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Past Conference Play-off Finals/Stats

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Kymariner12
May 7, 2015, 6:11am
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2014-15 Bristol v Grimsby ??                              2007-08  Cambridge 0-1 Exeter   (4th)
2013-14 Cambridge 2-1 Gateshead              2006-07  Morecambe 2-1 Exeter  
2012-13 Wrexham 0-2 Newport                    2005-06  Hereford 3-2 Halifax      
2011-12 Luton 1-2 York                    (4th)           2004-05  Carlisle 1-0 Stevenage  
2010-11 Wimbledon 0-0 Luton (4-3p)            2003-04  Aldershot 1-1 Shrewsbury (0-3p)  
2009-10 Oxford 3-1 York                  (4th)             2002-03  Doncaster 3-2 Dagenham & Redbridge 2 (Donny golden goal)  (4th)
2008-09 Cambridge 0-2 Torquay       (4th)

This here is a list of all 12 previous conference playoff finals which you can feel free to draw stats from or hope. The number in brackets at the end of the fixture is where the eventual winner finished in that respective league season. As you may have noticed or be already aware, nobody finishing 5th has gone on to be promoted which is interesting but ineffective to our fixture as it's 2nd v 3rd. The winning positions as a % read, 2nd=25% 3rd=33% 4th=41% (more or less as I know that equals 99%), so going on that, history says there's a slight better success rate when finishing 3rd over 2nd (get in) but again this is only over 12 games and I'm sure there's something you could look at regarding the actual head to head in the final.

Penalties would be a surprise but with two miserly defences it could happen. Plenty of goals scored across the years but that would go against our league games with Bristol and communicates well with the aforementioned statistic happening.

The team that scores first generally goes onto win so let's hope that happens. Only once in the last 8 years has there been more than 3 goals scored in the final and there's only ever been one 0-0 draw and the split between scores is relatively even.

I enjoy stats so thought I'd share this, I've no idea how the game's going to go but sticking a fiver on either team winning 1-0 is probably what I'm gonna do (in favour of Town obviously!)
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Kymariner12
May 7, 2015, 6:12am
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Can only apologies with the smiley faces, didn't realise the computer would automatically generate them
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oldun
May 7, 2015, 8:32am

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No second finishers making it eh?
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Jarmo.Is.God
May 7, 2015, 9:16am

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Stats count for nothing.

We beat Cheltenham twice in the season then beat us at Wembley
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Jarmo.Is.God
May 7, 2015, 9:17am

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Beat us at millennium stadium even ! not Wembley
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mariner83
May 7, 2015, 9:17am

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Quoted from oldun
No second finishers making it eh?


Carlisle, Wimbledon & Cambridge
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pizzzza
May 7, 2015, 10:04am

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Not sure those stats really tell us anything, apart from the fact that the team that finishes 5th never win them.

How about this one:
An ex or future Town player has scored in each of the last 3 finals. Hopefully a current player will keep that connection going this year.
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prestonmariner
May 7, 2015, 11:06am
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Interesting stats, but it would also be interesting to see how the breakdown of winning and losing play-off finalists and how long they'd spent in the division. I wonder if any team has ever won the play-off final in their first season in Non-League?


UTM
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Abdul19
May 7, 2015, 1:20pm

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Quoted from prestonmariner
I wonder if any team has ever won the play-off final in their first season in Non-League?


Shrewsbury and Carlisle did.


“I hit the ball as though it owed me money.”
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mike502
May 7, 2015, 1:42pm
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One interesting thing to note is that, of the 12 conference play off finals to date, 10 were won by the team which had finished higher in the league season - only Exeter and Torquay beat teams which had finished ahead of them (Cambridge on both occasions).

But it's no more than an observation - I don't think that this actually has any great relevance to our game. Why on earth would the fact that Stevenage were unable to overcome Carlisle 10 years ago have any bearing on our ability to beat Bristol Rovers?
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