Extrapolation

Quoted Text

extrapolation
/ɪkstrapəˈleɪʃ(ə)n/

noun
the action of estimating or concluding something by assuming that existing trends will continue or a current method will remain applicable.
"sizes were estimated by extrapolation"

MATHEMATICS
the extension of a graph, curve, or range of values by inferring unknown values from trends in the known data.
"extrapolation of the logarithmic curve yielded an estimate of 66 species"

As we are now six games into the season I thought it would be a good time to look at our form and infer from that our projected points total:

16 points gained / 6 games played = 2.66 points per game

44 total games * 2.66 = 117.04 projected points

Let's be conservative and round it down to 117 points at the end of the season. Will this be enough for promotion?

Quoted from pizzzza

As we are now six games into the season I thought it would be a good time to look at our form and infer from that our projected points total:

16 points gained /  6 games played = 2.66 points per game

44 total games * 2.66 = 117.04 projected points

Let's be conservative and round it down to 117 points at the end of the season. Will this be enough for promotion?

Should get us a play-off spot anyway

117 points would be enough to get us promoted and still have enough left over to have more points than Scunny will get this season.

Superstitious Mariner cringing in corner here.

Quoted from KingstonMariner

Superstitious Mariner cringing in corner here.

Enjoy the moment. We have had so few.

I go by the current form, of which we are top! Let it continue!

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/national-league/form-guide

Quoted from exiledmeggie

I go by the current form, of which we are top! Let it continue!

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/national-league/form-guide

No thanks to your pal

Promotion calculator has us going up as Champions https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php

It’s very, very early days and I think everyone knows that, but our record so far is very strong. On a ‘per game’ basis we lead the way in terms of points, goal difference and goals conceded. Only Dagenham have scored more goals per game than us, but their goals against record is much poorer than ours.

84% of the season still to play, so all these stats are to be taken with a pinch of salt, but when you consider that in our six games we’ve already played the bookies’ two outright favourites for the season along with last year’s play-off finalists I think you can at least go as far to suggest that it bodes well.

I remember the 14/15 season when the standard was really high and Bristol Rovers only lost something like four games all season. They still didn't finish top and beat us in the play-off final (as if any of us could forget).

When you've been scrapping around at the bottom for so long, the sheer relentlessness of winning that's required to achieve success at this level seems quite daunting, almost intimidating.

But we've had a tremendous start. It's the kind of start that makes the players believe promotion is definitely possible. Self-belief will be sky-high and as long as we keep up with the positive support, and don't start moaning when we fail to break down a park-the-bus team, we'll be in with a great shout of promotion by May.

I reckon it’ll need more than 90 points to take the title this season

I was worried when we got relegated as I thought the standard in the league was higher than when we were previously down here - however, I think it’s looked similar if not worse so far.

Of course, a large part of that could simply be how well we’ve played. It’s too early to say yet, but this team looks better than the one that won the play offs. The weymouth game is exactly the type we’d have drawn last time down here and there’s no way we’d have recovered against Torquay. Got to keep it up for a season but so far, so good.

Quoted from grimps

I reckon it’ll need more than 90 points to take the title this season

Points won by National League Champions recently...

2010/11 105
2011/12 103
2012/13 95
2013/14 101
2014/15 92
2015/16 101
2016/17 99
2017/18 92
2018/19 89
2019/20 70 * season ended after 37 games due to Covid
2020/21 84

So, it's only the last 2 full campaigns where 90 points would have won the title and obviously there were 2 games less last season, as there will be this.

Quoted from Les Brechin

Points won by National League Champions recently...

2010/11 105
2011/12 103
2012/13 95
2013/14 101
2014/15 92
2015/16 101
2016/17 99
2017/18 92
2018/19 89
2019/20 70 * season ended after 37 games due to Covid
2020/21 84

So, it's only the last 2 full campaigns where 90 points would have won the title and obviously there were 2 games less last season, as there will be this.

Surely it’s more relevant to know how many points the second placed team got? You only need one more point (or a better goal difference) than that. 80 points would have been enough for Sutton last season (assuming no changes to GD).

Crawley won it with a record 105 points in 2011, but 90 would have been enough. Amazingly they only took a point off a Town side that included the likes of Lee Ridley, Serge Makofo and Steven Watt that season.

Quoted from Poojah

Surely it’s more relevant to know how many points the second placed team got? You only need one more point (or a better goal difference) than that. 80 points would have been enough for Sutton last season (assuming no changes to GD).

