The Play Offs - Is it likely

Is it too early in the development of of S&H's squad to consider this team capable of making the play offs this season?

Plenty of points left to play for. Hitting some spending form and even have a game in hand on two or three of the teams above us. Loads of six pointers left to play.

Cast your votes. Do you think we are going to make it?

It's doable. Although I can't see it myself. I see S&H building for the future and it's all very exciting at GTFC at the moment.

Positivity breeds success. 2 more additions (1 CB and a CM, as usual) and we're laughing.

I look at the table and it is certainly do-able but I have this horrible feeling we've left it just too late.

It has to be said I'm often wrong when predicting the future. Anyone want to buy any Greek bonds?

I doubt it ,even now were on a decent run we dont seem to be gaining real ground.however many we win we always seem to be about 10 points off the play offs

We threw away a lot of points earlier in the season. To have a realistic chance we have to keep this form going but also win at places like Luton, Cambridge and Darlo. Perhaps a bit too much of an ask for this season.

It is certainly doable on current form BUT we need a couple of quality additions. Personally think we'll finish just outside but have a very good foundation for a real go next season.

Not too early for the squad (though it's still changing), points gap might be though, who knows.
All we can do is keep beating what's in front of us.

Next corner to turn is beating the top teams - if we do that we'll be looking great whether it's success this season or next.

Not this season.

I think it's too late for this season, but stranger things have happened. 3 months ago we'd have have lost yesterday, but this squad seem to have a bit of fight in them, led by the ever improving Elding. There's a few youngsters in there so inevitably mistakes will be made, but aslong as they learn from the mistakes I can live with that.

As others have said, it is do-able, but aslong as we keep improving, building, we have a solid foundation to really have a push to the title next season.

Course we can! Two wins in the next two will have us knocking on the door!

Cant see it myself, but like others said next year if we keep the majority of the side together it could be our year, IMO we a in a similar position as york was this time last year, but we need to keep the side together get rid of any dead wood
e.g Garner....  
Going back to this season, never say never but i cant see it myself

Here's a laugh for you. From the Lincoln board on talking about DH being their new messiah:

"
I think the telling time will be the players he starts next season with after a mid table or possible near the play offs finish finish this season, which would be quite an achievment considering the state of the team before he arrived!"

Possible near the play off finish?! I'll have some of what he's on!

I'd settle for a finish around 9th or 10th this season, get a bit of stability and improving our away form. Hopefully keeping the majority of the squad together in the summer with very little chopping and changing, couple in couple out.... That's how good teams build!

Onwards and upwards!

UTM!

its crucial how january goes,if we can beat the gimps and alfreton i think the momentum and fan support will get us into the play offs.

utm

There is too much ground to make.  We have been on an unbeaten run but are still well outside the playoffs.  Our poor goal difference costs us another point.

If one team slips up in the top 5 there is always another team to take their place.  With only 20 odd games left there is little time to make up the deficit.  There are a lot of teams above us to overtake.

You would be looking at finishing above York or Luton. Do you see this happening?

Beating York at home in Feb provides a chance. All teams will strengthen in Jan.

Our central defence and centre midfield are not good enough to challenge.  Sorry.

no chance, 10 points is alot to make up on teams who keep winning as well, remember they are in the top 5 because they are decent. In order for us to make up that many points we have to win at least 4 games while they lose 4 games (and they don't lose many), not likely to happen, we almost have to be on title challenging form between now and the end, and we arn't good enough for that.

Our good run in form co-incides with playing the rubbish teams in the division, we havn't played a top side since October and only really play one more decent side again before York in February.

If we are within touching distance 3-5 points by then we have a chance if we can start beating the top 6/7 sides.

I don't see it happening and I would be happy with around 10th and building a decent platform for a promotion push next season, anything more this season will be a bonus.

Won't be happening I think. We are too far behind and town really are known for building up your hope an then dissapointing you. But I guess you never know what can happen in football

Looking at our recent good run, we've mostly been beating teams below us in the table . I think we'll just miss the play-offs, but storm the league next season.

to those people who are saying that we are only winning due to poor teams. anybody can beat anybody so you are wrong. scott and hurst has made us more organised and has made us fitter also they are good young managers with a young team and we are getting better.

