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Just done a quick bit of maths, and despite a frustrating season, I think we're actually in quite a good position as things stand. More so than is immediately obvious anyway.
In the past 2 seasons, we have sold more season tickets than our average attendances across every season since 2003, gates which would have been buoyed by large away followings in the second tier. That on the surface sounds like good news, and it is certainly symbolic of the renewed optimism JS and AP have instilled in the club and the town. But if the last two seasons have taught us anything, it's probably a little bit beyond our "sweet spot" for season ticket sales.
We know from our most recent accounts that we sold a total of 5,754 season tickets in the 22/23 season, at an average price of £222.54. I don't know the exact numbers, but for simplicity I'm going to assume that there was a straight 10% increase in average price this season and into next, giving us an average of £244.70. Again, I don't have the exact number, but I believe this season we sold in the region of 5,300 season tickets, and had an average gate of 6,354 - an additional 1,054 paying punters each game. Again, for simplicity, assume with concessions, that's at an average price of £15 per match day ticket.
5,300 season tickets = £1,296,906
1,054 match day tickets x 23 = £363,630
Total = £1,660,536
OK, so I think even with the very generous pricing of next season's season tickets, it's fair to expect a sizeable drop off. Let's assume we lose 1,000 STs, falling by just shy of 20% to 4,300 (still decent by historic standards).
4,300 season tickets = £1,052,207 (-18.9%)
Ok, on the surface a ~19% YoY drop in guaranteed income doesn't sound like a particularly good thing, but let's look at some scenarios. The total average attendance is the first number, with the incremental match day sales in brackets, and the £ figure being the total ST + match-by-match ticket income for the season:
5,000 (700) = £1,293,707 (-22.1%)
5,500 (1,200) = £1,466,207 (-11.7%)
6,000 (1,700) = £1,638,707 (-1.3%)
6,500 (2,200) = £1,811,207 (+9.1%)
7,000 (2,700) = £1,983,707 (+19.5%)
I'll stop there, as with our ground and the state of away followings in this division, it's probably going to be difficult to average above 7,000, but the point is with lower season ticket sales (and a greater availability of decent seats on the day) a small incremental increase in average gate has the potential to translate into a much more significant % of matchday income. In effect, a 10% increase in gates becomes a 20% increase in income.
The key, ultimately, is getting there. Either way, we're better insulated against falling income than might have been anticipated. Realistically, we'd have to drop below gates of 6,000 to be noticeably worse off, and simply having a less shít season than this one should be sufficient to enable that (a pretty low bar), with an additional tail wind in the easing of ST no-shows. We're in an ok position, I think.
Note: there's a slight flaw in this model in which it assumes that all season ticket holders attend every game and the only incremental sales are over and above this number, which we know isn't the case. However, again with a lower baseline number of STs, this is another factor that should work in our favour with a half-decent season.
I think the note about the flaw is significant, most games will have had in excess of 7k tickets sold and for most games the unsold home seats number fewer than 600 and when the Osmond corner is home fans, I would say fewer than 200 unsold. Therefore, as you say, if we have a really good season, revenue could go up with lower ST sales. However we are losing more away fans than we are gaining especially if Donny go up. On the basis that the Osmond will be allocated to home fans again total matchday seats available over the season available to home fans will go up even if ST sales stay the same as current. Since promotion we have sold out a number games when we have the corner, but have yet to sell it a game when have had the Osmond. If we challenging for top 3 I think we would be able to sell out the Osmond which with segregation would give us circa 7.6k home places. But if we are mid-table for most games there will be plenty of capacity. So in summary, we need to sell as many STs as possible and smart move by 1878… |
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| Mappers |
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Champagne Drinker  Posts: 2,396
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Just done a quick bit of maths, and despite a frustrating season, I think we're actually in quite a good position as things stand. More so than is immediately obvious anyway.
In the past 2 seasons, we have sold more season tickets than our average attendances across every season since 2003, gates which would have been buoyed by large away followings in the second tier. That on the surface sounds like good news, and it is certainly symbolic of the renewed optimism JS and AP have instilled in the club and the town. But if the last two seasons have taught us anything, it's probably a little bit beyond our "sweet spot" for season ticket sales.
We know from our most recent accounts that we sold a total of 5,754 season tickets in the 22/23 season, at an average price of £222.54. I don't know the exact numbers, but for simplicity I'm going to assume that there was a straight 10% increase in average price this season and into next, giving us an average of £244.70. Again, I don't have the exact number, but I believe this season we sold in the region of 5,300 season tickets, and had an average gate of 6,354 - an additional 1,054 paying punters each game. Again, for simplicity, assume with concessions, that's at an average price of £15 per match day ticket.