Crawley won it with a record 105 points in 2011, but 90 would have been enough. Amazingly they only took a point off a Town side that included the likes of Lee Ridley, Serge Makofo and Steven Watt that season.

2nd place teams

2010/11 90
2011/12 98
2012/13 93
2013/14 82
2014/15 91
2015/16 89
2016/17 95
2017/18 82
2018/19 86
2019/20 66 * season cut short
2020/21 80

Quoted from Les Brechin

Points won by National League Champions recently...

2010/11 105 2.3
2011/12 103 2.2
2012/13 95 2.1
2013/14 101 2.2
2014/15 92 2.0
2015/16 101 2.2
2016/17 99 2.2
2017/18 92 2.0
2018/19 89 1.9
2019/20 70 * season ended after 37 games due to Covid 1.9
2020/21 84 2.0

So, it's only the last 2 full campaigns where 90 points would have won the title and obviously there were 2 games less last season, as there will be this.

Have added the average PPG for those seasons. In fact I went back 20 years but I can’t do tables on here properly.

Average PPG for the last 20 seasons was 2.1. Highest average was 2.3 for Stevenage and Yeovil. Lowest was 1.9 for Orient and Burton. No real trend other than fluctuating around 2.1.

2.3 PPG would be 101 points this season. We’re currently on 2.67.

You do realise that this thread has now probably wrecked our season! You know what happens when we get all excited - everything comes crumbling down around our ears.

can we delete this thread please, and perhaps bring it back, if needed, in late April?

Christ on a bike, 105 points!

You've earned it if you win this league.

Quoted from Les Brechin

2nd place teams

2010/11 90
2011/12 98
2012/13 93
2013/14 82
2014/15 91
2015/16 89
2016/17 95
2017/18 82
2018/19 86
2019/20 66 * season cut short
2020/21 80

Around 89 is the average for a full, 46 game season, revised down to 86 to account for two fewer games. You have to feel for Wrexham who failed with 98 points and are still here 10 years later.

If you can hit 2 points per game you have a very good chance, win two, lose one. Piece of pìss, right?

I started to think about this on Saturday walking home and a quick bit of mental arithmetic made me realise that at the current rate, we would be well north of 100 points, so I had a word with myself to stop getting carried away.

One thing is for sure; you can't afford to lose more than about 6 to 8 games if you want to win the league. So that's one loss roughly every 7 ish games give or take. Need to be winning around the 28 game mark, drawing as many as poss and losing hardly ever. Tough ask, though there are plenty of contenders for the top spot this season and it may come down to who does best against the other teams in and around the top end.

We now have 4 away games out of the next 5 and 5 out of the next 7. After those 7, we have Notts County at home. Should have a bit better idea by the end of Oct.

Quoted from ginnywings

I started to think about this on Saturday walking home and a quick bit of mental arithmetic made me realise that at the current rate, we would be well north of 100 points, so I had a word with myself to stop getting carried away.

One thing is for sure; you can't afford to lose more than about 6 to 8 games if you want to win the league. So that's one loss roughly every 7 ish games give or take. Need to be winning around the 28 game mark, drawing as many as poss and losing hardly ever. Tough ask, though there are plenty of contenders for the top spot this season and it may come down to who does best against the other teams in and around the top end.

We now have 4 away games out of the next 5 and 5 out of the next 7. After those 7, we have Notts County at home. Should have a bit better idea by the end of Oct.

There are so many permutations to play out over the course of the season - injuries to key players at any of the clubs pushing for promotion could be enough to see some drop out of the race. One thing I do like about this team though is that we don't appear to be overly reliant on individual players. Not only does that make us more difficult to plan against, it also leaves you less vulnerable to those kind of problems. I would accept that we looked a lesser team without McAtee on Saturday, and he would appear to be our talisman, but I'd say we're probably less reliant on him than say Chesterfield are on Tshimanga, who's scored half their goals so far this season.

One thing I do expect though is Wrexham to finish strong. I can see the shape of their season being similar to that of Fulham's in 97/98. They spent a fair bit in the summer shortly after Al Fayed took over, roughly £700k, though incidentally that's less than we did having recently sold Oster and Mendonca. From October onwards though their spending went pretty nuts by Second Division standards in the late nineties - spending a further £7m on another 13 players including the likes of Paul Peschisolido (that ended well), Maik Taylor and Chris Coleman (who was believed to be on around £20k a week at the time).