It's a poor league. We seem to have sorted our defence barring the odd member up and we are potent up front. I note our goals for column matches the team at the top (Wrexham I think) and we are on a run. The team appear to be in it together, and they always give their all.

I see no reason why we can't finish 5th and win the play offs. Then immediately kick on to league one.

IMHO:

In a nutshell, it is possible but unlikely. I cannot see us catching York or Luton but I do predicted that Southport will drop off and fall down the table. There is usually a team that shoots up the BSP in the second half of the season and if we get our act together and strengthen our weaknesses we can be that team.

Quoted from 75

It's a poor league. We seem to have sorted our defence barring the odd member up and we are potent up front. I note our goals for column matches the team at the top (Wrexham I think) and we are on a run. The team appear to be in it together, and they always give their all.

I see no reason why we can't finish 5th and win the play offs. Then immediately kick on to league one.

If, IF, we did get promoted I feel it's a certainty we'd be in the mix for another promotion.
Think our year will be next year though.

We need to keep the positive vibes going so it's a big yes from me. UTM

Quoted from davmariner

IMHO:

In a nutshell, it is possible but unlikely. I cannot see us catching York or Luton but I do predicted that Southport will drop off and fall down the table. There is usually a team that shoots up the BSP in the second half of the season and if we get our act together and strengthen our weaknesses we can be that team.

WHS i think we will probably fall just short but at home were going to stuff some teams and nobody will want to play us at fortress BP.

Quoted from aaron rattray

to those people who are saying that we are only winning due to poor teams. anybody can beat anybody so you are wrong. scott and hurst has made us more organised and has made us fitter also they are good young managers with a young team and we are getting better.

Normally you spout rubbish, not this time though kidda

Quoted from cod.gtfc

no chance, 10 points is alot to make up on teams who keep winning as well, remember they are in the top 5 because they are decent. In order for us to make up that many points we have to win at least 4 games while they lose 4 games (and they don't lose many), not likely to happen, we almost have to be on title challenging form between now and the end, and we arn't good enough for that.

Our good run in form co-incides with playing the rubbish teams in the division, we havn't played a top side since October and only really play one more decent side again before York in February.

If we are within touching distance 3-5 points by then we have a chance if we can start beating the top 6/7 sides.

I don't see it happening and I would be happy with around 10th and building a decent platform for a promotion push next season, anything more this season will be a bonus.

I reckon this is about right although I hope not - had £10 on a win promotion/FA Trophy double to win £3500+. A man can dream, can't he?!

This is a very young side and is making progress in the right direction, with a few more experienced and quality brought in it is possible.

There are another 63 points left to play for, so why can't we be there or thereabouts? A lot of teams strengthen in January but teams also lose players to league clubs so its swings and roundabouts really. Darlo are bound to lose players in in the coming weeks and I suspect League clubs will pounce on a few of the better players from the likes of Southport and York.

Quoted from aaron rattray

to those people who are saying that we are only winning due to poor teams. anybody can beat anybody so you are wrong. Scott and Hurst has made us more organised and has made us fitter also they are good young managers with a young team and we are getting better.

I reckon your right still if we only make top 5 I for one will be pleased and then go for it with our young team I must admit I was wrong about S&H they are working real well  with the club and fans.

how far back where carlise in our playoff year, it can be done 10 points is nothing over 4 months of football, being a gy fan,and a pessimist, i dont think we will though

Didn't Carlisle go top after beating us first game of the New Year.

Hearn, I'Anson and McKewon will all be in demand in the summer, regardless of what league we are in.   Hope I'm wrong but I think we've left it too late and a summer of replacing key players is ahead, albeit potentially with a larger transfer pot.  

Quoted from diehardmariner

Didn't Carlisle go top after beating us first game of the New Year.

Hearn, I'Anson and McKewon will all be in demand in the summer, regardless of what league we are in.   Hope I'm wrong but I think we've left it too late and a summer of replacing key players is ahead, albeit potentially with a larger transfer pot.  

we need to offer him a contract extension, as i believe it runs out in summer

63 points to play for 10 points behind, we surly can do this 10 home games left !! if we win them thats 30 points. We should also pick up some points away from home so if we can get another 40 points i think we would then be well in for a shout of the play-offs come on let believe we can do it and back the team all the way to the end ....

