Chances created

Not sure what they deem a “chance” exactly, but this is from “the fifth division” on Twitter

Most chances created - National League 2021/22

136 - Dag & Red
121 - Stockport
119 - Grimsby
110 - Wrexham
110 - Bromley
110 - Altrincham
110 - Woking
109 - Notts County

Impressive but what do the chances vs goals scored look like?

they missed out the r

Quoted from Southwark Mariner

they missed out the r

We have to be top of the fúcking world of chancers created, don’t we!?

Goes to show where we’d be if we had that striker

No Chesterfield or Halifax in that list.

Their chances to converted goals ratio is why they are 1 and 2 in this league - they have established strikers regularly scoring with efficiency.

They also both have mean defences , so 1-0 wins bring the same 3 points as huge score victories !!

It just shows that we need to find the next Amond or Connell from somewhere, or loan in a younger rough diamond, hoping for that player to click immediately.

We certainly won't be shelling out £250,000 and breaking a salary cap within the club.

Quoted from Theimperialcoroner

Goes to show where we’d be if we had that striker

It’s not as simple as that though, do we create those chances because we don’t have a striker? Is it from Clifton or fox coming from midfield or the wingers creating opportunities? Or are the changes from McAtee creating something for himself? We also create a fair few ‘chances’ for the defenders from set pieces. We’d still do that with or without a n n n n n n nine.

I’m not saying that we don’t need a striker, we evidently do but I don’t think it’s as simple as we’d score loads of the chances created with one. It relies on that striker being in the right place to score that chance or that chance even coming to that striker.

Quoted from darren9

It’s not as simple as that though, do we create those chances because we don’t have a striker? Is it from Clifton or fox coming from midfield or the wingers creating opportunities? Or are the changes from McAtee creating something for himself? We also create a fair few ‘chances’ for the defenders from set pieces. We’d still do that with or without a n n n n n n nine.

I’m not saying that we don’t need a striker, we evidently do but I don’t think it’s as simple as we’d score loads of the chances created with one. It relies on that striker being in the right place to score that chance or that chance even coming to that striker.

Fair points but the reality of the situation is we don't have someone who regularly puts away their chances, which this stat clearly shows. Would we be better off with a player who had a higher conversion rate than our existing players even if that meant we create less chances overall?  

I'd say the answer is a highly likely yes we would be higher than ninth in the league as we've lost most of our games by very small one goal margins.

While I don't dispute that the squad need an extra striker to give Taylor a breather, would we risk changing the shape or dropping Taylor to accommodate them in our first choice line up?

Going two up top with Taylor + AN Other makes it difficult to accommodate McAtee in his most effective position, replacing Taylor with AN Other you probably trade Taylor's remarkable ability to control and lay off the ball.for a bit more mobility and he's not a shabby finisher either.

I think if we had a bit more quality and athleticism at left back/wing-back, you could potentially move to a 5-3-2, with three centre halves, attacking wing-backs, two in the middle with McAtee just behind a front two of Taylor and A.N.Other.


Crocombe

Longe-King     Waterfall     Pearson

Efete              Left wing-back

Clifton     Fox

McAtee

Taylor    No.9



But that’s obviously complete fantasy at the minute. You’re then needing two high-quality signings at LB and up top, you lose a lot of the attacking threat we have in Sousa and JMD as well as all the width in the attacking third. Unless, of course, you’ve got a mobile no.9 who can pull into wide positions leaving Taylor in the middle, but then what’s the point in having a goal scorer if he’s going to spend all his time outside the box?

Who’d be a football manager eh? Not me.

The reason why we are not higher in the league is because we did not sign a striker pre season.
The one important position where you need keen competition is up front where taking chances keeps you in the team.
To make anything of this season we must act in this window to expedite a finisher

Quoted from bedders78

While I don't dispute that the squad need an extra striker to give Taylor a breather, would we risk changing the shape or dropping Taylor to accommodate them in our first choice line up?

Going two up top with Taylor + AN Other makes it difficult to accommodate McAtee in his most effective position, replacing Taylor with AN Other you probably trade Taylor's remarkable ability to control and lay off the ball.for a bit more mobility and he's not a shabby finisher either.

This is where I am on the debate. Who do you drop from our front 4 to make way for this number 9?

Quoted from darren9

It’s not as simple as that though, do we create those chances because we don’t have a striker? Is it from Clifton or fox coming from midfield or the wingers creating opportunities? Or are the changes from McAtee creating something for himself? We also create a fair few ‘chances’ for the defenders from set pieces. We’d still do that with or without a n n n n n n nine.

I’m not saying that we don’t need a striker, we evidently do but I don’t think it’s as simple as we’d score loads of the chances created with one. It relies on that striker being in the right place to score that chance or that chance even coming to that striker.

