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Fans Returning/Cases Rising

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pontoonlew
September 11, 2020, 1:55pm
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Quoted from ska face


So is that...what, one or more dead people so you can watch lower league football once a fortnight? Couldn’t quite make it out from your post. 500 more maybe? 1000 fathers and mothers?

It’s all well and good talking about low mortality rates, but the issue is the fact that those who require hospital treatment require fairly intensive treatment and resources - beds, ventilators, monitoring etc - which we don’t have the capacity for. This is why whole hospitals and entire wards had to be cleared of sick people, and other illnesses like cancer treatment were put on the back burner. “Protect The NHS” and all that - the measures in place are to stop the total collapse of the health service.

Thanks for (almost) quoting my words back to me but you seem to have missed the point. People were being forced into jobs, subsidised by the tax payer, where the spread of the disease was likely and there was a fairly well established alternative business model available. The impact is that larger gatherings that could be better managed, like football matches, now can’t go ahead. People are now going to be effectively starved back to work, with no legal requirement for workplaces to be Covid secure, when the furlough scheme is stopped. Other European countries have extended theirs well into next year.

Interesting stat on road traffic accidents, though perhaps not relevant unless you can spread car crashes by coughing on people...


Where are you getting this fantasy of hospitals being overrun from? They weren’t overrun at its peak and they aren’t rising now, despite the fact cases are rising. Medical professionals urged people back into hospitals for routine illness because the media terrified people into thinking the virus was far more deadly than it is.

You say it’s ‘all well and good talking about low mortality rates’ but that’s an absolutely crucial point is it not? The damage this fear mongering has done is going to have far wider reaching impact than the virus ever will.
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pen penfras
September 11, 2020, 2:09pm

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Quoted from pontoonlew


Where are you getting this fantasy of hospitals being overrun from? They weren’t overrun at its peak and they aren’t rising now, despite the fact cases are rising. Medical professionals urged people back into hospitals for routine illness because the media terrified people into thinking the virus was far more deadly than it is.

You say it’s ‘all well and good talking about low mortality rates’ but that’s an absolutely crucial point is it not? The damage this fear mongering has done is going to have far wider reaching impact than the virus ever will.


Hospitals didn't get overrun because we went into lockdown. Heading into the flu season and opening up society completely is a disaster waiting to happen for the NHS. If things are pushed too far, we'll end up with another 3 months not able to leave the house.
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pontoonlew
September 11, 2020, 2:31pm
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Quoted from pen penfras


Hospitals didn't get overrun because we went into lockdown. Heading into the flu season and opening up society completely is a disaster waiting to happen for the NHS. If things are pushed too far, we'll end up with another 3 months not able to leave the house.


Cases are currently at about 1/3 of what they were at its peak yet hospitals admissions are way down and deaths are incredibly low. The fact is most of society will be absolutely fine with the virus and efforts need to be made to allow that part of society to open up whilst protecting the vulnerable. It’s really not a difficult concept.
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Chrisblor
September 11, 2020, 2:51pm

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Quoted from pontoonlew


Where are you getting this fantasy of hospitals being overrun from? They weren’t overrun at its peak and they aren’t rising now, despite the fact cases are rising. Medical professionals urged people back into hospitals for routine illness because the media terrified people into thinking the virus was far more deadly than it is.


I mean they were very close to being overrun in Spring and you've now got tons of doctors wanting to quit because of how overworked they've felt over the last 6 months (https://www.theguardian.com/so.....handling-of-pandemic). Service levels and waiting times are now improving since hospitals did actually have to cancel loads of scheduled operations and appointments.

You're banging on about the media scaring people into avoiding hospitals in your tin-foil hat, but you're actually confusing reduced A&E admissions (which were as a result of people staying away from hospitals because they didn't want to contract covid) with cancellations of routine and scheduled appointments which were caused by hospitals having to massively shift focus onto treating covid patients in the spring to the detriment of other types of treatment. Here's a quote from the medical director of NHS England, who I imagine has far more expertise on this subject than whoever you're getting your news from:

“Pleasingly, cancer radiotherapy treatments are now fully back to their pre-Covid levels. The success of these service expansions depends on keeping Covid under control, so continued public action on hands-face-space, an effective test-and-trace service, and rapid action to control local outbreaks all continue to be vital.”

Yes, hospitalisations and death rates are now lower, and this is partially due to the increase in cases at present being driven by younger people who are less likely to die or need hospital treatment, but they're still contagious. The more young people that have the disease, the more old people will contract it from them, and the more badly affected hospitals will be as those older people end up needing treatment. There's a timelag to all of this, give it a few weeks and we likely will see higher rates of hospitalisations and deaths again (but possibly not quite at Spring levels because medical understanding of the virus has improved since then and doctors now understand how to treat it better).

