cope with that mentally is a huge question mark.

Exciting times, I suppose.

Quoted from Poojah

I’m in agreement that 46 points is likely going to be enough for survival, and in that sense the 4 points dropped in recent weeks to injury time penalties makes that all the more frustrating.

To that end, I think Saturday’s game is now a very significant one. Win and it puts us in touching distance of theoretical safety; lose and we’re even deeper in the mire of a what’s looking a very competitive relegation battle. How we’d cope with that mentally is a huge question mark.

Exciting times, I suppose.

What made yesterday doubly annoying was Col U, FGR and Sutton all knew we were 1-0 up and were probably about to leave the changing room when they'd have been told Grimsby have conceded. It would have been a huge boost to all 3 teams.

Yeah, I think Saturday is the decider. If FGR and Sutton keep up the unlikeliest of runs (Sutton's verging on the bizarre) and we bollox it up again, then it's goodnight Charlie.

I'm pretty much resigned to it. Everything that could go wrong, has. All the luck we've had has been shite. I just don't see it changing.

People fall mostly in the positive or negative camps due to their personality,  but we haven't won at home "comfortably" for months have we so what makes you think that will change?

Sutton have got the bit between their teeth and FGR won't give up without a fight so anything can happen.

My only comfort is when we went down the first time we ran out of games despite a late rally so I hope that happens to the other two, but equally we could finish bottom.

I'm only confident we stay up due to there only being 5 games left for FGR and 4 for Sutton, if we had the same amount of games played i'd expect us to go down.

as said, the 2 home games are massive

we dont lose many away, but we've only won 1.

Swindon have the worst away form in the division and we have them to play at home.

Finishing a tight season third bottom is more exciting than a midtable finish with nothing to play for for two months. Definitely prefer not dicing with death though.

By 5 pm next Saturday could be

Grimsby…41 games, 43 points
Sutton……43………..39
Colchester 40……….38
FGR………42……….36

The mood will change enormously and we would be much more confident.

I know the players get hammered on this site, but yesterday I saw a team playing with commitment and no little skill. OK we didn’t get the killer second goal, as has often been the case, but if the referee had half a brain he would have booked two Bradford players with a second yellow and they would have been down to 9 players . Game over.

Even if all four results don’t go our way, we are capable of staying up if we play to our best, don’t give away silly goals and convert possession into goals.

Thought Eastwood did well in unfortunate circumstances.

Isn't our goal difference advantage dwindling?

I think draws have put us in this desperate position but might save us ; we need at least 1 home win and hope we can scrap to 3 or 4 draws which might put us safe .

I would take going into the Swindon game on 43/44 at this point tbh with that been a win and we stay up scenario .

The evidence of 40 games suggests we will only win 1 at best from 6 , we seem less likely to go on any sort winning streak than the other's but seem to be a 1 ppg team . We just need to hope it's enough .

I must have seen a minimum of ten points forecasts in the last month. Very detailed match by match analysis with a variety of outcomes
Trouble is, not one person predicted the current Sutton run, and nobody forecast FGR being 3 up in 25 minutes at Crewe.
There’s some weird stuff going on and the only predictable thing is that we’re awful and have negative impetus. Without analysing anything in detail my gut says we’re in deep trouble and may not have the character needed to stay up
Hope I’m wrong by the way

I’m probably more inclined to think we are going down, but I said weeks ago that the complexion would continue to change, game but game and that’s still the case and will continue to be so, especially due to the prevalence of ‘freak results’ for our opponents. You just know we’ll get turned over away at Colchester and I can see us getting tonked at Harrogate. Ditto Crewe and Crawley.
Our luck is terrible but the team is so weak defensively and we are hopelessly error prone. In my view, yesterday’s result was disastrous. We needed to win that game and should have done so, and the fact that we didn’t says everything about us.

Home games against Newport and Swindon are both winnable and 4 or 6 points might be enough from those two, but I just don’t believe we will achieve that. I don’t see anything in the evidence that suggests we are likely to score more than 1 goal a game, so any apparent goal difference advantage will soon be gone I think. Meanwhile - FGR and Sutton have started to score freely. I can see us finishing bottom, but then again, a home win on Saturday, together with one or two of the other three getting turned over and it will change the overall picture again. I can’t stand it. I think it’s disgraceful that we’re in this position yet again and I’m furious about it really.

