What is it with GTFC n Oct/Nov slumps

This seems  to be a proverbial problem with Town. Think Ska on another thread mentioned a couple of Hursts previous seasons slumps at this time. I'd add in Holloways meltdown season when we started our real slump n the Lawtence season when I seem to remember it all went pear shaped after the Liverpool win. Maybe others can confirm or deny this almost annual trend?

19/20 - no wins from 28th Sept to 1st Jan (D6 L9)
18/19 - not too bad from Oct (w6, d2,l5) but started with 2 wins in 12 inc 8 losses
17/18 - OK through autumn but 20 without a win from mid Dec
16/17 - 2 wins in 14 from 1st Oct
15/16 - good season, 1 loss from mid sept to Dec

Inconclusive, really. What I would say is those at the top do seem very reluctant to make a change compared to other clubs. Whether that’s because they’re not confident of appointing a decent replacement, or fear upheaval when we’re precariously placed in the league, is not for any of us to say.

Under Lawrence the slump had set in well before the Liverpool win, in fact it was sandwiched by a really long excrement run of form.

Going to Anfield we were 1 point from the last 5 games, the game before saw Rotherham come to BP and pick up their first win of the season, complete with Ronnie Moore shaving off his beard that he had promised to keep until they won, it was never all about him though...

After the win we then went a further 3 without picking up a single point before we beat Birmingham in front of the ITV Digital cameras (Micky Boulding unplayable that night).   Following that we then picked up a whopping 4 points from 10 games in the league with Arsenal easily seeing us off in the League Cup too.  A run which saw Lawrence axed after the Boxing Day defeat to Coventry.  Groves came in and we immediately dispatched Portsmouth with a resurgent Wayne Burnett pulling the strings.  We didn't win again until February but that's a different story...

But for Lawrence, it wasn't a great Oct/Nov - 5 points from a possible 30 - 16.67%

Since then:

Paul Groves

02/03 - 12 points from a possible 33 - 36.36%
03/04 - 11 points from a possible 24 - 45.83%

Manager Total 23 points from a possible 57 - 40.35%

Russell Slade

04/05 - 11 points from a possible 27 - 40.74%
05/06 - 11 points from a possible 24 - 45.83%

Manager Total 22 points from a possible 51 - 43.14%

Graham Rodger

06/07 - 0 from a possible 3 - 0%


Alan Buckley

06/07 - 10 from a possible 24 - 41.67%
07/08 - 10 points from a possible 27 - 37.04

Manager Total 20 points from a possible 51 - 39.22%

Stuart Watkiss (Caretaker)

08/09 - 0 from a possible 3 - 0%

Mike Newell

08/09 - 10 from a possible 27 - 37.04%

Neil Woods

09/10 - 4 from a possible 27 - 14.81%
10/11 12 points from a possible 24 (then didn't play a single league fixture in December) - 50%

Manager Total 20 points from a possible 51 - 31.37%

Rob Scott & Paul Hurst

11/12 - 14 points from a possible 30 - 46.67%
12/13 - 15 points from a possible 24 - 62.50%

Manager Total 29 points from a possible 54 - 53.70%

Paul Hurst

13/14 - 15 points from a possible 21 - 71.83%
14/15 - 22 points from a possible 33 - 66.66%
15/16 - 21 points from a possible 30 - 70.00%
16/17 - 4 points from a possible 12 - 33.33%

Manager Total 62 points from a possible 96 - 64.58%

Dave Moore/Stuart Watkiss (caretaker)

16/17 - 1 point from a possible 3 - 33.33%

Marcus Bignot

16/17 - 5 points points from a possible 12 - 41.67%

Russell Slade MKII

17/18 - 15 points from a possible 27 - 55.56%

Michael Jolley

18/19 - 17 points from a possible 30
19/20 - 1 point from a possible 12

Manager Total 18 points from a possible 42 - 42.86%

Anthony Limbrick (caretaker)

19/20 - 1 point from a possible 6 - 16.67%

Ian Holloway

20/21 - 15 points from a possible 30 (season started late, 3rd league game was as late as October) - 50.00%

Paul Hurst MKII

21/22 - 15 points from a possible 27 - 55.56%
22/23 - 9 points from a possible 24 - 37.50%

Manager Total 24 points from a possible 51 - 47.06%

Current season under Hurst

23/24 - 1 point from possible 12 - 8.33%


If we rank all of these managerial spells over the last 20+ years, Hurst 1st spell comes out on top with nearly 65% return on points available, followed by his combined spell (58.53).  If we take all of his games (including those with Scott), it's the third best Oct/Nov return with 57.21%.  

Only Slade's 2nd spell (I know, right!) with 55.56% breaks up a top 4 sweep for our Paul.  Scott & Hurst as as duo came with 53.70% for spot number 5, just ahead of Holloway with an exact 50%.

Our Oct/Nov average since 2001 is 45.07% return on points.  Hurst's second spell (it doesn't include this season) just gets above that with 47.06%.

Hurst's second spell return of 47.06% gets you 65 points over a season. 4 more than we managed last season and 12 less than the season before.

But this isn't an Oct slump its been pretty similar since start of season.

10 points from first 7 games
4 points from last 7 games

It was mid September but up until Wrexham we were in ok form.  Going into that game we were 12th, just two points off the play-off spots and with a seven point cushion from the bottom 2.

We're now nine points behind 7th placed Accrington (having played a game more than five of the sides above us) and just four points off 23rd placed Colchester  (two of the four teams below us have played a game less).

We've scored exactly the same amount of goals (average of 1 a game) in those two split spells, yet we've managed to concede a whopping 14 in the last 7 games compared to 6 in the first 7 games.

We have won one game in each of August , September and October. Not sure that’s a slump just more of the same.

Fitness and us shape carry us through early days I feel...then when other teams settle in to it we get overhauled.
My theory anyway.

October strikes again. Bad news is November is just as bad.

Quoted from diehardmariner

We've scored exactly the same amount of goals (average of 1 a game) in those two split spells, yet we've managed to concede a whopping 14 in the last 7 games compared to 6 in the first 7 games.

I look back almost wistfully to those halcyon days a month or so ago when we were complaining that we looked defensively solid enough, but where were the goals going to come from?

Aye, perhaps all we needed to do was just hold firm and wait for Wilson to get fit...