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Grim74
November 24, 2017, 5:27pm
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Quoted from Maringer
It's a failure of a budget from a failure of a chancellor.

We're in a position where a serious stimulus of the economy is required (just look at the dismal forecasts for the economy and the comments from the OBR and IFS, for instance) but instead we've got Box Office Phil tinkering around the edges, with a headline policy which will just give more money to home owners selling to inflate housing prices even further at the same time that the BoE raises interest rates! Utter idiocy all around.


I wouldn't fret to much on these forecasts going by their track record you may as well predict the weather in 5 years times. As for the stamp duty I'm a bit conflicted here as I thinks it's great for first time buyers in a small northern town like ours but will do nothing for the immigrant swamped City's and may even push up the prices. I see Labour have now gone quite on this after there automatic thoughtless rant it can only mean it's policy they actually agree with.


Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. Promise a man someone else's fish and he votes Labour.
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Maringer
November 24, 2017, 6:39pm
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Cutting stamp duty for first time buyers was a particularly stupid idea because exactly the same policy was tried in the past, without success, under Alistair Darling back in 2010. As we actually have data available from that period, we know that the evidence indicates that it won't reduce prices so won't make housing more affordable. It's will ultimately end up as a tax giveaway to those selling their homes as, if anything, it is likely to keep the prices higher than they should be.

Murphy has a run down of the figures from the 2010-2012 period when this policy was last in place:

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/11/13/stamp-duty-cuts-for-first-time-buyers-the-evidence/

The OBR has been very bad at forecasting (which is admittedly very difficult), previously being hugely over-optimistic about the future which helped to back up the unrealistic forecasts produced the Treasury. This isn't perhaps too surprising when the OBR is located within the Treasury offices - just how independent is it really going to be? The difference this time is that they've given up on their over-optimistic forecasts about how productivity was somehow going to improve after years and years of being hopelessly wrong on the topic. Hence the sudden change from "The economy will be doing really well next year, honest", to "The economy has been doing crap for years and there is no indication this will change in the future".

The complete economic failure of Tory austerity (which you supported) was backed by the OBR's forecasts, so it seems perverse you're now saying, "Oh, they were always wrong anyway". Pretty much every major economist has been pointing out that austerity would be disastrous for years and this truth is now hitting home. How long before the Tories (and their supporters) admit they got it wrong?

I'm not holding my breath.
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Grim74
November 25, 2017, 12:15pm
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Quoted from Maringer

The complete economic failure of Tory austerity (which you supported) was backed by the OBR's forecasts, so it seems perverse you're now saying, "Oh, they were always wrong anyway". Pretty much every major economist has been pointing out that austerity would be disastrous for years and this truth is now hitting home. How long before the Tories (and their supporters) admit they got it wrong?

I'm not holding my breath.


Income equality at 30yr low
3+million more jobs - 3/4 full time
U.K. Economy growth (better than the economists predicted)
Deficit cut 2/3
Tax cut for 31m people
Record NHS funding
1.8m more good/outstanding school places

I've said before I'm no Tory but the alternative to this would be in the hands of Marxist nut job who couldn't even answer a simple question on how much we spend on debt, he just cannot make the numbers add up he's totally clueless, if it wasn't for the likes of their fascists supports like Momentum the party would be exposed as the deadbeat phoneys they are.


Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. Promise a man someone else's fish and he votes Labour.
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Maringer
December 1, 2017, 12:06am
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Quoted from Grim74


1.   Income equality at 30yr low
2.   3+million more jobs - 3/4 full time
3.  U.K. Economy growth (better than the economists predicted)
4.  Deficit cut 2/3
5.  Tax cut for 31m people
6.  Record NHS funding
7.  1.8m more good/outstanding school places

I've said before I'm no Tory but the alternative to this would be in the hands of Marxist nut job who couldn't even answer a simple question on how much we spend on debt, he just cannot make the numbers add up he's totally clueless, if it wasn't for the likes of their fascists supports like Momentum the party would be exposed as the deadbeat phoneys they are.


Been a bit busy, hence the late reply. I'll go through your points one-by-one:

Point 1:   Income inequality has recently fallen to lower levels than previously, but we still have one of the worst levels outside of the developing world. Increases in those on lower incomes have mostly been driven by the increase in incomes for pensioners which is not a bad thing, until you consider that working households are still worse off than they were before the financial crisis:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/10/uk-inequality-working-people-pensions-ons

Income aside, let's not forget that wealth inequality is accelerating, both inter-generational and as a whole.

Point 2:  The unemployment figures remain a bit of a conundrum, especially when you consider that real wages are still falling. Full unemployment (which is where we are theoretically at) ought to lead to strong wage growth but it's not happening. Quite the opposite, in fact. Underemployment is still high (though falling) so that's not the answer. My guess is that the surge in 'self-employed' workers is one of the causes as the self-employed earn less on average than 20 years ago:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37678065

Plenty of people are 'forced' to be 'self-employed' by the gig economy so this probably helps to explain strong employment figures alongside falls in wages in real terms. The low levels of unemployment are good, but the falls in wages show how weak the economy is once you scratch the surface.

