Play-offs or not ?

Can't see us finishing top now unfortunately so.....

Simple question, are we going to reach the play-offs or not in your opinion, what's your gut feeling.

Obviously we need things to go our way, just look at Chesterfield, looks like their main striker is out for the rest of the season.

Even though our close rivals have game/s in hand over us I just have a feeling we are gaining momentum again and we'll just scrape into the play-offs.

You usually need 70 points or more to get to 7th spot, so we would need to win about 50% of our remaining 16 games, with two or three draws thrown in for good measure.

Doable, but difficult. We have played more games than most other sides, so maybe in a bit of a false position at the moment.

Never say never.

I haven't got my hopes up, but if we get to them, great. There have been too many years where our hopes have been dashed. The gap between us and the top few sides in this division is considerable, and we have nowhere near the strength in depth of some of the squads. Even if we do reach them, it would be a massive challenge to win mainly away games at those very clubs, but I think Hartlepool came from nowhere to do so last season.

Given the remaining fixtures, I think it’s back in our hands again. The goal for me would be to get top 5 and get at least one home game in the playoffs. Getting promoted from 6th or 7th is pretty much impossible.

I hope we do and I hope we get the opportunity to knock Bromley out.

I would love us to make the play offs, of course I would but I do think we will fall short. Unless we finish 2nd or 3rd which is virtually impossible it's 3 one legged cup finals so form goes out of the window. If we finish 6th or 7th, then it's 2 away games before Wembley and we will travel well; if our opponents let us.

This squad should easily make the play offs. Need to finish in the top five which is very doable.

Yes Please
V Bromley

Quoted from oochiad

Yes we will make the playoffs. We are just beginning to pick up momentum again. UTM!

I think were well in the mix for 6th or 7th, i think we'd need someone to have a really bad run for us to be in with a chance of 4th or 5th, but to be involved at all will be a great acheivement for this season.

Itll be really interesting to see how these type of playoffs play out,  you could get a 7th place on a really good run with no pressure whos just happy to have made the playoffs at all come up against a team who was challenging at the top and has bottled it towards the end and now the pressure is on to reclaim their season

Looking at the fixtures I do think we could end up around the 70 point mark, however I honestly think it's immaterial as I can't see us beating  3 of the top 7 to make it up.

I said we would finish 5th before the season started, and I still think we will. UTMM!!

Always expected and hoped we'd finish top 7. Let's be honest that should have always been our aim, ok we'd love to win the league but realistically with the amount of spending atleast 3 teams have made that quickly became almost impossible... For me top 7 is a must, even if we don't do well in the play offs it's something to build upon.

My opinion, I think we'll finish 6-7th, win our first one then fall short in the second game vs the money bags

Difficult but this team more than capable of top 7 but we can't afford another bad run consistency is the key from here in

Unfortunately, I think we’ll fall just short.

I think a lack of goals will ultimately become our Achilles heel. However, hopefully a summer of evolution rather than revolution should stand us in very good stead next season.

Really hope to be proved wrong.  

We're too inconsistent to predict at the moment.

Quoted from bradzmilne

Unfortunately, I think we’ll fall just short.

I think a lack of goals will ultimately become our Achilles heel. However, hopefully a summer of evolution rather than revolution should stand us in very good stead next season.

Really hope to be proved wrong.  

Genuinely think this team has goals in it all over the pitch. We just aren't getting enough bodies in the box and that comes from playing two holding midfielders. Play a flat 4-3-3, we have the players to accomodate that. It isn't a massive change and we would fly. We are too pedestrian at times with the 4-2-3-1.

If we’re going to have any chance Hurst needs to understand what his best mid field is and they’ll all need to be fit.

We will sneak in . I will be very disappointed if we don’t

Quoted from fishboyUTM

Genuinely think this team has goals in it all over the pitch. We just aren't getting enough bodies in the box and that comes from playing two holding midfielders. Play a flat 4-3-3, we have the players to accomodate that. It isn't a massive change and we would fly. We are too pedestrian at times with the 4-2-3-1.

I agree with this, its as though Hurst is keeping the brakes on and needs to put the foot on the gas instead.

I think the more interesting question is ‘who misses out’? Personally, I think the top 7 will consist of the current top 9, though Dagenham, Yeovil and maybe even Southend might feel that’s harsh.

