Covid passports for football

Quoted from Maringer

Stop being childish.

Look at figure H from this image:

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGHZOwMXoAURYix?format=jpg&name=large[/img]

That's from one of the early serological studies against Omicron.

Best response would seem to be for those with a combination of vaccination and infection. Hence the pithy 'Super Immune' tag.

From what we know of other coronaviruses, immunity seems to be cumulative - as the virus mutates, you become infected and develop immunity to the new strains. Your past immune response is improved each time. The difference, of course, is that the other coronaviruses have been with us for hundreds of years, not less than two. Anybody with particular vulnerability to those viruses have has their genes selected out of existence. Hopefully, it will be possible to avoid this happening with this new particular coronavirus.

Interesting to see some proper evidence, but in the graphs neither axis is labelled, nor is there a key to the colour code. Without these they are impossible to interpret.

Quoted from joe56

Interesting to see some proper evidence, but in the graphs neither axis is labelled, nor is there a key to the colour code. Without these they are impossible to interpret.

This isn’t a dog at our fellow mariner but the cynic would say there’s possibly a reason for that…

Quoted from aldi_01

This isn’t a dog at our fellow mariner but the cynic would say there’s possibly a reason for that…

😉

Quoted from joe56

Interesting to see some proper evidence, but in the graphs neither axis is labelled, nor is there a key to the colour code. Without these they are impossible to interpret.

Eh? I mentioned it was one of the first studies looking at neutralisation of the Omicron variant. IC50 is explained here as you could have easily found with a quick search:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IC50

The variants the neutralisation tests were carried out against are shown on the bottom. Each graph shows the vaccine combination (or infection/vaccine status in the case of chart H). The points on the lines show how effective antibodies from various samples (from different people) proved to be. The colours don't do anything but show the variant tested as shown on the x-axis.

Pretty obvious from the various charts that neutralisation of Omicron drops to nothing from AZ but remains very good for those with a combination of vaccination and prior infection. The Moderna numbers are a surprise though. Might be something to do with the age groups.

Dig noted, aldi01.

Also noted that the Covid doubters are trying to distract from the data with personal digs.

Quoted from Maringer

Eh? I mentioned it was one of the first studies looking at neutralisation of the Omicron variant. IC50 is explained here as you could have easily found with a quick search:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IC50

The variants the neutralisation tests were carried out against are shown on the bottom. Each graph shows the vaccine combination (or infection/vaccine status in the case of chart H). The points on the lines show how effective antibodies from various samples (from different people) proved to be. The colours don't do anything but show the variant tested as shown on the x-axis.

Pretty obvious from the various charts that neutralisation of Omicron drops to nothing from AZ but remains very good for those with a combination of vaccination and prior infection. The Moderna numbers are a surprise though. Might be something to do with the age groups.

Dig noted, aldi01.

Also noted that the Covid doubters are trying to distract from the data with personal digs.

I just feel that it would have been helpful to have had the variables and values clearly defined at the outset. It shouldn’t be necessary for us to start searching the literature to find out for ourselves. Thank you for explaining IC50 and the B values for the independent variable. I just wish that this had been done in your original post. The danger is that we make intuitive guesses, and get it wrong. Anyway, as I said, it’s good to see someone back up their argument with real evidence, and, for what it’s worth, I think it’s hard to argue with the case you’ve made.

I assumed people would recognise the B codes from earlier in the year, but then I have read a lot more about this stuff than most. The other thing I should have pointed out from the chart is that Omicron (B.1.1.529) is so infectious that, if you've had Covid in the past, whether the original virus last year, Alpha, or Delta, you've got pretty much no protection against reinfection (charts E to G). Probably still have reasonably good protection against serious illness, but get yourself vaccinated as well and you'll have the best protection you can get.

Also, the fact that the government has just announced it plans to basically shut down half of the stuff the NHS usually does until the end of the month to try and get the boosters rolled out to adults as quickly as possible is probably a pretty good indication that the crap is about to hit the fan. The fact that they haven't announced any other measures to try and slow the spread shows how utterly disjointed their approach has become. It is estimated that prevalence of Omicron was around 30% in London last Wednesday (i.e. 30% of Covid cases will have been Omicron). The absolute number is likely to have more than quadrupled since, possibly more if super-spreading events in bars and clubs have occurred (which they surely have). Omicron likely to be the dominant strain in London right now, so cases will rocket by next weekend.

What numbers are currently available?
The Yellow Card reporting scheme has reported that between 9 December 2020 and 8 September 2021 there were 1,645 deaths where the person died shortly after receiving one of the coronavirus vaccines. This is the number of deaths reported as possibly linked to a vaccine, however they will not have been fully investigated at the time of reporting and a report is not proof of causation. So, the numbers are likely to be a big overestimate. The MHRA follow up all such reports and use other sources of evidence such as the numbers of individuals who would be expected to experience different events irrespective of vaccination.

In contrast, the different statistical agencies have reported that to August 2021 (June 2021 in Northern Ireland) there were 4 deaths in England, 0 deaths in Wales, 4 deaths in Scotland and 1 in Northern Ireland. Of these, 4 in Scotland and 1 in Northern Ireland had the vaccine as the underlying cause of death. This meant that there were 9 deaths in the UK that involved the vaccine (meaning the vaccine contributed to the death), of which 5 had the vaccine as the underlying cause (meaning the vaccine initiated the chain of events directly leading to the death). For these deaths, there was evidence to suggest that the vaccine played a part in the chain of events that led to the death.

