League Two Fixtures Run-in – Bottom Six Teams

Below is the full run-in for all the main relegation threatened teams, including 'game in hand' where highlighted.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/3DEVjvn.png[/img]
Barnet
Saturday 28th April
Morecambe Vs Barnet

Saturday 5th May
Barnet Vs Chesterfield

Chesterfield
Saturday 28th April
Chesterfield Vs Wycombe Wanderers

Tuesday 1st May
Chesterfield Vs Newport County (Game in hand)

Saturday 5th May
Barnet Vs Chesterfield

Forest Green Rovers
Tuesday 24th April
Yeovil Town Vs Forest Green Rovers (Game in hand)

Saturday 28th April
Luton Town Vs Forest Green Rovers

Saturday 5th May
Forest Green Rovers Vs Grimsby Town

Grimsby Town
Saturday 28th April
Grimsby Town Vs Notts County

Saturday 5th May
Forest Green Rovers Vs Grimsby Town

Morecambe
Tuesday 24th April
Morecambe Vs Cambridge United (Game in hand)

Saturday 28th April
Morecambe Vs Barnet

Saturday 5th May
Coventry City Vs Morecambe

I'd rather have Barnet's fixtures, but they would rather have our points tally, so still favouring us at the moment.

Realistically if Barnet get two wins, (Morecambe and Chesterfield) likely given their fixtures then we’re screwed. I can see us maybe getting a point. Two at the most.

Port Vale are safe (logically). Chesterfield look doomed. After them, I think we’ve got the hardest run in.

Swindon are effectively out of the playoff race, Notts County night start resting players if they make the playoffs next week and FGR will probably be safe when we play them. I’m trying to stay positive here!

Swindon are not out of the play off race by any stretch and we are usually the team that get other sides back on form. We have lost our last 6 away games, so anything from that will be a bonus. Notts County are still in the running for automatic, so they will come here all guns blazing, unless they lose next week and Wycombe win, which would leave them out of the running for automatic and possibly resting players. Straws, clutching at.

That is why i desperately wanted that win today, to take away all this, will they, won't they sh1t. It's doing my nut in.

If you look on the Barnet forum, most think they are down and some are having a pop at Martin Allen. It's natural to be pessimistic of your own teams chances.

Need a sneaky away win then enjoy a home point over Notts
Simples.....

Quoted from ginnywings

If you look on the Barnet forum, most think they are down and some are having a pop at Martin Allen. It's natural to be pessimistic of your own teams chances.

I know I am  

That is harsh on Allen isn't it? They were dead and buried when he took over and now I reckon they have a decent chance which would be miraculous really.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

I know I am  

That is harsh on Allen isn't it? They were dead and buried when he took over and now I reckon they have a decent chance which would be miraculous really.

There are other more considered posters pointing that out and defending him it has to be said.

Quoted from ginnywings

If you look on the Barnet forum, most think they are down and some are having a pop at Martin Allen. It's natural to be pessimistic of your own teams chances.

Was a nice little pick-me-up after a depressing evening. Cheers Ginny!

Chesterfield and Morecambe down, you heard it here first

Quoted from davmariner

Was a nice little pick-me-up after a depressing evening. Cheers Ginny!

Sometimes, it's good to get another perspective on things.

I think Barnet needed to beat us to stay up.

If we get no more points (and I don't think that will happen) To overhaul us they have to pick up 5 points. They have won 9 times in 43 games and drawn 10 out of 43 games and lost 24 out of 43 games. This suggests a decent return for them will be 1 win 1 draw and 1 defeat (that's over achieving their average this season by quite a bit, but is what they have achieved from their last 3 games) and that's still not enough.

Of their remaining 3 games they play Newport who had a good win against our next opponents Swindon today. Get a result away at Morcambe who are draw specialists. By the time it gets to Chesterfield it might be all over.

I'm not saying it's all over but were in a much better position than most on here think.

So in two weeks we've seen the bottom 3 based upon what I have seen Chesterfield will go down and possibly take us with them when the capitulate on the last day at Barnet.

I know we have a 5 point cushion but I don't realistically see us winning again, but you never know.

You might not have much faith in computer modelling but at least it's unbiased... and this guy reckons we've got about a 78% chance of staying up.  He also ranks us as the worst team in League Two...