And then who knows

UTM  

OK, some historical perspective (i.e. dull statistics!) - and it has to be said that history isn't on our side... listed below are the top 5 in the conference in each of the last 9 seasons, with in brackets their positions at the turn of the year and, for the lowest-placed team, the gap to 5th place.

No-one has come from lower than 12th in the table at New Year to make the playoffs, nor have they made up a gap of more than 8 points on the 5th place team.  

Of course, that doesn't mean that making up a 10 point gap is unfeasible - indeed, in 2009/10, although Luton were only 4 points off the playoffs at New Year, they were 15 points behind Oxford and 8 behind York; yet they finished 2 ahead of Oxford and 10 ahead of York, having picked up 50 points from their last 23 games.  We'd likely need a run like that - 46 points from the remaining 21 games - to get us into the playoffs.

2010/11
1. Crawley (3); 2. Wimbledon (1); 3. Luton (4); 4. Wrexham (8 - 4 points off 5th); 5. Fleetwood (5)

2009/10
1. Stevenage (2); 2. Luton (7); 3. Oxford (1); 4. Rushden & D (8 - 6 points off 5th); 5. York (3)

2008/09
1. Burton (1); 2. Cambridge (6); 3. Histon (2); 4. Torquay (5); 5. Stevenage (9 - 8 points off 5th)

2007/08
1. Aldershot (1); 2. Cambridge (4); 3. Torquay (2); 4. Exeter (7 - 2 points off 5th); 5. Burton (5)

2006/07
1. Dagenham & R (1); 2. Oxford (2); 3. Morecambe (5); 4. York (7); 5. Exeter (8 - 6 points off 5th)

2005/06
1. Accrington (1); 2. Hereford (6 - 3 points off 5th); 3. Grays (3); 4. Halifax (5); 5. Morecambe (4)

2004/05
1. Barnet (1); 2. Hereford (3); 3. Carlisle (2); 4. Aldershot (12 - 3 points off 5th); 5. Stevenage (4)

2003/04
1. Chester (1); 2. Hereford (2); 3. Shrewsbury (5); 4. Barnet (4); 5. Aldershot (3)

2002/03
1. Yeovil (1); 2. Morecambe (5); 3. Doncaster (2); 4. Chester (3); 5. Dagenham & R (10 - 6 points off 5th)

Interesting to see that the season before Stevenage went up they were in a fairly similar situation to where we are now. Plenty to play for, not likely but its doable.

Quoted from mike502

OK, some historical perspective (i.e. dull statistics!) - and it has to be said that history isn't on our side... listed below are the top 5 in the conference in each of the last 9 seasons, with in brackets their positions at the turn of the year and, for the lowest-placed team, the gap to 5th place.

No-one has come from lower than 12th in the table at New Year to make the playoffs, nor have they made up a gap of more than 8 points on the 5th place team.  

Of course, that doesn't mean that making up a 10 point gap is unfeasible - indeed, in 2009/10, although Luton were only 4 points off the playoffs at New Year, they were 15 points behind Oxford and 8 behind York; yet they finished 2 ahead of Oxford and 10 ahead of York, having picked up 50 points from their last 23 games.  We'd likely need a run like that - 46 points from the remaining 21 games - to get us into the playoffs.

2010/11
1. Crawley (3); 2. Wimbledon (1); 3. Luton (4); 4. Wrexham (8 - 4 points off 5th); 5. Fleetwood (5)


So as Roy Castle would have said the Mariners could be RECORD BREAKERS.

