Welcome, Guest.
Please login or register.
Fishy Forum Fishy Boards Archive › Can we win the title? - statistical geekery
Users Browsing Forum
AdSense, Googlebot and 433 Guests

Can we win the title? - statistical geekery

  This thread currently has 3,587 views. Print
3 Pages 1 2 3 Next All Recommend Thread
horsforthmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:23pm
Fine Wine Drinker
Posts: 1,287
Posts Per Day: 0.29
Reputation: 78.8%
Rep Score: +7 / -2
Approval: +2,575
Gold Stars: 8
So we've reached the half way point in the league and we are on 40 points. Stating the bleeding obvious if we repeated this in the second half we would end up on 80 points, which if history is correct would be nowhere near enough to win the title.

However I wanted to know in historical terms whether we can from the position we are in now win the title. So I looked at all the teams after 23 games and how many points they had after 23 games. The news isn't great to be honest since Promotion/Relegation was introduced only 2 (out of 2 teams with 40 points or less have gone onto win the title. The average title winning team has 47.25 points after 23 games.

Here are the stats they go: team name, number of points after 23 games, (total points they got) and then points they got after 23 games and this as a percentage. I've not done the total points after 23 or percentage for Accrington and before as they only played 42 games.

Luton 47 (101)  54 points  53%
Mansfield 35 (95) 60 points 63%
Crawley 52 (105) 53 points 50%
Fleetwood 50 (103) 53 points 51%
Stevenage 47 (99) 52 points  52%
Burton Albion 49 (8 39 points 44%
Aldershot 55 (101) 46 points 45%,
Dagenham 47 (95) 48 points 50%
Accrington 49 ( 91) Barnet 52 (86) Chester 47 (92) Yeovil 49 (95) Boston United  48 (84) Rushden 44 (86) Kidderminster 40 (85) Cheltenham Town 49  (80)  Halifax 49 ( 87) Macclesfield 43(90) Stevenage 48  (91) Macclesfield 50 (80)Kidderminster  41 (75) Wycombe 52 (83) Colchester 51 (94) Barnet 48 (87) Darlington 48 (87)Maidstone United 42 (84) Lincoln 48 (82) Scarborough 43  (91)

So teams in the 46 game season generally do only slightly better in the second half of the season. Again not great news. However a few anecdotal points. Firstly coming from second at this stage of the season is not particularly rare. Barnet's points tally isn't that great either - it's probably the total number of winning points will be quite low - I'm guessing around 90 points.

One other thing - we've also got to 23 games earlier than any other team

Logged Offline
Private Message
Meza
November 27, 2014, 6:29pm

We urine On Your Fish Yes we do yes we do
Special Brew Drinker
Posts: 9,711
Posts Per Day: 1.84
Reputation: 94.61%
Rep Score: +78 / -3
Location: Lincoln
Approval: +1,634
Gold Stars: 50
Quoted from horsforthmariner
So we've reached the half way point in the league and we are on 40 points. Stating the bleeding obvious if we repeated this in the second half we would end up on 80 points, which if history is correct would be nowhere near enough to win the title.

However I wanted to know in historical terms whether we can from the position we are in now win the title. So I looked at all the teams after 23 games and how many points they had after 23 games. The news isn't great to be honest since Promotion/Relegation was introduced only 2 (out of 2 teams with 40 points or less have gone onto win the title. The average title winning team has 47.25 points after 23 games.

Here are the stats they go: team name, number of points after 23 games, (total points they got) and then points they got after 23 games and this as a percentage. I've not done the total points after 23 or percentage for Accrington and before as they only played 42 games.

Luton 47 (101)  54 points  53%
Mansfield 35 (95) 60 points 63%
Crawley 52 (105) 53 points 50%
Fleetwood 50 (103) 53 points 51%
Stevenage 47 (99) 52 points  52%
Burton Albion 49 (8 39 points 44%
Aldershot 55 (101) 46 points 45%,
Dagenham 47 (95) 48 points 50%
Accrington 49 ( 91) Barnet 52 (86) Chester 47 (92) Yeovil 49 (95) Boston United  48 (84) Rushden 44 (86) Kidderminster 40 (85) Cheltenham Town 49  (80)  Halifax 49 ( 87) Macclesfield 43(90) Stevenage 48  (91) Macclesfield 50 (80)Kidderminster  41 (75) Wycombe 52 (83) Colchester 51 (94) Barnet 48 (87) Darlington 48 (87)Maidstone United 42 (84) Lincoln 48 (82) Scarborough 43  (91)

So teams in the 46 game season generally do only slightly better in the second half of the season. Again not great news. However a few anecdotal points. Firstly coming from second at this stage of the season is not particularly rare. Barnet's points tally isn't that great either - it's probably the total number of winning points will be quite low - I'm guessing around 90 points.

One other thing - we've also got to 23 games earlier than any other team



Now compare that with towns 2nd half of the season from the past 4 seasons or since being in the conference.


[URL=https://imgur.com/VCxdH2Y][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/VCxdH2Ys.jpg[/IMG][/URL][URL=https://imgur.com/uMRVvRe][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/uMRVvRes.jpg[/IMG][/URL][URL=https://imgur.com/5p7nllT][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/5p7nllTs.jpg[/IMG][/URL][URL=https://imgur.com/46BEw5M][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/46BEw5Ms.jpg[/IMG][/URL][URL=https://imgur.com/06NXnQF][IMG]https://i.imgur.com/06NXnQFs.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

My Grimsby Legends
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 1 - 27
mariner tommy
November 27, 2014, 6:38pm
Whiskey Drinker
Posts: 4,689
Posts Per Day: 1.18
Reputation: 73.82%
Rep Score: +12 / -5
Location: North East Lincs
Approval: +1,869
Gold Stars: 12
You've put a lot of work into that, well done.