None of this means it's not still a very dangerous and contagious disease that can really negatively impact even young & fit people. You keep saying how most of society will be absolutely fine with the virus - that isn't true. I'm a 32 year old who runs 10-15 miles a week. I don't want to get covid because everything I've heard from people who have had it makes it sound completely excrement and there's tons of evidence it has a nasty impact on your long term health and physical condition.


gary jones
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ska face
September 11, 2020, 2:55pm

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Quoted from pontoonlew


Where are you getting this fantasy of hospitals being overrun from? They weren’t overrun at its peak and they aren’t rising now, despite the fact cases are rising. Medical professionals urged people back into hospitals for routine illness because the media terrified people into thinking the virus was far more deadly than it is.


There was a very interesting documentary on the BBC over 2 or 3 nights that showed you how overrun hospitals were, I imagine it’d still on iPlayer. That any my wife works in Covid wards. And the fact that elderly patients were forced into care homes just to clear beds, which lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths of their residents. Up to 20% of Covid cases were contracted whilst in hospital, so not sure who these medical professionals are that we’re “urging people back into hospital for routine illness” when a lot of these services were cancelled and the govt guidance was to avoid hospitals unless you had Covid. Still, maybe that’s all a fantasy as you have suggested...


Quoted Text
You say it’s ‘all well and good talking about low mortality rates’ but that’s an absolutely crucial point is it not? The damage this fear mongering has done is going to have far wider reaching impact than the virus ever will.


The crucial point is to view figures in context, which you appear to struggle with.
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LH
September 11, 2020, 3:12pm

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The rise in cases might be cases in their early stage. In two or three weeks we might see a steep rise is hospitalisations. This all just a month after being encouraged to cram into pubs and restaurants to eat cheap by the Chancellor and people still want more. 🤪
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diehardmariner
September 11, 2020, 3:15pm
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https://www.lep.co.uk/health/c.....s-and-winter-2966604

So here's the problem, in as simple terms as I can make it.

We're facing an increase in the number of people with the virus.  Very simply, the more people that have the virus, the more people will suffer severe symptoms.  Granted, there is a large proportion who it will probably pass through unnoticed, but still the pressure on our health system is going to be increased as the virus interacts with more people.

As per the link, the vast majority of GP Practices aren't able to cope currently, never mind when a second wave hits. It was bad enough trying to get an appointment anyway but you try now.  So what happens when people don't get an appointment at their GP Practice?  One of three things: 1) They'll get frustrated and annoyed, their pain or ailment will go away naturally and all is well. 2) They'll not know what to do, the route cause of their problem won't be identified and as a result it's far more difficult to treat later on 3) they'll rock up at A&E.

So more poorly people in the system, not able to get their treatment from a GP - those who will now go and sit in A&E are a further strain on an already stretched system.

Ok, let's look at the hospital then.  Hospitals were split at the height of the initial wave to make sure that Covid patients were kept away from non-Covid patients.  This is common practice and is not to dissimilar to what happens when there's any outbreak, such as D&V, in any health or social care setting.  You contain the virus to prevent it spreading.  Sectioning off areas of the hospitals came at the cost of not urgent elective and non-elective procedures.  For some people that would be a case that their hip operation hasn't bee done, on the face of it no biggy (actually it is, but this is a different argument for a different day but you'll have to work with me when I say that long term this is big problem and causes many, many complications down the line).  But for a lot of people that could be a cancer treatment, it could be the identification of a growth that could have been cut out before causing damage.  These services that are designed to nip issues in the bud as early as possible had the brakes put on them.

That creates a perfect storm:

1) Patients not getting minor treatments at their GP Practice - poorly and untreated people in the wider population plus increased pressure on A&E Depts.
2) Lack of staff, equipment and resource to deal with a significant outbreak
3) Long term effects of cancelling routine procedures to cope with the above issues.
4) A workforce that has been flogged to death and is now at breaking point, to the actual point where there are concerns that staff will commit suicide!

Anything that's done to deal with Covid is merely moving the hump in the carpet.  We're hoping to push issues away that simply won't go away.  What happens if we don't find a vaccine for 3 years?  5 years?  10 years?  How the hell are we going to cope when we can't cope now.  Are we going to cancel all cancer treatments for that long?  Imagine the sheer impact from a health structure perspective.  More importantly, add the human factor into that.

You might be fine with the virus.  The virus may have well passed through you with absolutely no consequence at all.  But in the perfect storm scenario above, I would be willing to bet a fair amount of money that either you or someone you love gets caught up in it.
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ginnywings
September 11, 2020, 3:29pm

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Being reported on BBC that the R number has gone back above 1, so I am expecting measures to be tightened if anything. The R number will have to be brought back below 1 sharpish, or I can see another lockdown looming. Football is irrelevant at the moment.
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Chrisblor
September 11, 2020, 4:06pm

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We'll have a vaccine by early next year. Everything I hear about the Oxford one suggests it'll do the job once they've finished the Phase 3 trials (and my source for this is my brother who is actually working on it and listed as one of the authors here - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext)


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golfer
September 11, 2020, 4:07pm
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Several school children and teachers in Grimsby schools appear to have symptoms - they have been told the nearest testing stations that they can attend are in Hull,Lincoln or Sheffield , i.e. none in Grimsby   What the Fxs going on - don't we matter - they most likely think we are a small fishing village in Yorkshire.
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