National League Promotion & Relegation Calcula

Just had a go on the NL predictor…

1     Stockport
—————————
2     Wrexham
3     FC Halifax
4     Grimsby
5     Notts County
6     Solihull Moors
7     Bromley
—————————
8     Chesterfield
9     Boreham Wood

Which would result in the following play-offs…

Quarter-Finals

Grimsby v Bromley
Notts Co v Solihull Moors

Semi-Finals

Wrexham v Notts Co or Solihull Moors
FC Halifax v Grimsby or Bromley

So I have us facing the 2 biggest thorns in our side this season if we want to reach the Promotion Final.

Sadly for Dover I have them missing out on reaching 0 points.

A bit optimistic!
I did it but us and Solihull were the other way round. Personally don't think we will catch them.

Solihull’s next 4 games include playing the top 3 all away from home. And they finish with Bromley & Dagenham at home and away at Boreham Wood on the final day of the season.

That’s a tough run in.

And 5 of their next 6 are away too. They are unbeaten in their last 13 league games, but their quality is about to be tested.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Just had a go on the NL predictor…

1     Stockport
—————————
2     Wrexham
3     FC Halifax
4     Grimsby
5     Notts County
6     Solihull Moors
7     Bromley
—————————
8     Chesterfield
9     Boreham Wood

Which would result in the following play-offs…

Quarter-Finals

Grimsby v Bromley
Notts Co v Solihull Moors

Semi-Finals

Wrexham v Notts Co or Solihull Moors
FC Halifax v Grimsby or Bromley

So I have us facing the 2 biggest thorns in our side this season if we want to reach the Promotion Final.

Sadly for Dover I have them missing out on reaching 0 points.

I’d be amazed if Chesterfield finished 8th, still think our highest finish will be 7th.and we’ll be back at Chesterfield.

Not a chance are we finishing ahead of notts with their remaining games

Quoted from Hagrid

Not a chance are we finishing ahead of notts with their remaining games

Maybe, but Notts’ season has been blighted by an inability to string results together and a general lack of consistency.

We’re only 2 points behind them with similar GD (2 worse). Not too far fetched to believe we can finish above them. Realistically every match we have left is winnable.

Quoted from HertsGTFC

I’d be amazed if Chesterfield finished 8th, still think our highest finish will be 7th.and we’ll be back at Chesterfield.

Chesterfield’s have played 10 matches since Tshimanga was injured and have only picked up 12 points (3 wins and 3 draws).

Carry that on and they will end up on around 75 or 76 points. Which I think might well be borderline.

Looks a reasonable assessment. I haven't given up on third, I think we are good enough. I think the astute singings of Jones and Holohan have given us balance we have lacked all season. With forwards such as the underated IMO Ryan Taylor and John Mcatee, creativity from Holohan and Maguire Drew, steel from an in form Harry Clifton and the defensive solidness of any from Pearson, Smith and Waterfall, we have a real chance of getting back to league two and we'll push on this time.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Chesterfield’s have played 10 matches since Tshimanga was injured and have only picked up 12 points (3 wins and 3 draws).

Carry that on and they will end up on around 75 or 76 points. Which I think might well be borderline.

Tshimanga’s absence is an obvious issue for them, and it’s almost certain that they’d have picked up more points had he been fit. But I don’t think it’s quite as simple as that.

What happened in late January when they effectively sacked James Rowe and went on to replace him with Paul Cook was very unusual. How often do you see a manager sacked when his side is top of the league and in good form? Evidently he got the bullet for non-footballing reasons, but it’s something that hardly ever happens.

Likewise, it’s an odd one for the incoming Paul Cook. Normally when you take on a new job, it’s because the team is failing to meet expectations and and out of form. In that scenario it’s ok to come in, change things up and implement your own philosophy.

But he’s done that when there was already a winning formula in place. He’s changed formation and system to what has worked for him in the past, not what necessarily suits the personnel at his disposal. It’s arrogant and naive, and I think Chesterfield should be concerned about where things are headed for them.

