The Relegation Run In

LEAGUE TABLE

Pos                      Pl   GD   Pts
20   Colchester United   44   -18   47
21   Scunthorpe United   43   -18   47
22   Barrow              43    -7   46
--------------------------------------
23   Southend United     44   -30   41
24   Grimsby Town        43   -29   40

REMAINING FIXTURES

Colchester United     (DDLWWL)

Sat 1st May      SALFORD CITY (H)             8th     WWLDWW
Sat 8th May      Tranmere Rovers (A)          5th     DDLDWW

2 extremely tough looking games against clubs chasing play-off places.

Scunthorpe United     (DLDLLL)

Tue 27th Apr     Newport County (A)           7th     WDDLWD
Sat 1st May      Bradford City (A)           14th     DWLLLL
Sat 8th May      STEVENAGE (H)               15th     WDLLLW

In poor form but final 2 matches against lower mid-table sides in poor form recently.

Barrow                (DDWLLL)
Tue 27th Apr     Forest Green Rovers (A)      6th     LLLWDD
Sat 1st May      SOUTHEND UNITED (H)         23rd     LDDDLW
Sat 8th May      Exeter City (A)              9th     DWLDDD

2 tough away matches sandwiching a potentially crucial game against Southend.

Southend United       (LDDDLW)
Sat 1st May      Barrow (A)                  22nd     DDWLLL
Sat 8th May      NEWPORT COUNTY (H)           7th     WDDLWD

Can realistically only catch Barrow & will be all but down if they get a point on Tuesday.

Grimsby Town          (DDLWLW)
Tue 27th Apr     Exeter City (A)              9th     DWLDDD
Sat 1st May      PORT VALE (H)               12th     WWWDWW
Sat 8th May      Cambridge United (A)         2nd     WDLWWL

Looks daunting but we have a good record at Exeter, Port Vale will probably be out of play-off race by next Saturday & Cambridge should be safely promoted before the final day. Obviously we need to win all 3 of our remaining games and hope that Colchester or Scunthorpe get no more than 1 point or Barrow get no more than 2 points from their remaining games.

Personally I think Colchester look the most promising for failing to reach 49 points. Scunthorpe have the kindest run in & are likely to get over the line. Barrow should scrape enough points to get out of our reach. Southend are irrelevant because we have to win our 3 remaining games & that will see us finish above them whatever they do in their final 2 matches.

Look its not even worth thinking like that
1 game at a time.

2 wins and a draw should be enough if Barrow lose their remaining games.

Unfortunately, we have to rely upon the results of others.

Hopefully - the anger at having to travel down to Exeter again will fire the players and management team up.

UTM

All we can do at this point is focus on throwing everything we can to win our remaining games as relying on other results is too big a gamble. The more we win the more we pile the pressure on Barrow and Scunny who have both been on a poor run of form. We have nothing to lose at this point and remaining games against Exeter and Cambridge will be tough but the pressure is more on them at the top end of the table than us in the relegation zone where expectations are high to reach playoffs and automatic promotion spots. We know ourselves how a team can have a bad run late in the season and screw up automatic promotion because of pressure of expectation.

Squeaky bum time for others if we could just manage a win tuesday

We’re down, we know that but at least we could try and stop it.

We’ve had chances, we could’ve buried games but our inability to score goals is what will send us down, that and an incompetent owner and a ducking carrot crunching idiot as manager.

The chance of us winning three games is slim, just look at midweek, dominate against Bolton, fall apart against Morecambe, that’s why we’re down here.

But, we are town fans and we love our club so we believe and a win on a Saturday is a delight...

The points lost at Carlisle and at home to Stevenage look, as they did at the time, crucial.

Sadly this it will be all over on Tuesday I suspect, quite happily be proved wrong though.

I think we will draw on Tuesday just to prolong the agony.

We never do anything the easy way.

For me the Exeter game us the hardest part of the whole jigsaw, frankly I'd be amazed, but if we can do Exter then we have a glimmer.