[tweet]985231481206386690[/tweet]

Quoted from mike502

You might not have much faith in computer modelling but at least it's unbiased... and this guy reckons we've got about a 78% chance of staying up.  He also ranks us as the worst team in League Two...

[tweet]985231481206386690[/tweet]

I don't take issue with either of his statements

I think we're inclined to predict the worse case scenario, and believe Barnet will get 7 points. However, stats tell us that this is actually unlikely. They do have an easier run in on paper, but they failed to beat a town team today who for half the game were probably the worst opponents they'll play all season. If Barnet get a result against Newport, I'll admittedly get more twitchy, but it's going to take an impressive effort for them to turn this around.

These are the bookies' odds converted into implied probabilities

Chesterfield 91%
Barnet 85%
Grimsby 26%
FGR 8%
Port Vale 2%
Morecambe 2%

Scary to think our odds are worse than Russian Roulette  

Quoted from GrimRob

These are the bookies' odds converted into implied probabilities

Chesterfield 91%
Barnet 85%
Grimsby 26%
FGR 8%
Port Vale 2%
Morecambe 2%

Scary to think our odds are worse than Russian Roulette  

Do they base that on the first half or second half of today's game?

Quoted from HertsGTFC

So in two weeks we've seen the bottom 3 based upon what I have seen Chesterfield will go down and possibly take us with them when the capitulate on the last day at Barnet.

I know we have a 5 point cushion but I don't realistically see us winning again, but you never know.

I also don't see us getting another win Herts .......maybe we can scrape a couple of draws and escape the drop.

A potential saving grace could be that Forest Green will probably be safe before the last game of the season should we need a result there.

Quoted from Mariner93er

I think we're inclined to predict the worse case scenario, and believe Barnet will get 7 points. However, stats tell us that this is actually unlikely. They do have an easier run in on paper, but they failed to beat a town team today who for half the game were probably the worst opponents they'll play all season. If Barnet get a result against Newport, I'll admittedly get more twitchy, but it's going to take an impressive effort for them to turn this around.

Amond to end his goal drought against Barnet calling it now

Quoted from WHYWONTYOULETMESIGNUP

Amond to end his goal drought against Barnet calling it now

Goal drought? He scored today.

Or are you saying he's never scored against Barnet?

Someone on here may know or can work it out. When is the earliest safety is guaranteed.

If chesterfield lose Tuesday and Saturday, Barnet lose Saturday and we somehow get a win at Swindon then we are safe? Highly unlikely but that’s the earliest we can be safe I think

If results had stayed like the scores around 3.30 yesterday then we were all but there.

Now I think we need at least 2 points ideally 3 to be safe.

I can’t see us winning any of the games left but maybe scrape a couple of draws.

I think we're in a better position than we think. Even if we were to lose every game, Barnet and chesterfield would still need to win a couple of games, something they haven't done all season. And there is no denying we are more competitive now under jolley, barring the Lincoln game and Coventry second half. It only takes on result for us, it takes 3 for them.

Still looks like it wil rest on the FGR game, bearing in mind we have the worst goal difference.

Problem is that you can't completely rely on previous form as an indication of what is likely to occur at this point of the season. Pretty much every game played so far was competitive with teams either fighting for safety or to try and get into promotion/play-off spots. The last few games are dead rubbers for some teams and you can expect them to put in half-arsed performances as they are thinking about the summer holidays and the sand between their toes. We, on the other hand, have games against two teams still pushing for promotion and another against one battling relegation.

Past form might indicate it is unlikely that Barnet can win 7 or more points, but the opposition might well roll over for them, especially if Chesterfield are dead and buried by the final game of the season.

I don't buy the idea that teams will offer no resistance because they've got nothing to play for. Newport beat a play off contenders despite nothing to play for, Morecambe got a draw at home to a decent Carlisle team despite essentially being safe. Teams won't just bend over for Barnet.

Newport still have a chance, albeit a slim one, of getting into the playoffs themselves. They have plenty to play for at Barnet next week.

Quoted from EY Mariner

Newport still have a chance, albeit a slim one, of getting into the playoffs themselves. They have plenty to play for at Barnet next week.

