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LH
October 21, 2018, 11:06pm

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Twitter statistician @experimental361’s model reckon we’ve got a greater than 50% chance of relegation based on goal expectation data gathered between the first game and now. I can’t argue with that based on how we’ve struggled in front of goal but let some easy ones in our own net.

Source:
[tweet]1054045559684825088[/tweet]
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Cloudy
October 22, 2018, 6:49am
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No excrement, as we have scored less goals than everyone else therefore it would be strange if we weren’t predicted to be bottom on a ‘forecast’ based on goals scored to date would it not?

Someone has a hell of a lot of time on their hands imho
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Abdul19
October 22, 2018, 7:12am

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But it's not based on goals scored to date, it's based on the expected goals stats (although I don't know where these stats come from in League 2?)


JESUS AT THE CENTRE
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Cloudy
October 22, 2018, 7:26am
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Quoted from Abdul19
But it's not based on goals scored to date, it's based on the expected goals stats (although I don't know where these stats come from in League 2?)


Expected goals based on how many scored to date?
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GrimRob
October 22, 2018, 7:29am

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If we keep keeping clean sheets our expected goal stats should improve


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
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LH
October 22, 2018, 8:11am

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Expected goals is calculated using chances created (not necessarily shots), shots, shots on target and actual goals and obviously how many of those you give away at your own end.

This account is quite dynamic and recalculates the tables after every game. I’m sure a few weeks ago we’d have been well adrift but a few clean sheets will have brought us back a bit bht thats only half the problem.
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mirrorballman
October 22, 2018, 8:22am
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Quoted from Cloudy
No excrement, as we have scored less goals than everyone else therefore it would be strange if we weren’t predicted to be bottom on a ‘forecast’ based on goals scored to date would it not?

Someone has a hell of a lot of time on their hands imho


Maybe he doesn't spend all his free time on football forums arguing the toss😉

The model isn't based on goals scored so far. Have a look at the explanation on the website. I don't agree with the usefulness of all the analysis but some of it is quite interesting and can highlight over/under performing teams. For example, I think the stats showed we should have been running away with the Conference the year we went up.
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grimsby pete
October 22, 2018, 10:36am

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Its a long way to the end of the season and things can change in so many different ways for so many clubs.


                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
                             68 Years following the Town

                              Life member of Trust

                               First game   April 1955
                               
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moosey_club
October 22, 2018, 4:57pm
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My own interpretation of our season thus far based on my own data ...

we dont threaten from set pieces of any sort
we dont have many shots on target
we dont win many penalties as we are not in the opposition box enough
hence...
we dont score many goals
& our defensive performances fluctuate wildly

All of the above indicate to me that without a major shift in the first 4 items we wont be rapidly climbing the table anytime soon.

I would imagine that checking Lincoln's stats they have converted a decent number of set pieces into goals...i think in their big win a couple of weeks back they got 4 goals from corners alone.



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jamesgtfc
October 22, 2018, 9:52pm
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Quoted from moosey_club
My own interpretation of our season thus far based on my own data ...

we dont threaten from set pieces of any sort
we dont have many shots on target
we dont win many penalties as we are not in the opposition box enough
hence...
we dont score many goals
& our defensive performances fluctuate wildly

All of the above indicate to me that without a major shift in the first 4 items we wont be rapidly climbing the table anytime soon.

I would imagine that checking Lincoln's stats they have converted a decent number of set pieces into goals...i think in their big win a couple of weeks back they got 4 goals from corners alone.



The point in bold is evidenced by how happy Exeter were to head the ball behind for a corner on Saturday. We just don't ever look like threatening from set pieces.
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Cloudy
October 23, 2018, 6:43am
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Quoted from jamesgtfc


The point in bold is evidenced by how happy Exeter were to head the ball behind for a corner on Saturday. We just don't ever look like threatening from set pieces.


Think we have done far better with corners than previous seasons. We tend to beat the first man these days!
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MarinerBen
October 23, 2018, 8:59am

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Maybe the statistician took into account our 7 of 9 recent points and also decided we were being spoilt?


"Take what you can, give nothing back"
                                                                 - Capt. J. Sparrow
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