We’re 5 points off them with a game in hand, hitting form and with key players coming back to fitness. Chesterfield are averaging only a point a game on recent form, and their talisman won’t be back for them this season. They still have Halifax, Stockport and Bromley to play, too.

I’m going to put it out there and say that Town will finish ahead of them, which seemed totally out of the question only a few weeks ago.

Season  Football Calculator Your Final League Table

Forecast National League Table
Here's your final league table which has been generated from all the results which you have supplied. Results which you did not supply have been forecast by the calculator based partly upon recent form, although note that there is also a random factor built in to simulate the unpredictable nature of our sport.
I've just had a go.......come up with this.
Pos     Team               P      GD    Pts
1     Stockport      44     +45          93
2     Wrexham             44     +29          92
3     FC Halifax     44     +25         88
4     Notts County     44     +22         86
5     Grimsby             44     +20         84
6     Solihull Moors     44     +26         82
7     Chesterfield     44     +23         77
8     Bromley             44     +10         77
9     Boreham Wood44     +15         73
10     Dagenham     44     +17         72
I can never get my ducks in a row.

1     Stockport     44     +52     99
2     Wrexham     44     +33     93
3     FC Halifax     44     +31     86
4     Notts County     44     +25     83
5     Solihull Moors     44     +30     82
6     Chesterfield     44     +24     82
7     Grimsby     44     +25     78

Quoted from Grimal

Season  Football Calculator Your Final League Table

Forecast National League Table
Here's your final league table which has been generated from all the results which you have supplied. Results which you did not supply have been forecast by the calculator based partly upon recent form, although note that there is also a random factor built in to simulate the unpredictable nature of our sport.
I've just had a go.......come up with this.
Pos     Team               P      GD    Pts
1     Stockport      44     +45          93
2     Wrexham             44     +29          92
3     FC Halifax     44     +25         88
4     Notts County     44     +22         86
5     Grimsby             44     +20         84
6     Solihull Moors     44     +26         82
7     Chesterfield     44     +23         77
8     Bromley             44     +10         77
9     Boreham Wood44     +15         73
10     Dagenham     44     +17         72
I can never get my ducks in a row.

I think that means you have us down to win 7 and draw 1 of our last 8 games, and at the same time have the same goal difference as we do now 😳

Ahh I love the fanciful extrapolation of the optimistic football fan. Wish I could but i vividly remember the second quarter of the season where we decided to give everyone else a chance. We look solid again but we're just as likely to bomb as Borehamwood and Chesterfield are to pick up again, that's football. There's nearly always a late charge too so don't rule out those shitehouses Bromley. Still think we'll need as many as 76 points for 7th. Beat Weymouth and Kings Lynn, as we should, and I think we can start legitimately thinking we're probably going to

1Stockport 44 +55 97
2 Wrexham 44 +40 94
3 FC Halifax 44 +31 88
4 Notts County 44 +30 84
5 Solihull Moors 44 +28 83
6 Chesterfield 44 +27 81
7 Grimsby 44 +29 77
8 Boreham Wood 44 +21 76
9 Bromley 44 +13 73
10 Dagenham 44 +19 68

Away to Notts County then away to Wrexham with a play-off final against Halifax. Piece of urine mate

Stockport and Wrexham will be one and two in my opinion. Stockport champions. I see us finishing sixth, but think we can beat any of the other teams and will if we keep to that standard we showed at Chesterfield.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Chesterfield’s have played 10 matches since Tshimanga was injured and have only picked up 12 points (3 wins and 3 draws).

Carry that on and they will end up on around 75 or 76 points. Which I think might well be borderline.

I also think their manager being sacked and the fall out from that might have badly affected their form

Is it also not out of the question that Wrexham could pip Stockport? They have a game in hand, we play Stockport, they might just wobble.

