Has the Premier League become too predictable?

Some good journalism recently in The Times and Sunday Times highlighted some interesting facts about results in the Premier League this season.

This season the top six clubs have won every single game that they have played against the bottom 3 teams (Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff).   That is 31 games and 31 wins.   90 goals have been scored by the top teams in these 31 wins.  Some contentious refereeing decisions may well have helped these results (see Cardiff v Chelsea recently).

This completel unbalanced outcome is despite the ratio of the TV money being more evenly distributed to all Premiership teams than in say France or Spain.  

It is said that in the Championship "and team can beat any other team".  In Div 2 this week, Macclesfield who were bottom, beat Exexeter who were in the play-offs.  

The CL and Europa Cup results this season shows that the strength of the top 6 English teams. Maybe the 31 wins are down to the exceptional weaknesses of the bottom 3 teams?   Both Fulham and Huddersfield are trying to avoid Premiership records for the most goals conceded and the least goals scored.  

However, it is not just the bottom teams that are getting beaten in every game by the top 6.  Watford are highly-placed and FA Cup finalists.  Watford beat Spurs last Sep.  Since then they have lost 9 out of 9 games against the top 6 teams.  A consistently poor record for a team chasisng Europe next season.

The allocation of money changes next season, with more money going to to the top 6 teams.  The Premier League will move more towards 3 or 4 competive divisions.

It is not solely about money.  Fulham were the third biggest spenders this season, spending over £100 million on players.  Spurs hardly spent any money.  Look what the 2 teams have each achieved this season?

The logical move is for sustained pressure from the top teams to seek more money and or competative matches.  A European Super League. (The top 6 are all still in European competions this season.  This may not be enough).  Celtic continue to dominate Scottish football.  This lack of serious challengers does not help them progress in the Champions League.

    

The fact that since its conception   27 yrs ago there have only been 6 teams that have won it says something...take out the 2 teams that have caused a blip ( Blackburn and Leicester ) then the other 24 titles have been shared between 4 teams...predictable ?? Of course.

Compared to 11 in the 27 years before the prem began.

Yes.

Quoted from moosey_club

The fact that since its conception   27 yrs ago there have only been 6 teams that have won it says something...take out the 2 teams that have caused a blip ( Blackburn and Leicester ) then the other 24 titles have been shared between 4 teams...predictable ?? Of course.

It could be worse look at Scotland, Spain, The Netherlands, Germany et al

makes our title winners look very varied indeed.

Quoted from Ipswin

It could be worse look at Scotland, Spain, The Netherlands, Germany et al

makes our title winners look very varied indeed.

But those leagues were ever thus (with the odd blip), while in England there was a reasonable chance of someone like Ipswich (!), Villa or Derby coming up to the top table even if we appeared to have periods of dominance by a few.

One other factor now is that we no longer have the European Cup but the misnamed Champions League. To join the EC you had to actually win your domestic league so the title really meant something. Only the holders were exempt. It wasn't good enough to sneak in to the CL in 4th and pick up a fortune to keep you up with the domestic elite.

Don’t the best sides normally win the league ? Well if that’s predictable then , yes

Quoted from Ipswin

makes our title winners look very varied indeed.

I think I'm right in saying that the PL hasn't been retained since 2009 - the longest run in any of Europe's top divisions.

(Obviously the top 6 is entirely predictable though)

Quoted from Abdul19

I think I'm right in saying that the PL hasn't been retained since 2009 - the longest run in any of Europe's top divisions.

(Obviously the top 6 is entirely predictable though)

That really emphasises my point about the Champions League, Abdul. They don't need to win the league title anymore. They only need to qualify for the CL.  Although the supporters may be a bit miffed for a minute or two at finishing 2/3/4 the moneybags will be content.

Quoted from TheRonRaffertyFanClub

Although the supporters may be a bit miffed for a minute or two at finishing 2/3/4 the moneybags will be content.

Hence Arsene Wenger keeping his job for so long!

