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FA Cup odds

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GrimRob
February 9, 2023, 12:05pm

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We're 1000/1 to win the cup

https://m.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/29569239

I've backed us already to reach the final at 1000/1 and topped up today at 500/1.


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thefish
February 9, 2023, 12:31pm

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Quoted from GrimRob
We're 1000/1 to win the cup

https://m.skybet.com/football/fa-cup/event/29569239

I've backed us already to reach the final at 1000/1 and topped up today at 500/1.


Are you drunk?
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GrimRob
February 9, 2023, 12:40pm

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Quoted from thefish


Are you drunk?


It's hard to grasp what 1000/1 actually means. A 1 in 1000 year event is exceptionally rare, almost beyond human experience, vanishingly small. If the FA Cup had been played every year since the Battle of Hastings in 1066 it would only be expected to happen once. Feels more likely than that to me. I think it's probably a few hundred to one, with no replays, and therefore a value bet.

Anyway I have won at longer odds. A fiver on Leicester at 2000/1 in 2016.


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Swansea_Mariner
February 9, 2023, 12:45pm
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I mean the odds are clearly not that long given Bradford managed to reach a cup final whilst in the 4th tier back in just 2013.

Still pretty unlikely though.
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supertown
February 9, 2023, 2:25pm
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Quoted from thefish


Are you drunk?


That’s not alcohol, must be drugs 😂
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GrimPol
February 9, 2023, 3:41pm
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Quoted from GrimRob


It's hard to grasp what 1000/1 actually means. A 1 in 1000 year event is exceptionally rare, almost beyond human experience, vanishingly small. If the FA Cup had been played every year since the Battle of Hastings in 1066 it would only be expected to happen once. Feels more likely than that to me. I think it's probably a few hundred to one, with no replays, and therefore a value bet.

Anyway I have won at longer odds. A fiver on Leicester at 2000/1 in 2016.


In 1066, who did you lay a bet on William or Harold?
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GrimRob
February 9, 2023, 3:58pm

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William would definitely have been the underdog as his squad was light but Harold had just returned from a hard outing at Stamford Bridge. There were no substitutes then. William eventually lifted the trophy as his troops were probably fresher.


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thefish
February 9, 2023, 5:01pm

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Quoted from GrimRob
William would definitely have been the underdog as his squad was light but Harold had just returned from a hard outing at Stamford Bridge. There were no substitutes then. William eventually lifted the trophy as his troops were probably fresher.


Bloody French knocking us out again 😞
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Grimsby2012
February 9, 2023, 5:04pm

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Let's be real here.

We have a really good chance of making the finals.

Just need to overcome Southampton and then Man united, City, West ham, Tottenham, Brighton, Fulham, Bristol City, Fleetwood, Blackburn, Stoke or Leeds.

Fairly winnable games.

Although Fleetwood in the final looks particularly difficult.


I blocked seeing red ticks years ago so go ahead   If I don't reply to you then i didn't read your replies  
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pizzzza
February 9, 2023, 6:54pm

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Rather than backing Town outright at 1000/1 a better way to do would be do a rolling accumulator on Town to progress through each round. Town are 6/1 with Bet365 to progress past Southampton. Let's say they'll be 6/1 for each of the remaining 4 rounds (and that's a conservative assumption given that there'll be sterner tests ahead if we do progress). A £1 rolling accumulator on 4x 6/1 shots will see you end up with £2401.
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GrimRob
February 9, 2023, 7:33pm

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Quoted from pizzzza
A £1 rolling accumulator on 4x 6/1 shots will see you end up with £2401.


It's actually £2800. 1x7^4. That's why decimal odds are much easier.


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137
February 10, 2023, 5:48am
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Quoted from GrimRob

It's actually £2800. 1x7^4. That's why decimal odds are much easier.


Erm ... 7^4 = 2401
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BrMarin
February 10, 2023, 5:41pm
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1000/1 looks too big to me... I think maybe 200-300/1 at most.
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