League Two - xG Data

Some interesting data coming out of the ever-intriguing Experimental 3-6-1 site. First up, the League Two table based on xG (or expected goals).

In a nutshell, it estimates that we should have been expected to score a further 10 goals, carrying us up 11 places from 16th to 5th, above both Leyton Orient (currently top) and Northampton (currently 3rd).

[img]https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/2023-01-02-103.png[/img]

Some understandably question how meaningful xG actually is, but taken at face value it really does underline how season-defining our ability to recruit a top striker or two in the window could be.

Perhaps even more surprising is the xG progression of the Salford game, which suggests we should have run out comfortable winners.

[img]https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/2022-12-29-grimsby-salford.png[/img]

That’s possibly a questionable outlook, and the data is no doubt influenced by the fact that they sat back in the second half, but does perhaps suggest the overall performance was better than the result, which was defined by a handful of great finishes, individual mistakes and flukey deflections.

Do with it what you will, I just thought it was mildly interesting.

From what I've seen, all the, what statisticians call, big indicators, have us much further down the league than we should be. Those include shots on target, big chances conceded, progressions up the pitch, time spent in opposition half, passes into the final third and touches in the box. We're well in the top half of most of those I think, suggesting we've underperformed in terms of points relative to our actual performances.

As Poojah says, merely indicates that signing the right striker this window could really make or break our season. 5 points of the playoffs with a game in hand. Imagine if the table looked like that one!

Not into all this xG crap.

The only statistic that matters is how many times you put the ball into the net!

Quoted from Poojah

Some interesting data coming out of the ever-intriguing Experimental 3-6-1 site. First up, the League Two table based on xG (or expected goals).

In a nutshell, it estimates that we should have been expected to score a further 10 goals, carrying us up 11 places from 16th to 5th, above both Leyton Orient (currently top) and Northampton (currently 3rd).

[img]https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/2023-01-02-103.png[/img]

Some understandably question how meaningful xG actually is, but taken at face value it really does underline how season-defining our ability to recruit a top striker or two in the window could be.

Perhaps even more surprising is the xG progression of the Salford game, which suggests we should have run out comfortable winners.

[img]https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/2022-12-29-grimsby-salford.png[/img]

That’s possibly a questionable outlook, and the data is no doubt influenced by the fact that they sat back in the second half, but does perhaps suggest the overall performance was better than the result, which was defined by a handful of great finishes, individual mistakes and flukey deflections.

Do with it what you will, I just thought it was mildly interesting.

Reflects the two-goal salvo, a schoolboy error followed by a freak goal, that sank us when we were on top after the equaliser.

Could someone please explain to a mere simpleton what xG is and how they work it out?
Looks like something that a statistition with no knowledge of football has come up with.

Quoted from mimma

Could someone please explain to a mere simpleton what xG is and how they work it out?
Looks like something that a statistition with no knowledge of football has come up with.

The expected number of goals based off quality of the shots you take, based on factors like where the shot is taken etc. a penalty or shot from 6 yards out has a far higher xG than a popshot from 30 yards.

Quoted from mimma

Could someone please explain to a mere simpleton what xG is and how they work it out?
Looks like something that a statistition with no knowledge of football has come up with.

Some nerds basically determine the statistical likelihood of scoring a goal from each attempt, based on things like distance from goal, angle, body part used and some subjective shite like if it's a 'big chance' and the 'pattern of play', and then give it a score from 0 (no chance of ever scoring a goal) to 1 (100% chance of scoring a goal). Basically if a chance has an xG of 0.79 (such as a penalty), then it should result in a goal 79 times out of 100 (statistically 79% of penalties are converted into goals). Someone hitting a backheeled shot from 30 yards at an acute angle would probably be given an xG on the effort of like 0.02. I don't massively rate it as a method for analysing the performance of a team within a match or over a season - I think really all it does is tell you is if you've got some good or poor finishers in your team (and it seems our finishing this season has been poor based on xG).

If there had been xG data about 40 years ago then it would have been saying I would have got laid every night, but as always in the real world it wasn’t quite like that.

Quoted from Les Brechin

Not into all this xG crap.

The only statistic that matters is how many times you put the ball into the net!

In terms of points, of course, but there’s a reason club’s employ data analysts; it helps you understand the where and the why behind the bottom-line results you’re getting.

For me, this helps reaffirm what we already know - that we’re light in quality when it comes to what happens in the box. If we can solve that in the window, I honestly believe we have an exciting rest of the season ahead of us.

So, us and Stockport are the biggest movers upwards, may be worth a punt for us both to reach the play-offs (if we sign that striker).

I recall looking at something similar for our 2016 promotion season - we were way out at the top.