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Pre Match Interview

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heppy88
February 23, 2024, 12:02pm
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I've tried numerous times to embed the latest YouTube pre match interview, but I give in!
Any chance someone could do it for me?

Anyway, as for the interview (Yes guilty of cherry picking here):

He believes the players are in a good place mentally.

The results will turn.

The underlying performance in a large part of the game is good. Data backs that up.

We know the players are improving, because the data backs it up.

Creating lots of chances but not taking as much as we need to.

We've improved in lots of areas.

We were by far the better team, first half on Saturday.

Him and Shaun went to see Morecambe in the week. Although they got beat 3 - 0 they (Morecambe) were by far the better team. Without a shadow of a doubt they (Morecambe) were the better team. Reiterated this several times even though they were beat 3 - 0.

He knows Grimsby aren't that far off. Small margins.

We are not in as bad a place as everyone makes out.

After listening to the interview, Mrs Heppy, not known for her footballing knowledge, stood up and said "That Man's deluded, away with the fairies!". Got to say I can't disagree.
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davmariner
February 23, 2024, 12:05pm
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Up The Mariners!
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heppy88
February 23, 2024, 12:09pm
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Thanks, davmariner. Any chance you could DM me with a quick tutorial. As I've tried following the instructions that have been put on, but I only get a load of text and no video?
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friskneymariner
February 23, 2024, 12:10pm

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He has lost all sense of reality,surely even he doesn't believe the rubbish he is saying.


Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day,teach a man to fish and you give him an excuse for him to escape from the wife and kids for the weekend and drink lots of beer.
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Mappers
February 23, 2024, 12:13pm
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Something and nothing

Would rather hear his reasoning behind Hunt leaving , less than 3 months after Artell said he would be pivotal to what he's trying to do . Want the answer on Thompson to - injured or out of favour ?

Will there be no Humberside interviews now?
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GrimRob
February 23, 2024, 12:15pm

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Quoted from heppy88
Thanks, davmariner. Any chance you could DM me with a quick tutorial. As I've tried following the instructions that have been put on, but I only get a load of text and no video?


Just paste the URL in. The Fishy will turn it into an embedded video


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

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Theimperialcoroner
February 23, 2024, 12:17pm

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Quoted from GrimRob


Just paste the URL in. The Fishy will turn it into an embedded video


Can you confirm or deny Rob that this is done via use of Fishy Voodoo?


Batch, Crombie, Moore K, Wiggington, Cumming, Waters, Bonnyman, Ford, Emson, Drinkell, Whymark. Love you all, You are the reason I'm on here. You've had help from Todd, Handyside, Futcher P, Groves, Mendonca, Macca etc etc etc. Up The Mariners!!!!!!!!!
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lew chaterleys lover
February 23, 2024, 12:22pm
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It's like being in a parallel universe and I am one desperate for him to succeed.

We're losing heavily at home to relegation rivals, but the data shows our xg has improved. Right.

Morecambe lost 3 nil at Walsall but the data showed Morecambe were the better side.

Data shows we are doing well in all sorts of areas...apart from the results, obviously.

Teams have always lost games they deserved something from, and won others after being outplayed,  but so what? You will still get relegated if actual results don't improve.

This obsession with data is worse than I thought. Are we playing the game on grass or a spreadsheet?

No wonder he was Stockwood's first choice.
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mariner91
February 23, 2024, 12:23pm
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That is the most alarming interview I think any of our managers have ever given. I’d be less concerned if he’d come out said David Icke talks a lot of sense.
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GrimRob
February 23, 2024, 12:26pm

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Here is the summary

00:00 The mood and performance of the team
    * Bruised after losing games
    * Shown data to boost confidence
    * Creating chances but not scoring enough
    * Need to improve in both boxes

03:21 The expectations and analysis of Morecambe
    * A good team with a transitional style
    * Could have gone in the playoffs
    * Have some weaknesses to exploit
    * Beat them 3-2 in the reverse fixture

05:13 The impact of a positive result
    * Breeds positivity and energy
    * Not in as bad place as everyone thinks
    * Working hard and believing
    * Need to come out on the right side of big moments


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

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MuddyWaters
February 23, 2024, 12:28pm
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Will someone please point out that the important bit of data is the league table?
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davmariner
February 23, 2024, 12:30pm
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Quoted from heppy88
Thanks, davmariner. Any chance you could DM me with a quick tutorial. As I've tried following the instructions that have been put on, but I only get a load of text and no video?


Yes as Rob says I just pasted the link and The Fishy did the rest.


Up The Mariners!
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Poojah
February 23, 2024, 12:38pm
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Ultimately, he’s trying to paint a picture of a five course dinner with a pallete full of dog turd. What else can he do with arguably the bleakest sequence of results in the club’s 146 year history?


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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louth_in_the_south
February 23, 2024, 12:41pm

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Well that’s given me a much needed boost of reality .
Let’s hope the fooking data gives us 3 points tomorrow.


Lower F5
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drbell
February 23, 2024, 12:43pm
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If anyone on this forum were the manager right now, of a team low on confidence, in need of results, knowing the players you have are the only ones you can work with, so you need to motivate them, help them believe they are good enough and success is quite possible, even probable, with hard work, what would you say?

Regardless of whether DA will or won't have success, I simply don't understand what people want him to say that's different that will actually help the team succeed (which is far more important than saying anything us fans might want to hear, or believe is the reality).

He's saying what the players need to hear him say.

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Mandy Dunnit vs Hettie
February 23, 2024, 12:47pm

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It’s ok though because our ‘expected goals’ position has gone up to 11th! Can’t quite see where this is reflected on our league table stats but surely this will be vital come the end of the season?…
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jimgtfc
February 23, 2024, 12:48pm
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First minute; “performance in large parts of the game is good, the data backs that up”… erm no Dave


"Falls to Arnold... Arnold! That's it! Thats it! He's sealed it! Grimsby Town are back in the football league!!! Just a minute to go and Nathan Arnold makes it 3-1! Look at the scenes behind the goal! Look at the relief! The agony is finally over!!!"

John Tondeur - Wembley Stadium Sunday 15th May 2016
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heppy88
February 23, 2024, 12:52pm
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Quoted from davmariner


Yes as Rob says I just pasted the link and The Fishy did the rest.


Great, thanks to you both.
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Mappers
February 23, 2024, 12:52pm
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Quoted from drbell
If anyone on this forum were the manager right now, of a team low on confidence, in need of results, knowing the players you have are the only ones you can work with, so you need to motivate them, help them believe they are good enough and success is quite possible, even probable, with hard work, what would you say?

Regardless of whether DA will or won't have success, I simply don't understand what people want him to say that's different that will actually help the team succeed (which is far more important than saying anything us fans might want to hear, or believe is the reality).

He's saying what the players need to hear him say.



He's shaped the one's he can work with and IMO made us weaker by doing so losing 3 players (Amos,Waterfall and Efete) who although not great , solid league 2 'character' players who you would have in the trenches ; they wouldn't get you relegated from league 2 playing to their strengths - the dice he's thrown on replacing them might .

He doesn't seem the best man manager - he told us how great Hunt and Khan are yet can't work with them for more than 5 minutes  .

I don't 'hate' Artell he might be the nicest guy in the world .
But he's doing nothing good for our club imo . I'm worried he takes us beyond savable .

I can honestly see in 6 games time us in a total mess, with him saying the exact same thing pre-match  .

I think the guy is a liability
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geir
February 23, 2024, 12:53pm

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I don't like betting against Grimsby Town, but in Norway, I get a return of 2.15 times the money if Morecambe wins. I won't be too upset if I lose the bet if Grimsby wins - which is very likely, as I usually bet the opposite of the correct result.


My non-football related blog: http://geirmykl.wordpress.com/
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arryarryarry
February 23, 2024, 12:56pm
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Quoted from drbell
If anyone on this forum were the manager right now, of a team low on confidence, in need of results, knowing the players you have are the only ones you can work with, so you need to motivate them, help them believe they are good enough and success is quite possible, even probable, with hard work, what would you say?

Regardless of whether DA will or won't have success, I simply don't understand what people want him to say that's different that will actually help the team succeed (which is far more important than saying anything us fans might want to hear, or believe is the reality).

He's saying what the players need to hear him say.



I wouldn't expect a manager to try and bullshit the fans.

