Halifax and Kings Lynn Both Off

we've got 1 game in the next month! we better bloody win it

Quoted from MuddyWaters

73k Covid deaths.

How many died with Covid and how many died because of Covid? How many died because of serious comorbidities? If you look at many weeks during the summer, the actual death rate was lower than average.
The phrase ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’ springs to mind. Every death is very sad and many families have reason to blame Covid for a family member’s passing but for others it was one of a number of causes.
Let’s just hope that Omicron does prove to be weaker and that the 95+% of us with antibodies can get us to the herd immunity we need.

The death rate being lower doesn't mean that people weren't dying of Covid. And do you not think there's a very strong chance that the reason the death rate is lower is because Covid has killed a load more people than normal over the last 2 years? That does suggest that these people were going to die soon anyway, and I've always been against the measures we've taken, but it doesn't change the fact that Covid has killed a lot more people than flu does. Let's not forget that the impact of lockdowns dramatically reduced the spread of other diseases that typically cause a lot of deaths and these have been lower throughout the year due to the low starting point.

Take the death rate of seasonal flu in 2019-2020 for 18-49 year old it's 1.6 deaths per 100k. For Covid that is 2 at the young end and 40 at the high end. Taking the middle point of that data puts Covid 13 times more deadly. This is an age group that we don't vaccinate for flu and have for Covid. You aren't seriously trying to claim that they're making the numbers 13 times bigger for Covid by people getting run over by a bus and having deaths completely unrelated to Covid?

Quoted from HerveJosse

Back to football. We are the only club in the National League with games off on these two dates.Our area currently has one of the lowest Covid rates in the country. The self isolation period has been reduced from 10 to 7 days  which was flagged as likely before the games were called off meaning those who were not available at Stockport would be likely to be..But don’t worry all is well at our club.

Do you think you could go out and play a competitive game of football after seven days in the confines of a 3 bed semi or even worse, digs? A large portion of that will have been feeling rough and many of your teammates will have gone through the same too so lets not put players having Covid down as further evidence all is not well.

Maybe you would have preferred the club to call Halifax off at 11am on Boxing Day whilst you were sat on the M62?

The total overreaction by some on this forum over the last few weeks

I've seen some people post that we need a full lockdown immediately!

The season will be null and void in a few weeks!

Every remainder game this season will be played behind closed doors!

Total overreaction because...

we've had Omicron for over 2 weeks now in this country, hospitalisations normally lag 2 weeks behind, it's over 2 weeks and we are still yet to see hospitalisations rise dramatically (apart from London), last 7 day average cases are up 63% and hospitalisations up only 2%, also cases look like they may be levelling off now (but I do accept we need a few more days of below 100k to really draw that conclusion) but even if they aren't leveling off, it is clear that they aren't rising as quickly as they did when we first detected Omicron 2 weeks ago.

SAGE and In particular Neil Ferguson's projections all the way through this pandemic have ended up being horribly horribly wrong.

All of the above makes me think we don't need anymore restrictions, and nothing will change my mind as if we need more restrictions after the 2 jabs and booster then where's the way out? It's about time we get back to normal now and leave it to personal choice, we are capable of personal choice as we have already seen people cancel Christmas parties and limit their contact etc up to Christmas. No more restrictions needed!

Quoted from Davec

The total overreaction by some on this forum over the last few weeks

I've seen some people post that we need a full lockdown immediately!

The season will be null and void in a few weeks!

Every remainder game this season will be played behind closed doors!

Total overreaction because...

we've had Omicron for over 2 weeks now in this country, hospitalisations normally lag 2 weeks behind, it's over 2 weeks and we are still yet to see hospitalisations rise dramatically (apart from London), last 7 day average cases are up 63% and hospitalisations up only 2%, also cases look like they may be levelling off now (but I do accept we need a few more days of below 100k to really draw that conclusion) but even if they aren't leveling off, it is clear that they aren't rising as quickly as they did when we first detected Omicron 2 weeks ago.

SAGE and In particular Neil Ferguson's projections all the way through this pandemic have ended up being horribly horribly wrong.