2009/10
1. Stevenage (2); 2. Luton (7); 3. Oxford (1); 4. Rushden & D (8 - 6 points off 5th); 5. York (3)

2008/09
1. Burton (1); 2. Cambridge (6); 3. Histon (2); 4. Torquay (5); 5. Stevenage (9 - 8 points off 5th)

2007/08
1. Aldershot (1); 2. Cambridge (4); 3. Torquay (2); 4. Exeter (7 - 2 points off 5th); 5. Burton (5)

2006/07
1. Dagenham & R (1); 2. Oxford (2); 3. Morecambe (5); 4. York (7); 5. Exeter (8 - 6 points off 5th)

2005/06
1. Accrington (1); 2. Hereford (6 - 3 points off 5th); 3. Grays (3); 4. Halifax (5); 5. Morecambe (4)

2004/05
1. Barnet (1); 2. Hereford (3); 3. Carlisle (2); 4. Aldershot (12 - 3 points off 5th); 5. Stevenage (4)

2003/04
1. Chester (1); 2. Hereford (2); 3. Shrewsbury (5); 4. Barnet (4); 5. Aldershot (3)

2002/03
1. Yeovil (1); 2. Morecambe (5); 3. Doncaster (2); 4. Chester (3); 5. Dagenham & R (10 - 6 points off 5th)

Quoted from mike502

OK, some historical perspective (i.e. dull statistics!) - and it has to be said that history isn't on our side... listed below are the top 5 in the conference in each of the last 9 seasons, with in brackets their positions at the turn of the year and, for the lowest-placed team, the gap to 5th place.

No-one has come from lower than 12th in the table at New Year to make the playoffs, nor have they made up a gap of more than 8 points on the 5th place team.  

Of course, that doesn't mean that making up a 10 point gap is unfeasible - indeed, in 2009/10, although Luton were only 4 points off the playoffs at New Year, they were 15 points behind Oxford and 8 behind York; yet they finished 2 ahead of Oxford and 10 ahead of York, having picked up 50 points from their last 23 games.  We'd likely need a run like that - 46 points from the remaining 21 games - to get us into the playoffs.

2010/11
1. Crawley (3); 2. Wimbledon (1); 3. Luton (4); 4. Wrexham (8 - 4 points off 5th); 5. Fleetwood (5)

2009/10
1. Stevenage (2); 2. Luton (7); 3. Oxford (1); 4. Rushden & D (8 - 6 points off 5th); 5. York (3)

2008/09
1. Burton (1); 2. Cambridge (6); 3. Histon (2); 4. Torquay (5); 5. Stevenage (9 - 8 points off 5th)

2007/08
1. Aldershot (1); 2. Cambridge (4); 3. Torquay (2); 4. Exeter (7 - 2 points off 5th); 5. Burton (5)

2006/07
1. Dagenham & R (1); 2. Oxford (2); 3. Morecambe (5); 4. York (7); 5. Exeter (8 - 6 points off 5th)

2005/06
1. Accrington (1); 2. Hereford (6 - 3 points off 5th); 3. Grays (3); 4. Halifax (5); 5. Morecambe (4)

2004/05
1. Barnet (1); 2. Hereford (3); 3. Carlisle (2); 4. Aldershot (12 - 3 points off 5th); 5. Stevenage (4)

2003/04
1. Chester (1); 2. Hereford (2); 3. Shrewsbury (5); 4. Barnet (4); 5. Aldershot (3)

2002/03
1. Yeovil (1); 2. Morecambe (5); 3. Doncaster (2); 4. Chester (3); 5. Dagenham & R (10 - 6 points off 5th)

So as Roy Castle would have said the Mariners could be RECORD BREAKERS.

Quoted from gaz57

So as Roy Castle would have said the Mariners could be RECORD BREAKERS.

Yes, but only if they have dedication... that's what you need.

if people stop sitting at home or checking the score on here and get to the gamr that will improve our finances and make it easier. GET TO THE GAMES

Quoted from aaron rattray

if people stop sitting at home or checking the score on here and get to the gamr that will improve our finances and make it easier. GET TO THE GAMES

IMO ! thats the best ever post you have made on here Aaron well done young man  

I don't think we'll make it this season, and financially, next season it could be too late...

Because I'm such a sad illegitimate I've calculated the average points total that the 5th team in the playoffs finished on in the last 5 years, which is 79. So that would mean we would need at least another 44 points from the next 21 games (as we're currently on 35) which would mean we'd need just over 2 points from every game. 44 points looks a lot but in terms of wins it'd take 15 wins to take us to 80 points.