It's obvious we are playing crap, everyone can see that, all he has to say is we understand where we are and we will try to improve.
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Balthazar Bullitt
February 23, 2024, 12:58pm

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It’s ok though because our ‘expected goals’ position has gone up to 11th! Can’t quite see where this is reflected on our league table stats but surely this will be vital come the end of the season?…


I think he has a point. If we actually increase the amount of our XG being converted into goals whilst simultaneously reducing the oppositions converted XG conversions we will start to win games. Sadly missing from the conversation is the average distance our players are from the opposition when they're in our penalty area - if we can reduce this by a factor of around 1000 then we might be alright. In order to achieve this we're going to need to do some coaching though.
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Mariner_501
February 23, 2024, 1:08pm
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Artell says the data shows we are improving so it’s fine that we lost 4-1 to a the 20th best team at home
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HerveJosse
February 23, 2024, 1:12pm
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It’s not our XG that’s the problem it’s the fact that the opposition only have to cross the halfway line a few times to waltz through our midfield and defence and score . Dont know what the data abbreviation is for that. GM Gone Missing?
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gytone
February 23, 2024, 1:17pm
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Aren't Humberside allowed interviews anymore ? They might have asked more pertinent questions.
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jimgtfc
February 23, 2024, 1:19pm
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Quoted from Mariner_501
Artell says the data shows we are improving so it’s fine that we lost 4-1 to a the 20th best team at home


5-1 wasn’t it? Yep worse than you thought


"Falls to Arnold... Arnold! That's it! Thats it! He's sealed it! Grimsby Town are back in the football league!!! Just a minute to go and Nathan Arnold makes it 3-1! Look at the scenes behind the goal! Look at the relief! The agony is finally over!!!"

John Tondeur - Wembley Stadium Sunday 15th May 2016
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GrimPol
February 23, 2024, 1:27pm
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Quoted from heppy88
Thanks, davmariner. Any chance you could DM me with a quick tutorial. As I've tried following the instructions that have been put on, but I only get a load of text and no video?


We could all have a tutorial I've given up.
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ex-merseymariner
February 23, 2024, 1:28pm

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Quoted from Balthazar Bullitt


I think he has a point. If we actually increase the amount of our XG being converted into goals whilst simultaneously reducing the oppositions converted XG conversions we will start to win games. Sadly missing from the conversation is the average distance our players are from the opposition when they're in our penalty area - if we can reduce this by a factor of around 1000 then we might be alright. In order to achieve this we're going to need to do some coaching though.


There were plenty of players back for the 3rd goal last week, its just one stopped running leaving our left back outnumbered 2 to 1 and Artell hasn't addressed basic poor defending like that.  

So odd that our captain defends from the front but other attacking players don't.  But if they can get away with it.... let's see if this changes Saturday.





#newera;   New owners, new approach;  'we bought Grimsby Town to help renew the place we love'  
Join the Trust, get involved: UP THE MARINERS!  
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GrimRob
February 23, 2024, 1:30pm

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Quoted from Balthazar Bullitt


I think he has a point. If we actually increase the amount of our XG being converted into goals whilst simultaneously reducing the oppositions converted XG conversions we will start to win games. Sadly missing from the conversation is the average distance our players are from the opposition when they're in our penalty area - if we can reduce this by a factor of around 1000 then we might be alright. In order to achieve this we're going to need to do some coaching though.


xG only tells half the story though. Take the Stockport game, they scored 3 goals and were coasting. We pulled one back and then they shut up shop, took off forwards and made defensive substitutions. They were more interested in securing 3 points. Had they wanted to they could have scored more goals. Even if you look at the xG of both sides it gives a false impression.

He has a point to some extent in last week's game because Doncaster scored with almost every chance they had and we missed two chances at the end of the first half and one in the second, but again data doesn't tell you about the body language of the players.


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

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Tommy
February 23, 2024, 1:30pm
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Don't see a lot wrong with the interview personally.

What can he really come out and say? "Yeah the players have been rubbish lately, we're in real trouble and need to be loads better" ??? Of course he's not going to come out and say that.

He's got to put some sort of positive spin on it, definitely to the players which is why he explained how he'd shown some performance stats to the players to try and raise morale a bit by showing them some bits they've done well.

Managers don't always tell the truth in interviews or say the same as what they say behind closed doors to the squad. PH got hammered for always being too negative in interviews, and Artell gets hammered for being too positive.

This is not a post in defence of Artell, I'd have had his P45 ready by Last Sunday morning by the way. But I think the desperation for him to be sacked can lead to some nit-picking just to get some extra criticism in. This sounded like a run-of-the-mill pre-match interview of a struggling team I thought.

I absolutely am worried about the next 2 games and where we could be after them. But I'm not particularly worried about what DA says in these mandatory interviews.


"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one."
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GrimRob
February 23, 2024, 1:33pm

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Quoted from drbell
If anyone on this forum were the manager right now, of a team low on confidence, in need of results, knowing the players you have are the only ones you can work with, so you need to motivate them, help them believe they are good enough and success is quite possible, even probable, with hard work, what would you say?

Regardless of whether DA will or won't have success, I simply don't understand what people want him to say that's different that will actually help the team succeed (which is far more important than saying anything us fans might want to hear, or believe is the reality).

He's saying what the players need to hear him say.



Yes, he's doing the right thing, as he will do because he won't resign. I think most people would argue he shouldn't be given the opportunity as they have lost faith in him. Do the players still believe in him? I think many people think not.


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

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Mappers
February 23, 2024, 1:44pm
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chipsandgravy
February 23, 2024, 1:50pm
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Ended up turning it off. However for balance I have turned off the interviews when we've won as well. Can't relate to him whatsoever but hope he can turn it round.
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Mariner_501
February 23, 2024, 1:51pm
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Quoted from jimgtfc


5-1 wasn’t it? Yep worse than you thought


Bloody hell that’s depressing. I must have lost count. Cheers for the reminder!
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davmariner
February 23, 2024, 2:05pm
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He was a bit better in the Humberside interview in fairness.


Up The Mariners!
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lew chaterleys lover
February 23, 2024, 2:50pm
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He says our xg has improved a lot as we drop like a stone, and then says Salford are on a good run because their xg has improved.

I would gleam from that it is all a load of balderdash.
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Marinerdeano
February 23, 2024, 2:59pm
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Look, did I feel he needed to go after the Donny game? Yes
Has he gone? No
So I've got 2 options, bang that particular drum, pick everything he says apart and moan or support us each and every week in what is a critical time, where sadly once again we need our 12th man for difficult reasons.
One thing that I'm sure ourselves, Artell and Stockwood all agree on is that we collectively want to succeed. I am concerned about what we are producing under Artell but trust the judgement of our owners who have pretty much rescued our club let's face it.
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arryarryarry
February 23, 2024, 3:08pm
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Quoted from Marinerdeano
Look, did I feel he needed to go after the Donny game? Yes
Has he gone? No
So I've got 2 options, bang that particular drum, pick everything he says apart and moan or support us each and every week in what is a critical time, where sadly once again we need our 12th man for difficult reasons.
One thing that I'm sure ourselves, Artell and Stockwood all agree on is that we collectively want to succeed. I am concerned about what we are producing under Artell but trust the judgement of our owners who have pretty much rescued our club let's face it.


Erm...........the crowd did get behind the team at the start of the Donny game but before we could get up a chant of Mariners Mariners Mariners we were 2-0 down.

It's now time for the manager and team to really give us something to shout about.
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BrMarin
February 23, 2024, 3:09pm
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Did he say anything about Thompson?
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Maringer
February 23, 2024, 3:15pm
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He says our xg has improved a lot as we drop like a stone, and then says Salford are on a good run because their xg has improved.

I would gleam from that it is all a load of balderdash.


Well, not exactly.

A better xG should certainly lead to a team scoring more goals (and both Clifton and Green missed sitters in the first half last week), but it's not guaranteed.

Scoring the goals isn't really so much of an issue at present. The problem is the Keystone Kops defending which we're seeing most weeks. I'd bet that the xG for teams who have been playing us this year has been quite high and it's not much to do with how they have been playing.
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Southwark Mariner
February 23, 2024, 3:19pm
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Quoted from BrMarin
Did he say anything about Thompson?


Said he had an injury/ niggle

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Marinerdeano
February 23, 2024, 3:22pm
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Quoted from arryarryarry


Erm...........the crowd did get behind the team at the start of the Donny game but before we could get up a chant of Mariners Mariners Mariners we were 2-0 down.

