Run in

Know it's difficult but how many points do you think we need for the playoffs ?

Pos      Team      P      GD      Pts

View full table
No Movement 1      Fleetwood      39      52      92
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No Movement 2      Wrexham      37      49      86
No Movement 3      Mansfield      39      29      71
No Movement 4      Luton      37      31      66
No Movement 5      Southport      38      3      66
------------------------------------------------
No Movement 6      York      36      32      64
No Movement 7      Gateshead      38      6      63
No Movement 8      Grimsby      38      19      62
No Movement 9      Kidderminster      39      13      61
No Movement 10      Cambridge      37      11      56
No Movement 11      Forest Green      38      15      55
No Movement 12      Barrow      39      -5      55
No Movement 13      Braintree      38      -4      53
No Movement 14      Ebbsfleet      37      -9      46
No Movement 15      Tamworth      38      -15      44
No Movement 16      Alfreton      38      -26      38
No Movement 17      Telford      38      -19      36
No Movement 18      Newport      36      -9      35
No Movement 19      Stockport      39      -28      35
No Movement 20      Lincoln City      37      -17      33
No Movement 21      Hayes      38      -28      33
Moving up 22      Kettering      39      -45      32
Moving down 23      Darlington      37      -17      29
No Movement 24      Bath City      38      -38      24

Sat 24      15:00      A     Luton Town      BSQP                                 
Tue 27      19:45      A     Tamworth      BSQP                                 
Sat 31      15:00      H     Kidderminster      BSQP                                 
April
Sat 7      15:00      A     Darlington      BSQP                                 
Mon 9      15:00      H     Gateshead      BSQP                                 
Sat 14      15:00      A     Wrexham      BSQP                                 
Sat 21      15:00      A     AFC Telford      BSQP                                 
Sat 28      13:00      H     Southport      BSQP                           

I guess 16 pts from a remaining 24 = 78 POINTS

Is that enough ?

I think we'll need about 81 this season. Seems that this season has been a bit more competative than other seasons in terms of the play-off race, we'll need 79 at the very least I'd have thought.

Okey doke - in that case I'll go Draw vs Luton and Win vs Telford - that's 81 !  

My guess is:

Luton - Win
Tamworth - Win
Kiderminster - Draw
Darlington - Win
Wrexham - Lose
Gateshead - Draw
Telford - Win
Southport - Win

Points = 79

Personally I think we'll get 14 more points, finish on 76, and be a couple short of play-offs.

I think we will need 20 more points and must beat Kiddy, Gateshead and Luton to get 9 of them, only loss at Wrexham in hope they go up because I still thimk we owe Fleetwood a fair game.

Quoted from Madeleymariner

I think we will need 20 more points and must beat Kiddy, Gateshead and Luton to get 9 of them, only loss at Wrexham in hope they go up because I still thimk we owe Fleetwood a fair game.

I'd go with that. Our run in doesn't look that bad really with exception of Wrexham.

Quoted from Madeleymariner

I think we will need 20 more points and must beat Kiddy, Gateshead and Luton to get 9 of them

Not sure I agree we have to beat Luton.

Even if we lose vs them and Wrexham, really don't think it's unrealistic to say we can win the rest.

For one I wouldn't bet against us at home with half a sniff.
Only reason I thought Telford draw was cos they might be in a relegation scrap fighting for their lives. (though tbf that looks improbable)

First impression, a win vs Tamworth is HUGE but a win at Luton would be superb.

Sorry you're saying 20 pts (82) I'm saying 18. (80)

I could well see Rob and Paul getting the calculators out before we travel to Luton...

I think it will go down to this date,  Sat 28 april      13:00      H     Southport      BSQP  

Quoted from Marinerz93

I think it will go down to this date,  Sat 28 april      13:00      H     Southport      BSQP  

Yep I agree and hopefully the right outcome, I will never forget that last game of the season when Northampton scored in the last minute at the same time leyton orient scored was gutted

Statto alert!

No team has ever reached 80 points in this league and failed to make the playoffs.  I have a feeling that, as davmariner suggests, this could be the year that someone does.  

