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 lew chaterleys lover |
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Unless I've figured this out incorrectly - Barnet must beat Morecambe on Saturday, at Morecambe. If they fail to win we are safe whatever our score.
If we beat Notts county, we are safe, whatever Barnet's result.
If Barnet win and we lose or draw, we'll go into the final game away at FGR needing to win to guarantee safety, or at least to match Barnet's result at home to Chesterfield.
If Morecambe lose tomorrow, and then lose to Barnet, we will not need anything if they lose at Coventry as well. God its complicated, even with only a couple of games to go! I thought if we draw on Sat we would only need a draw at FGR ? |
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| KingstonMariner |
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| Poojah |
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Unless I've figured this out incorrectly - Barnet must beat Morecambe on Saturday, at Morecambe. If they fail to win we are safe whatever our score.
If we beat Notts county, we are safe, whatever Barnet's result.
If Barnet win and we lose or draw, we'll go into the final game away at FGR needing to win to guarantee safety, or at least to match Barnet's result at home to Chesterfield.
A defeat for Morecambe tomorrow changes the dynamic considerably in our favour. With two games left for each team, there are still loads of permutations however in terms of simple probability it’s only a very small % that can send us down. Effectively, it would take: - Barnet to beat Morecambe - Town to lose or draw against Notts County - Barnet to beat Chesterfield - Morecambe to better our result on the final day by a point if we lose against County or two points if we draw Far stranger things have happened in football but there are quite a few planets which will need to align there in order for us to be relegated. Should Morecambe win tomorrow night the probability of us going down rises significantly, however of all the teams who can still drop our set of circumstances is the one I’d choose. All will be marginally clearer this time tomorrow. |
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| RonMariner |
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A defeat for Morecambe tomorrow changes the dynamic considerably in our favour. With two games left for each team, there are still loads of permutations however in terms of simple probability it’s only a very small % that can send us down. Effectively, it would take:
- Barnet to beat Morecambe
- Town to lose or draw against Notts County
- Barnet to beat Chesterfield
- Morecambe to better our result on the final day by a point if we lose against County or two points if we draw
Far stranger things have happened in football but there are quite a few planets which will need to align there in order for us to be relegated.
Should Morecambe win tomorrow night the probability of us going down rises significantly, however of all the teams who can still drop our set of circumstances is the one I’d choose. All will be marginally clearer this time tomorrow.
Don't forget the fact that two draws for us keeps us up at the expense of Barnet. So all of the above items in your list could occur and we could still survive! I wonder if Rob could calculate the odds of all of that happening? |
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| Biccys |
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Don't forget the fact that two draws for us keeps us up at the expense of Barnet. So all of the above items in your list could occur and we could still survive!
I wonder if Rob could calculate the odds of all of that happening?
50-50. It will happen or it won't. |
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| RonMariner |
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50-50. It will happen or it won't.
You mean it's 50-50 me winning the lottery this weekend?  Might buy a ticket then. |
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| RonMariner |
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In fact I'll buy two tickets.......
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| Poojah |
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Don't forget the fact that two draws for us keeps us up at the expense of Barnet. So all of the above items in your list could occur and we could still survive!
I wonder if Rob could calculate the odds of all of that happening?
You are indeed correct. Maths isn’t really my strong suit but I make it that there are 60 possible scenarios, of which 4 would see us go down. I could be slightly out with that, but that would mean a roughly 6.5% chance of relegation which I’d have taken at this stage a few weeks ago. Happy for someone more academic than I to correct me however. Edit: this would be true only if Morecambe lose tomorrow. |
| A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner. |
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| RonMariner |
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You are indeed correct. Maths isn’t really my strong suit but I make it that there are 60 possible scenarios, of which 4 would see us go down. I could be slightly out with that, but that would mean a roughly 6.5% chance of relegation which I’d have taken at this stage a few weeks ago.
Happy for someone more academic than I to correct me however.
Slightly more complex than that because the probability of each outcome is not identical, but Rob normally has all this stuff at his fingertips so can tell us the true odds. I suggest he doesn't bother until this time tomorrow though....... |
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| Badger57 |
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lew chaterleys lover
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Might buy a ticket then.