It's now time for the manager and team to really give us something to shout about.


Oh absolutely agree. I'm not disputing that.
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GrimPol
February 23, 2024, 3:28pm
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Quoted from Mariner_501


Bloody hell that’s depressing. I must have lost count. Cheers for the reminder!


They said in the old Navy that after the fourth Cat O Nine Tails lash, the pain couldn't get worse. Maybe its the same thing with you.
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arryarryarry
February 23, 2024, 3:31pm
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Quoted from Maringer


Well, not exactly.

A better xG should certainly lead to a team scoring more goals (and both Clifton and Green missed sitters in the first half last week), but it's not guaranteed.

Scoring the goals isn't really so much of an issue at present. The problem is the Keystone Kops defending which we're seeing most weeks. I'd bet that the xG for teams who have been playing us this year has been quite high and it's not much to do with how they have been playing.


Artell mentioned something about the two sitters but they came in the same passage of play, if Clifton had scored Green wouldn't have had the chance.
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lew chaterleys lover
February 23, 2024, 3:31pm
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Quoted from Maringer


Well, not exactly.

A better xG should certainly lead to a team scoring more goals (and both Clifton and Green missed sitters in the first half last week), but it's not guaranteed.

Scoring the goals isn't really so much of an issue at present. The problem is the Keystone Kops defending which we're seeing most weeks. I'd bet that the xG for teams who have been playing us this year has been quite high and it's not much to do with how they have been playing.


Should, could and maybes. You do realise it has no effect on the actual score? The next game  will be totally different so it won't have any effect on that either.
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Mappers
February 23, 2024, 3:36pm
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Quoted from BrMarin
Did he say anything about Thompson?


Injured

He answered the Alex Hunt question well I thought and explained the rationale behind his decision to let him leave on loan , seems he's a big part of Artell's plans next season .....
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HertsGTFC
February 23, 2024, 3:41pm

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Is the “underlying performance” good?

Club interviews are never going to be a challenge are they?


"Crombie you would have got to that if you weren't such a fat ba%$@rd" - George Kerr, inspiration from the dug out 70s style  
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Mappers
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Quoted from HertsGTFC
Is the “underlying performance” good?

Club interviews are never going to be a challenge are they?


The BBC one is better  mate 20 minutes long, I thought he came over the best he has tbf at least gave some explanation on decision making with regards Hunt.
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Maringer
February 23, 2024, 3:48pm
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Should, could and maybes. You do realise it has no effect on the actual score? The next game  will be totally different so it won't have any effect on that either.


But, in general, the number of good chances you create (xG), indicates how likely it is that you will score a goal. If you create more good chances, you are likely to score more goals. You surely can't deny that?

It's obviously not the be-all and end-all, but it is important. We've spent years bemoaning the fact that Hurst's teams didn't score enough goals and this would obviously have shown through in xG calculations (if we were looking at them back then).

On the other hand, a capable and well-drilled defence should be able to reduce the xG of the opposing team. If you can accept that it is possible to defend well enough to stop the opposition team having a sniff, surely you can accept that a team can attack well enough to create more goalscoring chances? All that xG does is give an indication that a team is creating good chances and a low xG doesn't mean that the opposition isn't able to whack in a 40-yarder to win a game with their only shot on goal.

I certainly wouldn't be basing all training around increasing xG as Artell has indicated he might actually be doing (!), but it certainly has its uses.
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Maringer
February 23, 2024, 3:51pm
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Quoted from arryarryarry


Artell mentioned something about the two sitters but they came in the same passage of play, if Clifton had scored Green wouldn't have had the chance.


I don't think that's true, is it? Didn't Green hit the ball straight at their keeper who caught it? Clifton's chance was close to that one, but I don't think it was the same passage of play. Can't remember too clearly these days due to memory problems caused by a medical issue, but that's my impression! I don't want to look back at the highlights as it was too depressing the first time around...
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lew chaterleys lover
February 23, 2024, 3:55pm
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Quoted from Maringer


But, in general, the number of good chances you create (xG), indicates how likely it is that you will score a goal. If you create more good chances, you are likely to score more goals. You surely can't deny that?

It's obviously not the be-all and end-all, but it is important. We've spent years bemoaning the fact that Hurst's teams didn't score enough goals and this would obviously have shown through in xG calculations (if we were looking at them back then).

On the other hand, a capable and well-drilled defence should be able to reduce the xG of the opposing team. If you can accept that it is possible to defend well enough to stop the opposition team having a sniff, surely you can accept that a team can attack well enough to create more goalscoring chances? All that xG does is give an indication that a team is creating good chances and a low xG doesn't mean that the opposition isn't able to whack in a 40-yarder to win a game with their only shot on goal.

I certainly wouldn't be basing all training around increasing xG as Artell has indicated he might actually be doing (!), but it certainly has its uses.


It's all nonsense. As Grim Rob pointed out earlier the ability to create or defend goals is largely dependent on the state of the individual game. Had Stockport not taken their foot off the pedal all the stats for that game would be different. All it is an in depth statistical review of what's happened, but it has no  bearing on what happens next.
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GrimRob
February 23, 2024, 4:01pm

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Quoted from arryarryarry


Artell mentioned something about the two sitters but they came in the same passage of play, if Clifton had scored Green wouldn't have had the chance.


Another reason why xG is a misleading metric.


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
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grassbandits
February 23, 2024, 4:16pm
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I'm not sure how much I'd be pleased our XG has improved if it means we're shipping buckets at the same time.
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Swansea_Mariner
February 23, 2024, 4:19pm
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Cognitive disonnense,  we were battered by Doncaster but we were by far the better side. Ok we get it and start smiling again.

Maybe eyeballs are faulty and the data is right, I feel like I've entered a parallel universe.
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DB
February 23, 2024, 4:20pm
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I thought his first interview was a case of bullish!t baffles brains, particularly when he talked of losing by fine margins ( now where I have I heard that before? ). Apparently, we have been losing by fine margins 6 -1, 5 - 1 etc. and we beat Morecambe at home by a fine margin of 3 - 2. He makes a ridiculous example of fine margins and where did he get that we should have gone in 4 - 2 up at halftime against Donny? Bloody hell it was a peno we scored and nothing from open play.

Matt Dean's interview was only slightly better as he did explain the Hunt situation. Let's hope that tomorrow's game is better considering both he and Shaun watched the Walsall game.


You can please some of the forumites some of the time but not all the forumites all of the time
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HertsGTFC
February 23, 2024, 4:33pm

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Caught them both now and actually to be fair to Artell I think the rationale behind Hunt makes sense, though I'd be concerned if we picked up a couple of MF injuries.


"Crombie you would have got to that if you weren't such a fat ba%$@rd" - George Kerr, inspiration from the dug out 70s style  
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Lincoln Mariner 56
February 23, 2024, 4:47pm
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Quoted from Maringer


I don't think that's true, is it? Didn't Green hit the ball straight at their keeper who caught it? Clifton's chance was close to that one, but I don't think it was the same passage of play. Can't remember too clearly these days due to memory problems caused by a medical issue, but that's my impression! I don't want to look back at the highlights as it was too depressing the first time around...


Pretty much as I remember it as well and thought Clifton missed the goal completely but. I was probably too busy cursing to see where his feeble effort ended up.

This point though actually raises a much deeper debate as if either chance is scored whatever occurs afterwards is totally different to what actually happened. The game is restarted at a different point thus every touch which then takes place is different to what actually occurred as everyone is in different positions plays a different pass etc.

One for the theoretical gifted or maybe we need data saying if you score from your first chance rather than miss it how many of the later chances would in reality have been created. Think this supports Lew’s dislike of data as scoring goals may actually reduce your XG whereas missing chances may increase it!,

Anyway given me an headache just typing this eye opening revelation and all because Clifton missed a sitter!!
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Yoda
February 23, 2024, 4:57pm
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I have watched a few old youtube videos of DA and he doesn’t come across well at all how he interviewed well for us i don’t know. I think he looks a floundering baffoon surely they must of interviewed some other candidates or did they.
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BrMarin
February 23, 2024, 5:12pm
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Quoted from Yoda
I have watched a few old youtube videos of DA and he doesn’t come across well at all how he interviewed well for us i don’t know. I think he looks a floundering baffoon surely they must of interviewed some other candidates or did they.


