Omicron

Professors Lockdown latest update.

The 10-day Covid isolation period could be shortened to a week with the same effect, the scientist behind Britain’s lockdowns has suggested.

Prof Neil Ferguson said that as long as people completed a negative lateral flow test, the window could be reduced.

The Imperial College London modeller, who sits on the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), is now the most senior scientist to suggest that the 10-day rule could be relaxed.

It comes as desperate business leaders also called for a cut in the period of isolation, branding the current policy “lockdown by stealth”.

Prof Ferguson was speaking the day after his group published its initial findings into omicron in the UK.

They found evidence that the variant can evade immunity, both from prior infection or vaccination, to a “substantial extent”, and said there was no evidence that omicron was intrinsically milder than delta.

Prof Ferguson’s group project that there could be 5,000 deaths a day thanks to the new variant, despite there being only around 65 people currently in hospital with it, according to official figures on Friday.


Sage predicts a significant increase in hospital admissions, to roughly 3,000 a day.

However, a comparable increase has not played out in South Africa, where the outbreak started, and clinicians have reported that cases appear to be less severe.

Evidence has also emerged from South Africa suggesting that omicron patients’ period of infection is shorter than with previous variants.

Asked about the feasibility of reducing the isolation period to seven days, Prof Ferguson told Today on BBC Radio 4 on Saturday: “I think it’s always a trade-off between the effectiveness of those things and people’s adherence to them.

“I think if it could be coupled with lateral flow testing, so testing to release - and this was looked at some months ago, even a year ago in terms of these rules - all the modelling and analysis which suggests if it’s coupled with lateral flow testing, it’s not going to reduce the effectiveness of the measures that much.”

His comments chimed with those of Prof Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, who said omicron patients were most infectious in the first five days, after which infectiousness falls.

‘Some people are no longer infectious after three days and it makes no sense to keep them locked up,” he said.

“Isolating people for 10 days when they are no longer infectious will harm the economy and leave vital public services, such as the NHS, short-staffed.

“People could perhaps take a daily lateral flow test and be allowed to leave quarantine if they test negative for two days in a row.”

Meanwhile the British Chamber of Commerce has warned businesses will fail unless they are given support from the Treasury amid rising cases of the omicron variant.

Hannah Essex, the co-executive director, said: “What we need to hear pretty much now, over the weekend, which should have been one of the busiest weekends of the year for businesses, is what are they going to do.

“Doing nothing is not an option right now … or we will see businesses fail.”

Quoted from Stadium

Professors Lockdown latest update.

The 10-day Covid isolation period could be shortened to a week with the same effect, the scientist behind Britain’s lockdowns has suggested.

Prof Neil Ferguson said that as long as people completed a negative lateral flow test, the window could be reduced.

The Imperial College London modeller, who sits on the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), is now the most senior scientist to suggest that the 10-day rule could be relaxed.

It comes as desperate business leaders also called for a cut in the period of isolation, branding the current policy “lockdown by stealth”.

Prof Ferguson was speaking the day after his group published its initial findings into omicron in the UK.

They found evidence that the variant can evade immunity, both from prior infection or vaccination, to a “substantial extent”, and said there was no evidence that omicron was intrinsically milder than delta.

Prof Ferguson’s group project that there could be 5,000 deaths a day thanks to the new variant, despite there being only around 65 people currently in hospital with it, according to official figures on Friday.


Sage predicts a significant increase in hospital admissions, to roughly 3,000 a day.

However, a comparable increase has not played out in South Africa, where the outbreak started, and clinicians have reported that cases appear to be less severe.

Evidence has also emerged from South Africa suggesting that omicron patients’ period of infection is shorter than with previous variants.

Asked about the feasibility of reducing the isolation period to seven days, Prof Ferguson told Today on BBC Radio 4 on Saturday: “I think it’s always a trade-off between the effectiveness of those things and people’s adherence to them.

“I think if it could be coupled with lateral flow testing, so testing to release - and this was looked at some months ago, even a year ago in terms of these rules - all the modelling and analysis which suggests if it’s coupled with lateral flow testing, it’s not going to reduce the effectiveness of the measures that much.”

His comments chimed with those of Prof Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, who said omicron patients were most infectious in the first five days, after which infectiousness falls.

‘Some people are no longer infectious after three days and it makes no sense to keep them locked up,” he said.