I guess that the high number of points likely to be needed to reach the playoffs is indicative of a bigger-than-normal gap between the good and the poor clubs in the league.  It's interesting to note just how much dross there is in this division: nine out of the 24 teams are averaging less than a point a game (eight if you discount Darlo's points deduction). That's a third of the teams losing twice as many as they win. No wonder the teams at the top have more than in previous seasons - there are so many easy pickings to be had.  (For comparison, the Championship has only 4 teams averaging less than 1 point per game, League One has 3, League Two has 4).

As someone has stated on another thread, it looks likely that a team in this league will reach 100 points but not get automatic promotion, and as we're saying here, one team (or more) might reach 80 but miss the play-offs. The flip side of that is that someone is going to stay up on a miserably low number of points - 40 perhaps?

I think it's fair to say we're unlikely to win all 8 of our remaining games. If we lose one and win the rest, we're on 83 which should be enough.  But any worse than that - one loss and one draw - leaves us on 81 which I think would be touch and go for the playoffs.

Other teams will drop points.....hopefully York, Luton & Southport intercourse up in great style allowing us to gallop in to seal promotion....we can hope

I've joined the sad b@stard club and looked at our rivals run ins..  

Hate to say it but yeah, think other posters are right, it don't look easy to get that final playoff place !  

What I said about being able to lose to Luton now looks complete and utter b0llocks. (my utmost apologies  )

Have I been overly generous to our rivals ?
Make of this what you will... (? = key game)

Mansfield (3RD)

March 2012
Sat 24th      Fleetwood Town      v      Mansfield      15:00 LOSS
Sat 31st      Mansfield      v      Ebbsfleet United15:00 WIN

April 2012
Sat 07th      Kettering      v      Mansfield      15:00 WIN
Mon 09th      Mansfield      v      Stockport      15:00 WIN
Sat 14th      Hayes & Yeading     v      Mansfield      15:00 WIN
Sat 21st      Mansfield      v      Wrexham      15:00 LOSS
Sat 28th      Kidderminster      v      Mansfield      13:00 DRAW

+ 13 = 84

Luton (4TH)

Sat 24th      Luton           v      GRIMSBY      15:00 ?
Fri 30th      Luton           v      York           19:30 ?

April 2012
Tue 03rd      Gateshead      v      Luton           19:45 ?
Sat 07th      Braintree Town      v      Luton           15:00 DRAW
Mon 09th      Luton           v      Hayes & Yeading 15:00 WIN
Sat 14th      Alfreton Town      v      Luton           15:00 WIN
Tue 17th      Luton           v      Ebbsfleet United19:45 WIN
Sat 21st      Luton           v      Kidderminster      15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      Fleetwood Town      v      Luton           13:00 LOSS

+13 + ? = 79 + ?

Southport (5TH)

March 2012
Sat 24th      York           v      Southport      15:00 ?
Tue 27th      Braintree Town      v      Southport      19:45 DRAW
Sat 31st      Southport      v      Hayes & Yeading 15:00 WIN

April 2012
Sat 07th      Southport      v      Kidderminster      15:00 DRAW
Mon 09th      Barrow      v      Southport      15:00 LOSS
Sat 14th      Tamworth      v      Southport      15:00 WIN
Sat 21st      Southport      v      Ebbsfleet United15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      GRIMSBY      v      Southport      13:00 LOSS

+ 11 + ? = 77 + ?

York (6th)

March 2012
Sat 24th      York           v      Southport      15:00 ?
Tue 27th      Bath City      v      York           19:45 WIN
Fri 30th      Luton      v      York           19:30 ?

April 2012
Tue 03rd      Newport County      v      York           19:45 WIN
Sat 07th      York           v      Fleetwood Town      15:00 LOSS
Mon 09th      Alfreton Town      v      York           15:00 WIN
Sat 14th      York           v      Newport County      15:00 WIN
Tue 17th      Cambridge Utd      v      York           19:45 LOSS
Sat 21st      Braintree Town      v      York           15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      York           v      Forest Green      13:00 WIN

+ 18 + ? = 82 + ?

Gateshead (7th)

March 2012
Sat 24th      Tamworth      v      Gateshead      15:00 WIN
Sat 31st      Newport County      v      Gateshead      15:00 DRAW

April 2012
Tue 03rd      Gateshead      v      Luton           19:45 ?
Sat 07th      Gateshead      v      Barrow           15:00 WIN
Mon 09th      GRIMSBY      v      Gateshead      15:00 LOSS
Sat 14th      Gateshead      v      Forest Green      15:00 DRAW
Sat 21st      Bath City      v      Gateshead      15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      Gateshead      v      AFC Telford      13:00 WIN

+ 14 + ? = 77 + ?