I think we can win these matches:

Lincoln (H)
Alfreton (A)
Bath (H)
Barrow (A)
Hayes (A)
Braintree (H)
Tamworth (H)
Darlo (A)

This isn't anywhere near 79 points so IMHO I don't think we'll manage it this year.

Darlo going in to admin will help but still a massive long shot.

To those who keep saying there are 63 points to play for so 10 points to make up is nothing need to realise those teams in the top 5 don't drop points easily, so everytime we win theres a good chance they will win too, hence why its difficult to make up the gap, and hence why history shows teams don't make up 10 point gaps with less than half a season to go.

Southport have lost 6, the others have lost 3 or 4, with less than half the season left you expect them to lose another 4 minimum while we win/draw for the rest of the season and not lose

Not likely, be like me and be happy with finishing 10th-12th after the poor start we had and be estactic if we somehow scrape 5th, instead of thinking we can finish in the play-offs and being upset when we don't.

Quoted from cod.gtfc

To those who keep saying there are 63 points to play for so 10 points to make up is nothing need to realise those teams in the top 5 don't drop points easily, so everytime we win theres a good chance they will win too, hence why its difficult to make up the gap, and hence why history shows teams don't make up 10 point gaps with less than half a season to go.

Southport have lost 6, the others have lost 3 or 4, with less than half the season left you expect them to lose another 4 minimum while we win/draw for the rest of the season and not lose

Not likely, be like me and be happy with finishing 10th-12th after the poor start we had and be estactic if we somehow scrape 5th, instead of thinking we can finish in the play-offs and being upset when we don't.

Very well said, we can't just rely on ourselves. It's out of our hands and I think we shouldn't be too disappointed if we finish 9th-12th place

Of course its likely we only have 1 defeat in 13 games and even that was in extra time to a team a league lower granted but as soon as we sort our way form out  and go for the kill we can easily make a serge

Quoted from Super Clive

Of course its likely we only have 1 defeat in 13 games and even that was in extra time to a team a league lower granted but as soon as we sort our way form out  and go for the kill we can easily make a serge

a serge with serge makofo? the next barrymore strikes again

Quoted from Super Clive

Of course its likely we only have 1 defeat in 13 games and even that was in extra time to a team a league lower granted but as soon as we sort our way form out  and go for the kill we can easily make a serge

a serge with serge makofo? the next barrymore strikes again

Quoted from aaron rattray

a serge with serge makofo? the next barrymore strikes again

Good lord, stop it my sides are splitting..

Quoted from aaron rattray

a serge with serge makofo? the next barrymore strikes again

Please stop using this Aaron. It's too painful for my eyes!

my line is trademark and i shall use it until the second i die

Quoted from aaron rattray

my line is trademark and i shall use it until the second i die

Hope you don't end up dead in a swimming pool with semen inside your body after being the guest at a party.

As for the play offs, its not impossible, we just need to be consistent (something we struggle with way too often).

Quoted from davmariner

Because I'm such a sad illegitimate I've calculated the average points total that the 5th team in the playoffs finished on in the last 5 years, which is 79.

I've joined the sad illegitimate club too.
Notice that Luton(5th) and Kiddermister(6th) have managed 1.8 pts per game so far.
Keep that going they end up with 82.8 points so your figure seems a fair enough yardstick. (hey let's give ourselves a chance !  )

Quoted from davmariner

So that would mean we would need at least another 44 points from the next 21 games (as we're currently on 35) which would mean we'd need just over 2 points from every game. 44 points looks a lot but in terms of wins it'd take 15 wins to take us to 80 points.

I think we can win these matches:

Lincoln (H)
Alfreton (A)
Bath (H)
Barrow (A)
Hayes (A)
Braintree (H)
Tamworth (H)
Darlo (A)

This isn't anywhere near 79 points so IMHO I don't think we'll manage it this year.

I copied the OS fixtures(no I didn't type it !) doing it on the basis we'll win most at home and drop points in the tough ones.

