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Coronavirus

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mariner91
March 13, 2020, 6:44pm
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There's no right or wrong answer to the outbreak as it stands. Even amongst virologists and epidemiologists there are differing trains of thought. On the one hand you have those who believe that the sooner you put measures in place to stop it the better. On the other hand is the fact that there's no immunity to this new and novel virus and the likelihood is that we'll see it coming and going in outbreaks certainly for months, possibly for a couple of years.

Just because we've decided to go down one route as opposed to most of the rest of the world doesn't necessarily mean it's the wrong decision but it is a fairly huge gamble. All eyes are on China now to see if there is a new outbreak and what happens then. If it starts spreading again rapidly throughout the other provinces then herd immunity for the long term might be a good idea. If it doesn't then it was a bad one.

The hospitals are already struggling. We have an incredibly low number of ICU beds in this country per population. About the lowest in Europe in fact in nations with a remotely comparable population size. Winter time in the NHS always see's a struggle for beds and this has been no different. In the hospital where I work, the vast majority of elective procedures have been cancelled indefinitely and we are doing as many consultations by telephone as possible (which is really difficult). If it spreads as much as some of the modelling suggests we are going to very quickly start to get overwhelmed. Once the staff start to become sick, which will happen, it's going to be a bit of a nightmare. In my hospital we don't have enough PPE at the minute so as it stands, despite the fact I'm regularly seeing patients in resus and urgent care, I haven't been fitted with a respirator. You still take sensible precautions but it's far from ideal. It is likely that we will see a situation similar to Italy in the next few weeks and we actually have fewer ICU beds and ventilators than they do.Some of the advice going to the COBRA meeting yesterday was for a lockdown, they decided to go with the ones who said not just yet. My boss is one of the national trauma leads so I know his opinion given to COBRA was for a lockdown now. As I said, it doesn't make it the wrong decision but it's a gamble and it could have a big price with potentially thousands of lives prematurely.

What we can all do as individuals is make sure that we're following sensible advice. Isolate yourself for a week minimum if you have any sort of symptoms. Work from home if you can work from home. Wash your hands as regularly as possible. Cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing. Limit your time spent in crowded public spaces. And avoid visiting your elderly or vulnerable relatives for the next few weeks if you are remotely concerned about potentially having it.

To anyone on here who may be more vulnerable, all the best and I really hope everyone who posts or reads on here is not adversely affected by this virus.


Looking forward to a brighter future now Fenty has gone.
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LH
March 13, 2020, 6:46pm

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Herd immunity seems like a really stupid idea in the sense that there will be people going out looking to catch it to get it over and done with and end up dying because they’re not as fit as they think they are or have unknown health issues.
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Ipswin
March 13, 2020, 6:56pm
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Quoted from LH
Herd immunity seems like a really stupid idea in the sense that there will be people going out looking to catch it to get it over and done with and end up dying because they’re not as fit as they think they are or have unknown health issues.


If I can hang on until the 60% 'herd' have had it will I a) have less chance of being infected and b) have a better chance given the lower numbers, of being hospitalised if needed?


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KingstonMariner
March 13, 2020, 6:59pm
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Quoted from Ipswin


If I can hang on until the 60% 'herd' have had it will I a) have less chance of being infected and b) have a better chance given the lower numbers, of being hospitalised if needed?


The latter I think Swin. If we can delay the virus until Dec 31 we will have an extra £365m a week to spend on the NHS.


Through the door there came familiar laughter,
I saw your face and heard you call my name.
Oh my friend we're older but no wiser,
For in our hearts the dreams are still the same.
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codcheeky
March 13, 2020, 7:01pm
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Quoted from Stadium


Exactly this.
The CSA states that at least 60% of the population needs to contract COVID-19 in order to develop "herd immunity" to prevent further transmission in the future.
The aim of measures announced is not to "eliminate" but to "suppress" the spread of coronavirus so there will not be a "second peak" in the winter after the country recovers


Herd immunity will mean the survival of the fittest in a situation like this, I have relatives in Italy who are saying anyone over 65 is now unlikely to be treated in some areas because of lack of capacity, as mariner1 says they have more intensive care beds than us,  Their policy is to try and contain it this year and hope a vaccine is developed , ours seems to be carry on until enough are immune , a similar approach to the Black Death
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Stadium
March 13, 2020, 7:03pm
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Quoted from LH
Herd immunity seems like a really stupid idea in the sense that there will be people going out looking to catch it to get it over and done with and end up dying because they’re not as fit as they think they are or have unknown health issues.


There's no data to say that the immunity scenario will be successful.
From WHO:
“Covid-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity,” the statement read. “That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.”



“There's nothing wrong with the car except that it's on fire.”- Murray Walker
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MarinerDevil
March 13, 2020, 7:09pm
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I hope beyond all hope that this might finally wake the world up to how exposed we are in a global economy, and the necessity of readily available healthcare.  Governments have been warned that we're overdue a serious health crisis but it's never been a priority, Trump even sacked his pandemic response unit in 2018.  We're just lucky that it's not significantly worse.
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Rodley Mariner
March 13, 2020, 7:12pm
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Quoted from Meza
I went to Italy its a scruffy place and they have a lot of elderly people (2nd highest apparently) hence why they have a thousand deaths UK has just 10 in 12k cases.

China etc everyone has mouth guards.


Too right mate. Went to that Ponte del Vecchio in Florence. Absolute shithole compared to Riby Square.
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Ipswin
March 13, 2020, 7:27pm
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Quoted from KingstonMariner


The latter I think Swin. If we can delay the virus until Dec 31 we will have an extra £365m a week to spend on the NHS.


At the moment mate with my underlying health issues (and my advanced years) I reckon getting drunk on New Years Eve would be an achievement  



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rancido
March 13, 2020, 7:31pm

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Quoted from codcheeky

Herd immunity will mean the survival of the fittest in a situation like this, I have repetitively in Italy who are saying anyone over 65 is now unlikely to be treated in some areas because of lack of capacity, as mariner1 says they have more intensive care beds than us,  Their policy is to try and contain it this year and hope a vaccine is developed , ours seems to be carry on until enough are immune , a similar approach to the Black Death


To compare the Black Death, a 14th century pandemic with a high mortality rate, to the present coronavirus is crass, asinine and shows a total lack of understanding of anything even remotely medical! Even the fact that even the basics of human medical functions were not understood then to the slightest degree seems to be lost on you. Even immunity to any illness in the 14th century was an unimaginable concept.


The Future is Black & White.
"The commonest thing on this planet is not water , as some people believe, but stupidity ". Frank Zappa
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