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Another Bet 365 risk free in play bet

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paulgtfc
December 27, 2014, 1:11pm Report to Moderator
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Liverpool v Swans

Plenty of discussion on strategy for previous matches of this nature.  Personally I lay off my pre match bet on Betfair, giving £2.50 loss on a £50 bet to account to differences in odds / Betfair commission.  As regards in play bet, lay off around £30 on Betfair to give guaranteed return of around £30 regardless of the result.  Overall profit is then £30 less £2.50 loss on pre match bet.  Nice  
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Doubled
December 27, 2014, 1:16pm Report to Moderator
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Sorry, this makes no sense to me!
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tellnoramariner
December 27, 2014, 3:44pm Report to Moderator
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The original bet even at £50 stake isn't very profitable. But still an easy £13-16 if you can be bothered.

My maths was £50 Liverpool @ 4/6  returns £83.33 and £17 Swansea @ 19/4  returns £80.75 pre match, then in-play £50 the draw at 3/1 returns £200 ( which hopefully will be better if an early goal and stake refunded if not a winner)

Effectively wins £16 if Liverpool win, a little under £14 if Swansea win and £83 if it's a draw.

I think my maths is correct on this but if anyone has any other more profitable methods - that thickos like me can understand then let us all know please!


"That's football, Mike, Northern Ireland have had several chances and haven't scored but England have had no chances and scored twice."
Trevor Brooking
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paulgtfc
December 27, 2014, 6:43pm Report to Moderator
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Not sure if Bet 365 will allow 3 bets on their site giving a risk free payout!

The hedging with Betfair involves the need for a kitty to finance the hedging but you can withdraw the funds post match from Bet 365 or Betfair according to which site the profit resulted.

Betfair allows you to back an event (eg Lpool to win) or to lay an event (ie act as bookmaker).  I backed Lpool to win at 0.7 on Bet 365, so that my £50 bet returns £35 if Lpool win; if they don't win then I lose £50.  I layed Lpool on Betfair at 0.75 for £50, so that I pay out (ie lose) £37.50 if lpool win - of course that is almost covered by my £35 win on Bet 365.  If Lpool don't win, I lose £50 on Bet 365 but I win £50 on Betfair.

The in play bet works in a similar way but I only lay around £30 on Betfair - the in play bet can be any market, not necessarily same as pre match market. The greater the odds on the in play market the more you can win overall.  Eg take an event that is 4/1 in play, say Swans win. Back on Bet 365 so £50 would pay £200 if Swans win. No loss if swans don't win as it is a risk free bet.

Lay £40 on Betfair - if Swans win you pay out £160. You have gained £40, IE £200 win on bet 365 less £160 loss on betfair.  If Swans don't win, there is no Bet 365 loss (risk free bet) and you win £40 on Betfair.  

However you need to finance £100 Bet 365 bets and Betfair lays (£37.50 + £160).  And Betfair lay odds may not be same as Bet 365 odds to profit will be slightly lower than described above.  Then there is small commission on Betfair but overall profit should be £30 or over!
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Rodley Mariner
December 27, 2014, 8:05pm Report to Moderator
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Bet365 t and c's will say you can't guarantee a win by covering all outcomes but in reality they will pay out. In the Chelsea vs Stoke game I backed Chelsea before and the Stoke/Draw in play and they paid the win andcreturned the stake on the losing in-play.
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Tommy
December 29, 2014, 6:40pm Report to Moderator
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I've gone £50 on Liverpool with B365 and £30 on Swansea with Beftred at 9/2. £50 going on the draw in-play with B365.

Basically accepted winning nothing (well, £6 odd profit) in the hope of the draw (£65 profit) or an away win (£85 profit) banking a bit more.


"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one."
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JonnyK
December 29, 2014, 7:35pm Report to Moderator
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Done 50 - 50 (inplay) - 20 for liv - draw - swans. Gets profit of 17.50 - 75 - 40. Boylesports (prob others too) have a free bet refund for new customers who lose their first bet, up to 25. Maybe worth putting the third bet on with them for anyone new to this.

Contemplating waiting til 10 mins for the inplay draw, in case there's an early goal. Sound plan, or crap idea?

For the chelsea stoke game I missed the first goal so by the time I put theinplay on stoke, they went to 14-1 - return would have been 750!!
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Rodley Mariner
December 29, 2014, 8:17pm Report to Moderator
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Do or die. £50 on L'pool pre game and £50 Sterling FGS in-play.
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psgmariner
December 29, 2014, 8:21pm Report to Moderator

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Quoted from Rodley Mariner
Do or die. £50 on L'pool pre game and £50 Sterling FGS in-play.


Balls out betting.

I have played it safe.
Praying for a draw so that I get more than £17 profit.


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Rodley Mariner
December 29, 2014, 8:39pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from psgmariner


Balls out betting.

I have played it safe.
Praying for a draw so that I get more than £17 profit.


Moreno would've been my next choice!

Need the scousers to see it through. Afternoon drinking then gambling not a good idea!
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