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 So what do we reckon?
Safe after Colchester? (27 votes)
21.09%
Done after Swindon? (52 votes)
40.62%
Nervy last day? (49 votes)
38.28%
128 Votes Total
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Voting in this poll has ended.

When can we breathe?

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diehardmariner
April 11, 2024, 1:16pm
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The Disgrace of the A12 doesn't quite have the same ring to it...
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BobbyCummingsTackle
April 11, 2024, 1:18pm
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Hmm, I have a mate who is a season ticket holder at Stockport and watched the Colchester game this week. His assessment does not make easy reading for us:

The best team in the bottom 4 they have played (they did last play us when we were getting battered by all and sundry)

Surprised they are struggling so badly

They'll survive

*Don't shoot the messenger*


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
April 11, 2024, 1:19pm
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Quoted from diehardmariner
The Disgrace of the A12 doesn't quite have the same ring to it...


Is that similar to the Birmingham M6?


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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diehardmariner
April 11, 2024, 1:21pm
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Feels like all season everyone's said Colchester are too good to go down.  

We've first hand experiences that this is an oxymoron if ever there was one.
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CodHead
April 11, 2024, 2:44pm
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In my opinion, if you’re in and around the relegation zone after 40 or so games you deserve to be there and are not too good to go down.
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AdamHaddock
April 11, 2024, 3:30pm

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Not relevant to the relegation battle but Morecambe have been docked three points, effectively ending their slim play off hopes.


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Poojah
April 11, 2024, 3:33pm
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Quoted from AdamHaddock
Not relevant to the relegation battle but Morecambe have been docked three points, effectively ending their slim play off hopes.


It’s tenuously relevant; they play Forest Green a week on Saturday. Had Forest Green not been all but gone, I’d have been slightly miffed about that.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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arryarryarry
April 11, 2024, 4:10pm
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Quoted from Poojah
Here’s a quick look at what each of our relegation rivals need to do to surpass us, without us winning another point:

FGR (3 games left) - 3 wins, or 2 wins 1 draw + 12GD swing

Sutton (3 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 2 draws, or 1 win 1 draw + 7GD swing

Colchester (5 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 3 draws, or 1 win 2 draws + 2GD swing

Fixtures remaining:

FGR
Wrexham (a)
Morecambe (a)
Notts County (h)

Sutton
Harrogate (a)
Crawley (h)
MK Dons (a)

Colchester
Crawley (a)
Town (h)
Notts County (a)
Doncaster (h)
Crewe (h)

—

In a scenario where we fail to pick up another point, there’s a good chance Colchester get past us, by virtue of the fact it means they’ll have beaten us. But then you look at what Forest Green need to do and who they have to play, and their chances of getting beyond us are infinitesimal - defeat on Saturday effectively relegates them, and you’d have to imagine that’s a likely outcome given they play Wrexham away, who have the single best home record in the league. They’re as good as gone.

So then that leaves us with Sutton as the major variable. Short of a sizeable GD swing (which looks unlikely with so few games remaining), they either need to win 2 of their last 3, or go unbeaten whilst picking up a win in the process. They’ve got 2 away games, against Harrogate and MK Dons, the latter of which may still be battling for automatic promotion when they play them on the final day.

There’s a potential fly in the ointment in that MK Dons might be out of the automatic chase by the time they play Sutton, and resting players, but there may still be an element of wanting to finish 4th for the supposed advantage that gives you in the play-offs. Their only home game is against Crawley, who are currently in the final play-off berth and have the 3rd best away record in the league.

Ultimately, Forest Green are gone and Sutton have it all to do. And that’s if we stay as we are in terms of points, with another 4 games to go of our own. Personally, I think the probability of us staying up with our current points total is high, and still think we’ll pick up another point or two (we ought to be beating Swindon at home).

I’m with everyone else who wants this wretched season over, but I’m very confident that it at least ends with a modicum of relief.


If we lose our last 4 games and Sutton and Colchester end up with the same points as us then our goal difference advantage would likely be wiped out due to the goals we would have conceded and the goals scored by the other two getting the points they need.
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TownSNAFU5
April 11, 2024, 4:12pm
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A lot of variables:

3 points option for every team, every game.

Some teams played more or fewer games.

Goal difference:  we can be clearly the best. Or, lose this advantage if heavy defeats for us and/or big wins for our rivals.

With so few games remaining, each game assumes greater significance.  The pressures increase.

Teams in automatic and playoff positions want to maintain their positions.   Teams challenging for these places are highly motivated to win.


Consistency:  or the lack of it.  When we went 6 games unbeaten every other team had lost in a 5 game spell.

Teams at the bottom are more inconsistent - bar losing.  Sutton won 3 games then lost heavily.  

We have teams with a lot of injuries and a few injuries.  Teams with little or nothing to play for.  Teams in form or out of form.

Now a points deduction.


So, too many unknown variables to forecast.
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BobbyCummingsTackle
April 11, 2024, 5:44pm
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Quoted from TownSNAFU5


too many unknown variables to forecast.


Technically you are, of course, correct. But your post forgets a key factor: this message board is full of people either trying to fill their time while avoiding doing some actual work (hello...) or are retired and are entertaining themselves between naps or avoiding jobs their other half wants them to do ('of course love, just a bit tied up right now....')

This message board is doing vital community work and trying to shut down hours of harmless speculation is counter to the general good of society. I note your comment but you really do need to see the big picture.


Miss Scunthorpe. Not a beauty pageant, just sound advice.
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