I think Stockport, Chesterfield, Halifax, Bromley and Boreham Wood will all make it (with one of those five winning the league, probably Stockport as things stand). So that leaves two spots to play for between four; Solihull, Wrexham, Notts County and Town, and we’ll need to register a higher PPG than at least two of them between now and the end of the season.

That’s no mean feat in my opinion, when you consider that we still have to play Boreham Wood twice, Chesterfield (a) and Stockport (h). If you extrapolate the PPGs of our immediate rivals we’re going to need something in the region of 82 points, another 36 points or 2 points per game.

Our current PPG is 1.64, though it’s hard to make sense of that as it’s derived largely from one extremely good and one extremely poor runs of form.

What I’d take from that is that we will need to be consistently very good between now and the end of the season, and cut out those frustrating, undeserved 1-0 defeats.

On balance, I think the odds are against us. It’s absolutely doable, but we have to unlock a level of ruthlessness and consistency I’ve not seen from this team since the early part of the season.

What I found disapointing was Hurst's after match interview a while back. We lost the game 1-0 and he suggested we didn't attack at 0-1 early on as he wanted to 'stay in the game'. I paraphrase slightly.

But we've lost ten games in the league, most of them by the odd goal. If we're 1-0 down with 60 minutes to play, I see that 60 minutes as an opportunity to equalise and maybe get ahead in the game. He sees is as 60 minutes to keep it tight and snatch something. It's an outlook he won't easily change.

The only team I have seen that were comfortably better than us is Stockport - and that was their cup game v Bolton on the telly.

We should already be in the playoff places -  we deserved points from the Chesterfield and Notts home games and Halifax away and no doubt others but results are what they are.

However, our results have obviously picked up, we have improved the team with Rhaiky, Amos and JMD and I would expect and hope we will finish in the top 7.

If we get there, with our support and a nice settled team who knows what might happen?

I do think it is important we reach the playoffs regardless of the ultimate outcome, as I think that would be a springboard for even bigger season ticket sales and player recruitment as it would confirm we are going in the right direction especially if it is confirmed we haven't got Fenty anymore.

Quoted from Poojah

I think the more interesting question is ‘who misses out’? Personally, I think the top 7 will consist of the current top 9, though Dagenham, Yeovil and maybe even Southend might feel that’s harsh.

I think Stockport, Chesterfield, Halifax, Bromley and Boreham Wood will all make it (with one of those five winning the league, probably Stockport as things stand). So that leaves two spots to play for between four; Solihull, Wrexham, Notts County and Town, and we’ll need to register a higher PPG than at least two of them between now and the end of the season.

That’s no mean feat in my opinion, when you consider that we still have to play Boreham Wood twice, Chesterfield (a) and Stockport (h). If you extrapolate the PPGs of our immediate rivals we’re going to need something in the region of 82 points, another 36 points or 2 points per game.

Our current PPG is 1.64, though it’s hard to make sense of that as it’s derived largely from one extremely good and one extremely poor runs of form.

What I’d take from that is that we will need to be consistently very good between now and the end of the season, and cut out those frustrating, undeserved 1-0 defeats.

On balance, I think the odds are against us. It’s absolutely doable, but we have to unlock a level of ruthlessness and consistency I’ve not seen from this team since the early part of the season.

Think you are being a tad pessimistic there. Usually low 70's gets you to 7th spot.

We have won 50% of our games so far this season and if that were to carry on, we would get 72 points. A few draws would take us to mid 70's points wise.

I get what you are saying though and this may be a season with a higher points total than usual, given there are much better sides now in this league than has been the case on previous years.

I think PH has done some good transfer business and we seem to have a decent balanced side now, particularly considering we have Maguire Drew and Wright injured.  A decent run needed now but might just do it.  

At the start of the season I’d have taken being in contention for the play offs and taking a decent squad into next season.  Anything more is a bonus.

I think we were unlucky with injuries and suspensions which contributed to that bad run but something is hopefully building now.

The games we lost to Chesterfield, Wrexham and Bromley could have easily gone either way. I think we're a better team now with Raikhy and Amos who are only going to get better. If we can get Fox and Maguire Drew back and avoid injurys i think we're as good as anyone bar Stockport we just need to get that winning mentality back

Quoted from AdamHaddock

We're too inconsistent to predict at the moment.