I thought Wrexham looked some way off the pace of the likes of Crawley and Fleetwood who've spent big and won the league comfortably in the past, and didn't look a particularly great 'team' in general, certainly not compared to the unity we appear to have in the town ranks right now. But I can see them spending silly money after Christmas if things aren't going quite to plan, and I don't think they'll be shy in moving on Phil Parkinson either (just as Fulham weren't in ousting Micky Adams and subsequently the late Ray Wilkins).

If we have aspirations of winning the league, I think one key milestone to look out for is not only being in the mix come Christmas, but also having sufficient daylight between ourselves and them.

Quoted from Poojah

It’s very, very early days and I think everyone knows that, but our record so far is very strong. On a ‘per game’ basis we lead the way in terms of points, goal difference and goals conceded. Only[/b] Dagenham[b] have scored more goals per game than us, but their goals against record is much poorer than ours.

84% of the season still to play, so all these stats are to be taken with a pinch of salt, but when you consider that in our six games we’ve already played the bookies’ two outright favourites for the season along with last year’s play-off finalists I think you can at least go as far to suggest that it bodes well.

We both have +8 goal difference, the fact they have scored more goals,this is why they are 2nd.

Were Sutton and Hartlepool the bookies favourites last season? Torquay were never going to the force they were last season.

Like you said its too early, wait until January, we will have a clear picture of whom are going to be in the mix, come the end of the season.

Take one game at a time and enjoy the moment.

Quoted from Poojah

There are so many permutations to play out over the course of the season - injuries to key players at any of the clubs pushing for promotion could be enough to see some drop out of the race. One thing I do like about this team though is that we don't appear to be overly reliant on individual players. Not only does that make us more difficult to plan against, it also leaves you less vulnerable to those kind of problems. I would accept that we looked a lesser team without McAtee on Saturday, and he would appear to be our talisman, but I'd say we're probably less reliant on him than say Chesterfield are on Tshimanga, who's scored half their goals so far this season.

One thing I do expect though is Wrexham to finish strong. I can see the shape of their season being similar to that of Fulham's in 97/98. They spent a fair bit in the summer shortly after Al Fayed took over, roughly £700k, though incidentally that's less than we did having recently sold Oster and Mendonca. From October onwards though their spending went pretty nuts by Second Division standards in the late nineties - spending a further £7m on another 13 players including the likes of Paul Peschisolido (that ended well), Maik Taylor and Chris Coleman (who was believed to be on around £20k a week at the time).

I thought Wrexham looked some way off the pace of the likes of Crawley and Fleetwood who've spent big and won the league comfortably in the past, and didn't look a particularly great 'team' in general, certainly not compared to the unity we appear to have in the town ranks right now. But I can see them spending silly money after Christmas if things aren't going quite to plan, and I don't think they'll be shy in moving on Phil Parkinson either (just as Fulham weren't in ousting Micky Adams and subsequently the late Ray Wilkins).

If we have aspirations of winning the league, I think one key milestone to look out for is not only being in the mix come Christmas, but also having sufficient daylight between ourselves and them.

It was noticeable that the intensity went up a level when he came onto the pitch Saturday. I think without him, the job will be tougher and we would have to grind out results a bit more but it's early days, plenty of time for others to prove their worth as a player that makes us tick.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

It was noticeable that the intensity went up a level when he came onto the pitch Saturday. I think without him, the job will be tougher and we would have to grind out results a bit more but it's early days, plenty of time for others to prove their worth as a player that makes us tick.

The atmosphere went up a notch too, it was very noticeable. I can't actually think of many times when a player coming off the bench has lifted the place in such a tangible way. Reddy coming on against Lincoln in the play-offs is the only one I can really think of, but it's rare you get that kind of reaction not only from the fans but from the players too.

Someone the other day compared him to Cantona, which is quite a comparison to make as he was such a unique player, but there's definitely something of an aura about the guy. It's not really something I was expecting from him either.

Quoted from Poojah

The atmosphere went up a notch too, it was very noticeable. I can't actually think of many times when a player coming off the bench has lifted the place in such a tangible way. Reddy coming on against Lincoln in the play-offs is the only one I can really think of, but it's rare you get that kind of reaction not only from the fans but from the players too.

Someone the other day compared him to Cantona, which is quite a comparison to make as he was such a unique player, but there's definitely something of an aura about the guy. It's not really something I was expecting from him either.

I've heard someone call him the "Grimsby Grealish".

Same sort of effect as he had with the Villa team.

Bit overboard if you ask me but I get where he was coming from.

