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Can we win the title? - statistical geekery

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moosey_club
November 28, 2014, 8:33am
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Quoted from MyDogsThoughts


I am really glad my glass is full: your half empty one must feel lighter by the second as you watch/wish it to evaporate before your eyes.


Half empty? Who said it had that much in it?  
Naturally pessimistic i am afraid, the table tells me one thing but my eyes tell me another.
So far this season i have not seen anything new to make me believe we are better equipped than last season, either squad, tactically or consistency wise.
Hopefully Saturdays change of formation and three points may open Hursts mind to the possibility of flexibility when it comes to selecting the team, however as he didnt seem impressed with how we played in the 3-1 win compared to the previous 0-2 loss then i wouldnt expect 4-4-2 to be a regular selection.
I will remain pessimistic until promotion is signed sealed and delivered, less heartache that way.


2023/24 DLWDDWDLLLWDLLLLWDDDWDLLWLDLLDWDDWL
2022/23LDWDWWDWLLDWWDLLLDLWLLWLWLLWDDLDWWDDDLLWDWLWLW
2021/22 WDWWWWDLWWWWLLLWLLDLWLLWWDWWWLWDLWWDWWWDLWD play offs WWW Promoted 🥳
2020/21  LLDWWLDLDWLWLLLDLWLLDLLDLLLWLLLDDDDWDDDLWLWLWL .. hello darkness my old friend
2019/20  WDLDWWLDLWWLLLDLDLDLDDWWDLLWDDWWL WLLW - ended
2018/19  LWDDLLLLLLWWDWLLLWDWLWWWWLLLLWWWWDLLLDDLLDLWLW Hello Scunny  
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MeanwoodMariner
November 28, 2014, 9:02am

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Good stats work. I suppose the other useful stat would be what points the 2nd place team tend to get. We may be off the pace compared to previous winners, but some of those title winners got many more points than they needed if that makes sense.
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TheRonRaffertyFanClub
November 28, 2014, 9:09am
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Quoted from MeanwoodMariner
Good stats work. I suppose the other useful stat would be what points the 2nd place team tend to get. We may be off the pace compared to previous winners, but some of those title winners got many more points than they needed if that makes sense.


I know what you mean but really the top teams did need those points. There comes a stage in most Conference seasons where Number One Spot teams become "invincible" or at least uncatchable. It's a psychological barrier for the rest of the league that appears to be rarely crossed. Very useful weapon for the top club though, so get the points in the bag and a good lead built up in February.



“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.”
― John Stuart Mill, On Liberty."
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Garth
November 28, 2014, 10:14am

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As long as( some one) looses the mentality of if we don`t win the game its not crucial to our standing, I will be happy
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TownSNAFU5
November 28, 2014, 10:31am
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I agree with a number of good points made above regarding the next 23 games.

Barnet might well feel the pressure of being leaders to date.  They have started losing games and have had 2 players sent off when playing a better team.

There is no logical reason that results should fall away this season just because they have in previous seasons.

Barnet  faltering gives us as much chance as a few other clubs of finishing top. (Even a dropped point by them means that we could be above them if we beat them twice).    We might feel the pressure with Hurst, however, our stronger desire to get promoted could be the crucial difference.    We have a better team and squad than in previous years.  
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springstomind
November 28, 2014, 11:19am

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Can't believe were exactly half way. We could estimate our points total and chances until the cows come home.  Let's start the second half of the season with 3 points away at Telford on Saturday. With Macclesfield playing Barnet and Woking playing Braintree (Never an easy opponent).  We could make up more ground yet.  UTM!
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RonMariner
November 28, 2014, 1:59pm

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Quoted from GrimRob
The most remarkable stat of the season so far is that our last four games have had a double digit in the middle of the attendance figure: 3443,1881,3446, 2663. I reckon the odds of that happening in thoes specific games are 10,000-1


I think you are correct. One in ten chance of it happening in any given match, and the chance of it happened four times consecutively is  0.1 to the power of 4, i.e. 0.0001. That's one in 10,000.
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sydney
November 28, 2014, 10:39pm
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All we need to do is attack
With this squad we have the quality
Halifax away for example this season, they scored, that drunk us off, we then dominated and did enough to win..
We don't need to set up each game to suit, we just need to set up to win
Come on Town!!
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