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We should tread carefully

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RonMariner
June 25, 2022, 2:02pm

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Quoted from Barrattstander
If we finish above 14th next season then we will have ended in our highest position for 17 years......which is literally a lifetime for a large proportion of our younger fans.


Wow, that is a shocking statistic.
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grimsby pete
June 25, 2022, 2:25pm

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It.s hard to say where we will finish until Paul gets his squad together but we will have a decent side whoever we sign.

Paul has the backing of the board and will have big crowds to support the team where ever we play.

I fully expect a top ten finish but hoping for more.

Can't wait for the season to start.



                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
                             68 Years following the Town

                              Life member of Trust

                               First game   April 1955
                               
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toontown
June 25, 2022, 3:04pm
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I do think some people might  be a bit carried away saying there is little difference between top of NL and league 2. The experiences of newly promoted sides don't bear that out. Since we were promoted last time here is how the 2 promoted sides each time have fared the next season in league 2:

15/16
Champs Cheltenham = 21st
Play offs Town = 14th

1617
Champs lincoln = 7th
Po FGR = 21st

1718
Champs Macclesfield = 22nd
Po tranmere = 6th

1819
Champs Leyton orient = 17th
Po Salford = 11th

1920
Champs Barrow = 21st
Po Harrogate = 17th

2021
Champs Sutton = 8th
Po hartlepool = 17th

So it's pretty unusual to challenge the next season. Lincoln did after being champions, scraping into the playoffs and being knocked out in the semis. Tranmere also but they were runners up. The absolutely vital thing I think is to not lose momentum, like lincoln, that pretty successful season allowing them to hold on to their new fans, build further, and go up the next year.
I agree that top half would be good but if were not to get in the playoffs then top 10 would be really good to keep in touch with the playoffs until the final weeks and keep everybody interested, so the season mostly feels like something is riding on it and keeps the atmosphere of interest to the more casual fans.
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DB
June 25, 2022, 3:41pm
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Quoted from toontown
I do think some people might  be a bit carried away saying there is little difference between top of NL and league 2. The experiences of newly promoted sides don't bear that out. Since we were promoted last time here is how the 2 promoted sides each time have fared the next season in league 2:

15/16
Champs Cheltenham = 21st
Play offs Town = 14th

1617
Champs lincoln = 7th
Po FGR = 21st

1718
Champs Macclesfield = 22nd
Po tranmere = 6th

1819
Champs Leyton orient = 17th
Po Salford = 11th

1920
Champs Barrow = 21st
Po Harrogate = 17th

2021
Champs Sutton = 8th
Po hartlepool = 17th

So it's pretty unusual to challenge the next season. Lincoln did after being champions, scraping into the playoffs and being knocked out in the semis. Tranmere also but they were runners up. The absolutely vital thing I think is to not lose momentum, like lincoln, that pretty successful season allowing them to hold on to their new fans, build further, and go up the next year.
I agree that top half would be good but if were not to get in the playoffs then top 10 would be really good to keep in touch with the playoffs until the final weeks and keep everybody interested, so the season mostly feels like something is riding on it and keeps the atmosphere of interest to the more casual fans.


You can't argue with stats, but somebody has to do a double promotion so it may as well be us. Going up.



You can please some of the forumites some of the time but not all the forumites all of the time
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GollyGTFC
June 25, 2022, 5:58pm

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Quoted from toontown
I do think some people might  be a bit carried away saying there is little difference between top of NL and league 2. The experiences of newly promoted sides don't bear that out. Since we were promoted last time here is how the 2 promoted sides each time have fared the next season in league 2:

15/16
Champs Cheltenham = 21st
Play offs Town = 14th

1617
Champs lincoln = 7th
Po FGR = 21st

1718
Champs Macclesfield = 22nd
Po tranmere = 6th

1819
Champs Leyton orient = 17th
Po Salford = 11th

1920
Champs Barrow = 21st
Po Harrogate = 17th

2021
Champs Sutton = 8th
Po hartlepool = 17th

So it's pretty unusual to challenge the next season. Lincoln did after being champions, scraping into the playoffs and being knocked out in the semis. Tranmere also but they were runners up. The absolutely vital thing I think is to not lose momentum, like lincoln, that pretty successful season allowing them to hold on to their new fans, build further, and go up the next year.
I agree that top half would be good but if were not to get in the playoffs then top 10 would be really good to keep in touch with the playoffs until the final weeks and keep everybody interested, so the season mostly feels like something is riding on it and keeps the atmosphere of interest to the more casual fans.


Lets take these stats and then focus in on the clubs who are similarly sized to Grimsby. I think it's fair to say our average attendance next season will be in excess of 6,000. I don't think anyone would argue with that would they?

Well lets have a look how clubs who have been promoted from the Conference/National League and had an average attendance of 6,000 or higher in their first season in League 2 have done. Since it went to 2 up and 2 down between League 2 & the National League there have been 8 promoted teams that have averaged over 6,000 the season after their promotion...

2017/18 - LINCOLN CITY - 7TH - Ave. Attendance: 8,782
2014/15 - LUTON TOWN - 8TH - Ave. Attendance: 8,702
2015/16 - BRISTOL ROVERS - 3RD (P) - Ave. Attendance: 8,096
2010/11 - OXFORD UNITED - 12TH - Ave. Attendance: 7,277
2005/06 - CARLISLE UNITED - 1ST (C) - Ave. Attendance: 7,218
2003/04 - DONCASTER ROVERS - 1ST (C) - Ave. Attendance: 6,938
2018/19 - TRANMERE ROVERS - 6TH (P) - Ave. Attendance: 6,552
2003/04 - YEOVIL TOWN - 8TH - Ave. Attendance: 6,196

So...

