Extrapolation

I reckon it’ll need more than 90 points to take the title this season

I was worried when we got relegated as I thought the standard in the league was higher than when we were previously down here - however, I think it’s looked similar if not worse so far.

Of course, a large part of that could simply be how well we’ve played. It’s too early to say yet, but this team looks better than the one that won the play offs. The weymouth game is exactly the type we’d have drawn last time down here and there’s no way we’d have recovered against Torquay. Got to keep it up for a season but so far, so good.

Quoted from grimps

I reckon it’ll need more than 90 points to take the title this season

Points won by National League Champions recently...

2010/11 105
2011/12 103
2012/13 95
2013/14 101
2014/15 92
2015/16 101
2016/17 99
2017/18 92
2018/19 89
2019/20 70 * season ended after 37 games due to Covid
2020/21 84

So, it's only the last 2 full campaigns where 90 points would have won the title and obviously there were 2 games less last season, as there will be this.

Quoted from Les Brechin

Points won by National League Champions recently...

2010/11 105
2011/12 103
2012/13 95
2013/14 101
2014/15 92
2015/16 101
2016/17 99
2017/18 92
2018/19 89
2019/20 70 * season ended after 37 games due to Covid
2020/21 84

So, it's only the last 2 full campaigns where 90 points would have won the title and obviously there were 2 games less last season, as there will be this.

Surely it’s more relevant to know how many points the second placed team got? You only need one more point (or a better goal difference) than that. 80 points would have been enough for Sutton last season (assuming no changes to GD).

Crawley won it with a record 105 points in 2011, but 90 would have been enough. Amazingly they only took a point off a Town side that included the likes of Lee Ridley, Serge Makofo and Steven Watt that season.

Quoted from Poojah

Surely it’s more relevant to know how many points the second placed team got? You only need one more point (or a better goal difference) than that. 80 points would have been enough for Sutton last season (assuming no changes to GD).

Crawley won it with a record 105 points in 2011, but 90 would have been enough. Amazingly they only took a point off a Town side that included the likes of Lee Ridley, Serge Makofo and Steven Watt that season.

2nd place teams

2010/11 90
2011/12 98
2012/13 93
2013/14 82
2014/15 91
2015/16 89
2016/17 95
2017/18 82
2018/19 86
2019/20 66 * season cut short
2020/21 80

Quoted from Les Brechin

Points won by National League Champions recently...

2010/11 105 2.3
2011/12 103 2.2
2012/13 95 2.1
2013/14 101 2.2
2014/15 92 2.0
2015/16 101 2.2
2016/17 99 2.2
2017/18 92 2.0
2018/19 89 1.9
2019/20 70 * season ended after 37 games due to Covid 1.9
2020/21 84 2.0

So, it's only the last 2 full campaigns where 90 points would have won the title and obviously there were 2 games less last season, as there will be this.

Have added the average PPG for those seasons. In fact I went back 20 years but I can’t do tables on here properly.

Average PPG for the last 20 seasons was 2.1. Highest average was 2.3 for Stevenage and Yeovil. Lowest was 1.9 for Orient and Burton. No real trend other than fluctuating around 2.1.

2.3 PPG would be 101 points this season. We’re currently on 2.67.

You do realise that this thread has now probably wrecked our season! You know what happens when we get all excited - everything comes crumbling down around our ears.

can we delete this thread please, and perhaps bring it back, if needed, in late April?

Christ on a bike, 105 points!

You've earned it if you win this league.

Quoted from Les Brechin

2nd place teams

2010/11 90
2011/12 98
2012/13 93
2013/14 82
2014/15 91
2015/16 89
2016/17 95
2017/18 82
2018/19 86
2019/20 66 * season cut short
2020/21 80

Around 89 is the average for a full, 46 game season, revised down to 86 to account for two fewer games. You have to feel for Wrexham who failed with 98 points and are still here 10 years later.

If you can hit 2 points per game you have a very good chance, win two, lose one. Piece of pìss, right?

I started to think about this on Saturday walking home and a quick bit of mental arithmetic made me realise that at the current rate, we would be well north of 100 points, so I had a word with myself to stop getting carried away.

One thing is for sure; you can't afford to lose more than about 6 to 8 games if you want to win the league. So that's one loss roughly every 7 ish games give or take. Need to be winning around the 28 game mark, drawing as many as poss and losing hardly ever. Tough ask, though there are plenty of contenders for the top spot this season and it may come down to who does best against the other teams in and around the top end.

We now have 4 away games out of the next 5 and 5 out of the next 7. After those 7, we have Notts County at home. Should have a bit better idea by the end of Oct.