Good point.

82 points, honestly I don't think we'll land anywhere near that, but equally I don't think it will require that many points either low to mid 70s I think would be enough for 7th.

Quoted from ginnywings

Think you are being a tad pessimistic there. Usually low 70's gets you to 7th spot.

We have won 50% of our games so far this season and if that were to carry on, we would get 72 points. A few draws would take us to mid 70's points wise.

I get what you are saying though and this may be a season with a higher points total than usual, given there are much better sides now in this league than has been the case on previous years.

Yeah, last season 69 was sufficient and Chesterfield actually finished 6th with that tally. But this season low 70s would mean at least two of those aforementioned rivaks seeing their PPG drop by around 25% over the remaining games.

I don’t see much evidence of that happening, in particular where Wrexham are concerned given the money they spunked in January.

Not sure how many of top 10 have to play each other again, and there are teams still in FA Trophy which means extra game midweek in league. Boreham Wood look in a great position on paper - but playing the amount of games they have to - it’ll be hard and they’ll drop points along the way. Bromley are the ‘spoilers’ for me, but I think we ‘could’ catch Halifax for example. All depends on Wrexham and Notts County..

Quoted from Poojah

Yeah, last season 69 was sufficient and Chesterfield actually finished 6th with that tally. But this season low 70s would mean at least two of those aforementioned rivaks seeing their PPG drop by around 25% over the remaining games.

I don’t see much evidence of that happening, in particular where Wrexham are concerned given the money they spunked in January.

Just checked back a few seasons as far as 2014/15 and the highest tally I could find for a 7th place finish was 76 points and that wasn't needed as 8th was only 68 points in that season.

If all the teams maintain their current PPG as you suggest, then it is going to be a season with a particularly high points tally for the play off spots. Mind you, that would be typical GTFC to get to 70 odd points and still be nowhere near in an outlier season.

Still think our run-in looks decent. The spell between 19th March and 15th April will make or break the season. In that month we’ve got the teams (currently) in 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th and 10th.

Our next few matches look winnable though I’d take a point at Southend as it stands, then from Easter Monday we have (currently) 22nd, 11th at home, 19th, 20th and 14th at home.

I just hope we’ve something to play for on the last Saturday of the season, not much worse than falling short and playing out dead rubbers.

I said “no” but I haven’t abandoned hope. Tall order though given our thin squad.

It would be sweet to end Bromley’s season. Classless oafs led by a big classless oaf who no doubt learned gamesmanship and bad grace from that whinging Brummie he played under st Northampton.

While we're talking about stats, I've only just noticed the difference between our home and away records this season.

Home Away

P 15 P 13

W 10 W 4

32 Pts 14 Pts

Our home record is currently the best in the division in terms of absolute points, although we've played 1 or 2 more home games than some teams.  But our away performances have killed us.  Without those mysterious no-shows at Wealdstone, Aldershot and Maidenhead, we'd be comfortably in the play-offs.

Don't really know what that says about the team, although it's odd for a Hurst side to not be able to grind out those 1-0 away wins his previous Town sides were famous for.

Ran the calculator we came 9th, 9 points off

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=5

Liverpool are in a similar state of affairs to us 9 points behind the league leaders. all beit in 2nd spot. I don't think for a minute with the games to play they have given up hope of being league champions with 14 games to play.

With 16 games left, a corner turned, play off's are a realism and so is top spot. Lots can happen and top spot has changed hands several times this season already. 16 games left and 48 points to play for, a lot can happen in our favour.

Keep the faith for promotion this season, it's within our grasp.

Hope we're still in with a shout for the last few games. The last few weeks of the season is always the most exciting time when you are interested in other teams results and how they impact on your own prospects.  Ending with a few fairly meaningless games is always a bit flat.

Interestingly, if we avoid defeat on Friday we’ll enter the POs.

Does it mean that much? No.

However, I would much rather be in there than not as we approach the run in. Regardless of games in hand etc.

Really not sure. Reckon we'll either scrape into them or finish 8th/9th.

