Don't be safe...

Without wanting to ignite the whole stats debate again, I’d be interested to know the % increase in chances created or goals expected by teams who play out on a consistent basis as opposed to the more direct style . I’m guessing it’s only a small advantage but as with any sports , a small numerical advantage may translate to increased chances of gaining advantage/ winning.
Personally , I think a mixture of both must be the way to go as this lessens the chances of over trying and losing possession unnecessarily in dangerous positions when playing out isn’t on . Watching football, especially from higher divisions with more technically gifted players , the number of times possession is loss or the ball is just lumped after a few passes makes me think it’s overplayed .
As a fan I do also feel that part of the enjoyment of football is seeing players have a physical battle and winning / losing the ball from a long kick and the way players react between themselves to this challenge. Losing this takes away the entertainment factor to a degree as I’d rather see that that boring tippy tapping around all the time. But I’m not a manager and it’s a results based career , not a forearm smash to the CB’s head sport anymore!

Quoted from louth_in_the_south

Without wanting to ignite the whole stats debate again, I’d be interested to know the % increase in chances created or goals expected by teams who play out on a consistent basis as opposed to the more direct style . I’m guessing it’s only a small advantage but as with any sports , a small numerical advantage may translate to increased chances of gaining advantage/ winning.
Personally , I think a mixture of both must be the way to go as this lessens the chances of over trying and losing possession unnecessarily in dangerous positions when playing out isn’t on . Watching football, especially from higher divisions with more technically gifted players , the number of times possession is loss or the ball is just lumped after a few passes makes me think it’s overplayed .
As a fan I do also feel that part of the enjoyment of football is seeing players have a physical battle and winning / losing the ball from a long kick and the way players react between themselves to this challenge. Losing this takes away the entertainment factor to a degree as I’d rather see that that boring tippy tapping around all the time. But I’m not a manager and it’s a results based career , not a forearm smash to the CB’s head sport anymore!

I don't think it is a choice of long ball v tippy tappy. It is about keeping the ball so the opposition can't hurt you, and passing the ball well enough, long and short in all areas of the pitch to create chances.

Yes of course you lose possession sometimes, but not nearly as much as when you overdo the long ball.

Quoted from louth_in_the_south

not a forearm smash to the CB’s head sport anymore!

You've hit the nail on the head with your final comment (excuse the pun). And it's not just football..

I was involved in a webinar last week about using data to drive decisions in business and one of the presenters was a former ice hockey player (GB level player) who was saying that the physical players who are basically there to bully other players and 'get stuck in' are virtually a thing of the past in the game. Data is now being used to measure how players have a positive or negative impact on the game and teams are increasingly only interested in the players who have a positive impact. This has all but killed off the 'enforcer' in ice hockey.

Everyone in football is trying to play from the back now - the data must indicate very strongly that this is the right approach. And I assume that defenders who can't pass out from the back will become extinct in the near future, just as goalkeepers kicking the ball out of their hands has become extinct.

I think Ben or Shaun mentioned playing out from the back at the Supporting Meeting. I believe they said it produced more benefits than hoofing up the pitch.

There still be a time when a good old whack upfield will be necessary. It not written in stone that we have to pass it out every time

Anyone and everyone will have their personal preferences on how they want their team to play. I've got a feeling louth_in_the_south would be more aligned to how a Steve Evans team might play as opposed to a Luke Williams team, but that's the beauty of the game, there isn't a magical formula that is the singular way of doing things.

My personal viewpoint is that ball possession determines everything. If you have the ball then the opposition can't score. For us to score we need to have the ball, so lumping it forward takes the control out of our hands and we need to re-compete to win the ball at the first, second and any further opportunities.

The opposition obviously aren't going to allow us to simply progress forward with the ball and gift us a chance and so possession based football needs to be a patient business at times.

Whenever I get involved chatting with people on football and getting into the weeds of it, so many people say that we pass to get the ball forward, tire the opposition or switch the ball. None of those are why we pass it, but by-products, the purpose is simply to move the opposition.