I'd love to know who was interviewed 🙂
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Mappers
February 23, 2024, 5:26pm
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Quoted from BrMarin


I'd love to know who was interviewed 🙂


Steve Morrison who isn't doing particularly well at Sutton

Talks with The Cowleys (confirmed by them) but not sure if that was official or just informal .

Don't know any others
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lew chaterleys lover
February 23, 2024, 5:38pm
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Quoted from Lincoln Mariner 56


Pretty much as I remember it as well and thought Clifton missed the goal completely but. I was probably too busy cursing to see where his feeble effort ended up.

This point though actually raises a much deeper debate as if either chance is scored whatever occurs afterwards is totally different to what actually happened. The game is restarted at a different point thus every touch which then takes place is different to what actually occurred as everyone is in different positions plays a different pass etc.

One for the theoretical gifted or maybe we need data saying if you score from your first chance rather than miss it how many of the later chances would in reality have been created. Think this supports Lew’s dislike of data as scoring goals may actually reduce your XG whereas missing chances may increase it!,

Anyway given me an headache just typing this eye opening revelation and all because Clifton missed a sitter!!


Exactly - you can interpret it any way you like, to prove any point you like and is ideal for taking the heat out of having been tonked once again on home turf, by saying such and such a stat actually showed we should have had the 3 points, honest 'guv.

If the xg is "very good" but we also ship goals for fun a reasonable conclusion would be the side isn't functioning at all well. But then you conclude if we tighten up at the back we will be fine, but then the chances dry up at the other end because tightening up changes the dynamic of the team which is why we were creating the chances. On and on you go down the rabbit hole of stats trying to make sense of it all, but it's a waste of time anyway because the dynamics of next weeks game is completely different.

Dave Challinor without the use of any data could improve our side overnight by getting the balance of the moving parts right.
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arryarryarry
February 23, 2024, 5:47pm
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Quoted from Maringer


I don't think that's true, is it? Didn't Green hit the ball straight at their keeper who caught it? Clifton's chance was close to that one, but I don't think it was the same passage of play. Can't remember too clearly these days due to memory problems caused by a medical issue, but that's my impression! I don't want to look back at the highlights as it was too depressing the first time around...


Yes apologies, it was Green's chance first but the keeper saved it then he and a defender tried to play it out from the back, we intercepted it and put the ball through to Clifton who pushed it wide, all within about 30 seconds I think so effectively if Green had scored Clifton's chance would not have happened so it would never have been 3-2 to us at that point.
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Limerick Mariner
February 23, 2024, 6:03pm
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Quoted from arryarryarry


Yes apologies, it was Green's chance first but the keeper saved it then he and a defender tried to play it out from the back, we intercepted it and put the ball through to Clifton who pushed it wide, all within about 30 seconds I think so effectively if Green had scored Clifton's chance would not have happened so it would never have been 3-2 to us at that point.


Green slots it, back at 2-2 Donny then fall apart hit by wave after wave of Crewe 20/21 style Total Football…then DA wakes up a bit moist and sticky, whereas all PH ever dreamt about was winning 1-0 away at Bradford with us rock solid 5-4-1 shape…which wet dream do us fans want our manager to have…

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kafunanapar140909
February 23, 2024, 6:04pm

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I’m obviously in the minority but I thought that was one of DA’s best interviews since he came to the club. As has already been mentioned, he’s hardly going to come out with a rousing rendition of “we’re sh*t and we know we are” – he has to try and motivate this group and get them believing that they’re better than they are. Whether we like it or not, it is this group we’re stuck with until the end of the season and so it’s this group whose responsibility it is to get us out of this mess.

For a man overseeing a remarkably poor sequence of results, imo he seemed calm, gave measured answers and backed up his position pretty well, in the face of some decent questions by Matt Dean.

The explanation around Hunt was very good, and made a good stab at proving that he is able to identify a weakness (xG) and improve it (going from 20th to 11th in the table in that metric). He also started to point to improvements in our defending which was… err… brave, but I thought even that was a pretty good attempt.

Interesting we had a big data meeting with 21st Group this week. I wonder if that was a bit of a “prove that what you’re claiming re improvements is backed up in the data” thing from the board, similar to what Hurst went through before? Annoyingly, we don’t have access to the depth of data that the club does, and so us lot have to slum it with the basics.
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arryarryarry
February 23, 2024, 6:29pm
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Quoted from kafunanapar140909
I’m obviously in the minority but I thought that was one of DA’s best interviews since he came to the club. As has already been mentioned, he’s hardly going to come out with a rousing rendition of “we’re sh*t and we know we are” – he has to try and motivate this group and get them believing that they’re better than they are. Whether we like it or not, it is this group we’re stuck with until the end of the season and so it’s this group whose responsibility it is to get us out of this mess.

For a man overseeing a remarkably poor sequence of results, imo he seemed calm, gave measured answers and backed up his position pretty well, in the face of some decent questions by Matt Dean.

The explanation around Hunt was very good, and made a good stab at proving that he is able to identify a weakness (xG) and improve it (going from 20th to 11th in the table in that metric). He also started to point to improvements in our defending which was… err… brave, but I thought even that was a pretty good attempt.

Interesting we had a big data meeting with 21st Group this week. I wonder if that was a bit of a “prove that what you’re claiming re improvements is backed up in the data” thing from the board, similar to what Hurst went through before? Annoyingly, we don’t have access to the depth of data that the club does, and so us lot have to slum it with the basics.


I have no idea what xg data is or any other data that is showing we have improved all I see is us getting stuffed most weekends and lying 3rd from bottom of the EFL.
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chaos33
February 23, 2024, 6:29pm
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If you can’t  defend and you don’t know what you’re doing and you’re not concentrating and motivated the stats count for f*ck all. That’s what’s going on. We need to face it and change it, starting tomorrow.


"You should do what you love while you can"
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Swansea_Mariner
February 23, 2024, 6:46pm
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Quoted from arryarryarry


I have no idea what xg data is or any other data that is showing we have improved all I see is us getting stuffed most weekends and lying 3rd from bottom of the EFL.


I mean it's likely utter nonsense but ya know alchemists gotta get paid so there we go we're improving. I guess we'll see if the proofs in the pudding tomorrow, but even if we don't we'll be told that the data says we should have picked up 12 points from 18.
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pontoonlew
February 23, 2024, 6:56pm
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Been another overreaction to the interview but it’s to be expected now.

He’s right in a lot of what he says, but some of needs to actually start coming true instead of being just words.

We probably are creating more chances, we probably are conceding goals we shouldn’t and we probably should’ve picked up more points. However, we keep getting hammered. If the stats are correct, then results SHOULD follow, but it’s a very precarious position he finds himself in right now.

What doesn’t help though is fans ripping it to bits every week for the sake of it. If we pick up points away from home tomorrow, part of our disasterous home performances (for 2 seasons) might be able to be explained quite well…
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jamesgtfc
February 23, 2024, 7:09pm
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The fact Doncaster scored 5, despite their xG being less than 0.5 last week tells you everything you need to know about us and that metric. Stop overcomplicating it.
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grimsby pete
February 23, 2024, 7:11pm

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I really want DA to do well but he is doing my head with all his waffle.

I don't know how we managed years ago before all this data was used.

Yes we were the better side but lost 5-1 ?????

Or we are the better side but lost 6-1  .  Morecambe were the better side by miles the other night but lost 3-0.

Well I hoped we are rubbish tomorrow and Morecambe play really well.

Then we will come away with 3 points  


                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
                             68 Years following the Town

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ska face
February 23, 2024, 7:15pm

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What happened to that GTFC stats lunatic on twitter who used to die weekly on the xG hill then just blocked everyone? Is he still posting on there or employed by the club now?
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ginnywings
February 23, 2024, 7:20pm

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I just think we are cursed, and I am in no way superstitious.

It seems like for the last 2 or 3 seasons, almost every shot the opposition hit, somehow ends up in the back of the net. Every long range shot arrows into the top or bottom corner, and I have a vision of a succession of keepers fishing the ball out of the net with alarming regularity.

Can't remember the last time I wasn't worried about conceding every time the away team cross the half way line.
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Heswall Mariner
February 23, 2024, 7:21pm

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Quoted from arryarryarry


I have no idea what xg data is or any other data that is showing we have improved all I see is us getting stuffed most weekends and lying 3rd from bottom of the EFL.