If we do scrape into them, it'll be a hell of an ask to get promoted. But regardless, it would give us a lot better end to the season than dud games which don't mean much

Quoted from MarinerWY

Really not sure. Reckon we'll either scrape into them or finish 8th/9th.

I'm here for all your stating of the obvious, btw.

Can someone explain the play off to me ?? How it sets up 7th versus ? etc

Quoted from dapperz fun pub

Can someone explain the play off to me ?? How it sets up 7th versus ? etc

https://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/the-national-league/new-playoff-plans-rolled-national-league/

Quoted from promotion plaice

https://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/the-national-league/new-playoff-plans-rolled-national-league/

We really need to finish no lower than 5th then or it looks extremely difficult. We are very capable of finishing in the top five but we can't afford any more ridiculous runs.

Quoted from fishboyUTM

We really need to finish no lower than 5th then or it looks extremely difficult. We are very capable of finishing in the top five but we can't afford any more ridiculous runs.

Not sure why you think we're capable of finishing top 5 when we're 8th and have lost to every team above us, except the one we haven't played yet who have the best points per game record in the league.

We might scrape into the playoffs, hopefully we do, because that would give a bit more optimism leading into next season. A few dead rubbers would see the season peter out and I'd expect reduce season tickets for next year.

Quoted from pen penfras

Not sure why you think we're capable of finishing top 5 when we're 8th and have lost to every team above us, except the one we haven't played yet who have the best points per game record in the league.

We might scrape into the playoffs, hopefully we do, because that would give a bit more optimism leading into next season. A few dead rubbers would see the season peter out and I'd expect reduce season tickets for next year.

I've seen more than enough in this team to suggest we can make the top five. At times, we are unplayable against these opponents.

I don't know what happened when we had that shocking run, but if you take that run out of it then we are challenging for the title. We are good enough, hopefully whatever was wrong has been sorted and we can push on.

Quoted from fishboyUTM

I've seen more than enough in this team to suggest we can make the top five. At times, we are unplayable against these opponents.

I don't know what happened when we had that shocking run, but if you take that run out of it then we are challenging for the title. We are good enough, hopefully whatever was wrong has been sorted and we can push on.

Cant really exclude a 14 game run in which we only won 3  

Quoted from pen penfras

Not sure why you think we're capable of finishing top 5 when we're 8th and have lost to every team above us, except the one we haven't played yet who have the best points per game record in the league.

We might scrape into the playoffs, hopefully we do, because that would give a bit more optimism leading into next season. A few dead rubbers would see the season peter out and I'd expect reduce season tickets for next year.

County were above us when we beat them.

Quoted from ginnywings

County were above us when we beat them.

1 - They're not above us, so that's not relevant to what I said.
2 - They've beaten us this season anyway,

Quoted from Hagrid

Cant really exclude a 14 game run in which we only won 3  

Suppose not   but I believe there was a reason or reasons for it that may not have been strictly to do with football. Is what it is, it's been resolved now hopefully.

Quoted from pen penfras

1 - They're not above us, so that's not relevant to what I said.
2 - They've beaten us this season anyway,

Your point was we haven’t beaten anyone above us, they were above us when we beat them so clearly making your point wrong. We have now another win and a draw since beating them so are now above them, do you understand???? You are a miserable so and so who likes to bend the truth to suit your narrative.

Quoted from pen penfras

1 - They're not above us, so that's not relevant to what I said.
2 - They've beaten us this season anyway,

Your point was we haven’t beaten anyone above us, they were above us when we beat them so clearly making your point wrong. We have now another win and a draw since beating them so are now above them, do you understand???? You are a miserable so and so who likes to bend the truth to suit your narrative.

Quoted from oochiad

Your point was we haven’t beaten anyone above us, they were above us when we beat them so clearly making your point wrong. We have now another win and a draw since beating them so are now above them, do you understand???? You are a miserable so and so who likes to bend the truth to suit your narrative.

No, my point was that we've lost to everybody that's above us. Not lost every game, just that they've all beat us. I mean right now, not when we played them. We've also beaten Wrexham, but we lost to them too.

I think we will do it, yes.

We have some pretty good players, several of whom have now been in the Conference team of the week at different stages, we seem to have improved our form in the last few weeks and there are plenty of winnable games to come.