The permutations are now at least pretty clear with the games running down. Short of one of Colchester or Scunny taking an improbable battering, we have to win our last three games.

Achieving that would mean we surpass Southend as a minimum. So what of Col U, Scunny and Barrow if we were to take an unlikely 9 from 9?

Colchester play Salford (8’) at home and Tranmere (5) in their last two games, and would require a minimum of 2 points to stay up.

Scunny play Newport (7) and Bradford (14) away before playing Stevenage (15) at home on final day. Two draws will do for them, though their form is wretched and they have taken 1 point from their last 7 games and are rooted to the bottom of the form guide. Granted, I’d swap places with them right now, but not a position you’d want to be in for a League Two run-in.

Barrow meanwhile play Forest Green (6) away, a desperate Southend (23) at home and Exeter (9) away on the final day. They would need a solitary win or three draws to guarantee their survival.

So that’s the gist of it. We have to win our last three - improbable as that is. But I think, looking at what lies in front of our rivals, it’s more probable that we stay up IF we do that than go down. At least one of those three will falter.

The pressure isn’t on us. We have nothing to lose - we have to use that.

We’re not dead yet.

Quoted from grimsby pete

I think we will draw on Tuesday just to prolong the agony.

We never do anything the easy way.

You're right, Pete, we'll find  way to prolong the agony.

I've just done the calculator 😢 😢 😢
20     Scunthorpe     46     -21     50
21     Colchester     46     -20     47
22     Southend     46     -32     47
23     Barrow     46     -8     46
24     Grimsby     46     -27     45

Did it again with a couple of tweaks. Whatever happens it'll be a tight finish, whether that's Southend and Co or us aswell. That final relegation spot could be any one of 4.


20     Barrow     46     -8     49
21     Scunthorpe     46     -21     48
22     Colchester     46     -20     47
23     Grimsby     46     -27     45
24     Southend     46     -32     44

For me it just comes down to knowing that we can’t rely on anyone at all to do us any kind of favour. Putting faith in the likes of Newport or Walsall or Bradford just isn’t for me anymore.

I drove myself crazy in 2017 trying to juggle all the permutations concerning us, Barnet, Chesterfield and others when Jolley kept us up.

This time I think it’s best just to take one game at a time and see where it leads.

Defeat on Tuesday means it is effectively over whatever happens in all of the other fixtures.

All we can do is throw everything we can at Exeter on Tuesday and not repeat last tuesday night
Win the game and we live until Sat and have an interest in the
Barrow v Southend fixture
Biggest Game for a few years Tuesday night
Really only a win keeps us alive
Come on Town!!

Just can't see it myself. Firstly, we would be having to win 4 games on the trot, which seems an impossibility to me given our struggles this season. We would then have to rely on one of the other three imploding.

The second part may happen, but the first.....

Quoted from ginnywings

Just can't see it myself. Firstly, we would be having to win 4 games on the trot, which seems an impossibility to me given our struggles this season. We would then have to rely on one of the other three imploding.

The second part may happen, but the first.....

Key part there is one of the other three. A few weeks ago we were only effectively able to chase Colchester, now there are 3 hits, all of whom need to win a remaining fixture (one is likely not to). However that leaves us having to win 3 games. At least that part is in our hands but thought ask.

Quoted from Poojah

The pressure isn’t on us. We have nothing to lose - we have to use that.

We’re not dead yet.

This is it for me. And it's not four, it's three. We already won the first one, so it's gone, we start over. Despite what some are saying about one game at a time (true) that is for the team. I am suspicious of any town fan that really isn't beside themselves thinking of all the permutations......
Either way, the obese female crooner put her mic down on Saturday evening, at least temporarily

The huge escape is highly improbable, but not without precedent.  There are factors in our favour.

Fulham stayed up a few years ago by winning their last 3 games.  This run included a win at Old Trafford, when they had not won away all season.  All this from memory.

