License to print money.

Quoted from GrimRob

It's so easy to be fooled by randomness and to see patterns where none exist. I remember noticing that one Super League season there was only one draw. I decided to lay the draw on Betfair at a quite long price but one that would make a healthy return over the season in the event of only a few draws. Of course I had been fooled by randomness and the following year there were far more draws than normal and I lost heavily. Had I started looking one year later I'd have bet on draws rather than lay them, such are the vagaries of chance. The moral of the story is to backtest over a long period of several years to try out your pet theory before starting to put bets on. It's so easy to be fooled by the apparent patterns in random behaviour like football scores.

Backtesting is a load of codswallop. Just because something happened in the past does not mean anything in the future. All successful backtesting tells you is that if you had put those bets on in the past then you would have won.

Free bets are guaranteed to make money.

Best thing ever.

But those that profit from them eventually get banned or restricted.

Quoted from cannylad68

Free bets are guaranteed to make money.

Best thing ever.

But those that profit from them eventually get banned or restricted.

So are you saying that if you are quite successful at betting he companies get shirty ? Does seem fair if so as it's called gambling, but for the punter and the company.

Bookies will start limiting your account if they see you're profitable over a long period of time (or if you just use their 'reload' offers and never place a traditional bet).

There are so many online betting companies out there that they're all pushing more and more free bets and offers - not just to win new customers, but to retain them long term.

The trouble is, you have a lot of matched bettors who (legally) abuse the offers. Betting companies are getting wise to this and they're cracking down.

Quoted from RichMariner

Bookies will start limiting your account if they see you're profitable over a long period of time (or if you just use their 'reload' offers and never place a traditional bet).

There are so many online betting companies out there that they're all pushing more and more free bets and offers - not just to win new customers, but to retain them long term.

The trouble is, you have a lot of matched bettors who (legally) abuse the offers. Betting companies are getting wise to this and they're cracking down.

I don't think betting companies will evee be able to crack down completely on matched betting because to avoid suspicion just put a few "normal" bets and that would potentially throw them off the scent, also if you get restricted by one betting company there's always many more to continue the matched betting, there's loads who we've never even heard off!

Just remember that they are a business and in the business of making money.....they set the markets....they promote the markets they want you to bet on......do people really think that good old Ray Winston is actually offering you an unbiased view of what might be a good bet at half time ?

Every minute of every game they are monitoring the overall loss and profit as each game stands and will attempt to sway the market in their favour.

Anyone who listens to Talksport will have heard Paddy Power himself come on and tell you what he thinks is a good bet for that days races, big event etc...wow thanks Paddy for offering me a great inside tip !!! FFS.

Betting for the majority is for fun....you should bet what you can afford to lose and nothing else.....unless of course you get offered nearly 2-1 for Town beating Chesterfield then you should put your house on it !!

Could somebody explain what 'matched betting' is please?

Quoted from Mighty_Mariner

Could somebody explain what 'matched betting' is please?

Basically you take advantage of the sign up offers bookies offer by backing and laying teams using the bookies site and a betting exchange such as bet Fair, then when they have gone you've got reload offers to make more money, it's a gaurenteed profit.

Quoted from pen penfras

Backtesting is a load of codswallop. Just because something happened in the past does not mean anything in the future. All successful backtesting tells you is that if you had put those bets on in the past then you would have won.

And the alternative is just to bet and hope. Betfair, for example, provides minute by minute prices going back years, it's possible to do very sophisticated backtesting of algorithms so you can test not just the prices but things like whether it's better to bet 5 minutes before kick off or 3 days before, and whether to back or to lay. You can also see how likely you are to go broke and run out of money and what staking strategy you should use to avoid to minimise the chances of losing everything (which is a real risk even for a winning strategy).

Quoted from GrimRob

And the alternative is just to bet and hope. Betfair, for example, provides minute by minute prices going back years, it's possible to do very sophisticated backtesting of algorithms so you can test not just the prices but things like whether it's better to bet 5 minutes before kick off or 3 days before, and whether to back or to lay. You can also see how likely you are to go broke and run out of money and what staking strategy you should use to avoid to minimise the chances of losing everything (which is a real risk even for a winning strategy).

pffft....or you could just wake up and fancy a team a win