Have to agree here - it's all smoke & mirrors to me - xg data is akin to the Hans Christian Andersson fairy tale where it took a simple young lad in the crowd to see that the the king was naked despite assurances from his expensive tailors that he was a leader in fashion & the dogs balderdash.
Apologies to those who don't have a clue what this old fart is rambling on about. UTM.
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jamesgtfc
February 23, 2024, 7:22pm
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Quoted from ska face
What happened to that GTFC stats lunatic on twitter who used to die weekly on the xG hill then just blocked everyone? Is he still posting on there or employed by the club now?


I began to think that he had recently been employed as our Head Coach, until I realised that our Head Coach released Efete which that person would have considered to be an act of racism.
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chaos33
February 23, 2024, 7:24pm
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The man is conning himself and conning everyone else.
Lose tomorrow and he must go. I’m an open minded person, and I work in an environment where data-led decisions matter, but 90% of what he’s saying is delusional, deflective babbling fu*king nonsense.


"You should do what you love while you can"
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MuddyWaters
February 23, 2024, 7:40pm
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Quoted from pontoonlew
Been another overreaction to the interview but it’s to be expected now.

He’s right in a lot of what he says, but some of needs to actually start coming true instead of being just words.

We probably are creating more chances, we probably are conceding goals we shouldn’t and we probably should’ve picked up more points. However, we keep getting hammered. If the stats are correct, then results SHOULD follow, but it’s a very precarious position he finds himself in right now.

What doesn’t help though is fans ripping it to bits every week for the sake of it. If we pick up points away from home tomorrow, part of our disasterous home performances (for 2 seasons) might be able to be explained quite well…


Should be able to win every game next season if the metrics keep improving. Pity it’ll be against the likes of Dorking.

The biggest worry is that he’s already talking to players who are out of contract in the summer.
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pen penfras
February 23, 2024, 7:50pm

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Quoted from Maringer


But, in general, the number of good chances you create (xG), indicates how likely it is that you will score a goal. If you create more good chances, you are likely to score more goals. You surely can't deny that?
.


xG is a prime example of data being used to fit a narrative that is wrong. xG is based on averages, how often a chance of a certain quality results in a goal on average. But of course on average better players score that chance more often than worse players.

So having worse players, you'd expect us to have a higher xG than goals. The same for expected goals against.

The data isn't saying that we're doing better than the results show, it's saying that our players are excrement
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forza ivano
February 23, 2024, 7:50pm

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It's like he lives in a parallel universe, where we are comfortably mid table, n it just needs a couple of tweaks n we could be up there. Says we should be scoring more, well,we we are not
We are conceding more than the stats say we should. Well we are. We ate conceding wonder goals, which wont happen every week. Well we are.
No mention of 1 win in over 2 months, no mention of being dicked heavily every week  no mention of being bottom.of the form.table, no mention of the bottom 2 slowly but surely catching us up, no mention of us sleepwalking to a 3rd relegation. The man is feckin deluded
I despair
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IlkleyMariner
February 23, 2024, 7:55pm
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I’m not being indecisive, just can’t make up my mind whether we have crap players playing crap or underperforming good players. Or simply confused players with a manager trying to introduce new ideas.

I keep going back to Bradford City away when for a fleeting moment we were in second place in the league. Frustrating ain’t it?

Anyway I hope my data shows a comfortable away victory tomorrow….at least I’ll be there with an objective pal who supports Huddersfield Town. I can rely on his assessment whatever the result.
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GrimPol
February 23, 2024, 7:56pm
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Quoted from Heswall Mariner


Have to agree here - it's all smoke & mirrors to me - xg data is akin to the Hans Christian Andersson fairy tale where it took a simple young lad in the crowd to see that the the king was naked despite assurances from his expensive tailors that he was a leader in fashion & the dogs balderdash.
Apologies to those who don't have a clue what this old fart is rambling on about. UTM.


If DA and the Club actually said , "we played really rubbish, and must do better" we would not be consoled, but we wouldn't/couldn't argue with them. But no they say they played well, and things are on the up, and the fans don't know what they are talking about. And if they repeat this mantra with a straight face, the fans will one by one back  down as the inverse, upside down logic regurgtated at you wears you down and you give up. You see if the Expensive Tailors, told the lad he would get a thick ear and sent to bed without any supper, the King would be still parading naked.
The old adage of BBB Bovinedroppings Baffle Brains still is practised and doing well at 21st Group.
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pen penfras
February 23, 2024, 8:00pm

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Quoted from IlkleyMariner
I’m not being indecisive, just can’t make up my mind whether we have crap players playing crap or underperforming good players. Or simply confused players with a manager trying to introduce new ideas.

I keep going back to Bradford City away when for a fleeting moment we were in second place in the league. Frustrating ain’t it?

Anyway I hope my data shows a comfortable away victory tomorrow….at least I’ll be there with an objective pal who supports Huddersfield Town. I can rely on his assessment whatever the result.


Funnily enough, that game was 6 weeks before Hurst got sacked. And when he got sacked we were told that the decision was being considered for the last 6 weeks.
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chaos33
February 23, 2024, 8:06pm
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I mean Jesus wept - I don’t care about a marginal improvement in the XG data. I’ve got eyes and I understand football. Teams stroll into our box unopposed week after week and score. We have players  who can’t defend and are getting no better at it, players who can’t control a ball, don’t look organised or especially interested. It’s basic, basic stuff. You have to defend properly. Unless we stop conceding goals so readily then we’re dead. None of the other stats don’t matter a sh1t. FFS people aren’t stupid. We lose games easily. We get turned over in the first 15 minutes and it’s game over. Our home form is appalling. We’re delighted if we scrape a 0-0 away. We're miles off competing in L2 and we’ve got more resource than half of the division.

I’m not having it. I’m not buying the flim flam. Do things properly. Do the basics. Defend. Expected goals matter f•ck all. Actual goals and results count.  Goals against are what matters now and we’ve been getting worse. Please treat the supporters with respect, get real and actually manage the team properly instead of blithering on like you’re managing Ajax on FIFA 24 on a YouTube channel. Sick of it.
Actions speak louder than words David. You’re astonishingly lucky to still be here, managing tomorrow. Deliver something tangible and stop patronising and humiliating us all.


"You should do what you love while you can"
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pontoonlew
February 23, 2024, 8:12pm
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Quoted from jamesgtfc
The fact Doncaster scored 5, despite their xG being less than 0.5 last week tells you everything you need to know about us and that metric. Stop overcomplicating it.


I think if we’re all honest though it’s ridiculous how many shots fly in. Look at the recent hammerings we’ve had.

Grimsby - 14 shots  4 shots on Target, 1 goal / Doncaster 10 shots, 4 shots on target, 5 goals

Grimsby 9 shots 2 shots on target, 1 goal / Stockport 9 shots 4 shots on target, 3 goals

Grimsby 11 shots, 2 shots on target, 1 goal/ Tranmere 5 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals

Grimsby 9 shots, 4 shots on target 1 goal / Walsall 18 Shots 7 shots on target, 6 goals


Only one of those games saw us have less shots yet we’ve been on the wrong end of 3 embarrassing score lines in those games. I looked for them stats and knew what they were likely to say after watching the game because it’s plainly obvious to me we’ve rarely been as bad over 90 mins as the scorelines suggest. There’s absolutely no denying that for Doncaster and Walsall we spent 40 mins absolutely in the game.

Is it confidence, a bad goalkeeper or chronic bad luck? I’m not sure, but Artell is right when he says the data says we shouldn’t be being hammered like that. I’d br surprised if you saw any team ever have 4 games like that and produce similar score lines. There has to be an answer to it, but I can’t have people just shooting down what Artell said in his interview, because the stats show him to be correct and it’s why I’ve still got belief we’ll turn it around in the final 1/3 of the season.
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chaos33
February 23, 2024, 8:16pm
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Yeah, it’s just a 10 game freak.


"You should do what you love while you can"
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lew chaterleys lover
February 23, 2024, 8:17pm
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Quoted from pontoonlew


I think if we’re all honest though it’s ridiculous how many shots fly in. Look at the recent hammerings we’ve had.

