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Not looking good for Scunny

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Poojah
February 1, 2022, 9:49pm
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Dear oh dear. Barrow winning away at 5th placed Northampton tonight won’t have been a part of the Scunny recovery plan, and Colchester adding a point to their tally won’t have helped either.

They’re 8 points adrift with by far the division’s worst goal difference, and they also happen to be bottom of the form table having taken a total of 0 points from their last 6 games, and have won only 3 times all season.

The teams they need to catch are more or less averaging a point per game (Carlisle are averaging 0.96 points if you want to split hairs) so if you work on that basis they’re going to need about 28 points from their remaining 18 games having picked up only 19 from their first 28. If you want a benchmark, we had 24 points at the same stage last season.

They’re not going to do it, are they? Defeat against Oldham on Saturday is surely the final nail in their EFL coffin.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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jamesgtfc
February 1, 2022, 9:56pm
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Quoted from Poojah
Dear oh dear. Barrow winning away at 5th placed Northampton tonight won’t have been a part of the Scunny recovery plan, and Colchester adding a point to their tally won’t have helped either.

They’re 8 points adrift with by far the division’s worst goal difference, and they also happen to be bottom of the form table having taken a total of 0 points from their last 6 games, and have won only 3 times all season.

The teams they need to catch are more or less averaging a point per game (Carlisle are averaging 0.96 points if you want to split hairs) so if you work on that basis they’re going to need about 28 points from their remaining 18 games having picked up only 19 from their first 28.

They’re not going to do it, are they? Defeat against Oldham on Saturday is surely the final nail in their EFL coffin.


By your calculations they need to win every other game. I firmly believe if there was another 5 games last season we would have stayed up and they would have gone down. As he's said it's all about breaking even now but with dwindling support and no success on the pitch, those sources of income decrease so the budget decreases and the support dwindles further etc, etc, etc.
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blundellpork
February 1, 2022, 11:09pm

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Quoted from jamesgtfc


By your calculations they need to win every other game. I firmly believe if there was another 5 games last season we would have stayed up and they would have gone down. As he's said it's all about breaking even now but with dwindling support and no success on the pitch, those sources of income decrease so the budget decreases and the support dwindles further etc, etc, etc.


Agree with you here. Cox scraped three wins in quick succession to pull them clear before sinking like a stone over the final ten games. Meanwhile Hurst took an age to get us going, but we were gradually clawing at them. Another 4-5 games and I think we would have caught them. No surprise at all that they are now in the mire this season.
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diehardmariner
February 2, 2022, 9:18am
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We buggered it up against Carlisle away.  Turned 3 points into 1 when we needed momentum going into the Colchester game.  With momentum I think we'd have beat Colchester and completely changed the dynamic of the relegation scrap.

But yeah ultimately we just left it too late to get going.  Hindsight's great.
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jamesgtfc
February 2, 2022, 9:35am
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Would Alex May turning up a few weeks earlier and bringing all the events forward a few weeks have changed anything? I'm not sure because although Hurst would have had a few more weeks with the likes of Danny Rose, Montel Gibson and Sisay, I I still think our January recruitment would have been the same and happened at a similar time.

I think the biggest thing to be annoyed about is the fact it looks like we could have spent another £200k on making a better fight of survival.
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chaos33
February 2, 2022, 9:42am
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Quoted from Poojah
Dear oh dear. Barrow winning away at 5th placed Northampton tonight won’t have been a part of the Scunny recovery plan, and Colchester adding a point to their tally won’t have helped either.

They’re 8 points adrift with by far the division’s worst goal difference, and they also happen to be bottom of the form table having taken a total of 0 points from their last 6 games, and have won only 3 times all season.

The teams they need to catch are more or less averaging a point per game (Carlisle are averaging 0.96 points if you want to split hairs) so if you work on that basis they’re going to need about 28 points from their remaining 18 games having picked up only 19 from their first 28. If you want a benchmark, we had 24 points at the same stage last season.

They’re not going to do it, are they? Defeat against Oldham on Saturday is surely the final nail in their EFL coffin.


I watched Oldham at Harrogate Town two weeks ago. Now, Harrogate are a very neat  and tidy team who play quick passing football and they beat them easily, 3-0, but Oldham were absolutely hopeless. I mean, really, really poor. Wouldn’t have scored if they’d played for a week. Way worse than our relegated team. Scunny will beat them if they are even a tiny bit better than them, but I would be utterly astonished if they aren’t both relegated. My guess would be 0-0 or 1-0 on Saturday.


"You should do what you love while you can"
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diehardmariner
February 2, 2022, 11:59am
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Quoted from jamesgtfc
Would Alex May turning up a few weeks earlier and bringing all the events forward a few weeks have changed anything? I'm not sure because although Hurst would have had a few more weeks with the likes of Danny Rose, Montel Gibson and Sisay, I I still think our January recruitment would have been the same and happened at a similar time.