If a 50% of that Newport team turn up against Barnet that played spurs,Leeds earlier in the cup they will beat Barnet comfortabley ..go on podge lad

Quoted from Mariner93er

I don't buy the idea that teams will offer no resistance because they've got nothing to play for. Newport beat a play off contenders despite nothing to play for, Morecambe got a draw at home to a decent Carlisle team despite essentially being safe. Teams won't just bend over for Barnet.

I agree. Some of these teams will have players who are playing for contract renewals especially those fringe players who are given an opportunity in a no-consequence game at the end of the season.

I think we're going to need a win against Swindon or Notts County, as 2 points might not be enough, as I can see Barnet getting 4 points out of their next 2 games, and their goal difference is better.....hopefully we'll be safe by then, but on current form it looks like we might need to get something from the Forest Green game.

Such fine lines, as I see Morecambe are 40-1( who have 2 more points) to get relegated and we are 3-1. A win yesterday and we would have been about 25-1. Let's hope Morecambe lose their next two games, and then they may need a result against Barnet to be safe.

One more point will be enough I think ( hope )

Barnet might get 2 pts before the Chesterfield game,

Chesterfield might get 4 points before the Barnet game,

So if we are on 43 points neither of them could reach us.

Its going to be close so can we manage a win just one win.

I believe that 44 points will be enough to stay up.

We need to find a couple of draws or one win from our remaining games to get over the line.

Of course, mathematically speaking 44 points doesn’t guarantee anything but I’d be mega surprised if one of Chesterfield or Barnet started showing championship form.

At the end of the day.......our fate is now back in our own hands.

Looking at the fixtures.... worst case scenario is that we have to win at FGR to stay up but it might well not get to that.

After yesterday Barnet fans do not think they will survive. Many seem resigned to the drop.

Allen's record is played 5 wind 2 and drawn one so they can very easily pickup the points requiref

Quoted from oldun

After yesterday Barnet fans do not think they will survive. Many seem resigned to the drop.

It doesn't matter what the fans think - they were better than us for large parts of the game yesterday and they know if they can get a win against Newport they could catch us if we slip up. Looking at us yesterday they will know we are more likely to lose all our remaining games than win any - as our record of 1 win in 22 games shows.

Next weekend is obviously crucial - a bad weekend for us could see them breathing down our necks with a better goal difference. It doesn't bear thinking about so I just hope we can get something from Swindon.  

Some Barnet fans who were at the game seem to think it unlikely we will get any more points and looking at our record since MJ arrived we have only scored 2 goals in the 7 games from open play if you ignore the goal from a throw in against Port Vale and looking at the goals we conceded yesterday our defence is just as crap as it has been all season.

Newport won't be pushed over by Barnet, it is an easy win for Newport.

Then Barnet must beat Morecambe, even a draw wouldn't be enough.

Newport is a key game, I hope they can turn them over for us. Hopefully Podge is paying attention and get lots of love from the town on Twitter!

A Newport win would put us in a near home and dry scenario. Pray to the football Gods

Quoted from arryarryarry

Some Barnet fans who were at the game seem to think it unlikely we will get any more points and looking at our record since MJ arrived we have only scored 2 goals in the 7 games from open play if you ignore the goal from a throw in against Port Vale and looking at the goals we conceded yesterday our defence is just as crap as it has been all season.

None of us know what will happen and we are guessing, but I think our position is looking very difficult. Barnet have improved considerably at home and have 2 home games left, one against a Chesterfield team that may be already down.They have a goalscorer and could conceivably get 7 points. We need a win, but where is it coming from?

Both Town and Barnet are poor, but our record of one win in 22 games and their recent improvement means it could well go down to the last game. I have said for a couple of months I think we would fall into the bottom 2 on the last day, I am praying I am wrong but we are slowly edging that way.

If we could get a win at Swindon our troubles would be over but I just cannot see it. It is going to be a very very long week on the football front.

Quoted from lew chaterleys lover

None of us know what will happen and we are guessing, but I think our position is looking very difficult. Barnet have improved considerably at home and have 2 home games left, one against a Chesterfield team that may be already down.They have a goalscorer and could conceivably get 7 points. We need a win, but where is it coming from?

