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Can we win the title? - statistical geekery

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horsforthmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:23pm
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So we've reached the half way point in the league and we are on 40 points. Stating the bleeding obvious if we repeated this in the second half we would end up on 80 points, which if history is correct would be nowhere near enough to win the title.

However I wanted to know in historical terms whether we can from the position we are in now win the title. So I looked at all the teams after 23 games and how many points they had after 23 games. The news isn't great to be honest since Promotion/Relegation was introduced only 2 (out of 2 teams with 40 points or less have gone onto win the title. The average title winning team has 47.25 points after 23 games.

Here are the stats they go: team name, number of points after 23 games, (total points they got) and then points they got after 23 games and this as a percentage. I've not done the total points after 23 or percentage for Accrington and before as they only played 42 games.

Luton 47 (101)  54 points  53%
Mansfield 35 (95) 60 points 63%
Crawley 52 (105) 53 points 50%
Fleetwood 50 (103) 53 points 51%
Stevenage 47 (99) 52 points  52%
Burton Albion 49 (8 39 points 44%
Aldershot 55 (101) 46 points 45%,
Dagenham 47 (95) 48 points 50%
Accrington 49 ( 91) Barnet 52 (86) Chester 47 (92) Yeovil 49 (95) Boston United  48 (84) Rushden 44 (86) Kidderminster 40 (85) Cheltenham Town 49  (80)  Halifax 49 ( 87) Macclesfield 43(90) Stevenage 48  (91) Macclesfield 50 (80)Kidderminster  41 (75) Wycombe 52 (83) Colchester 51 (94) Barnet 48 (87) Darlington 48 (87)Maidstone United 42 (84) Lincoln 48 (82) Scarborough 43  (91)

So teams in the 46 game season generally do only slightly better in the second half of the season. Again not great news. However a few anecdotal points. Firstly coming from second at this stage of the season is not particularly rare. Barnet's points tally isn't that great either - it's probably the total number of winning points will be quite low - I'm guessing around 90 points.

One other thing - we've also got to 23 games earlier than any other team

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Meza
November 27, 2014, 6:29pm

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Quoted from horsforthmariner
So we've reached the half way point in the league and we are on 40 points. Stating the bleeding obvious if we repeated this in the second half we would end up on 80 points, which if history is correct would be nowhere near enough to win the title.

However I wanted to know in historical terms whether we can from the position we are in now win the title. So I looked at all the teams after 23 games and how many points they had after 23 games. The news isn't great to be honest since Promotion/Relegation was introduced only 2 (out of 2 teams with 40 points or less have gone onto win the title. The average title winning team has 47.25 points after 23 games.

Here are the stats they go: team name, number of points after 23 games, (total points they got) and then points they got after 23 games and this as a percentage. I've not done the total points after 23 or percentage for Accrington and before as they only played 42 games.

Luton 47 (101)  54 points  53%
Mansfield 35 (95) 60 points 63%
Crawley 52 (105) 53 points 50%
Fleetwood 50 (103) 53 points 51%
Stevenage 47 (99) 52 points  52%
Burton Albion 49 (8 39 points 44%
Aldershot 55 (101) 46 points 45%,
Dagenham 47 (95) 48 points 50%
Accrington 49 ( 91) Barnet 52 (86) Chester 47 (92) Yeovil 49 (95) Boston United  48 (84) Rushden 44 (86) Kidderminster 40 (85) Cheltenham Town 49  (80)  Halifax 49 ( 87) Macclesfield 43(90) Stevenage 48  (91) Macclesfield 50 (80)Kidderminster  41 (75) Wycombe 52 (83) Colchester 51 (94) Barnet 48 (87) Darlington 48 (87)Maidstone United 42 (84) Lincoln 48 (82) Scarborough 43  (91)

So teams in the 46 game season generally do only slightly better in the second half of the season. Again not great news. However a few anecdotal points. Firstly coming from second at this stage of the season is not particularly rare. Barnet's points tally isn't that great either - it's probably the total number of winning points will be quite low - I'm guessing around 90 points.

One other thing - we've also got to 23 games earlier than any other team



Now compare that with towns 2nd half of the season from the past 4 seasons or since being in the conference.


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mariner tommy
November 27, 2014, 6:38pm
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You've put a lot of work into that, well done.

UTM


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horsforthmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:53pm
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Now compare that with towns 2nd half of the season from the past 4 seasons or since being in the conference.[/quote]

Ok

2013-2014 43 (7 35 -45%
2012-2013  43 (83) 40 -48%
2011-2012 29 (70) 41 – 58%
2010-2011  35 (62) 27 43%

This shows an average of 35.75 points in the second half of the season - which probably wouldn't see us into to the play offs.

The season we got the most in the second 23 games we played (like this season) our first 23 games by the end of november.

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horsforthmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:53pm
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Quoted from mariner tommy
You've put a lot of work into that, well done.

UTM


thanks
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northbankmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:57pm

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I know the total points amassed at the half way stage by town and Barnet is comparatively low compared to other seasons in this division, but could this be down to just how wide open and competitive this league really is? Teams really are taking points if each other quite regularly, and there seems plenty of draws also. This division has never been tighter and a lower points tally I believe will secure the title.


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fleabag1970
November 27, 2014, 7:00pm
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Problem is Town are always playing catch up .  The terms like  " If we win the next two and they lose both" have become an all to familar set of hopes that we cling onto . The only way to do is it like Luton last year . Take it by the scruff of the neck and attack teams , run at teams , scare teams . We are the Mighty Grimsby Town and who the intercourse are you ..............................


]Remember its just my opinion  ..... It might not be true ............
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grimsby pete
November 27, 2014, 7:02pm

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What has happened in the past is history,

All we need to do is Beat Barnet twice and get more points in the 2nd half of the season than anybody else,

Easy Peasy  


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Belfast Town
November 27, 2014, 7:16pm
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Apparently, if you split in half every season we've been in the conference - ie nine half seasons - this has been our sixth best half season. And we're second in the league. Not sure what this tells us, but basically I think it means we've got a hell of a chance of winning this fecker!!
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moosey_club
November 27, 2014, 7:30pm
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add in we will probably need to find an extra 10 points once we have some deducted for smoke bomb related crimes then we may as well start "planning next seasons conference promotion camaign on a slightly lesser budget" now.

Also the figure given is slightly skewed as there are teams with games in hand who can surpass our 23 game total so we may be further down the pecking order yet....plus we have just had a pretty extraordinary run of wins to gather our current total which i cannot see being maintained....play off lottery at best i think.


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