Welcome, Guest.
Please login or register.
Fishy Forum Fishy Boards Archive › Chances of Promotion
Users Browsing Forum
AdSense, Googlebot and 14 Guests

Chances of Promotion

  This thread currently has 1,704 views. Print
1 Pages 1 Recommend Thread
GrimRob
December 22, 2014, 9:06pm Report to Moderator

Moderator
Posts: 10,483
Posts Per Day: 2.29
Reputation: 68.28%
Rep Score: +72 / -35
Approval: +7,903
This is what my forecasting model currently says is the chances of promotion for the top few sides

Barnet     68.6%
Macclesfield     27.6%
Bristol Rovers     22.1%
Grimsby     22%
Eastleigh     12.6%
Kidderminster     12.2%
FC Halifax     9.7%
Woking     7.8%
Gateshead     4.4%
Forest Green     3.9%
Torquay     3.1%

of course it doesn't take into account the disavantage of being in the FA Trophy!


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

Logged Offline
Site Private Message Skype Skype
Teestogreen
December 22, 2014, 9:40pm Report to Moderator

Fine Wine Drinker
Posts: 1,367
Posts Per Day: 0.59
Reputation: 89.79%
Rep Score: +9 / 0
Approval: +478
Looks like Gateshead have had it then


Blundell Park - The Home of Grimsby Town Football Club (still)  
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 1 - 9
KingstonMariner
December 22, 2014, 11:49pm Report to Moderator
Barley Wine Drinker
Posts: 15,520
Posts Per Day: 6.99
Reputation: 83.35%
Rep Score: +37 / -7
Approval: +13,970
Quoted from GrimRob
This is what my forecasting model currently says is the chances of promotion for the top few sides

Barnet     68.6%
Macclesfield     27.6%
Bristol Rovers     22.1%
Grimsby     22%
Eastleigh     12.6%
Kidderminster     12.2%
FC Halifax     9.7%
Woking     7.8%
Gateshead     4.4%
Forest Green     3.9%
Torquay     3.1%

of course it doesn't take into account the disavantage of being in the FA Trophy!


What's it based on Rob? Without giving away too many secrets.  


Through the door there came familiar laughter,
I saw your face and heard you call my name.
Oh my friend we're older but no wiser,
For in our hearts the dreams are still the same.
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 2 - 9
MyDogsThoughts
December 23, 2014, 12:41am Report to Moderator

Woof Woof!!!
Vodka Drinker
Posts: 5,160
Posts Per Day: 1.15
Reputation: 78.41%
Rep Score: +43 / -12
Location: Near a Lamp Post
Approval: +40
Let's see your chances % wise after our two games with Macclesfield and see what our chances are then.


[img]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_0viO-Dm52sM/Rz9JfAGEp6I/AAAAAAAAD8Y/QB-YolLcMJ8/s320/big%2Bbones.jpg[/img]

"I Love Bones, But I Think I'll Lick My Balls Now"
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 3 - 9
GrimRob
December 23, 2014, 1:19pm Report to Moderator

Moderator
Posts: 10,483
Posts Per Day: 2.29
Reputation: 68.28%
Rep Score: +72 / -35
Approval: +7,903
Quoted from KingstonMariner


What's it based on Rob? Without giving away too many secrets.  


I calculate a ranking for each side and then use a technique called Monte Carlo Simulation to play the season out many times and look at the average results of that. You can see the results in full on another site I maintain (occasionally!).

http://footballcalculator.co.uk/


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

Logged Offline
Site Private Message Skype Skype
Reply: 4 - 9
mimma
December 23, 2014, 4:27pm Report to Moderator
Fine Wine Drinker
Posts: 1,455
Posts Per Day: 0.32
Reputation: 83.37%
Rep Score: +12 / -2
Approval: +2,734
What do the bookies say?

That's usually a good guide as they don't like to give money away.
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 5 - 9
KingstonMariner
December 23, 2014, 7:11pm Report to Moderator
Barley Wine Drinker
Posts: 15,520
Posts Per Day: 6.99
Reputation: 83.35%
Rep Score: +37 / -7
Approval: +13,970
Quoted from GrimRob


I calculate a ranking for each side and then use a technique called Monte Carlo Simulation to play the season out many times and look at the average results of that. You can see the results in full on another site I maintain (occasionally!).

http://footballcalculator.co.uk/


Cheers Rob. Intuitively the %ages you give feel about right, but I'm none the wiser (especially after reading the Wiki page). But then I'm maths illiterate beyond simple arithmetic.


Through the door there came familiar laughter,
I saw your face and heard you call my name.
Oh my friend we're older but no wiser,
For in our hearts the dreams are still the same.
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 6 - 9
GrimRob
December 24, 2014, 9:19am Report to Moderator

Moderator
Posts: 10,483
Posts Per Day: 2.29
Reputation: 68.28%
Rep Score: +72 / -35
Approval: +7,903
Coinidentally I realised the ratings were wrong at have redone the assessment. These are the "correct" numbers, although it probably underestimates Bristol Rovers

Barnet     71.7%
Grimsby     29.4%
Macclesfield     25.3%
Eastleigh     17.4%
Bristol Rovers     12.8%
Gateshead      11.2%
FC Halifax     8.8%
Kidderminster     8.5%
Woking     7.8%


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

Logged Offline
Site Private Message Skype Skype
Reply: 7 - 9
oldun
December 26, 2014, 10:25am Report to Moderator

Whiskey Drinker
Posts: 4,341
Posts Per Day: 1.28
Reputation: 90.37%
Rep Score: +57 / -5
Approval: +3,476
Not so sure about this Rob. You do some calculations, decide they are wrong so do them again and then think Bristol Rovers are in the wrong place. Therefore you keep recalculating until you like the look of the outcome. Mmmm might as well go with your gut and put them in that order eh!
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 8 - 9
moosey_club
December 26, 2014, 10:39am Report to Moderator
Barley Wine Drinker
Posts: 13,137
Posts Per Day: 2.88
Reputation: 78.69%
Rep Score: +66 / -18
Approval: +12,821
I can come up with a simpler format for pretty much the same result..

The team looking most likely to win the league get 75% of the only 100% guaranteed automatic promotion spot...
The four teams looking most likely to get in the play offs get 25% chance each of the 100% play off winner promotion spot..




2019/20  WDLDWWLDLWWLLLDLDLDLDDWWDLLWDDWWLWLLW 

2018/19  LWDDLLLLLLWWDWLLLWDWLWWWWLLLLWWWWDLLLDDLLDLWLW Hello Scunny  
2017/18  WLLLWLWWLDDWDWDDLLWWWDLDLLLLDLLDLLLLDLLDLWDWWW  
2016/17  WLLLWDWLWWLDWLDDWDLLLWDWWLWLDLDWLWLWLDDLWWLWLD
Logged Offline
Private Message
Reply: 9 - 9
1 Pages 1 Recommend Thread
Print

Fishy Forum Fishy Boards Archive › Chances of Promotion

Back to top of page

This is not an official forum of Grimsby Town Football Club, the opinions expressed are those of the individual authors. If you see an offensive post then click "Report" on the relevant post. Posts will be deleted at the discretion of the moderators whose decision is final. Posts should abide by the Forum Rules. IP addresses of contributors together with dates and times of access are stored. The opinions and viewpoints expressed by contributors to The Fishy are their own and not necessarily those of The Fishy. The Fishy makes no claims that information dispersed through this forum is accurate or reliable. Also The Fishy cannot be held liable for any statements made by contributors of The Fishy.