UTM


                                   "Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its students."  ..Hector Berlioz, 1856.
                                   “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"  ...Voltaire, 1694-1778

Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 2 - 27
horsforthmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:53pm
Fine Wine Drinker
Posts: 1,287
Posts Per Day: 0.29
Reputation: 78.8%
Rep Score: +7 / -2
Approval: +2,575
Gold Stars: 8


Now compare that with towns 2nd half of the season from the past 4 seasons or since being in the conference.[/quote]

Ok

2013-2014 43 (7 35 -45%
2012-2013  43 (83) 40 -48%
2011-2012 29 (70) 41 – 58%
2010-2011  35 (62) 27 43%

This shows an average of 35.75 points in the second half of the season - which probably wouldn't see us into to the play offs.

The season we got the most in the second 23 games we played (like this season) our first 23 games by the end of november.

Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 3 - 27
horsforthmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:53pm
Fine Wine Drinker
Posts: 1,287
Posts Per Day: 0.29
Reputation: 78.8%
Rep Score: +7 / -2
Approval: +2,575
Gold Stars: 8
Quoted from mariner tommy
You've put a lot of work into that, well done.

UTM


thanks
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 4 - 27
northbankmariner
November 27, 2014, 6:57pm

Cocktail Drinker
Posts: 1,728
Posts Per Day: 0.33
Reputation: 87.61%
Rep Score: +27 / -3
Location: the wrong side of the bridge
Approval: +525
I know the total points amassed at the half way stage by town and Barnet is comparatively low compared to other seasons in this division, but could this be down to just how wide open and competitive this league really is? Teams really are taking points if each other quite regularly, and there seems plenty of draws also. This division has never been tighter and a lower points tally I believe will secure the title.


CLAP
CLAP
CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP
FISH
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 5 - 27
fleabag1970
November 27, 2014, 7:00pm
Fine Wine Drinker
Posts: 1,260
Posts Per Day: 0.28
Reputation: 80.72%
Rep Score: +13 / -3
Approval: -1,244
Problem is Town are always playing catch up .  The terms like  " If we win the next two and they lose both" have become an all to familar set of hopes that we cling onto . The only way to do is it like Luton last year . Take it by the scruff of the neck and attack teams , run at teams , scare teams . We are the Mighty Grimsby Town and who the intercourse are you ..............................


]Remember its just my opinion  ..... It might not be true ............
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 6 - 27
grimsby pete
November 27, 2014, 7:02pm

Exile
Posts: 55,548
Posts Per Day: 9.83
Reputation: 81.7%
Rep Score: +126 / -28
Location: Suffolk
Approval: +17,753
Gold Stars: 221
What has happened in the past is history,

All we need to do is Beat Barnet twice and get more points in the 2nd half of the season than anybody else,

Easy Peasy  


                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
                             68 Years following the Town

                              Life member of Trust

                               First game   April 1955
                               
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 7 - 27
Belfast Town
November 27, 2014, 7:16pm
Cocktail Drinker
Posts: 1,666
Posts Per Day: 0.33
Reputation: 84.69%
Rep Score: +14 / -2
Location: Belfast (obviously!)
Approval: +1,689
Gold Stars: 18
Apparently, if you split in half every season we've been in the conference - ie nine half seasons - this has been our sixth best half season. And we're second in the league. Not sure what this tells us, but basically I think it means we've got a hell of a chance of winning this fecker!!
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 8 - 27
moosey_club
November 27, 2014, 7:30pm
Barley Wine Drinker
Posts: 16,136
Posts Per Day: 2.71
Reputation: 76.19%
Rep Score: +69 / -22
Approval: +20,144
Gold Stars: 220
add in we will probably need to find an extra 10 points once we have some deducted for smoke bomb related crimes then we may as well start "planning next seasons conference promotion camaign on a slightly lesser budget" now.

Also the figure given is slightly skewed as there are teams with games in hand who can surpass our 23 game total so we may be further down the pecking order yet....plus we have just had a pretty extraordinary run of wins to gather our current total which i cannot see being maintained....play off lottery at best i think.


2023/24 DLWDDWDLLLWDLLLLWDDDWDLLWLDLLDWDDWL
2022/23LDWDWWDWLLDWWDLLLDLWLLWLWLLWDDLDWWDDDLLWDWLWLW
2021/22 WDWWWWDLWWWWLLLWLLDLWLLWWDWWWLWDLWWDWWWDLWD play offs WWW Promoted 🥳
2020/21  LLDWWLDLDWLWLLLDLWLLDLLDLLLWLLLDDDDWDDDLWLWLWL .. hello darkness my old friend
2019/20  WDLDWWLDLWWLLLDLDLDLDDWWDLLWDDWWL WLLW - ended
2018/19  LWDDLLLLLLWWDWLLLWDWLWWWWLLLLWWWWDLLLDDLLDLWLW Hello Scunny  
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 9 - 27
3 Pages 1 2 3 Next All Recommend Thread
Print

Fishy Forum Fishy Boards Archive › Can we win the title? - statistical geekery

Back to top of page

This is not an official forum of Grimsby Town Football Club, the opinions expressed are those of the individual authors. If you see an offensive post then click "Report" on the relevant post. Posts will be deleted at the discretion of the moderators whose decision is final. Posts should abide by the Forum Rules. IP addresses of contributors together with dates and times of access are stored. The opinions and viewpoints expressed by contributors to The Fishy are their own and not necessarily those of The Fishy. The Fishy makes no claims that information dispersed through this forum is accurate or reliable. Also The Fishy cannot be held liable for any statements made by contributors of The Fishy.