Wrexham will improve but perhaps we should give ourselves more credit, I didn’t think Wrexham looked up to much but perhaps we made them look a bit excrement too…

The key with a PH side is that nobody is seemingly more important than anyone else. Of course Podge was the stand out with Bogle because of the goals but they were doing their job, supported by a good midfield. This time around, goals are being shared out around the park, or so it seems and once again, every single person knows their role, subs included. Mcatee will be the fan’s favourite but so far it’s hard to really pick fault either any of them.

It’ll be interesting who is in the mix at Christmas, we were twice and never sustained it. Perhaps we’ll have learnt this time? Wrexham will no doubt spend in January, as will Stockport I’d imagine but that’s not always helpful…it can cause more disruption. Consistency is key.

I don’t want us to lose either but a defeat would possibly highlight some key areas for development and present the challenge of proving how resilient we are.

Everything is very positive at the moment but I can't help thinking some of the stuff on this thread is a trifle premature. And I have a certain expertise in that area!

To add some more positivity about us - we are doing this without the number 9 we were crying out for in the summer so there's still space in the squad for that player to come in in January and strengthen our push.

I agree with others above that you can't ignore Wrexham and the other 'big' teams who have started sluggishly (Stockport) but over the season as a whole you need to beat your rivals at home and avoid losing away. If we get to Christmas and have taken points off the 'big' teams there's a touch less pressure in the second half of the season.

And our run in is a gift! Our last 5 or so games are against teams who look like bottom half of the table will be a good outcome for them.

Another bit of positive news tonight - solihull could only draw at  Dover.a win wouldve took them to within a point of us
Cant believe I'm looking at other clubs results in September 🤣🤣

It’s just nice to feel surprised if we lose rather than being surprised if we win.

Enjoy the good times while we can, but expect a banana skin sometime in the future. Many slated the players after the preseason game at Chesterfield, but wow haven't they all done well.

The money spenders buy names and hope they do well. What we have are players who are gelling into a good team with good team spirit. They are working for each other, without the greed factor which big names have as they have to prove their worth.

Wrexham, Stockport, etc. may spend big again but Sutton didn't, nor did Harrogate the year before. Then we have our star man for home games, the 12th man. The FANS are back big time and the players know it and want to perform and win for us.

I'm always optimistic and positive and of course, we're going up preferably as champions.

UTM

Less games (Teams) this season so 90 should be enough.

Players aside, for what it's worth.. I think we have the best Manager in the league  (i'd argue one of the best in League 2 aswell, i'll take the red crosses)  and that can't be underestimated.

Wrexham have spent a fortune but they still have Phil Parkinson as Manager..

Quoted from Poojah

The atmosphere went up a notch too, it was very noticeable. I can't actually think of many times when a player coming off the bench has lifted the place in such a tangible way. Reddy coming on against Lincoln in the play-offs is the only one I can really think of, but it's rare you get that kind of reaction not only from the fans but from the players too.

Last one I can remember was Jamie Devitt for his second appearance when he was on loan here in 2013.  

Genuine buzz around the ground as he warmed up and started to get ready to come on.  Burst onto the pitch with a bundle of energy, picked up a loose ball about 30 yards out and pulled his trusty left peg back as the crowd held a collective breath....as high as it was wide, which was very wide.

Ah well.

Quoted from diehardmariner

Last one I can remember was Jamie Devitt for his second appearance when he was on loan here in 2013.  

Genuine buzz around the ground as he warmed up and started to get ready to come on.  Burst onto the pitch with a bundle of energy, picked up a loose ball about 30 yards out and pulled his trusty left peg back as the crowd held a collective breath....as high as it was wide, which was very wide.

Ah well.

He wasn't anything like the player we had 3 years earlier.

Quoted from diehardmariner

Last one I can remember was Jamie Devitt for his second appearance when he was on loan here in 2013.  

Genuine buzz around the ground as he warmed up and started to get ready to come on.  Burst onto the pitch with a bundle of energy, picked up a loose ball about 30 yards out and pulled his trusty left peg back as the crowd held a collective breath....as high as it was wide, which was very wide.

Ah well.

Yep, I do remember that. Against Hereford just after New Year I seem to recall.

He was indeed not the same player on his return and he never really lived up to the hype, although he was returning from a lengthy injury and I seem to remember that it turned out he had glandular fever for much of his time here.

Regardless, based on his first spell I fully expected him to make it at least a level or two higher than League Two, which has sadly never happened for the lad.