Source: https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died-as-a-result-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/

As a relatively healthy 29 year old I'd like the opportunity to live 'freely and normally', as the government have put it, without being forced to into taking up this vaccine. I don't think that is unreasonable, given the stats.

Quoted from RobDef1

What numbers are currently available?
The Yellow Card reporting scheme has reported that between 9 December 2020 and 8 September 2021 there were 1,645 deaths where the person died shortly after receiving one of the coronavirus vaccines. This is the number of deaths reported as possibly linked to a vaccine, however they will not have been fully investigated at the time of reporting and a report is not proof of causation. So, the numbers are likely to be a big overestimate. The MHRA follow up all such reports and use other sources of evidence such as the numbers of individuals who would be expected to experience different events irrespective of vaccination.

In contrast, the different statistical agencies have reported that to August 2021 (June 2021 in Northern Ireland) there were 4 deaths in England, 0 deaths in Wales, 4 deaths in Scotland and 1 in Northern Ireland. Of these, 4 in Scotland and 1 in Northern Ireland had the vaccine as the underlying cause of death. This meant that there were 9 deaths in the UK that involved the vaccine (meaning the vaccine contributed to the death), of which 5 had the vaccine as the underlying cause (meaning the vaccine initiated the chain of events directly leading to the death). For these deaths, there was evidence to suggest that the vaccine played a part in the chain of events that led to the death.


Source: https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died-as-a-result-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/

As a relatively healthy 29 year old I'd like the opportunity to live 'freely and normally', as the government have put it, without being forced to into taking up this vaccine. I don't think that is unreasonable, given the stats.

Also worth considering that 'Covid deaths' are relatable to the top figure in that report rather than the second (arguably more accurate) figure. On the other hand, the figures above are in relation to deaths, not including other severe side effects.

If you don't want to be vaccinated, you'll get Omicron in due course. Or perhaps Delta, if the two end up co-existing side by side, which is a possibility, apparently. Initial data from South Africa (which had 3 big waves as well and much lower vaccination) show that prior infection with earlier variants offers very little protection against Omicron once you're a few months past infection. You'll probably retain pretty good protection against serious illness (in comparison to unvaccinated folk) due to the prior infection, however. I just don't really understand why you wouldn't want to improve your protection? Even a single dose of a vaccine would improve the breadth of your body's immune response so you're better fit to deal with future variants. Not certain yet, but it's assumed that those vaccinated are less likely to develop Long Covid symptoms. Not a lot known about what triggers this in some people, however, so perhaps not. I'd imagine the data will show it one way or the other in due course.

The Yellow Card report thing has been done to death elsewhere. Anyone can make a Yellow Card report (you don't even need to be a medical professional) and 99.9% of the reports on there will have nothing to do with the vaccination programme. Literally billions of doses of the mRNA vaccines have been given around the world and the data shows that they are extremely safe.

For the heart complications which are an incredibly rare side-effect of the vaccines, the risk of developing similar problems after Covid infection is many times higher, so if you want to take your chances in that regard, fair enough.

Ultimately, the government has passed a law requiring Covid passports for certain events. If you don't want to get vaccinated, then you can't go to them. It's your right to be unhappy with this, but I think you'll find that most people agree with the government stance so you'll struggle to find a political party to back which would overturn the rules. Wouldn't surprise me to see the passports becoming a very short-term measure, however.

Quoted from Maringer

If you don't want to be vaccinated, you'll get Omicron in due course. Or perhaps Delta, if the two end up co-existing side by side, which is a possibility, apparently. Initial data from South Africa (which had 3 big waves as well and much lower vaccination) show that prior infection with earlier variants offers very little protection against Omicron once you're a few months past infection. You'll probably retain pretty good protection against serious illness (in comparison to unvaccinated folk) due to the prior infection, however. I just don't really understand why you wouldn't want to improve your protection? Even a single dose of a vaccine would improve the breadth of your body's immune response so you're better fit to deal with future variants. Not certain yet, but it's assumed that those vaccinated are less likely to develop Long Covid symptoms. Not a lot known about what triggers this in some people, however, so perhaps not. I'd imagine the data will show it one way or the other in due course.

The Yellow Card report thing has been done to death elsewhere. Anyone can make a Yellow Card report (you don't even need to be a medical professional) and 99.9% of the reports on there will have nothing to do with the vaccination programme. Literally billions of doses of the mRNA vaccines have been given around the world and the data shows that they are extremely safe.

For the heart complications which are an incredibly rare side-effect of the vaccines, the risk of developing similar problems after Covid infection is many times higher, so if you want to take your chances in that regard, fair enough.

Ultimately, the government has passed a law requiring Covid passports for certain events. If you don't want to get vaccinated, then you can't go to them. It's your right to be unhappy with this, but I think you'll find that most people agree with the government stance so you'll struggle to find a political party to back which would overturn the rules. Wouldn't surprise me to see the passports becoming a very short-term measure, however.

Is that the same South Africa who's medical professionals and scientists are absolutely perplexed by our over-reaction to omicron? A strain of Covid that they're calling 'a god-send'? As for why I wouldn't want to 'improve my protection', well I'm weighing that up against the risk of the vaccine itself, as seen above. Add that to the pressure the government are putting on people to take it, and deep scepticism is aroused. As said before, I've had Covid, and didn't really suffer with it, certainly not enough to prompt me to take a vaccine that itself comes with risks.

And lets not downplay the seriousness of not being allowed to certain events if not vaccinated, where do we draw that line? 12 months ago where we are now was unthinkable. Freedoms are being taken away from us as a result of personal bodily autonomy. If that doesn't worry people then what will? Other than what the benevolent government tell you to worry about.