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League Two Fixtures Run-in – Bottom Six Teams

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wiggers
April 14, 2018, 9:15pm
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Chesterfield and Morecambe down, you heard it here first
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ginnywings
April 14, 2018, 9:15pm

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Quoted from davmariner


Was a nice little pick-me-up after a depressing evening. Cheers Ginny!


Sometimes, it's good to get another perspective on things.
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horsforthmariner
April 14, 2018, 9:31pm
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I think Barnet needed to beat us to stay up.

If we get no more points (and I don't think that will happen) To overhaul us they have to pick up 5 points. They have won 9 times in 43 games and drawn 10 out of 43 games and lost 24 out of 43 games. This suggests a decent return for them will be 1 win 1 draw and 1 defeat (that's over achieving their average this season by quite a bit, but is what they have achieved from their last 3 games) and that's still not enough.

Of their remaining 3 games they play Newport who had a good win against our next opponents Swindon today. Get a result away at Morcambe who are draw specialists. By the time it gets to Chesterfield it might be all over.

I'm not saying it's all over but were in a much better position than most on here think.
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HertsGTFC
April 14, 2018, 9:49pm

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So in two weeks we've seen the bottom 3 based upon what I have seen Chesterfield will go down and possibly take us with them when the capitulate on the last day at Barnet.

I know we have a 5 point cushion but I don't realistically see us winning again, but you never know.


"Crombie you would have got to that if you weren't such a fat ba%$@rd" - George Kerr, inspiration from the dug out 70s style  
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mike502
April 14, 2018, 9:57pm
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You might not have much faith in computer modelling but at least it's unbiased... and this guy reckons we've got about a 78% chance of staying up.  He also ranks us as the worst team in League Two...

[tweet]985231481206386690[/tweet]
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horsforthmariner
April 14, 2018, 10:01pm
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Quoted from mike502
You might not have much faith in computer modelling but at least it's unbiased... and this guy reckons we've got about a 78% chance of staying up.  He also ranks us as the worst team in League Two...

[tweet]985231481206386690[/tweet]


I don't take issue with either of his statements
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Mariner93er
April 14, 2018, 10:54pm
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I think we're inclined to predict the worse case scenario, and believe Barnet will get 7 points. However, stats tell us that this is actually unlikely. They do have an easier run in on paper, but they failed to beat a town team today who for half the game were probably the worst opponents they'll play all season. If Barnet get a result against Newport, I'll admittedly get more twitchy, but it's going to take an impressive effort for them to turn this around.
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GrimRob
April 14, 2018, 11:24pm

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These are the bookies' odds converted into implied probabilities

Chesterfield 91%
Barnet 85%
Grimsby 26%
FGR 8%
Port Vale 2%
Morecambe 2%

Scary to think our odds are worse than Russian Roulette  


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
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HertsGTFC
April 14, 2018, 11:28pm

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Quoted from GrimRob
These are the bookies' odds converted into implied probabilities

Chesterfield 91%
Barnet 85%
Grimsby 26%
FGR 8%
Port Vale 2%
Morecambe 2%

Scary to think our odds are worse than Russian Roulette  


Do they base that on the first half or second half of today's game?


"Crombie you would have got to that if you weren't such a fat ba%$@rd" - George Kerr, inspiration from the dug out 70s style  
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promotion plaice
April 14, 2018, 11:30pm

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Quoted from HertsGTFC
So in two weeks we've seen the bottom 3 based upon what I have seen Chesterfield will go down and possibly take us with them when the capitulate on the last day at Barnet.

I know we have a 5 point cushion but I don't realistically see us winning again, but you never know.


I also don't see us getting another win Herts .......maybe we can scrape a couple of draws and escape the drop.


When Leeds trainer Les Cocker was once told Norman Hunter had broken a leg, he asked: “Whose is it?”
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