Both Town and Barnet are poor, but our record of one win in 22 games and their recent improvement means it could well go down to the last game. I have said for a couple of months I think we would fall into the bottom 2 on the last day, I am praying I am wrong but we are slowly edging that way.

If we could get a win at Swindon our troubles would be over but I just cannot see it. It is going to be a very very long week on the football front.

I can't disagree with any of that.

It'll be a rotten day at FGR if they send us down.

It's not out of the question (although probably unlikely) we could go into the last day of the season looking like this:

21 FGR 43
22 Grimsby 43
23 Barnet 40
24 Chesterfield 40

Presumably if that happened, we and FGR would have the sense to play out the stalest of 0-0 draws?

Quoted from mike502

It's not out of the question (although probably unlikely) we could go into the last day of the season looking like this:

21 FGR 43
22 Grimsby 43
23 Barnet 40
24 Chesterfield 40

Presumably if that happened, we and FGR would have the sense to play out the stalest of 0-0 draws?

Gawd that would give the football league a headache. If that particular set of circumstances happened it would be very awkward.  

I did think of the scenario where us and FGR play out a testimonial paced draw to both be safe, but i don't think it will come to that. I think they will be safe and will want to relegate us if they have the chance. I'm dreading going there needing something, but i have been thinking for months it is going to happen that way, and it still looks on.

Quoted from mike502

It's not out of the question (although probably unlikely) we could go into the last day of the season looking like this:

21 FGR 43
22 Grimsby 43
23 Barnet 40
24 Chesterfield 40

Presumably if that happened, we and FGR would have the sense to play out the stalest of 0-0 draws?

We had this discussion on Saturday.  But how tempting would it be in those circumstances for us to score a late late winner.  A mitch rose penalty preferably.  Score and it sends fgr down?!?!  

Quoted from ex-merseymariner

We had this discussion on Saturday.  But how tempting would it be in those circumstances for us to score a late late winner.  A mitch rose penalty preferably.  Score and it sends fgr down?!?!  

They will be thinking the same in reverse of course so better all round to play out a 0-0 draw!

It's a horribly dangerous game, trying to play out a draw in those circumstances - particularly because there can't be seen to be any pre-arrangement between the two sides as that's pretty much match fixing.

It'd have to be an 'unsaid' agreement, and that's flimsy as hell. All it takes is for one player to suddenly stick it in the net near the end because he's on a handsome win/goal bonus.

The players need to bust a gut now, because the nerves they might feel this Saturday will be unlike those they'll feel in a few weeks' time if they don't get the job done before then.

Also, if I were MJ, I'd find all those YouTube videos of the fans going mental at Wembley when Arnold scored, and use that to inspire the players. That's how much being in the FL means to the fans - now go out there and be a hero!

It's all very uncertain and made more so given the quirk of how many of the bottom teams still have to play each other.

I agree with what has been said that fans of each club probably tend to take a gloomier view of their own situation.

Ultimately, it boils down to this for me.  Would I swop our present situation with Barnet or Chesterfield?  No way.

It's ours to lose.  

The best way to play for a draw is to make sure it's not 0-0. A 1-1 draw doesn't look half as suspicious  

Quoted from GrimRob

The best way to play for a draw is to make sure it's not 0-0. A 1-1 draw doesn't look half as suspicious  

As long as they let us score first, I'd be happy with that arrangement...

It’s all opinions and hope but for what it’s worth I think we are safe . Really can’t see Barnet getting 2 wins and Chesterfield definitely won’t

Quoted from mike502

It's not out of the question (although probably unlikely) we could go into the last day of the season looking like this:

21 FGR 43
22 Grimsby 43
23 Barnet 40
24 Chesterfield 40

Presumably if that happened, we and FGR would have the sense to play out the stalest of 0-0 draws?

I'm sure that FGR would be doing their damnedest to send us down if they had the chance.

Realistically will we get anything at Swindon?
I hope so, but probably not ( we will be there)
Same prospect against Notts C (a lot better side than Barnet)
I think we will go into game against villagers needing to match Barnets result against an already relegated Chesterfield, and this I fear greatly
That’s why the sat just gone was such a massive game..
Keep working the players hard MJ
Please let’s see some sort of gameplan forming
Please just keep us the f@@k up MJ
Hadn’t posted after sat as wasn’t sure if the result finished my belief totally or I should have been pleased with a point
Come on Town!!