I think the biggest thing to be annoyed about is the fact it looks like we could have spent another £200k on making a better fight of survival.


Yeah I was thinking the exact same thing, would it have brought things forward anymore...I really don't know.  In terms of a time-line, did 1878 get things over the line (which, let's face it resulted in Hurst coming back) for agreeing a deal with Fenty earlier because of the May situation or did it just fall into place around the same time?  

I think recruitment would have been the same but Hurst might have had extra time to get the organisation of the side sorted.  We became harder to beat from late Jan but were still losing games.  I mean it's pure conjecture, but if we were more organised would we have conceded that sucker punch against Stevenage, or even the week before would we have ground out a draw against Scunny (who weren't exactly great, we were just awful), same against Port Vale a few weeks before that.  Knock on from points picked up there might have been we went for it a bit earlier, I'm thinking the likes of Harrogate away when we failed to land a punch on them and just defended a 1-0 defeat.  Few points there would have chalked up on the tally but maybe given the confidence to get a win at Carlisle, Colchester at home.  I dunno....

Looking at the results again, we went mega defensive at Harrogate five days after beating Crawley, our first win in 2 months, regardless of the players we had at our disposal we should have gone more on the offensive.  Then again I think we just got better at the back once we stumbled upon Hewitt and Meyanese as a pairing, which I think was more brought on by injuries than anything else wasn't it?

All in, I look at the points dropped to Carlisle, Colchester and Salford as those where we could and should have taken maximum points.  That would have dragged both Scunny and Barrow into it more.  I think Scunny especially would have buckled at that point.  But losing 3-0 away at two relegation rivals, in the space of two weeks, in January gave us a massive mountain to climb.
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ginnywings
February 2, 2022, 12:45pm

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All it would have taken was a win at Scunny and they would have gone down instead of us.

You can look at it until you are blue in the face but not much point is there?
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arryarryarry
February 2, 2022, 1:06pm
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Quoted from diehardmariner


Yeah I was thinking the exact same thing, would it have brought things forward anymore...I really don't know.  In terms of a time-line, did 1878 get things over the line (which, let's face it resulted in Hurst coming back) for agreeing a deal with Fenty earlier because of the May situation or did it just fall into place around the same time?  

I think recruitment would have been the same but Hurst might have had extra time to get the organisation of the side sorted.  We became harder to beat from late Jan but were still losing games.  I mean it's pure conjecture, but if we were more organised would we have conceded that sucker punch against Stevenage, or even the week before would we have ground out a draw against Scunny (who weren't exactly great, we were just awful), same against Port Vale a few weeks before that.  Knock on from points picked up there might have been we went for it a bit earlier, I'm thinking the likes of Harrogate away when we failed to land a punch on them and just defended a 1-0 defeat.  Few points there would have chalked up on the tally but maybe given the confidence to get a win at Carlisle, Colchester at home.  I dunno....

Looking at the results again, we went mega defensive at Harrogate five days after beating Crawley, our first win in 2 months, regardless of the players we had at our disposal we should have gone more on the offensive.  Then again I think we just got better at the back once we stumbled upon Hewitt and Meyanese as a pairing, which I think was more brought on by injuries than anything else wasn't it?

All in, I look at the points dropped to Carlisle, Colchester and Salford as those where we could and should have taken maximum points.  That would have dragged both Scunny and Barrow into it more.  I think Scunny especially would have buckled at that point.  But losing 3-0 away at two relegation rivals, in the space of two weeks, in January gave us a massive mountain to climb.


Most of what you say was down to poor decisions by Paul Hurst, firstly signing some players who were no where near match fit with only half  season to save ourselves, then excrement tactics like Harrogate away one of the worst performances from a Town side for many seasons, in fact I started a Hurst Out thread right after that game saying he would take us down.

He also lost us the two points at Carlisle by going defensive when we were cruising to 3 points by bringing on Waterfall.

We can all bleat on about if we had won here or drawn there, the simple facts are that John Fenty, Ian Holloway and Paul Hurst are all responsible for us being out of the Football League.
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Son of Cod
February 2, 2022, 1:32pm
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Quoted from arryarryarry


Most of what you say was down to poor decisions by Paul Hurst, firstly signing some players who were no where near match fit with only half  season to save ourselves, then excrement tactics like Harrogate away one of the worst performances from a Town side for many seasons, in fact I started a Hurst Out thread right after that game saying he would take us down.

He also lost us the two points at Carlisle by going defensive when we were cruising to 3 points by bringing on Waterfall.

We can all bleat on about if we had won here or drawn there, the simple facts are that John Fenty, Ian Holloway and Paul Hurst are all responsible for us being out of the Football League.

Hurst out thread less than 2 months after he's appointed. That's good going even for a Town fan.

We were absolutely robbed at Carlisle too, there was a perfectly fine goal disallowed. Waterfall came on in the 90th minute too, I think 95% of professional football managers are making that change to protect the lead, let's not dress this up like Parslow v2.0.
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