Run in

Quoted from Marinerz93

I think it will go down to this date,  Sat 28 april      13:00      H     Southport      BSQP  

Yep I agree and hopefully the right outcome, I will never forget that last game of the season when Northampton scored in the last minute at the same time leyton orient scored was gutted

Statto alert!

No team has ever reached 80 points in this league and failed to make the playoffs.  I have a feeling that, as davmariner suggests, this could be the year that someone does.  

I guess that the high number of points likely to be needed to reach the playoffs is indicative of a bigger-than-normal gap between the good and the poor clubs in the league.  It's interesting to note just how much dross there is in this division: nine out of the 24 teams are averaging less than a point a game (eight if you discount Darlo's points deduction). That's a third of the teams losing twice as many as they win. No wonder the teams at the top have more than in previous seasons - there are so many easy pickings to be had.  (For comparison, the Championship has only 4 teams averaging less than 1 point per game, League One has 3, League Two has 4).

As someone has stated on another thread, it looks likely that a team in this league will reach 100 points but not get automatic promotion, and as we're saying here, one team (or more) might reach 80 but miss the play-offs. The flip side of that is that someone is going to stay up on a miserably low number of points - 40 perhaps?

I think it's fair to say we're unlikely to win all 8 of our remaining games. If we lose one and win the rest, we're on 83 which should be enough.  But any worse than that - one loss and one draw - leaves us on 81 which I think would be touch and go for the playoffs.

Other teams will drop points.....hopefully York, Luton & Southport intercourse up in great style allowing us to gallop in to seal promotion....we can hope

I've joined the sad b@stard club and looked at our rivals run ins..  

Hate to say it but yeah, think other posters are right, it don't look easy to get that final playoff place !  

What I said about being able to lose to Luton now looks complete and utter b0llocks. (my utmost apologies  )

Have I been overly generous to our rivals ?
Make of this what you will... (? = key game)

Mansfield (3RD)

March 2012
Sat 24th      Fleetwood Town      v      Mansfield      15:00 LOSS
Sat 31st      Mansfield      v      Ebbsfleet United15:00 WIN

April 2012
Sat 07th      Kettering      v      Mansfield      15:00 WIN
Mon 09th      Mansfield      v      Stockport      15:00 WIN
Sat 14th      Hayes & Yeading     v      Mansfield      15:00 WIN
Sat 21st      Mansfield      v      Wrexham      15:00 LOSS
Sat 28th      Kidderminster      v      Mansfield      13:00 DRAW

+ 13 = 84

Luton (4TH)

Sat 24th      Luton           v      GRIMSBY      15:00 ?
Fri 30th      Luton           v      York           19:30 ?

April 2012
Tue 03rd      Gateshead      v      Luton           19:45 ?
Sat 07th      Braintree Town      v      Luton           15:00 DRAW
Mon 09th      Luton           v      Hayes & Yeading 15:00 WIN
Sat 14th      Alfreton Town      v      Luton           15:00 WIN
Tue 17th      Luton           v      Ebbsfleet United19:45 WIN
Sat 21st      Luton           v      Kidderminster      15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      Fleetwood Town      v      Luton           13:00 LOSS

+13 + ? = 79 + ?

Southport (5TH)

March 2012
Sat 24th      York           v      Southport      15:00 ?
Tue 27th      Braintree Town      v      Southport      19:45 DRAW
Sat 31st      Southport      v      Hayes & Yeading 15:00 WIN

April 2012
Sat 07th      Southport      v      Kidderminster      15:00 DRAW
Mon 09th      Barrow      v      Southport      15:00 LOSS
Sat 14th      Tamworth      v      Southport      15:00 WIN
Sat 21st      Southport      v      Ebbsfleet United15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      GRIMSBY      v      Southport      13:00 LOSS

+ 11 + ? = 77 + ?

York (6th)

March 2012
Sat 24th      York           v      Southport      15:00 ?
Tue 27th      Bath City      v      York           19:45 WIN
Fri 30th      Luton      v      York           19:30 ?

April 2012
Tue 03rd      Newport County      v      York           19:45 WIN
Sat 07th      York           v      Fleetwood Town      15:00 LOSS
Mon 09th      Alfreton Town      v      York           15:00 WIN
Sat 14th      York           v      Newport County      15:00 WIN
Tue 17th      Cambridge Utd      v      York           19:45 LOSS
Sat 21st      Braintree Town      v      York           15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      York           v      Forest Green      13:00 WIN

+ 18 + ? = 82 + ?

Gateshead (7th)

March 2012
Sat 24th      Tamworth      v      Gateshead      15:00 WIN
Sat 31st      Newport County      v      Gateshead      15:00 DRAW

April 2012
Tue 03rd      Gateshead      v      Luton           19:45 ?
Sat 07th      Gateshead      v      Barrow           15:00 WIN
Mon 09th      GRIMSBY      v      Gateshead      15:00 LOSS
Sat 14th      Gateshead      v      Forest Green      15:00 DRAW
Sat 21st      Bath City      v      Gateshead      15:00 WIN
Sat 28th      Gateshead      v      AFC Telford      13:00 WIN

+ 14 + ? = 77 + ?

FINAL TABLE

Fleetwood
------------------------
Wrexham
Mansfield 84
York 82 + ?
TOWN ???????
-----------------------
Luton 79 + ?
Southport 77 + ?
Gateshead 77 + ?