“Isolating people for 10 days when they are no longer infectious will harm the economy and leave vital public services, such as the NHS, short-staffed.

“People could perhaps take a daily lateral flow test and be allowed to leave quarantine if they test negative for two days in a row.”

Meanwhile the British Chamber of Commerce has warned businesses will fail unless they are given support from the Treasury amid rising cases of the omicron variant.

Hannah Essex, the co-executive director, said: “What we need to hear pretty much now, over the weekend, which should have been one of the busiest weekends of the year for businesses, is what are they going to do.

“Doing nothing is not an option right now … or we will see businesses fail.”

5000 deaths a day! If Ferguson told me it was Sunday tomorrow I’d have to double check.

So, Holland now into lockdown, despite a relatively small number of cases in comparison to the UK. It will be interesting to contrast how things progress over there compared to us, though bear in mind over a week of cases is baked in from infections which have already taken place.

We're all being fcuked up the bottom but being convinced that each other is responsible for us being fcuked up the bottom while the people who are actually fcuking us up the bottom sit back and snigger.

I will not be happy with another lockdown,  we do need to get back to normal at some stage, we can't keep locking down over every variant otherwise we will forever be like this as there will forever be new variants.

Who is actually going to comply with a lockdown now when most of us are fed up? Likewise they don't follow their own rules so why would others?

The biggest pandemic we are facing atm is the amount of suicides, all these lockdowns and restrictions is just contributing to poor mental health which is tipping people over the edge and people are taking the decision to end their lives. And don't forget all deaths are within 28 days of a Covid positive test so I could test positive now, recover and then be stabbed to death in Jan and I'll go down as a covid death. I would be interested to know just how many people has actually died from just Covid and they had no other contributing health issues.

It's a complete myth that there have been a spate of suicides due to lockdowns. Don't have the numbers to hand but, if you search, you should quite easily be able to find studies which indicate fewer people have actually taken their lives during the pandemic than usual. That's not to say it isn't putting strain on the mental health of many.

Those voices who have been claiming the virus is now endemic will get their wish once Omicron has swept its way through the population during the next few months, though I'd imagine there will still be a serious burden of illness for a few years yet.

The Times was reporting yesterday that the government is planning a 2 week circuit breaker lockdown after Christmas. Would be a couple of weeks too late which is par for the course with this government so sounds a distinct possibility.

Lock up the elderly the vulnerable and the scared for 2 weeks let this mild cold spread throughout so we end up like South Africa. With thanks to the reported 23M still unvaccinated who will give the nation the natural immunity that vaccines cannot and end this madness once and for all.

Interesting article on SAGE & modeling.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/ar.....-modelling-committee

The latest Sage paper-drop — the 6,000-deaths-a-day one — refers to ‘scenarios,’ not predictions. Professor Medley emphasises the distinction: saying something could happen is not saying that there's a realistic chance of it happening. But then why do Sage modellers publish some scenarios and not others?

Surely a scenario is a prediction and in truth, perhaps they have access to whichever data they want, a prediction is just that. A prediction.

I could sit on my fat hairy bottom and say that millions will not get Omicron or whatever new variant they discover around the time of the next large public holiday and that’s all it is, a prediction. I could equally say millions will get it.

One thing that has been clear throughout this whole thing is the variation in gathering and sharing data.

Not everybody tests, not everyone is unvaccinated, not everyone that’s been recorded as a covid death died from covid or even complications caused by covid.

It’s all a mess and lockdowns will do nothing to really help long term. I’ve made more referrals in the last year to mental health services than I’ve ever had, and I’ve even had to help adults/parent/careers self refer too.

Whilst I’d agree to some extent that covid can’t be blamed for a spike in suicides, it’s multifaceted and not as simple as putting a finger on one thing, suicide is, for me, a far bigger concern. It’s prevalent and the counties underfunding of mental health services and social care are creating a pandemic but people are getting wrapped up in worrying about a couple of people not wearing a mask rather than issues that have been apparent before covid and will be significantly increased after…

I mean, we’re 137k beds less since tory austerity, those beds may have helped the pressure on the NHS during all this…but still, it’s easier for Boris and co to guilt trip us and blame everyone except themselves…

And to think they use the same kind of modelling to spoon feed their climate agenda. Nation full of idiots.