Certainly an odd one with Chesterfield and like Poojah alluded to, you would have thought Cook would have taken a bit of a back seat and just been there to motivate and make in game changes but delay implementing his philosophy until the summer. I was at Chesterfield a few years ago when they was on that crazy bad run under Martin Allen and the atmosphere was incredibly toxic.

If Chesterfield fail to make the play-offs or get a pasting in them Cook will be gone I think.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Just had a go on the NL predictor…

1     Stockport
—————————
2     Wrexham
3     FC Halifax
4     Grimsby
5     Notts County
6     Solihull Moors
7     Bromley
—————————
8     Chesterfield
9     Boreham Wood

Which would result in the following play-offs…

Quarter-Finals

Grimsby v Bromley
Notts Co v Solihull Moors

Semi-Finals

Wrexham v Notts Co or Solihull Moors
FC Halifax v Grimsby or Bromley

So I have us facing the 2 biggest thorns in our side this season if we want to reach the Promotion Final.

Sadly for Dover I have them missing out on reaching 0 points.

Just redone this and still have Town finishing 4th. But now have Solihull 5th & Notts 6th. Also have Chesterfield clinging on to the final relegation spot with Bromley in 8th.

That would give us…

QF: Grimsby v Chesterfield & Solihull v Notts
SF: Wrexham v Solihull/Notts & Halifax v Grimsby/Chesterfield

I've been quite conservative with our results and ended up with:

1     Stockport
2     Wrexham
3     FC Halifax     
4     Solihull Moors
5     Notts County
6     Grimsby
7     Chesterfield

Away at County
Away at Wrexham

Quoted from lukeo

1     Stockport     44     +52     99
2     Wrexham     44     +33     93
3     FC Halifax     44     +31     86
4     Notts County     44     +25     83
5     Solihull Moors     44     +30     82
6     Chesterfield     44     +24     82
7     Grimsby     44     +25     78
County v Grimsby
Solihull v Chesterfield

Pos     Team     P     GD     Pts
1     Stockport     44     +55     99
2     Wrexham     44     +47     92
3     FC Halifax     44     +31     87
4     Notts County     44     +21     83
5     Solihull Moors     44     +30     82
6     Grimsby     44     +22     80
7     Chesterfield     44     +25     79

Still getting roughly the same. Top 7 are the same.
County v Chesterfield
Solihull v Grimsby

I haven’t run the calculator but it seems to me that Boreham and Bromley are in poor form and unlikely to trouble the top seven. The only real threat comes from Dagenham. If Torquay beat us on Saturday they might just have an outside chance, otherwise they are out of it.
  
I think the top three are nailed on, so it’s four from the next five in the table for the remaining play off spots.

Saturday is key. If we win that, given our run in, i think we are certs for a play place but would imagine it’s 6th at best. So two very tough away games to reach the final,

Anyone done another calculation after yesterday?

Although not mathematically certain - Imho I think that’s the play off spots sorted, just in which position they end now. Notts have a run in which they ‘should’ pick up points..as do we.. Halifax should grab enough along with Wrexham to get 2nd and 3rd. Solihull 4th, Notts 5th, us 6th , chesterfield 7th? I’d take that tbh.

Think Solihull are the team to avoid, particularly away. Can see them upsetting Wrexham in all honesty.

I think we might win all 4. That could put us up at 4th or 5th given some of the other fixtures.

Just did it..I have Wrexham on 89, Solihull and Halifax on 87, Notts on 85, us on 82 and Chesterfield 79.

Might have to beat Notts County, Chesterfield and Stockport all away from BP

Quoted from marinerjase

Just did it..I have Wrexham on 89, Solihull and Halifax on 87, Notts on 85, us on 82 and Chesterfield 79.

Traitor!!!!! Who did you have us drawing with?

It’s interesting you have Notts picking up the maximum points.

Personally I think they’ll drop points. Possibly quite a few.

Dover have a few goals in them (scored 11 in last 6) and Notts have only the 11th best defence in National League and have conceded 8 in their last 5. Could easily see Dover getting at least a point on Tuesday.