Now I'm guessing Mansfield and York should make it.
Perhaps we should hope York stuff Southport this Saturday and Luton away the following Friday ?

If we draw with Luton, lose to Wrexham and win the rest it's 82 points.
If every ? above was a draw, Luton would be on 82 pts (according to MY predictions) and beat us on GD.

The Gateshead vs Luton game on 3rd April looks MASSIVE - I'm thinking a Gateshead win is good there but like everyone else, they can't afford to win everything in sight. (wouldn't it just be sods law if Micky Cummins got the last laugh over us ?  )

Conclusion ?

Maths wise, do we really need to beat them or would a draw be a good enough result ?

Right now I'm thinking the former - got an awful feeling if we draw, Luton and York will be happy to settle for a point each !!??  

I'm wondering if our best hope for promotion is if Luton's wheels fall off big time.
Best way to achieve that ?
Personally I'm thinking let's go for a monumental effort down there and really try to put them to the slaughter....
(Blimey ! Dare we in Luton ?!!  )

Asking too much ?
Or realistically, our best/only shot for that playoff place ? (and promotion later)
  
But hey, my predictions/assumptions may be totally wrong so please think for yourselves and help me out here...

The difference in points if we lose to Luton is too significant. We really need to win at Luton to make a plausible attempt at the play-offs as Luton aren't going to keep losing. York are most likely out of our reach, so we need to get past Gateshead, Luton and Southport. Of which, Luton will be the tricky one.

York and Mansfield are almost certs IMO for 3rd and 4th.

The wheels falling off at Luton is our only hope and even then we are competing with Gateshead,Southport and Kiddy for the 5th spot.

Not impossible but improbable.We've not won any 6 pointers this season and really need to change that at Luton on Saturday to have even a glimmer.

Apart from not winning against the sides at the top,we've also failed to see out quite a lot of games,which has cost us.Bath and Barrow away spring to mind.Should have won them both really,not to mention late goals against York twice and Fleetwood costing at least another three points.It's been a problem for the last few seasons and one we need to sort out.Could have happenened again last night despite us being in control for most of the match.Got to get more ruthless.

Luton have a tough run in and winning there would make them wobble even more.They didn't look up to much at BP,but still went away with the 3 points,which pretty much sums up why we are on the fringes and not right in there.

It's typical of Town that we end up in the Conference,when it is probably the best standard it has ever been and getting out of here is going to be one hell of an effort.

Dont try working it out, your just wasting your time.

Football is so unpredictable, so much football to be played aswell.

with heran we've got a chance, without hearn i think it's highly unlikely, especially based on last nights performance

Quoted from brad_gtfc

Dont try working it out, your just wasting your time.

Football is so unpredictable, so much football to be played aswell.

See where you're coming from I really do.

But I'm thinking it might prove crucial to our tactics and approach on the day. i.e. if we're drawing do we take big risks for the win ?

Whilst we wouldn't want to put our eggs in one basket too early, we wouldn't want to settle for what we might think is a good result only to regret it later either.

Sure 4 pts doesn't sound much does it ? But games run out faster and faster.
Delve a bit deeper, it's not as easy as it sounds IMO. (unless I'm being over-generous in my predictions ?)

I do promise I won't waffle on and on and bore people to death.  
But if anyone thinks a draw is a good or +ve result for our playoff challenge please DO make your case cos like brad says, it's not an exact science and I'm sure there's lots of different possible outcomes and ways of thinking about it.
Oh and don't just assume my maths or judgement is right either, I could be wrong !  

Madeley and mike502, you were both right on the money before, any thoughts on the effects a draw might have ?
(if you're bothered or sad enough to try to work it out like me ! )

Quoted from ginnywings

York and Mansfield are almost certs IMO for 3rd and 4th.

The wheels falling off at Luton is our only hope and even then we are competing with Gateshead,Southport and Kiddy for the 5th spot.

Not impossible but improbable.We've not won any 6 pointers this season and really need to change that at Luton on Saturday to have even a glimmer.

Apart from not winning against the sides at the top,we've also failed to see out quite a lot of games,which has cost us.Bath and Barrow away spring to mind.Should have won them both really,not to mention late goals against York twice and Fleetwood costing at least another three points.It's been a problem for the last few seasons and one we need to sort out.Could have happenened again last night despite us being in control for most of the match.Got to get more ruthless.

Luton have a tough run in and winning there would make them wobble even more.They didn't look up to much at BP,but still went away with the 3 points,which pretty much sums up why we are on the fringes and not right in there.

It's typical of Town that we end up in the Conference,when it is probably the best standard it has ever been and getting out of here is going to be one hell of an effort.

Great post.
Like the managers say we're capable of giving anyone a good game.
Your summary over the season puts it into a better perspective than we might first think.

We've proved we can go on a winning run once.
If we can learn those lessons you say, is anyone gonna say we can't do it all over again, only better ?  

Won't be easy we know that.
But hey, it's not easy to win 10 from 11 ! We've done it before !

So one game at a time and flipping COME ON TOWN we KNOW we can still do this ! !!!!
UTM.

I think we need to beat all those teams around us which allows us to drop a couple of points at lesser opposition. York are playing well and Mansfield have started scoring goals again, so its Luton we need to see off, which means we cannot afford to lose to them or the points gap requires one of those 3 going into complete meltdown. Remember they may only need 13/14 points to finish above us (4 or 5 wins) we are still reliant on those above us losing a fair few games.