5,300 season tickets = £1,296,906
1,054 match day tickets x 23 = £363,630
Total = £1,660,536
OK, so I think even with the very generous pricing of next season's season tickets, it's fair to expect a sizeable drop off. Let's assume we lose 1,000 STs, falling by just shy of 20% to 4,300 (still decent by historic standards).
4,300 season tickets = £1,052,207 (-18.9%)
Ok, on the surface a ~19% YoY drop in guaranteed income doesn't sound like a particularly good thing, but let's look at some scenarios. The total average attendance is the first number, with the incremental match day sales in brackets, and the £ figure being the total ST + match-by-match ticket income for the season:
5,000 (700) = £1,293,707 (-22.1%)
5,500 (1,200) = £1,466,207 (-11.7%)
6,000 (1,700) = £1,638,707 (-1.3%)
6,500 (2,200) = £1,811,207 (+9.1%)
7,000 (2,700) = £1,983,707 (+19.5%)
I'll stop there, as with our ground and the state of away followings in this division, it's probably going to be difficult to average above 7,000, but the point is with lower season ticket sales (and a greater availability of decent seats on the day) a small incremental increase in average gate has the potential to translate into a much more significant % of matchday income. In effect, a 10% increase in gates becomes a 20% increase in income.
The key, ultimately, is getting there. Either way, we're better insulated against falling income than might have been anticipated. Realistically, we'd have to drop below gates of 6,000 to be noticeably worse off, and simply having a less shít season than this one should be sufficient to enable that (a pretty low bar), with an additional tail wind in the easing of ST no-shows. We're in an ok position, I think.
Note: there's a slight flaw in this model in which it assumes that all season ticket holders attend every game and the only incremental sales are over and above this number, which we know isn't the case. However, again with a lower baseline number of STs, this is another factor that should work in our favour with a half-decent season.
I don't think we will lose a thousand mate , maybe a few hundred - total sales this season were around 5700 in the end, Stockwood said at the fans forum I think or in an interview . If we had gone down or they had raised the prices significantly I think there might have been a large drop off,however they have seemingly read the room well. I get a feeling the majority will give them another season benefit of the doubt / goodwill but another terrible one next time out and those figures will really dip I suspect . We have to hope they get it right |
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I'm not renewing mine. I've had enough with where I sit. Hoping that some become freed up in the Upper.
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| MrsMariner |
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I might be mistaken but the end of May seems a lot earlier than usual for the cut-off of the “early bird” prices” (we didn’t even know what division we’d be in at the beginning of June two years ago”. I imagine there’s an element of wanting to get an early idea of what the demand is going to look like, given the turbulent season we’ve just had.
Surely the early bird price is still the end of June as normal after which it goes to the new full price. The end of May price is a special frozen price which seems very generous by the club in the present climate. |
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| Lost in Lincoln |
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Formerly siy2k5 Snakebite drinker Posts: 407
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That’s strange. Countless other clubs have done just that. What makes us a special case?
Google is your friend.
I love a good stat, but on sale dates for season tickets is a bit niche even for me.
Surely if there are 'countless' clubs, you could name a couple? |
| First game: 7/5/88 Aldershot (h) 1-1 (R) |
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| aussiej |
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Its all well and good contributors giving out fictional figures based on our season ticket sales and attendance figures but our average attendance is no were near the average ticket sales per game. The later one being the most important one had an average close to 7000. That is the figure you should use when working out the math.
It's about time tickets sold per game was given out as the official attendance. It would show more realistically how we were doing financially and would follow what most other clubs are doing.
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| golfer |
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Vodka Drinker  Posts: 6,932
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...........
It's good that the club have frozen prices, but it does raise the question why ST haven’t been on sale for a couple of months. It would have given the club/owners an earlier and more accurate forecast of likely final sales and how that effects budgets and more importantly how much in losses will need to be bridged.
It just seems bizarre that a business would wait 11 days from their last contact with an existing customer before trying to get them to continue their custom for another year.
A couple of months ago I would definitely not have bought a season ticket |
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| WayneBurnettsJockstrap |
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if only I didnt work for an employers who pays you on the flipping 8th of the month!!
Ouch! Slightly odd date to choose for them. But hopefully the club extend the early bird period by a couple of weeks and you'll be happy as Larry (as long as Larry has got his early bird tickets too) |
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| GollyGTFC |
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Surely if there are 'countless' clubs, you could name a couple?
Google "Season tickets 2024/25 release date". If you do you'll see clubs that started selling STs as early as February. i.e. long before anyone can guarantee which league they will be in. Here's a couple for free though... Sutton United - sales began 25th March. Wrexham - sales began 21st March. |
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 ancientmariner54 |
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A couple of months ago I would definitely not have bought a season ticket
Why , they're still your team aren't they . You can't not go just cos we've had a dodgy season surely .U.T.M. |
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