Grimsby - 14 shots  4 shots on Target, 1 goal / Doncaster 10 shots, 4 shots on target, 5 goals

Grimsby 9 shots 2 shots on target, 1 goal / Stockport 9 shots 4 shots on target, 3 goals

Grimsby 11 shots, 2 shots on target, 1 goal/ Tranmere 5 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals

Grimsby 9 shots, 4 shots on target 1 goal / Walsall 18 Shots 7 shots on target, 6 goals


Only one of those games saw us have less shots yet we’ve been on the wrong end of 3 embarrassing score lines in those games. I looked for them stats and knew what they were likely to say after watching the game because it’s plainly obvious to me we’ve rarely been as bad over 90 mins as the scorelines suggest. There’s absolutely no denying that for Doncaster and Walsall we spent 40 mins absolutely in the game.

Is it confidence, a bad goalkeeper or chronic bad luck? I’m not sure, but Artell is right when he says the data says we shouldn’t be being hammered like that. I’d br surprised if you saw any team ever have 4 games like that and produce similar score lines. There has to be an answer to it, but I can’t have people just shooting down what Artell said in his interview, because the stats show him to be correct and it’s why I’ve still got belief we’ll turn it around in the final 1/3 of the season.


It just means either our shooting is not good enough, or opposition keepers are better shot stoppers or a combination of both. If it doesn't go in, it doesn’t count.
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pontoonlew
February 23, 2024, 8:30pm
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Quoted from chaos33
Yeah, it’s just a 10 game freak.


10 games? Artell has been here 11 games and the consensus was that MK, Newport, Crewe, Salford & Accrington were good performances, so let’s not re-write history
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GrimRob
February 23, 2024, 8:32pm

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I think he is confusing cause and effect. The difference between an xG and a goal is the player with the ball. If you look at xG data in nearly any division (you can see the averaged stats for most top leagues on the Fishy) you will find that the top sides score more than their xG and the bottom sides score less.

On the flip side, the top sides concede less than their xGA (expected goals against) and the bottom sides concede more. The cause is the top sides have good players; the bottom sides have bad players. The effect is the xG behaves the way it does. Consequently, if you score less than your xG and concede more than your xGA, it just means that you are a bottom side and don't have very good players. It doesn't mean that you are unlucky, not this deep into the season.

By way of an example. look at this season's La Liga which I pick because there is a very wide gap between the top and the bottom in terms of quality so it's a clearer pattern.

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=31&tab=tab-xg

Real Madrid have an average xG of 1.87 and score 2.12 goals; their xGA is 0.93 and they concede 0.64. So they have good players! The put away their chances more than they "should" and make "worldie" saves and blocks.

In second place Girona are punching well above their weight. They are exceeding their xG by 0.44. That probably means they have very good strikers.

Barcelona though are scoring less than their expected goals, and are third. Bad season for them.

At the bottom, it's the mirror image. Almeria score -0.35 less than expected as they are not putting away their chances. Almost all the bottom 10 score less than they are expected to.

Look at most divisions and a similar pattern emerges.

Cause not effect.


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GollyGTFC
February 23, 2024, 8:32pm

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More BS from DA.

His point that against Stockport and Donny that we were the better team in the first half ignores the reason why that might be true…

If you are away and go 2-0 up in 14 / 8 minutes it is perfectly natural to sit back and attempt to keep it tight and maybe hit the home team on the counter attack.

If you’re 2-0 down at home after less than quarter of an hour all subsequent stats are irrelevant.

Here’s some stats/data…

If a team goes 2 goals up in a match in the first half they are about 74% likely to win and only around 2% likely to lose the match.

So once we’re 2-0 down the game is almost certainly gone and the chance of winning is virtually non existent.

Can anyone remember the last time we won from 2 goals down?
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Knut Anders Fosters Voles
February 23, 2024, 8:33pm
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Quoted from pen penfras


Funnily enough, that game was 6 weeks before Hurst got sacked. And when he got sacked we were told that the decision was being considered for the last 6 weeks.


You have said this a few times now and I do have to agree with you, it is strange.

Not me agreeing with you! The timescales.

x
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MuddyWaters
February 23, 2024, 8:46pm
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Quoted from pontoonlew


10 games? Artell has been here 11 games and the consensus was that MK, Newport, Crewe, Salford & Accrington were good performances, so let’s not re-write history


If you’re going to be pedantic, it’s 13 including the Oxford cup game.
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arryarryarry
February 23, 2024, 8:51pm
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Quoted from pontoonlew


I think if we’re all honest though it’s ridiculous how many shots fly in. Look at the recent hammerings we’ve had.

Grimsby - 14 shots  4 shots on Target, 1 goal / Doncaster 10 shots, 4 shots on target, 5 goals

Grimsby 9 shots 2 shots on target, 1 goal / Stockport 9 shots 4 shots on target, 3 goals

Grimsby 11 shots, 2 shots on target, 1 goal/ Tranmere 5 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals

Grimsby 9 shots, 4 shots on target 1 goal / Walsall 18 Shots 7 shots on target, 6 goals


Only one of those games saw us have less shots yet we’ve been on the wrong end of 3 embarrassing score lines in those games. I looked for them stats and knew what they were likely to say after watching the game because it’s plainly obvious to me we’ve rarely been as bad over 90 mins as the scorelines suggest. There’s absolutely no denying that for Doncaster and Walsall we spent 40 mins absolutely in the game.

Is it confidence, a bad goalkeeper or chronic bad luck? I’m not sure, but Artell is right when he says the data says we shouldn’t be being hammered like that. I’d br surprised if you saw any team ever have 4 games like that and produce similar score lines. There has to be an answer to it, but I can’t have people just shooting down what Artell said in his interview, because the stats show him to be correct and it’s why I’ve still got belief we’ll turn it around in the final 1/3 of the season.


It's because we have some players who couldn't score if their lives depend on it and some excrement defenders.

If you can't see that then may I suggest Specsavers.
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Abdul19
February 23, 2024, 8:59pm

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Quoted from GollyGTFC
Can anyone remember the last time we won from 2 goals down?


Was it Accrington in 2010?


JESUS AT THE CENTRE
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headingly_mariner
February 23, 2024, 9:07pm

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We've got 2 points but the stats say we should've had 9.

I really hope he's right and actually we are class.
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moosey_club
February 23, 2024, 9:08pm
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Quoted from GrimRob
I think he is confusing cause and effect. The difference between an xG and a goal is the player with the ball. If you look at xG data in nearly any division (you can see the averaged stats for most top leagues on the Fishy) you will find that the top sides score more than their xG and the bottom sides score less.

On the flip side, the top sides concede less than their xGA (expected goals against) and the bottom sides concede more. The cause is the top sides have good players; the bottom sides have bad players. The effect is the xG behaves the way it does. Consequently, if you score less than your xG and concede more than your xGA, it just means that you are a bottom side and don't have very good players. It doesn't mean that you are unlucky, not this deep into the season.

By way of an example. look at this season's La Liga which I pick because there is a very wide gap between the top and the bottom in terms of quality so it's a clearer pattern.

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/leaguetable.php?table=31&tab=tab-xg

Real Madrid have an average xG of 1.87 and score 2.12 goals; their xGA is 0.93 and they concede 0.64. So they have good players! The put away their chances more than they "should" and make "worldie" saves and blocks.

In second place Girona are punching well above their weight. They are exceeding their xG by 0.44. That probably means they have very good strikers.

Barcelona though are scoring less than their expected goals, and are third. Bad season for them.

At the bottom, it's the mirror image. Almeria score -0.35 less than expected as they are not putting away their chances. Almost all the bottom 10 score less than they are expected to.

Look at most divisions and a similar pattern emerges.

Cause not effect.


Absolutely spot on. Furthermore i imagine data and stats would show an individuals xg similarly. ..we all know it as a gut feeling that when player x goes through on goal you  know its going in...player y and you aren't confident at all......trouble is all the info DA gives may be true but if our chances are going to player y then there is no point....you need to identify player x and play to make sure he is the one getting through



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2020/21  LLDWWLDLDWLWLLLDLWLLDLLDLLLWLLLDDDDWDDDLWLWLWL .. hello darkness my old friend
2019/20  WDLDWWLDLWWLLLDLDLDLDDWWDLLWDDWWL WLLW - ended
2018/19  LWDDLLLLLLWWDWLLLWDWLWWWWLLLLWWWWDLLLDDLLDLWLW Hello Scunny  
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sydney
February 23, 2024, 9:09pm
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Great Post Chaos
Get this Chap Gone
Else we are Gone
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IrishMariner
February 23, 2024, 9:12pm
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Quoted from Abdul19


Was it Accrington in 2010?