All of the above makes me think we don't need anymore restrictions, and nothing will change my mind as if we need more restrictions after the 2 jabs and booster then where's the way out? It's about time we get back to normal now and leave it to personal choice, we are capable of personal choice as we have already seen people cancel Christmas parties and limit their contact etc up to Christmas. No more restrictions needed!

On the 7th December, there were 45k cases reported and the 7 day moving average was 43k-45k for the 7 days previously. So Omicron/the increase in cases hasn't been a relevant factor for 2 weeks yet.

Omicron was prevalent in London before anywhere else, so that is where you would see the first increase in hospitalisations and as you say we've already started to see that there.

Funny how you can see the same statistics and conclude everything is ok, yet the things you're saying are either contradicted or inconclusive from the data and time frame.

Quoted from pen penfras

On the 7th December, there were 45k cases reported and the 7 day moving average was 43k-45k for the 7 days previously. So Omicron/the increase in cases hasn't been a relevant factor for 2 weeks yet.

Omicron was prevalent in London before anywhere else, so that is where you would see the first increase in hospitalisations and as you say we've already started to see that there.

Funny how you can see the same statistics and conclude everything is ok, yet the things you're saying are either contradicted or inconclusive from the data and time frame.

I didn't say everything was "ok" of course we are still at a a critical stage but from what I've seen and listening to other professors etc (not from Sage who have always been horribly wrong) they mostly seem to share the same view that we should be ok without further restrictions.

Have a look at the twitter conversation Fraser Nelson the journalist had with Graham Medley from SAGE, also whilst you are at it have a look at Prof Neil Ferguson's predictions over the last 20 years to the present day on numerous different illnesses such as Bird Flu, Swine Flu etc and Covid and look how very wrong he always has been.

Quoted from Davec

I didn't say everything was "ok" of course we are still at a a critical stage but from what I've seen and listening to other professors etc (not from Sage who have always been horribly wrong) they mostly seem to share the same view that we should be ok without further restrictions.

Have a look at the twitter conversation Fraser Nelson the journalist had with Graham Medley from SAGE, also whilst you are at it have a look at Prof Neil Ferguson's predictions over the last 20 years to the present day on numerous different illnesses such as Bird Flu, Swine Flu etc and Covid and look how very wrong he always has been.

I'm not going to look at a twitter thread to see one scientist back up your point of view. Most of the scientists have been massively wrong with every prediction they've made. Some have been right about some things. It all just seems like plucking numbers out of the air and it's boring listening to the doomsday predictions just as much as it is listening to the people that try to minimise the impact that Covid has had. As a percentage for young people, the death rate is fairly small, but as a society it is high enough to have devastated our health care capacity.

I'd rather we stopped pumping money into the economy to prop us up for more lockdowns and spent it on hospitals so that we're prepared to meet the demand that not locking down will bring.

Quoted from pen penfras

I'm not going to look at a twitter thread to see one scientist back up your point of view. Most of the scientists have been massively wrong with every prediction they've made. Some have been right about some things. It all just seems like plucking numbers out of the air and it's boring listening to the doomsday predictions just as much as it is listening to the people that try to minimise the impact that Covid has had. As a percentage for young people, the death rate is fairly small, but as a society it is high enough to have devastated our health care capacity.

I'd rather we stopped pumping money into the economy to prop us up for more lockdowns and spent it on hospitals so that we're prepared to meet the demand that not locking down will bring.

Years of under investment in the NHS can not be resolved in the short to medium term. It would be like turning the Titanic in McDonald's car park.

Quoted from Dogger Bank

Idiot.

Hook line and sinker

The increase in number of positive cases has also increased with the number of tests being carried out. Over the last week there is an average of 6% of all tests that have been done that have resulted in a positive result. That means that 94% of those tested have not been identified as having Covid.

I have read the article mentioned above and it is interesting in that SAGE would appear to only report on those scenarios which give a significant rise in the number of hospitalisations and deaths. The scenarios that adjust for a reduced severity would suggest a small rise in the number of people going into hospitals and those dying. However, the argument for not presenting these to the government is that there would be no decision to make on lockdown or restrictions so they don't need to know these. The media also don't want to know about these scenarios as they cannot sensationalise them.

Amazingly, think the government has got this right in that no restrictions being considered until the severity data starts to show the effect of the new variant !!