Quoted from GrimRob

Finishing a tight season third bottom is more exciting than a midtable finish with nothing to play for for two months. Definitely prefer not dicing with death though.

That might be an end-of-season quote when you have just managed safety, but I'm passing bricks right now.

Quoted from Hagrid

as said, the 2 home games are massive

we dont lose many away, but we've only won 1.

Swindon have the worst away form in the division and we have them to play at home.

I can remember watching Town beat Swindon 3-2 in the last game of a season in the late 60’s early 70’s - Stuart Housley scored a cracker  - however, to no avail as other results went against us, and Town were relegated to Division 4.

Hopefully, the management team will use that game in their motivational team talk - win and our luck changes and we stay up.

Will there be a Harry Cardwell moment where one of our players trips over his own laces and it leads to us nicking a win?

It will all become more clear at about 10pm next Tuesday

We could be all but safe or .....

The or doesn't really bear thinking about tbh

We didn't much look like scoring yesterday.  We forced a lot of fouls from Bradford and ended up with chances to get the ball in the box but what did we do?  We squandered them by playing so slick looking free kick which invariably came to sodomist all.  We have to remember that we are playing league two opposition and pinging balls into the box might force a mistake; a handball or cruel deflection (cruel for the opposition) as was demonstrated by Obikwu's goal against Barrow.   That was the most frustrating thing about the Bradford game. I thought the FA had brought in a new rule about only get the ball into the box via throw-ins.  The second most frustrating thing was seeing Vernam on the bench at full-time.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

With Colchester having 5 of their remaining 7 matches at home and them being unbeaten at home in their last 5 matches it seems likely they will stay up.

Not so sure on that to be honest.

Stockport, Wrexham and Crewe should all have something to play for when they play them.  We definitely will do and it's only Donny who will be go into their home fixtures already on the beach.

They've ground out draws at home against those at the top (Mansfield and Walsall) but also failed to beat both Sutton and FGR on their own patch.  Only win came against Newport (who you presume will be coasting, bloody hope so ahead of Saturday).

I think our game there in a fortnight could be pivotal.  

D. Wilson (Dave scored 2) - could be a sign

Quoted from Maringer

Will there be a Harry Cardwell moment where one of our players trips over his own laces and it leads to us nicking a win?

That Cardwell assisted run at the end of the 17/18 season saw us pick up 13 points from our final 5 games.  That was off the back of a 20-game winless streak, picking up just 6 points in the process.  Going into that Chesterfield game (42nd of the season) I had absolutely no hope we would  turn it around.  Yet we survived and in the end quite comfortably.  We discovered that Mitch Rose had both a long throw and was an absolute dead-eye on penalties, as you pointed out we figured out Cardwell was great at falling over, we found out that Martyn Woolford couldn't cut it on the wing but as part of a midfield three he still had something to offer, that the energy of Harry Clifton on the right of a front three was perfect for what we needed, that bloody hell JJ Hooper on the left offered far more than he ever did down the middle.

Loads happens in the final few weeks of the season.  This season is far from over, nor is it done with twists and turns.  Someone will emerge as an unexpected hero.

Every game is of huge importance, but Saturday could be the defining match day. We have what is a winnable game at home against a team with little to play for, while the other three teams face top-5 opposition. We simply have to end the day with a bigger buffer than when we start. If we don't, I fear the writing will be on the wall.

Quoted from diehardmariner

Loads happens in the final few weeks of the season.  This season is far from over, nor is it done with twists and turns.  Someone will emerge as an unexpected hero.

I'd love it to be Eastwood.

I truly think if the linesman at Sutton hadn't been such a cheating wankshaft the momentum would have still been with us. Maybe not to beat Wrexham, but maybe get something at Barrow and 3 points yesterday. Plus that would mean we would be 4 points clear of Sutton now so another 3 more points, I believe would do it.

Clutching at straws I know but....

Quoted from Mayaman

I'd love it to be Eastwood.

That would make my day.

Quoted from bawarmy

I truly think if the linesman at Sutton hadn't been such a cheating wankshaft the momentum would have still been with us. Maybe not to beat Wrexham, but maybe get something at Barrow and 3 points yesterday. Plus that would mean we would be 4 points clear of Sutton now so another 3 more points, I believe would do it.