The easiest example to give is playing across the back line. In theory it should be easiest as there are 4 defenders against 1 or 2 forwards (often) but you'll often see it whereby we make 3 or 4 passes across the back before one of the CBs has the room to step forward 10, 20, 30 yards and has the time to find the best action to progress the attack (keep running with the ball, dribble, pass, shoot...).

What we're hoping to achieve is to create enough disorganisation in the opposition to find little pockets of space for us to create overloads where we have a numerical advantage on the opposition. Across the back is the easiest place for this to happen but in the same way defending starts from the front, attacking starts at the back. If we know that we need to be neat, precise, intricate and creative in the final third this is only possible if we have good possession of the ball and players can make confident movements rather than cautious ones because possession looks shaky. Getting the ball on the floor and moving it purposefully will support that need much more than going long and hoping to get it under our possession under more pressure. Similarly, if a team commits to a high press with 4/5/6 players, if you break it then you have the very real numerical advantage to work with if you progress at pace. It has its risk but the reward can be huge.

In reverse when we look at defending and stages of the game, when you see town pressing during periods then get frustrated when we seem to stop, that's a design to be more disciplined in our organisation. In a strange way, the team that is losing has the licence to control the tempo. Do nothing and you're going to lose, take more risk and the opposition have to decide whether to try and gamble on the turnover or 'play safe' and stay organised and don't allow themselves to be stretched. I have the feeling that the longer DA gets his ideas across we'll gamble more and more as the confidence grows in how we're playing.

We saw in the early part of the season how well we kept the ball and dominated some games but when they'd done enough to open up the opposition we didn't take advantage and recycled again and again giving the opposition chance to regroup. Even when SP and BD took over, the players looked as though they were given the freedom to take the game more and was a noticeable difference just in attacking intent, even if the manner of our approach play hadn't really changed, the same being true with DA now.  

Inevitably - even more so the lower down the leagues you go - failure is going to be part and parcel and unavoidable. Even in L2, the speed at which players need to make decisions, both on and off the ball is incredible and this is where you find your real talent, those who can see the game and move it on almost instantly.

In my opinion, this is where fans frustration often comes in and is sometimes unfair. From our vantage points where we can see the whole pitch/game we have a better perspective of what could have been a better option, the players don't always see the whole and mistakes occur as a result. Some frustration will no doubt be justified, like Hunt passing the ball straight out the pitch on Saturday, there's no real excuse. He was great so that's not an assertion he isn't good, but in that moment he made an unjustified error. Trying to make a chance with a creative pass that doesn't come off for me is justified and although disappointing when it fails can really get the excitement going when it's successful.

You could take the goals away and simply play 90 minutes of possession and I could still be entertained, I love the exchanging of a series of quick, short passes before a ranging pass changes the picture entirely and the next bit of play begins.

All of this isn't to say I don't like a strong challenge or a calculated long ball (which still has its place even in a possession based approach), but I'm firmly in the pass the ball around camp.

I prefer a more direct style if i'm being honest.  I'm not a fan of the crappy pass, pass, pass pass to the left, then pass, pass, pass to the right i,e. England way, and it does my head in.  I'd much prefer quick direct passes to players and take them on with pace.  I don't mean hoof it either.

Quoted from mimma

There still be a time when a good old whack upfield will be necessary. It not written in stone that we have to pass it out every time

If we have a player in space, then it makes sense to play the long ball to him.
If the defender or keeper have no short pass options, then it also makes sense to boot it long

Quoted from grimps

If we have a player in space, then it makes sense to play the long ball to him.
If the defender or keeper have no short pass options, then it also makes sense to boot it long

The idea is to get the opposition to press and then beat the press. It was clear on Saturday that we had more off the ball movement than previously so beating the press was easier because we had more/better options.

I like to see it mixed up a bit if I’m honest. Playing out is ok and on a couple of occasions in the first half on Saturday we did it really well when the defence & Conteh worked together to break Crewe’s shape to allow us to pass it up field.

The bit I struggle with is the two players on the six yard box at goal kicks, just looks stage managed to me which I guess to a degree it is.