                                   POINTS          
Sun 1      15:00      H     Lincoln City      BSQP WIN     3                                      
Sat 7      15:00      A     Alfreton Town      BSQP WIN     3                                
Tue 10      19:45      A     Cambridge      BSQP LOSE     0                           
Sat 21      15:00      H     Bath City              BSQP WIN     3                           
Tue 24      19:45      A     Barrow           BSQP DRAW1                           
Sat 28      15:00      H     AFC Telford      BSQP WIN     3                          
February
Sat 4      15:00      A     Tamworth              BSQP LOSE     0                           
Sat 11      15:00      H     York City              BSQP DRAW1                                
Sat 18      15:00      A     Southport              BSQP LOSE     0                           
Sat 25      15:00      A     Hayes&Yeading      BSQP WIN     3                                
March
Sat 3      15:00      H     Braintree Town      BSQP WIN     3                           
Tue 6      19:45      A     Fleetwood Town      BSQP LOSE     0                                
Sat 10      15:00      H     Forest Green      BSQP WIN     3                                
Sat 17      15:00      H     Tamworth              BSQP DRAW1                                
Sat 24      15:00      A     Luton Town      BSQP LOSE     0                                
Sat 31      15:00      H     Kidderminster      BSQP DRAW1                                
April
Sat 7      15:00      A     Darlington              BSQP WIN     3                                
Mon 9      15:00      H     Gateshead         BSQP WIN     3                                
Sat 14      15:00      A     Wrexham              BSQP LOSE     0                                
Sat 21      15:00      A     AFC Telford        BSQP DRAW1                           
Sat 28      15:00      H     Southport             BSQP WIN 3

So:
                 P    W    D     L   Pts
HOME         10   7     3     0  24  
AWAY         11   3     2     6  11
TOTAL        21   10   5     6  35


Grand total = 70 pts, 9 points short.

But this is still based on a conservative and relatively poor away record, not a team flying or beating ANY of the top teams.

Tough ask, I just think if we can really go from strength to strength and fly anything is possible.
Remember some people thought avoiding relegation was impossible but we nearly avoided that, just got going too late.

Basically we've got to play like title challengers home and away.
Not impossible but we really need to spread our wings away...  

Conclusion - can't afford (m)any slip ups and we need 3-4 EXTRA AWAY WINS from:
Cambridge, Barrow, Tamworth, Southport, Fleetwood, Luton, Wrexham, Telford. (room for 6 extra points at home to help do this..)

Here's a good yardstick.

We can afford to lose to ALL the top teams away (Cambridge, Tamworth*, Southport, Fleetwood, Luton, Wrexham) but win ALL our other fixtures (15 x 3 = 45) we've most probably done it with 80 points.  

Now the bar can't afford to drop more than maybe once in terms of disappointing results.
But whilst we keep on winning with enough vital momentum to keep improving and smash almost everything in sight I believe it's possible...

Let's do a Stanley!
Last year they had a similar start to us. come Christmas they went on a great run and went from 4th bottom to sitting comfortably in the playoffs. If we can keep the run up we're on then yes we can do the same.

Then all we have todo is win the play offs!

Quoted from 1600

I've joined the sad illegitimate club too.
Notice that Luton(5th) and Kiddermister(6th) have managed 1.8 pts per game so far.
Keep that going they end up with 82.8 points so your figure seems a fair enough yardstick. (hey let's give ourselves a chance !  )

Just to keep the sad illegitimate theme going...
If you look at the 46-game seasons in the conference, no team has ever failed to reach the playoffs if they got 80 points or more (whereas Kiddy finished in sixth place on 79 in 2008/09).  Conversely, no team has ever reached the playoffs having amassed fewer than 78.  So 80 looks to be the target.

That means 45 points from twenty-one games, which corresponds to 15 points from each seven games... and 15 points is exactly what we've got over the past seven games. So "all" we need to do is to replicate our form of the past seven games another three times over.

The problem, of course, is that our last seven games included games against four of the bottom six, and no-one higher than ninth.  Our remaining schedule includes nine games against the top eight, five of them away from home.

That said, the next seven-game block looks good; the difficult stretch starts in mid-February with York and Southport on consecutive weekends. If we manage to get 15 points or more from the next seven, and pick up something from York and Southport, I'll begin to believe it's possible.