Not sure why people are so down on our chances of getting points compared to how they think Barnet will fare. Notts County are such a good team that they lost 3-1 to the only side we've managed to beat since December and looked absolutely dreadful in that game. If they're out of the automatic picture by then and rest players, we could potentially get a result.

And Swindon are the team in worst form in the division. They're only seven points ahead of Newport having played two games more and are in much worse form, yet people are seemingly of the opinion that we've no chance of getting anything against them whilst a home win for Barnet against Newport is a foregone conclusion.

Both us and Barnet are rubbish teams which is why we're in the positions we are in. Barnet have won less than one game out of every four so I'd say it's highly unlikely they'll win all three of their remaining fixtures and even reasonably unlikely that they'll win two of their last three. If we can get two points, which is not impossible, then I think we'll be safe.

Prior to the Barnet game, I thought that we needed three points to stay up (just as long as we didn’t lose that match). I still think that 2 points from the remaining three matches will get us over the line.

Take a point away at Swindon every day of the week.

Notts County at home... We can win that.

When it comes to the end of the season, and teams are fighting, results become very unpredictable, and next Saturday will look either very scary, or a lot more positive

Updated league table / fixture list on the first page with tonights result.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/P1NAsCw.png[/img]

We've already got 4 points off Swindon and Notts Co - when Russell Slade was managing us too. Has to be a good chance of at least one more with someone competent at the helm!

Newport are more than capable of beating Barnet, and if they do it's almost over for them.

Two more points may just be enough for us.

Three big ifs, but if we win on Saturday and Barnet and Chesterfield lose we are safe. Much rather be in our shoes.  

As it stands we need 6pts if Barnet and Chesterfield win their remaining games to say up (not risking goal difference)......

So if Barnet & Chesterfield win on Saturday and we lose we will still need 6pts from 2 games
If Barnet lose & Chesterfield Win and we lose we will still need 6pts from 2 games.
If Barnet  win & Chesterfield lose and we lose we will need 5pts from two games (so 2 wins)
If Barnet & Chesterfield both lose and we lose we will need 3pts from two games                  
If Barnet & Chesterfield win on Saturday and we win we will need 3pts from 2 games
If Barnet lose & Chesterfield Win and we win we will need 3pts from 2 games.
If Barnet  win & Chesterfield lose and we win we will need 2pts from two games
If Barnet & Chesterfield both lose and we win we are safe.  

Quoted from Grantham_Mariner

As it stands we need 6pts if Barnet and Chesterfield win their remaining games to say up (not risking goal difference)......

So if Barnet & Chesterfield win on Saturday and we lose we will still need 6pts from 2 games
If Barnet lose & Chesterfield Win and we lose we will still need 6pts from 2 games.
If Barnet  win & Chesterfield lose and we lose we will need 5pts from two games (so 2 wins)
If Barnet & Chesterfield both lose and we lose we will need 3pts from two games                  
If Barnet & Chesterfield win on Saturday and we win we will need 3pts from 2 games
If Barnet lose & Chesterfield Win and we win we will need 3pts from 2 games.
If Barnet  win & Chesterfield lose and we win we will need 2pts from two games
If Barnet & Chesterfield both lose and we win we are safe.  

I think we're going to draw on Saturday so where does that leave us?

Quoted from GrimRob

I think we're going to draw on Saturday so where does that leave us?

Well it would leave me with about an hour working out all combinations of draws. 🤣🤣🤣

Front page updated again. With our win at Swindon and Forest Green slaughtering Chesterfield, they have been all but relegated from the football league, needing to overhaul a 19 point goal difference deficit in three games and Morecambe picking up no points from their last three games.

Port Vale totally safe, so taken their fixtures out.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/3DEVjvn.png[/img]

Interestingly our last 4 games of the season Barnet, Swindon, Notts County & VGR were all played in December in consecutive games, different order mind.

Slade got 10 points from those 4 games... no reason we can't do it again.

Look at the last three match results on the league table  of the teams above us.    Makes Grimsby look  good.
Looks  as though the Manager is doing a good job

Look at the last three match results on the league table  of the teams above us.    Makes Grimsby look  good.
Looks  as though the Manager is doing a good job