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 Maringer |
| December 19, 2021, 8:48pm |
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Barley Wine Drinker  Posts: 11,252
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Interesting article on SAGE & modeling. https://www.spectator.co.uk/ar.....-modelling-committeeThe latest Sage paper-drop — the 6,000-deaths-a-day one — refers to ‘scenarios,’ not predictions. Professor Medley emphasises the distinction: saying something could happen is not saying that there's a realistic chance of it happening. But then why do Sage modellers publish some scenarios and not others?
Let's see what the guy himself says when questioned on the Spectator article: Tweet 1472322935658627076 will appear here... Unsurprising to see Fraser Nelson deliberately 'misunderstand' the conversation to misrepresent what Medley was saying as Fraser has long been in the Covid-minimising camp. The article is in the Spectator (of course) and The Telegraph (of course). Any other right-wing Covid denialist places he can get it published in, I wonder? This is what the argument is reduced to - disingenuously claiming that scientists are trying to hoodwink the public for political reasons, even though all the data from their modelling is ultimately published, including all the assumptions made. If anybody wants to pick through it themselves, they can do, but no, instead the deniers attempt to cast doubt on motives instead. Pretty pathetic. |
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| aldi_01 |
| December 19, 2021, 10:02pm |
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How do you get in to or on to the SAGE committee? Genuine question…and in truth he still just says the make up scenarios; you don’t have to be a scientist to do that.
They’ve got access to data but we know data can be manipulated in any which way.
As I said to someone blathering on about the need for a lockdown, it’s easy to call for one when you’ve job security, salary, ability to work from home etc but many haven’t that luxury or ability. A lockdown for many is equally as dangerous, just in a different way…
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| 'the poor and the needy are selfish and greedy'...well done Mozza |
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| Maringer |
| December 19, 2021, 11:22pm |
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Barley Wine Drinker Posts: 11,252
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Appointed by the government, I expect. Probably a case that experts have been appointed on the advice of the various medical officers over the years and these may join and leave depending on the requirements of the situation. Perhaps a quango?
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| KingstonMariner |
| December 19, 2021, 11:42pm |
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Meths Drinker  Posts: 22,096
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Surely a scenario is a prediction and in truth, perhaps they have access to whichever data they want, a prediction is just that. A prediction.
I could sit on my fat hairy bottom and say that millions will not get Omicron or whatever new variant they discover around the time of the next large public holiday and that’s all it is, a prediction. I could equally say millions will get it.
One thing that has been clear throughout this whole thing is the variation in gathering and sharing data.
Not everybody tests, not everyone is unvaccinated, not everyone that’s been recorded as a covid death died from covid or even complications caused by covid.
It’s all a mess and lockdowns will do nothing to really help long term. I’ve made more referrals in the last year to mental health services than I’ve ever had, and I’ve even had to help adults/parent/careers self refer too.
Whilst I’d agree to some extent that covid can’t be blamed for a spike in suicides, it’s multifaceted and not as simple as putting a finger on one thing, suicide is, for me, a far bigger concern. It’s prevalent and the counties underfunding of mental health services and social care are creating a pandemic but people are getting wrapped up in worrying about a couple of people not wearing a mask rather than issues that have been apparent before covid and will be significantly increased after…
I mean, we’re 137k beds less since tory austerity, those beds may have helped the pressure on the NHS during all this…but still, it’s easier for Boris and co to guilt trip us and blame everyone except themselves…
Difference is between SAGE and you is they know what they're talking about and you knows much as Humbojoke. |
| Through the door there came familiar laughter,
I saw your face and heard you call my name.
Oh my friend we're older but no wiser,
For in our hearts the dreams are still the same. |
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| aldi_01 |
| December 20, 2021, 8:21am |
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Difference is between SAGE and you is they know what they're talking about and you knows much as Humbojoke.
But, assuming they’re government appointed, credibility is naturally questioned which was my point. Much like when the government appointed Tom Bennett as behaviour Tsar in school, he was nominated because he was happy to champion the government narrative. After the mess that’s been caused, anything linked to the government lacks any credibility now. There’s literally no trust in anything, I was happy to believe the science, as they kept telling us but now there’s an impossibility to any of that. Sad really because I suspect the vast majority are right but with trust and belief diminished in many it just gets even messier… |
| 'the poor and the needy are selfish and greedy'...well done Mozza |
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| Roast Em Bobby |
| December 20, 2021, 9:07am |
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The thing I don't get with your line of argument is that you seem to think the government want to lock things down and you suggest they use SAGE as an excuse to do that.
I just don't see that being the case at all. As far as I can see SAGE are saying urgent action is required immediately and the govt is trying anything to avoid that, mainly because the hard right Conservative MPs are going bat-excrement crazy.
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| ginnywings |
| December 20, 2021, 10:12pm |
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The thing I don't get with your line of argument is that you seem to think the government want to lock things down and you suggest they use SAGE as an excuse to do that.
I just don't see that being the case at all. As far as I can see SAGE are saying urgent action is required immediately and the govt is trying anything to avoid that, mainly because the hard right Conservative MPs are going bat-excrement crazy.
Exactly! They are also sh1t scared of the public reaction and how it will affect their standing in the polls. I expect they will lock us down after crimbo, when it will be too little, too late. That's their usual default position. |
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| aldi_01 |
| December 21, 2021, 8:37am |
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Exactly!
They are also sh1t scared of the public reaction and how it will affect their standing in the polls.
I expect they will lock us down after crimbo, when it will be too little, too late. That's their usual default position.
Which is just bizarre. That’s been the weird thing about it all, from the very beginning, in almost every country, rules introduced because it’s life threatening yet we have to wait a week, or they’re introduced on a staggered approach…nothing makes any sort of sense. Nothing at all… |
| 'the poor and the needy are selfish and greedy'...well done Mozza |
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| Roast Em Bobby |
| December 21, 2021, 11:39am |
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It makes perfect sense to me why the government delay every time. The Conservatives are made up of and funded by people whose only two interests are the economy and staying in power. They are the people who own the city/town centres and most business within them. Despite their claims, they are not interested in issues like mental health or eductaion, they've been cutting funding for both for years. Boris was even quoted last year (when dithering over the 2nd wave - "let the bodies pile up" - admitedly it was Dominic Cummins who claimed this.
The only equation in their minds when they know a new wave is coming is "How long can we keep the economy going and avoid govt. support before we lose public approval (knowing that a capitulated NHS would seriously affect their chances of re-election).
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| Stadium |
| December 21, 2021, 4:14pm |
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Champagne Drinker  Posts: 2,346
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Dither and delay again. Tweet 1473316238306783238 will appear here... |
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“There's nothing wrong with the car except that it's on fire.”- Murray Walker
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