Aldershot are 1 win from securing safety so Saturday is a massive opportunity for them. And Notts have lost a couple of their longer away trips (Eastleigh & Torquay).

And then there’s the most curious fixture in the National League. Maidenhead United away. They have only won 12 of their 40 matches this season. But… They have beaten Wrexham, Halifax, Chesterfield, Bromley, Boreham Wood & Southend at home whilst managing to lose to Wealdstone, Barnet & Kings Lynn at York Road. So a really tough final day for Notts.

Notts have played 7 of the current bottom 10 away so far and have only managed 1 win & 2 draws. That’s 5 points from 7. To think they are certs to pick up 3 wins from the other 3 matches is probably fanciable to say the least.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Traitor!!!!! Who did you have us drawing with?

It’s interesting you have Notts picking up the maximum points.

Personally I think they’ll drop points. Possibly quite a few.

Dover have a few goals in them (scored 11 in last 6) and Notts have only the 11th best defence in National League and have conceded 8 in their last 5. Could easily see Dover getting at least a point on Tuesday.

Aldershot are 1 win from securing safety so Saturday is a massive opportunity for them. And Notts have lost a couple of their longer away trips (Eastleigh & Torquay).

And then there’s the most curious fixture in the National League. Maidenhead United away. They have only won 12 of their 40 matches this season. But… They have beaten Wrexham, Halifax, Chesterfield, Bromley, Boreham Wood & Southend at home whilst managing to lose to Wealdstone, Barnet & Kings Lynn at York Road. So a really tough final day for Notts.

Notts have played 7 of the current bottom 10 away so far and have only managed 1 win & 2 draws. That’s 5 points from 7. To think they are certs to pick up 3 wins from the other 3 matches is probably fanciable to say the least.

Statto! Statto! Statto!

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Just redone this and still have Town finishing 4th. But now have Solihull 5th & Notts 6th. Also have Chesterfield clinging on to the final relegation spot with Bromley in 8th.

That would give us…

QF: Grimsby v Chesterfield & Solihull v Notts
SF: Wrexham v Solihull/Notts & Halifax v Grimsby/Chesterfield

Just redone again after our win against Torquay and still have the exact same final table…

1 Stockport
——————-
2 Wrexham
3 Halifax
4 Grimsby
5 Solihull
6 Notts Co
7 Chesterfield
——————-
8 Bromley

Quarter-Finals

Solihull v Notts Co (Wed 25 May)
Grimsby v Chesterfield (Thu 26 May)

Semi-Finals

Wrexham v Solihull or Notts Co (Sat 28 May)
Halifax v Grimsby or Chesterfield (Sun 29 May)

Quoted from BraStrap

Might have to beat Notts County, Chesterfield and Stockport all away from BP

I get the same as you. Town 6th.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Traitor!!!!! Who did you have us drawing with?

It’s interesting you have Notts picking up the maximum points.

Personally I think they’ll drop points. Possibly quite a few.

Dover have a few goals in them (scored 11 in last 6) and Notts have only the 11th best defence in National League and have conceded 8 in their last 5. Could easily see Dover getting at least a point on Tuesday.

Aldershot are 1 win from securing safety so Saturday is a massive opportunity for them. And Notts have lost a couple of their longer away trips (Eastleigh & Torquay).

And then there’s the most curious fixture in the National League. Maidenhead United away. They have only won 12 of their 40 matches this season. But… They have beaten Wrexham, Halifax, Chesterfield, Bromley, Boreham Wood & Southend at home whilst managing to lose to Wealdstone, Barnet & Kings Lynn at York Road. So a really tough final day for Notts.

Notts have played 7 of the current bottom 10 away so far and have only managed 1 win & 2 draws. That’s 5 points from 7. To think they are certs to pick up 3 wins from the other 3 matches is probably fanciable to say the least.

Eastleigh..in a ‘play fringe players as position secured’ type scenario.

