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Expected points

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GrimRob
March 1, 2024, 4:21pm

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Grimsby and FGR the biggest underachievers. Based on expected goals and points from their games.

https://docs.google.com/spread.....d8/edit?usp=drivesdk


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lew chaterleys lover
March 1, 2024, 4:48pm
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Quoted from GrimRob
Grimsby and FGR the biggest underachievers. Based on expected goals and points from their games.

https://docs.google.com/spread.....d8/edit?usp=drivesdk


It's only the league table that counts, often sadly in our case, and if we do go down I don't think anybody will be taking any comfort from how good we nearly were.
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GrimRob
March 1, 2024, 6:10pm

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Quoted from lew chaterleys lover


It's only the league table that counts, often sadly in our case, and if we do go down I don't think anybody will be taking any comfort from how good we nearly were.


I think the point though is that we are undervalued. Aimed at people wanting to bet on games.


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lew chaterleys lover
March 2, 2024, 8:49am
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Quoted from GrimRob


I think the point though is that we are undervalued. Aimed at people wanting to bet on games.


We aren't undervalued though are we? We are were we are for the simple reason we are not good enough, we have picked the wrong formations and in the important areas we haven't got enough players to turn xg into actual goals and good enough defenders / keepers to keep them out at the other!
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GrimRob
March 2, 2024, 10:09am

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Quoted from lew chaterleys lover


We aren't undervalued though are we? We are were we are for the simple reason we are not good enough, we have picked the wrong formations and in the important areas we haven't got enough players to turn xg into actual goals and good enough defenders / keepers to keep them out at the other!


That's true a degree but there's nothing about a result that is inevitable. We missed a late sitter against Morecambe and could easily have won. Accrington had a great chance early on against us, had they scored they could have won by a landslide. There's nothing inevitable about any result and if you played a game many times under identical conditions and the same players the outcomes would vary enormously. Many people try to work out the "true" value of a company before buying shares and hope the price will rise of something that came out too low. Yes the league table represents the unalterable past but you need more data to look ahead at what might happen.


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lew chaterleys lover
March 2, 2024, 11:16am
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Quoted from GrimRob


That's true a degree but there's nothing about a result that is inevitable. We missed a late sitter against Morecambe and could easily have won. Accrington had a great chance early on against us, had they scored they could have won by a landslide. There's nothing inevitable about any result and if you played a game many times under identical conditions and the same players the outcomes would vary enormously. Many people try to work out the "true" value of a company before buying shares and hope the price will rise of something that came out too low. Yes the league table represents the unalterable past but you need more data to look ahead at what might happen.


But you have just laid out the case why it's all nonsense. Anything can and does happen in future games, and any amount of data analysis won't change that. The only thing that is truthful is the league table, the rest is just a guess for betting or otherwise. In those games you mentioned there would have been many "could be" moments that would have changed the outcome of the game.
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Running like emson
March 2, 2024, 1:01pm

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So all bets are off then?
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