Can we make the Playoffs? Some stats.

Here's some stats... cos I'm sad (but love stats)

2010-2019 - 46 games per season - team finishing 7th is average of 73pts (haven't included last two seasons as they were disrupted/curtailed)

73 divided by 46 = 1.59pts per game

There are 44 games this season - 44 x 1.59 = 70pts

So - on average and historically - we need another 8 pts from a possible 24

That seems strangely low and almost unrealistic - but perhaps it highlights greater strength in depth with far fewer easy points these days?

Highest points total in those seasons finishing 7th was 76 (1.65 per game x 44 = 73); so we need 11pts from 24

I'm suddenly far more confident...

Think we are now capable of beating anyone home or away because we have added a couple of players that can score vital goals in Holohan and JMD, with Clifton also getting into goal scoring positions more, which is probably down to us having a better balanced midfield now.

Of course, we are also capable of losing home or away, but so is any team. Our record against the top end sides isn't great but none of them have looked way better than us. We have at least matched them all but not got what we deserved in some of them, mainly down to not taking our chances. The only side that have looked better than us to my mind is Solihull surprisingly, and I wouldn't want to have to go there and beat them, as they score a lot of goals at home. We have won at Notts and Chesterfield already and been the better side, so no fear there. We held our own at Wrexham too but that failure to nick a goal cost us. Same story at Halifax. We are a better side now though and in better form.

I'm hoping we can get to 5th spot and make the task of negotiating the play offs a bit more favourable. When we won them last time, we defied the odds as I think we were the only team to ever come back from a home leg loss to get to the final.

The new format leaves no room for error. You win or you are out, so it takes two or three good performances and we look to be in good form. Hope it continues.

Personally think we will need at least 80pts to guarantee 5th place and  84 to get even have a chance of 3rd place unless a lot of the top teams bomb.

We should go out to win every game. I’d be surprised if we don’t win at least 4 games plus a draw
Making 75 points.
Would not be surprised if we win 7, making 83 points, enough for 4th

Halifax v Solihull and Daggers v Borehamwood tonight, another couple of big ones. Relatively speaking

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

We should go out to win every game. I’d be surprised if we don’t win at least 4 games plus a draw
Making 75 points.
Would not be surprised if we win 7, making 83 points, enough for 4th

You wouldn't be surprised if we won 7 out of 8? Have you considered a lie down?

Quoted from devs

Here's some stats... cos I'm sad (but love stats)

2010-2019 - 46 games per season - team finishing 7th is average of 73pts (haven't included last two seasons as they were disrupted/curtailed)

73 divided by 46 = 1.59pts per game

There are 44 games this season - 44 x 1.59 = 70pts

So - on average and historically - we need another 8 pts from a possible 24

That seems strangely low and almost unrealistic - but perhaps it highlights greater strength in depth with far fewer easy points these days?

Highest points total in those seasons finishing 7th was 76 (1.65 per game x 44 = 73); so we need 11pts from 24

I'm suddenly far more confident...

Its getting all theoretical now... but surely we do not even have to match the 7th place average. 1 point more than the 8th place average total (whatever that is) would be enough.

Quoted from immariner

You wouldn't be surprised if we won 7 out of 8? Have you considered a lie down?

Not had a drink since yesterday but will raise a glass this evening if results go well

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

Not had a drink since yesterdaybut will raise a glass this evening if results go well

Worryingly you made that sound like an achievement 😬

Just had a quick play with the calculator, using the simple rule that current highest placed team in terms of PPG wins, with a 4 place handicap for the away team (so you do end up with a few draws for realism).

Now, obviously this isn’t perfect as it assumes the top sides do nothing silly against the also rans, but it does give you a sense of the theoretical difficulty of each side’s respective run ins. Ultimately, it’s good news for the likes of us and Notts County, but Boreham Wood in particular have a tough time ahead on paper. It also reaffirms that Chesterfield could drop.

On the basis of this, we’d need 81 points to guarantee a play-off place (without worrying about GD), another 19 points from a possible 24. That’s a tough ask; complicated by Notts County’s easy run-in some winnable games for Bromley in their final 11 matches. I reckon in reality, 2 or 3 points less than that would do - so perhaps another 16-17 points will be required. That would mean winning a minimum of 5 of our remaining 8 games (except for a scenario of 4 wins and 4 draws).

I’m still confident we will make it as we seem to be hitting form again at the right time, but it’s not going to be a cakewalk, and certainly not where a place that would give us a home tie is concerned.

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