Wrexham to hang onto second from Solihull on GD. Town v Notts and Halifax v Chesterfield in the QF.

Whilst I'd love us to beat Wrexham in the final - there will be a huge media fuss round them and it will be great to spoil their party, I'd fancy our chances at the Racecourse better than at Solihull. Our performances at big venues with big crowds have been alot better than away at the tinpots...

I disagree. I’d fancy our chances at anywhere away other than the racecourse. If we get to the final it will be a great match up if it’s Wrexham, with two huge followings.

Quoted from marinerjase

Eastleigh..in a ‘play fringe players as position secured’ type scenario.

I don't think there's any chance of us not putting our strongest team out at Eastleigh unless we cannot mathematically finish above 6th .

If there is any remote possibility, however slim, of securing a home quarter-final or even snatching 3rd place and a bye and home semi-final then we'll put our best XI out. Also worth noting the quarter-finals are 10 & 11 days after the Eastleigh match. Resting players would mean players going into the play-offs without having played for 15 or 16 days.

Back in 2016 you had a two leg Semi-Final whether you finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th. Now if you finish higher you gain a more favourable route through to the Final.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

Just redone again after our win against Torquay and still have the exact same final table…

1 Stockport
——————-
2 Wrexham
3 Halifax
4 Grimsby
5 Solihull
6 Notts Co
7 Chesterfield
——————-
8 Bromley

Quarter-Finals

Solihull v Notts Co (Wed 25 May)
Grimsby v Chesterfield (Thu 26 May)

Semi-Finals

Wrexham v Solihull or Notts Co (Sat 28 May)
Halifax v Grimsby or Chesterfield (Sun 29 May)

Just redone again after drawing at Barnet and my table has changed…

1 Wrexham
——————-
2 Stockport
3 Halifax
4 Solihull
5 Grimsby
6 Notts Co
7 Chesterfield
——————-
8= Dagenham
8= Redbridge

Quarter-Finals

Grimsby v Notts Co (Wed 25 May)
Solihull v Chesterfield (Thu 26 May)

Semi-Finals

Stockport v Grimsby or Notts Co (Sat 28 May)
Halifax v Solihull or Chesterfield (Sun 29 May)

Final

Stockport/Grimsby/Notts Co v Halifax/Solihull/Chesterfield (Sun 5 Jun, London Stadium)

I too got Stockport doing a Keegan, but Notts County away for us, then Stockport away, then the final. Massive ask to win those two, it would dwarf our exploits in this division 6 years ago (2 legs against Braintree!!).

Quoted from GrimRob

I too got Stockport doing a Keegan, but Notts County away for us, then Stockport away, then the final. Massive ask to win those two, it would dwarf our exploits in this division 6 years ago (2 legs against Braintree!!).

That would be handy for me. Notts County is a lot closer to me than Blundell Park.

Quoted from GollyGTFC

That would be handy for me. Notts County is a lot closer to me than Blundell Park.

If a genie offered you a choice of home advantage or an easy journey for yourself what would you take?  

We will not finish above notts county

I’ve got us 6th..away to Notts

Quoted from GrimRob

If a genie offered you a choice of home advantage or an easy journey for yourself what would you take?  

The away game definitely. It's a 130 mile/3 hour round trip to Blundell Park. Meadow Lane is about 23 miles from me. You do the maths.

Seriously, have you lot not learnt anything? You've all been bigging up Notts County and saying they'll win all their remaining games since this thread started 4 weeks ago. And in that time they were thrashed at Torquay & imploded at Aldershot (like we did). And other than against 10 men Dover they have failed to keep a clean sheet in that time too. Altrincham will be tough for them- they've won 8 and drawn 2 of their last 13.

Even so, I guarantee they will lose at Maidenhead on the last day of the season. If we get 7 points from our last 3 matches we finish 5th. I promise. And it might not even take that.

Got us 5th with a home tie against county

Quoted from crusty ole pie

Got us 5th with a home tie against county

Good man!