We were 3-1 against Barnet and went onto win 4-3.
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GrimRob
February 23, 2024, 9:23pm

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Quoted from moosey_club


Absolutely spot on. Furthermore i imagine data and stats would show an individuals xg similarly. ..we all know it as a gut feeling that when player x goes through on goal you  know its going in...player y and you aren't confident at all......trouble is all the info DA gives may be true but if our chances are going to player y then there is no point....you need to identify player x and play to make sure he is the one getting through



Absolutely. To continue with my La Liga example, Girona's success in front of goal seems to be largely down to their No 9 Artem Dovbyk, According to my phone's SofaScore app he has an xG of 11.31 and scored 14. He's also got 5 assists (expected 4.2). I bet he won't be at Girona next season!


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
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lew chaterleys lover
February 23, 2024, 9:26pm
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Quoted from moosey_club


Absolutely spot on. Furthermore i imagine data and stats would show an individuals xg similarly. ..we all know it as a gut feeling that when player x goes through on goal you  know its going in...player y and you aren't confident at all......trouble is all the info DA gives may be true but if our chances are going to player y then there is no point....you need to identify player x and play to make sure he is the one getting through



You are right of course and like all data it depends on context. Context is everything. It is so complex and every single event in a football match depends on so many factors to try to distill it and ever come to the right conclusion using data seems ludicrous. Already on this thread people have given various explanations to explain various possible explanations for expected goals, which is far more complex than that simple stat suggests.

As Chaos suggests, the manager and coaches should get their heads out of the spreadsheets and start doing the basics and get the team set up correctly and get the players to have some fight and self respect and stop hiding behind data that can be spun any way you like.
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HerveJosse
February 23, 2024, 9:33pm
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You are right of course and like all data it depends on context. Context is everything. It is so complex and every single event in a football match depends on so many factors to try to distill it and ever come to the right conclusion using data seems ludicrous. Already on this thread people have given various explanations to explain various possible explanations for expected goals, which is far more complex than that simple stat suggests.

As Chaos suggests, the manager and coaches should get their heads out of the spreadsheets and start doing the basics and get the team set up correctly and get the players to have some fight and self respect and stop hiding behind data that can be spun any way you like.


It’s not the manager who needs to get his head out of his bottom , he is clutching at any straws he can to keep his job , it’s the owners .
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bawarmy
February 23, 2024, 9:35pm
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What a load of twaddle. Win games and that’s all there is to it. Data  my backside
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Maringer
February 23, 2024, 9:36pm
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It was a very calm and lucid interview from Artell which would have calmed my nerves a bit if only we had better midfielders and defenders.

There is absolutely no doubt that the finishing of teams against us at BP during 2024 has been ridiculously good. Difficult chances slotted away and very little opportunity for our keeper to save the vast majority of them. In a typical run of games we might well still have lost them all, but probably wouldn't have been battered so often in the way we have.

But, also no doubt that we haven't defended nearly well enough in those games. Unless that improves, we'll continue to lose, even if the opposition don't smack every half-chance into the top corner.
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ginnywings
February 23, 2024, 9:39pm

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I'm watching Leicester and Leeds at the moment, and much better strikers than we have are missing chances for fun. Amazed there has only been one goal so far.

Sometimes, sticking the ball in the net is the hardest thing, except for any team that is playing against us it seems.

Spoke too soon. Leeds just equalised.
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arryarryarry
February 23, 2024, 10:04pm
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Quoted from davmariner


I gave up watching it after the comments

"We have improved in lots of areas"

"We were the best team in the first half'

He's lost the frigging plot.
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February 23, 2024, 10:43pm

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As many have said before, we can see what plan A is and it doesn’t work. Plan B, if there is one, needs to be simpler and have less pressure on the defenders. Defenders are not naturally known for their dribbling and/or passing, they do a job in defending the goal. Clues in the position I guess. If they were any good at dribbling/passing they’d be playing further up the pitch.

I think that Eastwood may get a chance to replace Cartwright sooner rather than later. It’s unfortunate but, we’re leaking goals at an alarming rate and maybe this is DA’s final chance with the club.


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Knut Anders Fosters Voles
February 23, 2024, 10:50pm
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Quoted from WOZOFGRIMSBY

I think that Eastwood may get a chance to replace Cartwright sooner rather than later. It’s unfortunate but, we’re leaking goals at an alarming rate and maybe this is DA’s final chance with the club.


Eastwood’s a coward

Cartwright isn’t; he’s just young, raw and inexperienced. I’d take Cartwright over a coward every day of the week.
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jamesgtfc
February 23, 2024, 10:55pm
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Eastwood’s a coward

Cartwright isn’t; he’s just young, raw and inexperienced. I’d take Cartwright over a coward every day of the week.


Cartwright is a coward for kicking long. Not my words, Artell said it the other week.
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grimsby pete
February 23, 2024, 10:58pm

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The other week he said we had plan a,b,c,d,e, the only trouble they all sounded like plan A .


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Heisenberg
February 23, 2024, 11:12pm
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Quoted from arryarryarry


I gave up watching it after the comments

"We have improved in lots of areas"

"We were the best team in the first half'

He's lost the frigging plot.


We WERE the best team in the first half. If you went, you’ll know that, deep down. We should have gone into half time with a lead. I know we didn’t, but after our goal we pressed and hassled their defenders into numerous mistakes. Our undoing, other than the defending, was abysmal finishing from Clifton and Green.

Having said that, the shambles that followed, well……
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AdamHaddock
February 23, 2024, 11:17pm

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You can get evens on Morecambe to score at least two


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Poojah
February 23, 2024, 11:21pm
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Quoted from AdamHaddock
You can get evens on Morecambe to score at least two


33/1 on Morecambe to score at least 5. As good as printing money.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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arryarryarry
February 24, 2024, 2:29am
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Quoted from Heisenberg


We WERE the best team in the first half. If you went, you’ll know that, deep down. We should have gone into half time with a lead. I know we didn’t, but after our goal we pressed and hassled their defenders into numerous mistakes. Our undoing, other than the defending, was abysmal finishing from Clifton and Green.

Having said that, the shambles that followed, well……


I was there, where were our 2 other goals coming from?
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grimsby pete
February 24, 2024, 2:40am

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DA has said we were the better side in the 1st half a few times.

Maybe he should not talk to the players at half time.


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louth_in_the_south
February 24, 2024, 4:37am

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Quoted from Mappers


Injured

He answered the Alex Hunt question well I thought and explained the rationale behind his decision to let him leave on loan , seems he's a big part of Artell's plans next season .....


At what club ?!!!


Lower F5
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Mayaman
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Our run of form has been terrible, our defence is woeful and we are not a threat going forward.  - What if he said this?? Firstly, it wouldn't cultivate a mentality to turn to winning ways, would it?  Besides,  everyone would slate him on here for it. Fake it until you make it.  Still think pre-game interviews are pointless. When did they become a thing?
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February 24, 2024, 6:07am

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Quoted from Poojah


33/1 on Morecambe to score at least 5. As good as printing money.


What? With our “good” away form?!?!?
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Quoted from AdamHaddock
You can get evens on Morecambe to score at least two


They are 13/10 just to win


Rose is on fire

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CSLM
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Quoted from WOZOFGRIMSBY


They are 13/10 just to win


The odds on our games are often strange. The bookies seem to think we are better than we are. At home we are normally evens or odds on and away there isn't normally much in ot unless we are playing one of the big boys.

If you had bet against us every week you surely would've made a decent profit. I think Doncaster were 11/4. Jesus then there was Tranmere, Walsall, Colchester, Crawley, probably more.

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February 24, 2024, 9:06am

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Eastwood’s a coward

Cartwright isn’t; he’s just young, raw and inexperienced. I’d take Cartwright over a coward every day of the week.


Fragile confidence, maybe but “coward” is a cheap shot from your arm chair.



"Crombie you would have got to that if you weren't such a fat ba%$@rd" - George Kerr, inspiration from the dug out 70s style  
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toontown
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Quoted from pen penfras


xG is a prime example of data being used to fit a narrative that is wrong. xG is based on averages, how often a chance of a certain quality results in a goal on average. But of course on average better players score that chance more often than worse players.

So having worse players, you'd expect us to have a higher xG than goals. The same for expected goals against.

The data isn't saying that we're doing better than the results show, it's saying that our players are excrement


Well the players still have to have ability in order to create those chances so technically, with your theory , its actually saying our players are excrement at shooting.