Course it’s not, but the difference between us and certainly Chesterfield and Notts was that they had someone there to take their chances when we didn’t. Tishminga did intercourse all for most of the game but they went away with the points because he was there.
I say all this thinking Hurst was correct over not signing him, but I do think there needs to be a little more balance between such caution and signing the best you can possibly get.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

This is where I am on the debate. Who do you drop from our front 4 to make way for this number 9?

I made the same point after Saturday’s game. Taylor is an excellent technician and links up play really well however, I believe his weakness is that he doesn’t get on the end of enough crosses but has shown on occasions that he knows where the net is when he does, Barnet, Wrexham and Southend. Thus as others have said that leads you to think we need another striker to play with him but how does this change McAtee’s role or do we lose some width? If we lose width we may reduce the number of crosses into the box and having two front players down the middle may mean we lose some of the slick interplay that has been on show at BP.

As Ska said earlier it’s a real dilemma for the Manager given that most of us share the opinion that a “proper striker” is required.

It's not that cut and dried to my mind.

Quality of chances is as important as it just being a chance. What is the criteria? If you are put clean through, one on one with the keeper, or a cross is put right on your foot 6 yards out in the middle of the goal, you are more likely to convert it.

As ska pointed out, It's just as important that we have decent overlapping full backs who can deliver a dangerous cross or score the odd goal themselves as it is to have an out and out goal scorer. That's why I have high hopes for Amos who looked to be able to contribute going forward more readily than Crookes.

I think Taylor has looked more than a decent finisher and has converted a couple of crosses into goals that were very difficult chances. He also brings a lot to the game in the build up pay. His holding up and lay offs are top notch, so it may be that a more attacking midfielder coming from deep and timing his runs will yield more reward. Perhaps Burgess will fill that role.

Then there is the defence. The top three have all got much more miserly goals against than we have, but the next 6 teams, including us, all have about the same slightly higher rate. It all adds up to getting those three points.

It's not simply about having a more lethal striker, although we clearly need one and I expect we will see one in before the end of the month. Then he will have to be accommodated into the team, which will mean a change of shape or dropping someone.

Quoted from Swansea_Mariner

Fair points but the reality of the situation is we don't have someone who regularly puts away their chances, which this stat clearly shows. Would we be better off with a player who had a higher conversion rate than our existing players even if that meant we create less chances overall?  

I'd say the answer is a highly likely yes we would be higher than ninth in the league as we've lost most of our games by very small one goal margins.

I'd argue the point on 'stats clearly show', because they don't. It's a basic number with no breakdown. How many of those chances are headers won on corners? What are the stats on most corners to quantify the rate of corners to chances? How many are direct free kicks at goal? How many direct free kicks have we been awarded? How many are strikes from outside the box taken by midfielders?

The stat which would truly show the exact need of a striker who can convert is how many chances were created in open play inside the box and missed. You could have Michael Owen in his prime but if the ball isn't getting where he needs it then he's just as useless as I would be.

I haven't seen every game this season but I don't recall Taylor having many chances for himself in what I have seen and if there are stats available for his conversion then I'd guess it wouldn't be horrific. Much as I like Sousa's drive and how he can get us forward I'd argue a lot falls down once he gets to the crucial point of finding a man or shooting when in and around the box.

No arguments from me that a striker is required to offer different options and lessen the burden on Taylor a bit but if our chances are stacked up predominantly in corners, free kicks and shots outside the area then it doesn't automatically stack up that new striker = chances converted.

Clean sheets - saves a lot of heartache if the defence is mean and solid.

Bear in mind that Taylor's effort in the first half on Saturday would have been classified as a 'chance'. However, it was one where a keeper coming off his line would be able to smother the effort most of the time so it wasn't really as clear-cut as you might think. It is small margins, though - if Taylor could have reached the ball a foot further out, the dynamics of the situation would have changed in his favour so it is very subjective.

Similarly, Fox's header. I personally think the cross was just a tiny bit high, but also Fox didn't anticipate it quite well enough. Certainly a chance, but a good one? Not so sure too many players would have scored that one - perhaps that elusive No. 9 we're looking for might have got there.

Just goes to show how completely arbitrary somebody listing the number 'chances created' might well be. I'd say we've missed some good ones in our recent poor run, but we've not exactly peppered the goal in most of the games we've lost. We've created enough to get something out of the game but haven't on too many occasions.

A lot of strikers create their own chances

Quoted from golfer

A lot of strikers create their own chances

Yeah, but we release those ones…

https://youtu.be/Mhs-yiyPyDg

Quoted from ska face

I think if we had a bit more quality and athleticism at left back/wing-back, you could potentially move to a 5-3-2, with three centre halves, attacking wing-backs, two in the middle with McAtee just behind a front two of Taylor and A.N.Other.