Our recent record is excellent.  We have avoided defeat in 11 of our last 12 games, when finishing with 11 men.  Bradford was a defeat with 10.

We beat Bolton ( fairly easily) so can beat top teams like Exeter and Cambridge.

We won our last away game, scoring 2 goals.

A week ago we won at home scoring 2 goals.

The longest journey starts with the first step.  So does the shortest journey.

I agree with Poojah, we must win all 3 games to have a chance.  There is no pressure on us.  The other teams thought that we were gone. They are looking at the fixtures.  They are not worried yet but would be if we won on Tuesday.  Team spirit and effort are good.  We just need the next level.

We concentrate solely on our performances and results.  If we do this right then we either survive or other wins relegate us.  We cannot control any of these outcomes.

Our next 3 opponents might not be as focused as they could be.  And playing the bottom team must look an easy 3 points.

Without Hanson we are forced to play differently, which may help us.  The con”y side-issue Is that players are getting thin on the ground.

I think the way we fell apart in the week after a great performance against Bolton said a lot.

We have glimmers but like all excrement teams we just can’t go again. This is my fear for Tuesday. Exeter are a decent side and will be going for it which may help us, equally, we are still the bottom team and they will look to exploit that in many ways. Our heads don’t drop like they did under Holloway but we still don’t score enough which is a problem.

We’ve dropped silly points, Carlisle, Stevenage, Salford (although we were stitched up) are three that come to mind. Three points from one of those and we’re in the driving seat but sadly it wasn’t to be and we are where we are...

I think the only thing that will save the other three is is and Southend being just a bit more shitter sadly.

Exeter is a must win for us, but I feel all the pressure will be on Exeter. They have only scored twice in their last 7 games, 5 games without a goal. The last time they scored was against Barrow and lost 2 - 1 to Barrow.

Since then they have played FGR, Southend, and Newport without scoring. The game is certainly winnable which gives me more optimism than usual. I didn't think that we played brilliant against Oldham but we won, so maybe lady luck is coming to our rescue.

I think Scunny will scrape some points but Colchester and Barrow could easily lose their last few games giving us the lifeline we need.

Didn’t we have an unlikely win at Exeter a few years ago when Matty announced his arrival with a great performance?

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Didn’t we have an unlikely win at Exeter a few years ago when Matty announced his arrival with a great performance?

Aye, won there the last 2 years.

3-1 last season when Ethan Robson got 2 (yep, that was only last season!) and the aforementioned 2-1 in December '18 (10 men for 40 minutes and Mitch Rose won it with a pen).

Mattie Pollock did his heroic testicular block on the line as well.

Burnley needed a win today away from home.  They won 4-0 at Wolves.  Wood got a hat trick.

  If  someone with a good old English name like Wood can score 3 goals then a Town player with another old English name like Green or Jackson can do the same.

Quoted from TownSNAFU5

Burnley needed a win today away from home.  They won 4-0 at Wolves.  Wood got a hat trick.

  If  someone with a good old English name like Wood can score 3 goals then a Town player with another old English name like Green or Jackson can do the same.

Wood? Wood! Now there’s a player in need of an S.

[quote=449]Did it again with a couple of tweaks. Whatever happens it'll be a tight finish, whether that's Southend and Co or us aswell. That final relegation spot could be any one of 4.


I did it trying not to be bias and honest as I could .

20     Barrow                      49
21.  Grimsby.                . 49
22. Colchester.               48
23  Scunthorpe.              47
24   Southend.                 41

i cannot see us getting 46 points
i hope i’m wrong

Quoted from Yoda

i cannot see us getting 46 points
i hope i’m wrong

You are.

I think if we don’t get exactly 8 points from our last 3 matches we should sack Hurst!

Quoted from GollyGTFC

I think if we don’t get exactly 8 points from our last 3 matches we should sack Hurst!

And I’ve no doubt that we will. Three wins and a 1 point deduction for overzealous celebrations after relegating winless Scunny into the abyss will do me just fine.