Clutching at straws I know but....

No, you are right. That tw*t could be decisive.

Quoted from Mayaman

I'd love it to be Eastwood.

Do you feel lucky Punk?

I think we are going to be relegated. the only straw I am clinging to is that we get Ainley, Khouri & Vernham in the starting 11 - all are creative and actually able to pass the ball

Very worrying and then if we do stay up we will need a massive turnaround for next season, that is a possibility I suppose, other teams have done it and barring a few there isn't that much difference between most of the teams in the league.

As I said on another thread we are still in a good position to stay up and our fixtures are better than the others. Obviously a terrible position overall but here we are, lessons to be learnt.

Even though we have been shite if we go down from this point we will deserve it. We "should" be ok. We still have some decent opportunities including the Colchester game. I can see why people may be worried about that one though. That could be a nightmare when it comes round.

Saturday is important but not crucial, well could be almost crucial if it goes well. A lot depends on how Sutton do but they're running out of games fast, fair play to them though. It's a good job FGR and Sutton have shared their decent form and it wasn't one going on an even longer run.

Let's just win Saturday and we can be much more confident, I agree with others that we need to be more adventurous.

Quoted from Teestogreen

I can remember watching Town beat Swindon 3-2 in the last game of a season in the late 60’s early 70’s - Stuart Housley scored a cracker  - however, to no avail as other results went against us, and Town were relegated to Division 4.

Hopefully, the management team will use that game in their motivational team talk - win and our luck changes and we stay up.

Those were tye days of league position being decided on goal average though rather than the current goal difference.

I think we need 46 points to stay up.  

I am not confident that we will beat Newport. I think a draw is a likely result, but we should beat Swindon. So we will need another two points from the other four games, all of which are away. Colchester perhaps? Not sure where else though. So I am tending towards a 45 point total for us. Which means we are sailing very close to the wind.

I think Colchester will grind out enough points from their 5 home games to stay up.

If we do stay up it will probably be thanks to FGR and Sutton having bad ends to the season. If either of them finish strongly we are going down.  

Another shocking issue is that we want and need a big clear out of players at the end of the season.  Whatever league that we are in.  Our survival this season depends on these players.

And right on cue Wrexham lose to Donny.

Quoted from diehardmariner

That Cardwell assisted run at the end of the 17/18 season saw us pick up 13 points from our final 5 games.  That was off the back of a 20-game winless streak, picking up just 6 points in the process.  Going into that Chesterfield game (42nd of the season) I had absolutely no hope we would  turn it around.  Yet we survived and in the end quite comfortably.  We discovered that Mitch Rose had both a long throw and was an absolute dead-eye on penalties, as you pointed out we figured out Cardwell was great at falling over, we found out that Martyn Woolford couldn't cut it on the wing but as part of a midfield three he still had something to offer, that the energy of Harry Clifton on the right of a front three was perfect for what we needed, that bloody hell JJ Hooper on the left offered far more than he ever did down the middle.

Loads happens in the final few weeks of the season.  This season is far from over, nor is it done with twists and turns.  Someone will emerge as an unexpected hero.

Eastwood & Glennon maybe ? Both with a point to prove and both will benefit massively from the change in system since they were last regulars in the team.

We really need our best players to deliver now, and Vernam is clearly one of them so he needs to be given more game time on Saturday. Either start or come on early in the second half. I think Wilson should be given a chance early on too.

If we could just manage to win, it would transform our prospects. If we are on 43 points on Saturday night we are half way to safety I think, with a win against Swindon probably sealing the deal whatever our other results.

Our best chance of 3 pts in this run in was lost when we never went for it against a very poor Bradford side .I can't believe Newport or Swindon could be as bad .So feel we will be lucky to get a couple of draws in the final 6 games .

It feels like Saturday has to be the day the tide changes.

A “winnable” home game… Admittedly, famous last words.

While, the three teams below us have tough games on paper.

I’ve a real fear, the writing might be on the wall. That was a gut-wrenching way to drop points on Monday & will have knocked a team already low on confidence.

However, I still firmly believe we probably are only six points away. One win and that changes everything.

UTM