FINAL TABLE

Fleetwood
------------------------
Wrexham
Mansfield 84
York 82 + ?
TOWN ???????
-----------------------
Luton 79 + ?
Southport 77 + ?
Gateshead 77 + ?

Now I'm guessing Mansfield and York should make it.
Perhaps we should hope York stuff Southport this Saturday and Luton away the following Friday ?

If we draw with Luton, lose to Wrexham and win the rest it's 82 points.
If every ? above was a draw, Luton would be on 82 pts (according to MY predictions) and beat us on GD.

The Gateshead vs Luton game on 3rd April looks MASSIVE - I'm thinking a Gateshead win is good there but like everyone else, they can't afford to win everything in sight. (wouldn't it just be sods law if Micky Cummins got the last laugh over us ?  )

Conclusion ?

Maths wise, do we really need to beat them or would a draw be a good enough result ?

Right now I'm thinking the former - got an awful feeling if we draw, Luton and York will be happy to settle for a point each !!??  

I'm wondering if our best hope for promotion is if Luton's wheels fall off big time.
Best way to achieve that ?
Personally I'm thinking let's go for a monumental effort down there and really try to put them to the slaughter....
(Blimey ! Dare we in Luton ?!!  )

Asking too much ?
Or realistically, our best/only shot for that playoff place ? (and promotion later)
  
But hey, my predictions/assumptions may be totally wrong so please think for yourselves and help me out here...

The difference in points if we lose to Luton is too significant. We really need to win at Luton to make a plausible attempt at the play-offs as Luton aren't going to keep losing. York are most likely out of our reach, so we need to get past Gateshead, Luton and Southport. Of which, Luton will be the tricky one.

York and Mansfield are almost certs IMO for 3rd and 4th.

The wheels falling off at Luton is our only hope and even then we are competing with Gateshead,Southport and Kiddy for the 5th spot.

Not impossible but improbable.We've not won any 6 pointers this season and really need to change that at Luton on Saturday to have even a glimmer.

Apart from not winning against the sides at the top,we've also failed to see out quite a lot of games,which has cost us.Bath and Barrow away spring to mind.Should have won them both really,not to mention late goals against York twice and Fleetwood costing at least another three points.It's been a problem for the last few seasons and one we need to sort out.Could have happenened again last night despite us being in control for most of the match.Got to get more ruthless.

Luton have a tough run in and winning there would make them wobble even more.They didn't look up to much at BP,but still went away with the 3 points,which pretty much sums up why we are on the fringes and not right in there.

It's typical of Town that we end up in the Conference,when it is probably the best standard it has ever been and getting out of here is going to be one hell of an effort.

Dont try working it out, your just wasting your time.

Football is so unpredictable, so much football to be played aswell.

with heran we've got a chance, without hearn i think it's highly unlikely, especially based on last nights performance

Quoted from brad_gtfc

Dont try working it out, your just wasting your time.

Football is so unpredictable, so much football to be played aswell.

See where you're coming from I really do.

But I'm thinking it might prove crucial to our tactics and approach on the day. i.e. if we're drawing do we take big risks for the win ?

Whilst we wouldn't want to put our eggs in one basket too early, we wouldn't want to settle for what we might think is a good result only to regret it later either.

Sure 4 pts doesn't sound much does it ? But games run out faster and faster.
Delve a bit deeper, it's not as easy as it sounds IMO. (unless I'm being over-generous in my predictions ?)

I do promise I won't waffle on and on and bore people to death.  
But if anyone thinks a draw is a good or +ve result for our playoff challenge please DO make your case cos like brad says, it's not an exact science and I'm sure there's lots of different possible outcomes and ways of thinking about it.
Oh and don't just assume my maths or judgement is right either, I could be wrong !  

Madeley and mike502, you were both right on the money before, any thoughts on the effects a draw might have ?
(if you're bothered or sad enough to try to work it out like me ! )

Quoted from ginnywings

York and Mansfield are almost certs IMO for 3rd and 4th.