Crocombe

Longe-King     Waterfall     Pearson

Efete              Left wing-back

Clifton     Fox

McAtee

Taylor    No.9



But that’s obviously complete fantasy at the minute. You’re then needing two high-quality signings at LB and up top, you lose a lot of the attacking threat we have in Sousa and JMD as well as all the width in the attacking third. Unless, of course, you’ve got a mobile no.9 who can pull into wide positions leaving Taylor in the middle, but then what’s the point in having a goal scorer if he’s going to spend all his time outside the box?

Who’d be a football manager eh? Not me.

That may explain the signing of Amos and Smith and the possible signing of Hickman. PH did intimate in an interview that he was possibly looking to go in a different direction.

Three at the back with Smith as the one who can carry the ball out defence and sweep up around the back as he did on Saturday when Pearson slipped. Amos left wing back and Efete or a new signing as right wing back.

Don't know where Sousa, JMD and Wright fit into that scenario though, so maybe It's a non starter.

Effete provides zero width so it's a non starter with him. He doesn't cross from deep, he doesn't beat a man to get to the bye line, he does on occasion push forward and come inside. In this scenario the one thing he offers going forward would be negated by a crowded central area anyway.

This may be a controversial decision but I think if Efete and Clifton came into the team from last week, we will start scoring regular goals.

Crocombe
Efete, Waterfall, Pearson, Amos
JMD, Clifton, Fox, Sousa/ Wright
McAtee Taylor

The issue is that we don't have sufficient quality to cover for this 11, particularly upfront.

I think Wright creates more real chances than Sousa but there is something to be said for Sousa terrorising defences for 60 mins and then Max comes on to deliver the killer ball.

Quoted from toontown

Effete provides zero width so it's a non starter with him. He doesn't cross from deep, he doesn't beat a man to get to the bye line, he does on occasion push forward and come inside. In this scenario the one thing he offers going forward would be negated by a crowded central area anyway.

you must have watched different games from me

Sousa may not produce as many crosses, or good crosses, as Wright but he does create chances for others with his forward runs.  

He also won the corner from which McAtee scored with that spectacular volley.

At Halifax they put 2 players on him to nullify him.  This should have created space for our other players.

I'm an advocate of playing wingers who are a handful, even if they don't produce quite as much of a threat as they should. If he's playing well, Sousa's running and pace will cause problems and it helps tire the opposition defence out, allowing Wright to come on and have a bigger impact.

At least, that's the hope! Some players always seem to do better coming off the bench and it may be that Wright is destined to be one of those types.

Quoted from toontown

Effete provides zero width so it's a non starter with him. He doesn't cross from deep, he doesn't beat a man to get to the bye line, he does on occasion push forward and come inside. In this scenario the one thing he offers going forward would be negated by a crowded central area anyway.

i think Efete's been a good signing for us, been impressed with him when he's played

I think Efete looks a decent player but I think he has more to offer than he has shown. He's done well bursting through into attack on occasion, but doesn't do it often enough for me, something which I think Hurst has alluded to in interviews in the past. I don't think it is necessarily a fitness thing as he doesn't seem to be blowing most of the time. More a change of mindset required.

With JMD looking he will become a fixture on the right wing, we'll need to see Efete get forward and overlap more often he has been doing, once he's back to fitness.

Quoted from Maringer

I think Efete looks a decent player but I think he has more to offer than he has shown. He's done well bursting through into attack on occasion, but doesn't do it often enough for me, something which I think Hurst has alluded to in interviews in the past. I don't think it is necessarily a fitness thing as he doesn't seem to be blowing most of the time. More a change of mindset required.

With JMD looking he will become a fixture on the right wing, we'll need to see Efete get forward and overlap more often he has been doing, once he's back to fitness.

Agreed its not a fitness issue, he's got great stamina for a pretty big guy. But if your a wingback as opposed to a full back you have to be able to provide attacking width as your the only one that can, so either crosses coming in from wide or beating a man and crossing in. Efete is not inclined to do either.

He will get the ball drive forward and then a bit past the halfway line he stops and either passes it down the line and leaves it to sousa (he doesn't overlap much), or passes it square to a CM or on occasion drive inwards diagonally into the middle. This isn't play that would lend itself well to a wingback as there isn't a winger to pass forward to and the whole point is he doesn't go inside but offers width. He has had one game at home, can't remember who it was against, when he did drive forward in a wide position,was easily his best game for town but then it disappeared again. Even then tho it was more in the middle third than the final. Might be a confidence thing.

Quoted from TownSNAFU5

Sousa may not produce as many crosses, or good crosses, as Wright but he does create chances for others with his forward runs.  

He also won the corner from which McAtee scored with that spectacular volley.

At Halifax they put 2 players on him to nullify him.  This should have created space for our other players.

Sousa does create lots of space for other players but he doesn't use it and prefers to go it alone. If he learnt to pass at the crucial moment he would produce loads of assists.