I certainly think that's true of Clifton, has the energy, drive and pace to get into the positions and/or dispossess oppo players, but not the shooting ability to score usually, or the passing ability to slip someone else in to score.
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February 24, 2024, 9:27am
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If we’re looking good omens, this isn’t it. 15 years ago today.

Tweet 1761304728669925558 will appear here...


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toontown
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I am a critic of Artell and want him gone, I thought he's had a couple of really dreadful interviews that show he's surely on his last legs as manager. However that BBC one was better in my opinion. Gave a reasonable and valid explanation as to the Hunt loan, even if I do think it's a big short term risk given our precarious position and potential need for him to change things up.

Also said Thompson absence was just a niggle, not sure I believe him but hopefully means even if it was a disagreement they have made up, we'rr surely gonna need him, so that's a relief.

As for the data thing he gave a better explanation of his thinking than previously, not a high bar but he still came across better imo. I'd like to know what he means by 'the data' shows us as improving. Yes he referred to xg but what else? If it's possession and number of passes then possession between GK and CB or passes between CBs are irrelevant for winning matches but would contribute to a misleading 'improvement' in stats.

Our xg might be improving but what about the issue with teams actual goals against us going up when their xg is low?

So although he sounded fine to me in his arguments I'd like to be able to interrogate him more on his analysis of the data, which obviously you can't do unless your on the board, but the interview was fine on the surface.

I think we've got him as manager for at least 2 more games barring a heavy defeat today, and even that might not do for him, would possibly depends on FG and Sutton results.
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HerveJosse
February 24, 2024, 10:10am
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Judging improvement based on XG rather then actual goals ls like determining election results by opinion polls rather then actual votes .
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GollyGTFC
February 24, 2024, 10:12am

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Quoted from toontown
I am a critic of Artell and want him gone, I thought he's had a couple of really dreadful interviews that show he's surely on his last legs as manager. However that BBC one was better in my opinion. Gave a reasonable and valid explanation as to the Hunt loan, even if I do think it's a big short term risk given our precarious position and potential need for him to change things up.

Also said Thompson absence was just a niggle, not sure I believe him but hopefully means even if it was a disagreement they have made up, we'rr surely gonna need him, so that's a relief.

As for the data thing he gave a better explanation of his thinking than previously, not a high bar but he still came across better imo. I'd like to know what he means by 'the data' shows us as improving. Yes he referred to xg but what else? If it's possession and number of passes then possession between GK and CB or passes between CBs are irrelevant for winning matches but would contribute to a misleading 'improvement' in stats.

Our xg might be improving but what about the issue with teams actual goals against us going up when their xg is low?

So although he sounded fine to me in his arguments I'd like to be able to interrogate him more on his analysis of the data, which obviously you can't do unless your on the board, but the interview was fine on the surface.

I think we've got him as manager for at least 2 more games barring a heavy defeat today, and even that might not do for him, would possibly depends on FG and Sutton results.


If you're 2/3-0 down at home after 8/14/28 minutes all subsequent data from the match is pointless. The opposition are in game management mode and keeping it tight. DA is clutching at straws if he thinks anyone cares how the stats look good when the game is already lost.
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February 24, 2024, 10:15am

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Quoted from HerveJosse
Judging improvement based on XG rather then actual goals ls like determining election results by opinion polls rather then actual votes .


Yeah. The only stats that ultimately matter are goals scored and goals conceded. If you get both of them right then other important stats (wins, league points, goal difference, clean sheets) take care of themselves.

xG is a stat quoted by losers.
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WOZOFGRIMSBY
February 24, 2024, 11:19am

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Quoted from CSLM


The odds on our games are often strange. The bookies seem to think we are better than we are. At home we are normally evens or odds on and away there isn't normally much in ot unless we are playing one of the big boys.

If you had bet against us every week you surely would've made a decent profit. I think Doncaster were 11/4. Jesus then there was Tranmere, Walsall, Colchester, Crawley, probably more.



Tranmere and Colchester are both 15/8 to each win at forest green and Sutton respectively. So somewhere around a 7/1 double which isn’t a bad bet. Although I guess anything can happen where form goes out the window.


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toontown
February 24, 2024, 11:20am
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Quoted from GollyGTFC


If you're 2/3-0 down at home after 8/14/28 minutes all subsequent data from the match is pointless. The opposition are in game management mode and keeping it tight. DA is clutching at straws if he thinks anyone cares how the stats look good when the game is already lost.


Yeah that's probably a fair point.

JS at the away game, do they go to every away game? Could that be a sign this is Artell's equivalent of Doncaster away - lose and your out?
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pen penfras
February 24, 2024, 11:40am

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Quoted from toontown


Yeah that's probably a fair point.

JS at the away game, do they go to every away game? Could that be a sign this is Artell's equivalent of Doncaster away - lose and your out?


They don't even go to every home game.
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Quoted from WOZOFGRIMSBY


Tranmere and Colchester are both 15/8 to each win at forest green and Sutton respectively. So somewhere around a 7/1 double which isn’t a bad bet. Although I guess anything can happen where form goes out the window.


Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if we all lost again though Sutton and Forest green haven't looked completely shite recently.

I was talking about all the games we have lost at home. The away team has been 2,3 or even 4 to 1 for most of them. Can't remember what Stockport were, I'm thinking only just odds on but can't remember. That was a bloody good bet.
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WOZOFGRIMSBY
February 24, 2024, 12:29pm

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Quoted from CSLM


Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if we all lost again though Sutton and Forest green haven't looked completely shite recently.

I was talking about all the games we have lost at home. The away team has been 2,3 or even 4 to 1 for most of them. Can't remember what Stockport were, I'm thinking only just odds on but can't remember. That was a bloody good bet.


Stockport I think we’re 11/10. Donny we’re 11/4


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CSLM
February 24, 2024, 12:47pm
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Just listened to the humberside one. I think I'm in the minority but I like his interviews, really tries to answer the questions. He does contradict himself a bit with the stats and then saying that you can make data say anything but overall I thought it was a decent interview.

Don't know why but it made me think if only we had Ryan Bennett sorting the defence out.
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CSLM
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Quoted from WOZOFGRIMSBY


Stockport I think we’re 11/10. Donny we’re 11/4


I don't bet against us but Stockport were one hell of a price. Men vs boys.

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lew chaterleys lover
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Somebody said there had been a big meeting with the 21st Group about the data. If that is true it is very concerning if the outcome is a pat on the back for everyone and a feeling that we are actually doing quite well.

The team isn't set up right and the tactics, including your centre halves stranded in the opposition half is not a good strategy.

As regards the data itself even my wife can see the futility of it all, and as she said it's a shame we actually have to play the games otherwise we would be top of the league.

Whatever data they thought was good or bad, will not be replicated today so they spend all next week pouring over the data of today's game which will not impact the Forest Green home game in the slightest.
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Heswall Mariner
February 24, 2024, 1:23pm

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Quoted from CSLM
Just listened to the humberside one. I think I'm in the minority but I like his interviews, really tries to answer the questions. He does contradict himself a bit with the stats and then saying that you can make data say anything but overall I thought it was a decent interview.

[b]Don't know why but it made me think if only we had Ryan Bennett sorting the defence out.


Going off piste a bit here - but does anyone know why we didn't sign Bennett?
He moved to the area & was training with us I believe - seemed a no brainer to me.


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GollyGTFC
February 24, 2024, 1:24pm

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Apparently Morecambe were “the better side” on Tuesday night when they lost 3-0 at Walsall according to DA…

Some stats…

Result: Walsall 3-0 Morecambe
xG: Walsall 2.59-0.69 Morecambe
Shots on target: Walsall 6-1 Morecambe
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GrimPol
February 24, 2024, 2:21pm
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Quoted from headingly_mariner
We've got 2 points but the stats say we should've had 9.

I really hope he's right and actually we are class.


Do you think the players buy into this or just management as they spent a fortune on it.?
Did our team go into the dresser 5:1 down, got indoctrinated by DA, and an hour later they were driving home with a view that they were the better team but just sooooooo unlucky? And if it wasn't for the fact that the fans were unhappy (fans eh, who wants them?) it would have been a pleasant afternoon. Don't worry about the points.
Perhaps GTFC can steer us non-believers to a website where we can be "reducated" and not make mistakes like that kid in "The Emperors New Clothes" (I've pinched this from another postee) where everyone admired the Kings New Clothes, and the kid only saw him naked, and dared to say so.
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