The wheels falling off at Luton is our only hope and even then we are competing with Gateshead,Southport and Kiddy for the 5th spot.

Not impossible but improbable.We've not won any 6 pointers this season and really need to change that at Luton on Saturday to have even a glimmer.

Apart from not winning against the sides at the top,we've also failed to see out quite a lot of games,which has cost us.Bath and Barrow away spring to mind.Should have won them both really,not to mention late goals against York twice and Fleetwood costing at least another three points.It's been a problem for the last few seasons and one we need to sort out.Could have happenened again last night despite us being in control for most of the match.Got to get more ruthless.

Luton have a tough run in and winning there would make them wobble even more.They didn't look up to much at BP,but still went away with the 3 points,which pretty much sums up why we are on the fringes and not right in there.

It's typical of Town that we end up in the Conference,when it is probably the best standard it has ever been and getting out of here is going to be one hell of an effort.

Great post.
Like the managers say we're capable of giving anyone a good game.
Your summary over the season puts it into a better perspective than we might first think.

We've proved we can go on a winning run once.
If we can learn those lessons you say, is anyone gonna say we can't do it all over again, only better ?  

Won't be easy we know that.
But hey, it's not easy to win 10 from 11 ! We've done it before !

So one game at a time and flipping COME ON TOWN we KNOW we can still do this ! !!!!
UTM.

I think we need to beat all those teams around us which allows us to drop a couple of points at lesser opposition. York are playing well and Mansfield have started scoring goals again, so its Luton we need to see off, which means we cannot afford to lose to them or the points gap requires one of those 3 going into complete meltdown. Remember they may only need 13/14 points to finish above us (4 or 5 wins) we are still reliant on those above us losing a fair few games.

Quoted from brad_gtfc

Dont try working it out, your just wasting your time.

Football is so unpredictable, so much football to be played aswell.

Where's the fun in that???

Its not fun, it worries me haha.

Luton not won in their lat 5 games? Must be the banker on Saturday.......

By my calculations/predictions all is not totally lost.
If we can win the lot (except for a defeat to Wrexham) we're on 81 pts which MIGHT be good enough if results go our way.
Don't beat Tamworth we then most likely need to win the lot (including Wrexham).

So realistically think Tamworth is MUST WIN.

The big one is still Luton.  

Fri 30th      Luton           v      York           19:30 ?

April 2012
Tue 03rd      Gateshead      v      Luton           19:45 ?

If York and Luton draw on Friday (bet you they do !) we're most probably gonna need a point at Wrexham too UNLESS Luton drop more points than predicted in these games (presuming Luton lose to Gateshead)

Sat 07th      Braintree Town      v      Luton           15:00 DRAW
Mon 09th      Luton           v      Hayes & Yeading 15:00 WIN
Sat 14th      Alfreton Town      v      Luton           15:00 WIN
Tue 17th      Luton           v      Ebbsfleet United19:45 WIN
Sat 21st      Luton           v      Kidderminster      15:00 WIN

If York drop points vs Bath this Tuesday(Bath win would be magic for us !) then not disaster if Luton beat York on Friday - but then it's YORK we need to keep dropping the points.

However we do need ideally need Southport to also start dropping points asap too starting away at Braintree on Tuesday.
Something like this would do...

Tue 27th      Braintree Town      v      Southport      19:45 DRAW
Sat 31st      Southport      v      Hayes & Yeading 15:00 WIN

April 2012
Sat 07th      Southport      v      Kidderminster      15:00 DRAW
Mon 09th      Barrow      v      Southport      15:00 LOSS
Sat 14th      Tamworth      v      Southport      15:00 WIN
Sat 21st      Southport      v      Ebbsfleet United15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      GRIMSBY      v      Southport      13:00 LOSS

So let's hope....

- We win on Tuesday !!!
- Southport and York drop points on Tuesday at Braintree and Bath respectively.
- if York win Tuesday then they also beat Luton away on Friday.
- Gateshead (who dropped pts today) then beat Luton at home the following Tuesday.

FINAL TABLE

Fleetwood
------------------------
Wrexham
Mansfield 84
York 82 + ?
TOWN 81
-----------------------
Luton 80 + ? + ?
Southport 80
Kiddy 77
Gateshead 75 + ?