Quoted from Ipswin

It could be worse look at Scotland, Spain, The Netherlands, Germany et al

makes our title winners look very varied indeed.

i couldnt give a flying one about their Leagues....the Premier League does throw up the odd shock result but year after year they grow rarer, those top 4 sides that have dominated it over the past 27 years wont get relegated, will hardly finish outside of the top four, will have a European campaign every season barring an absolute disastrous at every level season.

Worst part is that is starting to drip into the Championship now....we couldnt survive at that level nowadays and for my generation that is a division that we used to frequent and do ok in. Premier league money has ruined lower league football, the best a well run club living within its means can hope for is League 1.  

All warnings were given back in 90/91 but not heeded, its a monster.

I've always maintained that the goal of the top clubs will be to end up with a European League and there are moves afoot to expand the Champions League to 4 groups of 8, meaning there will be 14 games for each side before they even get to the knock out stages. There are similar plans for the Europa League too. The CL has been steadily expanding since it's inception and it will only be a matter of time before the clubs at the very top break away in my opinion. The clubs currently on the Prem gravy train, but outside of the elite, will then start to wither too in comparison. The trouble with greed is that there is no end to it. The more they get, the more they want, and because the rich hold all the power, they will get their way eventually.

The Football League and in particular The Championship, by default of greater/any decent media coverage has long been a far more exciting prospect than the Premier League.

That said I think the Premier League has bucked its own trend a little in the past 5 or so years.  Leicester winning the title was genuinely exciting to watch and the re-emergence of Liverpool, the growth of Spurs and I suppose the massive cash injection at Man City plus the relative demise of Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea has at least mixed things up a bit.  

Abdul's point about no-one retaining since 2009 is a good one and not one I had observed.  The title itself is going to the wire, which last happened in 2012-13 I think when City pipped United.  Can't think that happens often in Spain, Italy etc.  

I don't think the PL is hugely exciting or indeed massively dull.  I think it's just completely over-saturated now.  Sky love to point out that over Xmas they have 30 games on over 30 days, or something equally over the top.  But the vast majority of people surely don't want that much football in their lives.  It just makes it the norm rather than a treat.  

No.

Premier League Champions since 2009...

2009 - Man Utd
2010 - Chelsea
2011 - Man Utd
2012 - Man City
2013 - Man Utd
2014 - Man City
2015 - Chelsea
2016 - Leicester
2017 - Chelsea
2018 - Man City

La Liga Champions since 2009...

2009 - Barcelona
2010 - Barcelona
2011 - Barcelona
2012 - Real Madrid
2013 - Barcelona
2014 - Atletico
2015 - Barcelona
2016 - Barcelona
2017 - Real Madrid
2018 - Barcelona

Bundesliga Champions since 2009...

2009 - Wolfsburg
2010 - Bayern
2011 - Dortmund
2012 - Dortmund
2013 - Bayern
2014 - Bayern
2015 - Bayern
2016 - Bayern
2017 - Bayern
2018 - Bayern

Serie A Champions since 2009...

2009 - Inter
2010 - Inter
2011 - AC Milan
2012 - Juventus
2013 - Juventus
2014 - Juventus
2015 - Juventus
2016 - Juventus
2017 - Juventus
2018 - Juventus

Ligue 1 Champions since 2009...

2009 - Bordeaux
2010 - Marseille
2011 - Lille
2012 - Montpellier
2013 - PSG
2014 - PSG
2015 - PSG
2016 - PSG
2017 - Monaco
2018 - PSG

Premiership Champions since 2009...

2009 - Rangers
2010 - Rangers
2011 - Rangers
2012 - Celtic
2013 - Celtic
2014 - Celtic
2015 - Celtic
2016 - Celtic
2017 - Celtic
2018 - Celtic

Primeira Liga Champions since 2009...

2009 - Porto
2010 - Benfica
2011 - Porto
2012 - Porto
2013 - Porto
2014 - Benfica
2015 - Benfica
2016 - Benfica
2017 - Benfica
2018 - Porto