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Coronavirus

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LH
March 8, 2020, 10:01pm

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Booked a holiday to Sicily about three weeks ago for the end of May and have tickets to a second round game at the Euros at Wembley so my summer is a write off already!  

Those figures project 1.8m dead as a worst case scenario in the UK. I might be underestimating it but even at around 800,000 at the low end that seems very high given that the deaths are likely to be the already ill.
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mariner91
March 8, 2020, 10:27pm
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The hospital where I work has had cases of coronavirus confirmed. Frankly at this point it's looking very likely to be a case of how bad will it be as opposed to whether it will happen or not. Doesn't help that there seems to be a blase way of thinking by some in the country that because it mainly affects the elderly, it's not really a big deal. A friend of mine went to Venice 10 days ago cause he knew that it wouldn't be busy there and, despite my badgering, is refusing to self isolate because he's self employed. He's been a good mate of mine for most of my life but Jesus, what a selfish attitude.


Looking forward to a brighter future now Fenty has gone.
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Poojah
March 8, 2020, 10:37pm
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Quoted from Maringer
WHO now saying that mortality rate is around 4%. If there is a pandemic here, they are estimating 30 to 70% of the population could catch it. That's a lot of dead people. In comparison, mortality rate in WWII was around 3% (although that was of everyone, of course). We just have to hope that the measures in place and those planned are enough to keep it in clusters and people are sensible enough to self-isolate as recommended.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if next week's game ended up being cancelled, along with other sporting events. The escalation in Italy shows what can happen with this illness and, let's not forget, some of those areas have been quarantined for a week or two already. I think it extremely likely that we'll see all schools shut before the end of the month. It's an unprecedented situation simply because the disease is so mild in some and so severe in others.


Have they actually said that? 4% would be a massive problem if accurate. On that basis, an 80% infection rate would equate to more than 2,000,000 deaths. To give that some perspective in terms of significant world events, that would be nearly 700 times the fatalities caused by the 9/11 attacks. In the UK alone.

Personally, my gut feel is that both infection and mortality rates will be lower than advertised - one of the cruel ironies of this virus seems to be that many people can carry, and spread it, without even knowing. On the plus side, it means that death rates are likely exaggerated.

But still, I think we may need to strap ourselves in on this one. Let’s move away from statistics for a moment. The potential for us as individuals to be personally affected by Covid-19 is high. Whether it’s a grandparent, parent, sibling, partner, friend or colleague, there’s a good chance that in three or four months time someone dear to us isn’t there anymore. Grim I know, but unfortunately probably true.


A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner.
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grimsby pete
March 8, 2020, 11:00pm

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Quoted from Grantham_Mariner


No free newspapers in Sussex then?



No idea I live in Suffolk  


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Maringer
March 8, 2020, 11:45pm
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Quoted from Poojah


Have they actually said that? 4% would be a massive problem if accurate.


Actually, 3.4%:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

I read it last night and remembered the 4 more than the 3. in front of it. Still, a heck of a lot higher than the 2% mooted previously.

The Italians have shut down much of their country which was the (eventual) approach of China in Hubei which has had some success. If it follows a similar trajectory over here, we'll have to do the same, economy be damned.

I do sort of hope that our status as an Island might change the dynamics of the spread of the disease somewhat, but I know it's a pretty baseless hope.
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Shipwrecked In Gainsborough
March 9, 2020, 12:22am
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We already have a " pandemic killer virus " and have done for years and years Quote "  regular seasonal flu kills 12,000 a year " and that's just in the UK. Read this article, it gives a reality check to all this newspaper hype:
https://straightstatistics.fullfact.org/article/flu-deaths-triumph-statistics-not-virology
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KingstonMariner
March 9, 2020, 4:48am
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We already have a " pandemic killer virus " and have done for years and years Quote "  regular seasonal flu kills 12,000 a year " and that's just in the UK. Read this article, it gives a reality check to all this newspaper hype:
https://straightstatistics.fullfact.org/article/flu-deaths-triumph-statistics-not-virology


Where did you find that (10 year old) article?

Far from saying these things are hyped, it actually says that the deaths known to be directly down to normal flu viruses were not much different from the number of deaths from swine flu (a few hundred each), and that the figure of 12,000 is estimated by assuming that some of the above the norm deaths occurring in flu season were partly caused by flu (ie other complications were involved). If you used the same methodology for swine flu, Covid 19 or any other new virus similar numbers might be achieved. It does say there are challenges with this type of method of estimating deaths and that more research was needed to establish numbers we could place more confidence in.

Now a lot may have happened in 10 years in the methodology used, I don’t know. But I would rather listen to current health experts and take their advice than some cynical blokes on a football message board/down the pub/far right columnist who thinks he knows more than experts in any field.


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Mayaman
March 9, 2020, 5:35am
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Quoted from Marinerz93
Around Christmas time there were quite a few people in the Grimsby area that had a flu type virus that was tough to get rid of. A persistent flu that seemingly attacked the lungs, a variant of the common flu (a type of Corrona Virus) and as aggressive as Corrona Virus 19. So who is to say that this virus didn't spread some time before it was identified especially with incubation periods.

The age group this effects the most are those above 75+ and those with underlining health conditions for the vast majority of the public will over come this so the panic on the whole is ridiculous. The only ones that should be stocking food or face masks is those who this virus will really effect.

Unless it mutates into the Spanish flu just follow basic hygiene procedures and most won't even get this.



From Christmas through to Lunar New year, I had an unbelievable dry cough.  I put it down to the pollution here  in Saigon but this was constant coughing and very persistent. Probably not Corvid-19 but makes you wonder. My colleagues had it it too.
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Mayaman
March 9, 2020, 5:43am
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Quoted from mariner91
The hospital where I work has had cases of coronavirus confirmed. Frankly at this point it's looking very likely to be a case of how bad will it be as opposed to whether it will happen or not. Doesn't help that there seems to be a blase way of thinking by some in the country that because it mainly affects the elderly, it's not really a big deal. A friend of mine went to Venice 10 days ago cause he knew that it wouldn't be busy there and, despite my badgering, is refusing to self isolate because he's self employed. He's been a good mate of mine for most of my life but Jesus, what a selfish attitude.



We were doing pretty well in Vietnam until some rich bint  apparently went on a shopping trip to Europe, including Italy but on her return she lied about where she'd been.  That's selfish.  She would have just been put in quarantine.  Turns out she has it and the cases doubled overnight as the authorities tracked down her family members and staff. She may have been in Italy when it kicked off there but if not, I agree, it's a selfish attitude.
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Maringer
March 9, 2020, 6:40am
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Human nature, unfortunately. When the plans for the quarantine were leaked in Italy, there was a rush of people to get out and head down south, apparently! Exactly the opposite of what the quarantine was intended to achieve through sheer stupidity.

Expect the same to happen here if quarantines are announced.
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