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Morecambe

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RichMariner
May 2, 2018, 12:18pm
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Given their recent form, I wondered whether Barnet were actually favourites to stay up.

They're odds on to beat Chesterfield (1.57) and Coventry are just short of evens (1.95) to beat Morecambe.

Combine those two bets (the only scenario where Barnet can stay up) and you get odds of 3.06 (sorry, I use decimal).

Morecambe to draw or win at Coventry is 1.80.

So, Barnet to stay up is roughly 2/1 and Morecambe to stay up is 4/5.

Morecambe remain favourites to survive - even though Barnet and Coventry are odds on to win their respective matches.

A tenner on Barnet to stay up will give you £20.60 profit, but use the relegation market (for Morecambe to go down at 3.25) and you get slightly more at £22.50 profit.

Is it worth a tenner?


"Don't shine that light in my face, mate - I've just lost a pint of blood."
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grimsby pete
May 2, 2018, 12:26pm

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I got a feeling Chesterfield might surprise us and Barnet by stopping Barnet getting the win they must have to keep up,

Morecombe will get hammered at Coventry but it wont matter.


                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
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MarinerGaz
May 2, 2018, 12:33pm

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Quoted from RichMariner
Given their recent form, I wondered whether Barnet were actually favourites to stay up.

They're odds on to beat Chesterfield (1.57) and Coventry are just short of evens (1.95) to beat Morecambe.

Combine those two bets (the only scenario where Barnet can stay up) and you get odds of 3.06 (sorry, I use decimal).

Morecambe to draw or win at Coventry is 1.80.

So, Barnet to stay up is roughly 2/1 and Morecambe to stay up is 4/5.

Morecambe remain favourites to survive - even though Barnet and Coventry are odds on to win their respective matches.

A tenner on Barnet to stay up will give you £20.60 profit, but use the relegation market (for Morecambe to go down at 3.25) and you get slightly more at £22.50 profit.

Is it worth a tenner?


Funny how stats can tell often a different story (even if they are heavily placed bet led)...if this is correct then there's even more chance (according to the odds) of Morecambe staying up if the Barnet draw/lose scenario hasn't been added.

I doubt this will make any Shrimps feel better about the situation though!
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TheRonRaffertyFanClub
May 2, 2018, 12:33pm
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Reading some of the posts on the Morecambe forum, they don’t seem too bothered about going down and think it is a foregone conclusion.


“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.”
― John Stuart Mill, On Liberty."
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RonMariner
May 2, 2018, 12:37pm

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Quoted from RichMariner
So, Barnet to stay up is roughly 2/1 and Morecambe to stay up is 4/5.

Morecambe remain favourites to survive - even though Barnet and Coventry are odds on to win their respective matches.



I don't fully understand all this betting stuff, but I guess the other factor to consider is that a draw in either game sends Barnet down. Only one of the nine possible combinations of results means Barnet staying up.

I will watch developments on Saturday with interest, but thankfully no emotional involvement!  If Matt hadn't nodded in the winner on Saturday I'd be a nervous wreck at this point!  
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RichMariner
May 2, 2018, 1:31pm
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How different the table would look if Rose hadn't scored that equalising penalty against Barnet!

We'd be on 47, Morecambe and Barnet both on 45.

We'd be all on 45 if Matt hadn't scored that winner!


"Don't shine that light in my face, mate - I've just lost a pint of blood."
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ginnywings
May 2, 2018, 1:34pm

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Quoted from RichMariner
How different the table would look if Rose hadn't scored that equalising penalty against Barnet!

We'd be on 47, Morecambe and Barnet both on 45.

We'd be all on 45 if Matt hadn't scored that winner!


Well we don't have to imagine all those 'what if's' now.  
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golfer
May 3, 2018, 9:05am
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Think they have just about gone. With Mad Dog at Barnet and M.J. here it just about proves what a clearout and a decent change of manager can do. Thank god we did it JUST in time
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Gaffer58
May 3, 2018, 4:02pm
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Quoted from golfer
Think they have just about gone. With Mad Dog at Barnet and M.J. here it just about proves what a clearout and a decent change of manager can do. Thank god we did it JUST in time


Golfer, what's this about "we" it was down to Mr Fenty and for that we should all be eternally grateful, well that's what Mrs Fenty told my missus in the hairdressers Wednesday morning.
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grimsby pete
May 3, 2018, 7:39pm

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Quoted from Gaffer58


Golfer, what's this about "we" it was down to Mr Fenty and for that we should all be eternally grateful, well that's what Mrs Fenty told my missus in the hairdressers Wednesday morning.


Did she also say thanks to the Fishy for finding MJ for John.


                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
                             68 Years following the Town

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