All 8 finished in the top half of League 2.
7 of the 8 finished at least 8th.

Half (4 out of the 8 clubs) have achieved promotion to L1 at the first attempt.
Another 2 were promoted to L1 in their second season after promotion (Yeovil & Lincoln)
Another team was promoted to L1 in their third season after promotion (Luton)
The final team was promoted to L1 in their sixth season after promotion (Oxford)

Lets cut the "we should be happy to stay up" & "lower mid-table would be fine" cr@p. Both ourselves and Stockport will average over 6,000 and both of us should be focused on qualifying for the play-offs as a minimum and targeting promotion as a realistic objective.
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DB
June 25, 2022, 6:02pm
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Quoted from GollyGTFC


Lets take these stats and then focus in on the clubs who are similarly sized to Grimsby. I think it's fair to say our average attendance next season will be in excess of 6,000. I don't think anyone would argue with that would they?

Well lets have a look how clubs who have been promoted from the Conference/National League and had an average attendance of 6,000 or higher in their first season in League 2 have done. Since it went to 2 up and 2 down between League 2 & the National League there have been 8 promoted teams that have averaged over 6,000 the season after their promotion...

2017/18 - LINCOLN CITY - 7TH - Ave. Attendance: 8,782
2014/15 - LUTON TOWN - 8TH - Ave. Attendance: 8,702
2015/16 - BRISTOL ROVERS - 3RD (P) - Ave. Attendance: 8,096
2010/11 - OXFORD UNITED - 12TH - Ave. Attendance: 7,277
2005/06 - CARLISLE - 1ST (C) - Ave. Attendance: 7,218
2003/04 - DONCASTER ROVERS - 1ST (C) - Ave. Attendance: 6,938
2018/19 - TRANMERE ROVERS - 6TH (P) - Ave. Attendance: 6,552
2003/04 - YEOVIL TOWN - 8TH - Ave. Attendance: 6,196

So...

All 8 finished in the top half of League 2.
7 of the 8 finished at least 8th.

Half (4 out of the 8 clubs) have achieved promotion to L1 at the first attempt.
Another 2 were promoted to L1 in their second season after promotion (Yeovil & Lincoln)
Another team was promoted to L1 in their third season after promotion (Luton)
The final team was promoted to L1 in their sixth season after promotion (Oxford)

Lets cut the "we should be happy to stay up" & "lower mid-table would be fine" cr@p. Both ourselves and Stockport will average over 6,000 and both of us should be focused on qualifying for the play-offs as a minimum and targeting promotion as a realistic objective.


Positive, enthusiastic optimism. I love it. Going up



You can please some of the forumites some of the time but not all the forumites all of the time
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Abdul19
June 25, 2022, 6:08pm

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Agreed. We're a big club at this level and we've got momentum. We can consolidate when we're dead.

(Not entirely sure what that means but you get the jist)


JESUS AT THE CENTRE
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GrimPol
June 25, 2022, 7:15pm
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Quoted from PrestwichMariner
Personally I'm just hoping to see a good competitive team out there and not being worried about relegation. Anything else will be a bonus!


Each League is competitive, so for me above halfway this time around, with "maybe a push" 23-24??

And gentlemen in Grimsby now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon the 5th of June day.
  
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ska face
June 25, 2022, 7:34pm

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Quoted from GollyGTFC


Lets take these stats and then focus in on the clubs who are similarly sized to Grimsby. I think it's fair to say our average attendance next season will be in excess of 6,000. I don't think anyone would argue with that would they?

Well lets have a look how clubs who have been promoted from the Conference/National League and had an average attendance of 6,000 or higher in their first season in League 2 have done. Since it went to 2 up and 2 down between League 2 & the National League there have been 8 promoted teams that have averaged over 6,000 the season after their promotion...

2017/18 - LINCOLN CITY - 7TH - Ave. Attendance: 8,782
2014/15 - LUTON TOWN - 8TH - Ave. Attendance: 8,702
2015/16 - BRISTOL ROVERS - 3RD (P) - Ave. Attendance: 8,096
2010/11 - OXFORD UNITED - 12TH - Ave. Attendance: 7,277
2005/06 - CARLISLE UNITED - 1ST (C) - Ave. Attendance: 7,218
2003/04 - DONCASTER ROVERS - 1ST (C) - Ave. Attendance: 6,938
2018/19 - TRANMERE ROVERS - 6TH (P) - Ave. Attendance: 6,552
2003/04 - YEOVIL TOWN - 8TH - Ave. Attendance: 6,196

So...

All 8 finished in the top half of League 2.
7 of the 8 finished at least 8th.

Half (4 out of the 8 clubs) have achieved promotion to L1 at the first attempt.
Another 2 were promoted to L1 in their second season after promotion (Yeovil & Lincoln)
Another team was promoted to L1 in their third season after promotion (Luton)
The final team was promoted to L1 in their sixth season after promotion (Oxford)

Lets cut the "we should be happy to stay up" & "lower mid-table would be fine" cr@p. Both ourselves and Stockport will average over 6,000 and both of us should be focused on qualifying for the play-offs as a minimum and targeting promotion as a realistic objective.


Good stats Golly. Wonder if that has any bearing on squad churn, my favourite variable. You’d imagine that teams who keep the bulk of their successful squads and make a few key additions may fare better than those who need to make big changes or have their best players picked off for more money?

Run it through the churn-o-meter.
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Plankton
June 25, 2022, 8:00pm

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It took a little while, longer that expected but true through form a moronic thread happened. Let’s hope next season is even longer for the dunce thread creator of the pre-season.
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