|
GrimRob |
December 22, 2014, 9:06pm |
|
Moderator
Posts: 12,687
Posts Per Day: 2.12
Reputation: 69.92%
Rep Score: +76 / -34
Approval: +13,436
Gold Stars: 113
|
This is what my forecasting model currently says is the chances of promotion for the top few sides
Barnet 68.6% Macclesfield 27.6% Bristol Rovers 22.1% Grimsby 22% Eastleigh 12.6% Kidderminster 12.2% FC Halifax 9.7% Woking 7.8% Gateshead 4.4% Forest Green 3.9% Torquay 3.1%
of course it doesn't take into account the disavantage of being in the FA Trophy!
|
| 'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all. ~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
|
|
|
|
|
Teestogreen |
December 22, 2014, 9:40pm |
|
Posts: 2,126
Posts Per Day: 0.57
Reputation: 81.8%
Rep Score: +10 / -2
Approval: -160
Gold Stars: 23
|
Looks like Gateshead have had it then
|
| Blundell Park - The Home of Grimsby Town Football Club (still) |
|
|
|
|
KingstonMariner |
December 22, 2014, 11:49pm |
|
Meths Drinker
Posts: 22,096
Posts Per Day: 6.05
Reputation: 79.33%
Rep Score: +42 / -11
Approval: +23,440
Gold Stars: 218
|
This is what my forecasting model currently says is the chances of promotion for the top few sides
Barnet 68.6% Macclesfield 27.6% Bristol Rovers 22.1% Grimsby 22% Eastleigh 12.6% Kidderminster 12.2% FC Halifax 9.7% Woking 7.8% Gateshead 4.4% Forest Green 3.9% Torquay 3.1%
of course it doesn't take into account the disavantage of being in the FA Trophy!
What's it based on Rob? Without giving away too many secrets.
|
| Through the door there came familiar laughter, I saw your face and heard you call my name. Oh my friend we're older but no wiser, For in our hearts the dreams are still the same. |
|
|
|
|
MyDogsThoughts |
December 23, 2014, 12:41am |
|
Woof Woof!!! Vodka Drinker
Posts: 5,160
Posts Per Day: 0.87
Reputation: 78.41%
Rep Score: +43 / -12
Location: Near a Lamp Post
Approval: +38
|
Let's see your chances % wise after our two games with Macclesfield and see what our chances are then.
|
| [img]http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_0viO-Dm52sM/Rz9JfAGEp6I/AAAAAAAAD8Y/QB-YolLcMJ8/s320/big%2Bbones.jpg[/img]
"I Love Bones, But I Think I'll Lick My Balls Now" |
|
|
|
|
GrimRob |
December 23, 2014, 1:19pm |
|
Moderator
Posts: 12,687
Posts Per Day: 2.12
Reputation: 69.92%
Rep Score: +76 / -34
Approval: +13,436
Gold Stars: 113
|
What's it based on Rob? Without giving away too many secrets.
I calculate a ranking for each side and then use a technique called Monte Carlo Simulation to play the season out many times and look at the average results of that. You can see the results in full on another site I maintain (occasionally!). http://footballcalculator.co.uk/
|
| 'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all. ~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
|
|
|
|
|
mimma |
December 23, 2014, 4:27pm |
|
Brandy Drinker
Posts: 2,650
Posts Per Day: 0.44
Reputation: 85.27%
Rep Score: +15 / -2
Approval: +5,574
Gold Stars: 78
|
What do the bookies say?
That's usually a good guide as they don't like to give money away.
|
|
|
|
|
KingstonMariner |
December 23, 2014, 7:11pm |
|
Meths Drinker
Posts: 22,096
Posts Per Day: 6.05
Reputation: 79.33%
Rep Score: +42 / -11
Approval: +23,440
Gold Stars: 218
|
I calculate a ranking for each side and then use a technique called Monte Carlo Simulation to play the season out many times and look at the average results of that. You can see the results in full on another site I maintain (occasionally!). http://footballcalculator.co.uk/
Cheers Rob. Intuitively the %ages you give feel about right, but I'm none the wiser (especially after reading the Wiki page). But then I'm maths illiterate beyond simple arithmetic.
|
| Through the door there came familiar laughter, I saw your face and heard you call my name. Oh my friend we're older but no wiser, For in our hearts the dreams are still the same. |
|
|
|
|
GrimRob |
December 24, 2014, 9:19am |
|
Moderator
Posts: 12,687
Posts Per Day: 2.12
Reputation: 69.92%
Rep Score: +76 / -34
Approval: +13,436
Gold Stars: 113
|
Coinidentally I realised the ratings were wrong at have redone the assessment. These are the "correct" numbers, although it probably underestimates Bristol Rovers
Barnet 71.7% Grimsby 29.4% Macclesfield 25.3% Eastleigh 17.4% Bristol Rovers 12.8% Gateshead 11.2% FC Halifax 8.8% Kidderminster 8.5% Woking 7.8%
|
| 'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all. ~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
|
|
|
|
|
oldun |
December 26, 2014, 10:25am |
|
Whiskey Drinker
Posts: 4,341
Posts Per Day: 0.90
Reputation: 90.37%
Rep Score: +57 / -5
Approval: +3,475
|
Not so sure about this Rob. You do some calculations, decide they are wrong so do them again and then think Bristol Rovers are in the wrong place. Therefore you keep recalculating until you like the look of the outcome. Mmmm might as well go with your gut and put them in that order eh!
|
|
|
|
|
moosey_club |
December 26, 2014, 10:39am |
|
Barley Wine Drinker
Posts: 16,202
Posts Per Day: 2.70
Reputation: 76.19%
Rep Score: +69 / -22
Approval: +20,298
Gold Stars: 226
|
I can come up with a simpler format for pretty much the same result..
The team looking most likely to win the league get 75% of the only 100% guaranteed automatic promotion spot... The four teams looking most likely to get in the play offs get 25% chance each of the 100% play off winner promotion spot..
|
| 2023/24 DLWDDWDLLLWDLLLLWDDDWDLLWLDLLDWDDWLLDWLWLWL but not NLN 😁 2022/23LDWDWWDWLLDWWDLLLDLWLLWLWLLWDDLDWWDDDLLWDWLWLW 2021/22 WDWWWWDLWWWWLLLWLLDLWLLWWDWWWLWDLWWDWWWDLWD play offs WWW Promoted 🥳 2020/21 LLDWWLDLDWLWLLLDLWLLDLLDLLLWLLLDDDDWDDDLWLWLWL .. hello darkness my old friend 2019/20 WDLDWWLDLWWLLLDLDLDLDDWWDLLWDDWWL WLLW - ended 2018/19 LWDDLLLLLLWWDWLLLWDWLWWWWLLLLWWWWDLLLDDLLDLWLW Hello Scunny |
|
|
|
|