Point 3:  Not sure what you're talking about as regards economic growth being stronger than predicted? The exact opposite is the case as forecasts have just been severely downgraded. Were you not listening the other week to the budget?

https://www.theguardian.com/bu.....xit-productivity-ifs

Point 4:  The deficit has certainly been cut, but at a fraction of the rate that Osborne 'planned' with his economically illiterate austerity policies. Something which Hammond has continued. As I've pointed out on numerous occasions in the past, it's certain that the austerity has not only led to a good deal of misery around the country (public sector pay freezes, lack of required NHS funding and so forth), but it just hasn't worked and we've been left with the weakest recovery from a recession for the best part of 200 years. You don't cut your way out of a slump as it is counter-productive. This is something that the OECD, IMF and even the ECB have now admitted. A bit too late, but there you go.

Point 5:   Raising the tax thresholds is indeed good for many people, but as always, most of the giveaway goes to those who are already well-off. Higher-rate tax payers benefit most, those of medium incomes next and the lowest-paid (the ones who need it most) get pretty much nothing at all from it:

https://www.theguardian.com/po.....st-in-budget-changes

I should also mention that if it is so important to cut the deficit ASAP, why this tax giveaway to the wealthy? Quite literally an example of taking from the poorest (though the benefit cuts earlier this year) to give directly to those better off.

Point 6:   Record NHS funding? Well, if you're looking at basic numbers and completely ignoring the long-term trend, then I suppose you're correct. Here's a quote from the King's Fund which points out the issue succinctly:

Quoted Text
Though funding for the Department of Health continues to grow, the rate of growth has slowed considerably compared to historical trends. The Department of Health budget will grow by 1.1 per cent in real terms between 2009/10 and 2020/21 under current spending plans. This is far below the long-term average increases in health spending of approximately 4 per cent a year (above inflation) since the NHS was established. Under current plans, health spending per person in England will fall in real terms in 2018/19 and 2019/20.


When you've got an ever-aging population such as ours, health costs are going to continue to increase greatly so it's hardly surprising that the NHS is on the brink of a crisis considering the real lack of investment since 2009. Claims that nothing is wrong with our healthcare spending levels are mind-boggling. Anybody who believes this to be true has obviously not been to a doctor's surgery of late or had to visit a hospital.

Point 7:  More pupils in 'Good' or 'Outstanding' schools? Not sure, really. Inspection practices have changed over the years which may have had some effect but could possibly be true because (as somebody who is married to a teacher), the workloads are ever-increasing and it's getting to a level not far off breaking point from what I can see. Put it this way, if these figures paint a true picture, it's miraculous. The pay freeze on teachers (which is to continue) and the hit on their pensions means that they are on average £5,000 per year worse off now than a decade ago (in real terms) and will be another £3,000 per year worse off by 2020. Way to go in rewarding the teachers for their good work, eh? That's austerity for you. As the IFS notes, spending on education is falling steeply:

https://www.ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/fiscal_facts/public_spending_survey/education

Your final comments about McDonnell show you're still missing the bigger picture here. As were those who leapt on him for not coming up with some bullshit figure when challenged. How could he possibly know what future debt interest costs would be in 5 years time? How could anyone? If he'd magicked up a figure out of thin air he'd have been criticised for something or other else. Really rubbish journalism from Neil, which is not surprising.

The point is that long-term gilts are selling at a rate that is effectively interest free so it is simply idiotic not to invest in our ever-crumbling infrastructure at this point in time. The multiplier will be as near as damnit to 1 so any spending will be recouped and it will provide a much-needed boost to the economy, especially with Brexit coming over the horizon. Another succinct article pointing out the idiocy of these particular attacks on McDonnell:

https://www.newstatesman.com/p.....-must-invest-economy

Finally, 'fascists'? You seriously think that a load of Labour Party members (including those of Momentum) are acting like fascists? Don't be so silly.
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Grim74
December 6, 2017, 11:04am
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Quoted from Maringer


Been a bit busy, hence the late reply. I'll go through your points one-by-one:

Point 1:   Income inequality has recently fallen to lower levels than previously, but we still have one of the worst levels outside of the developing world. Increases in those on lower incomes have mostly been driven by the increase in incomes for pensioners which is not a bad thing, until you consider that working households are still worse off than they were before the financial crisis:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/10/uk-inequality-working-people-pensions-ons


At the end of the day these figures can differ depending on what Side of the fence you sit just by changing the calculation will show a positive or not quite as positive but certainly not critical! But figures aside I tend to step outside and see for myself are we really so much worse off?

I've recently been to the USA and Belgium in the last 2 months and I can tell you that I was pleased to get back home because I would struggle to live in these two country's on the food prices alone never mind the household bills, I even went looking for an Aldi whilst in the states but even there was too expensive. Believe me when I say this Country is still relatively cheap to live in if you don't smoke and eat junk food there are some unbelievable bargains to be had I know I'd be simplifying if I said 4 snickers for a quid here yet 1 snicker for 2 euros in Belgium bag of apples here for a quid 5 dollars in the states now that's that's real inequality even the electrical goods this country is so dam cheap compared.

Quoted Text
Point 2:  The unemployment figures remain a bit of a conundrum, especially when you consider that real wages are still falling. Full unemployment (which is where we are theoretically at) ought to lead to strong wage growth but it's not happening. Quite the opposite, in fact. Underemployment is still high (though falling) so that's not the answer. My guess is that the surge in 'self-employed' workers is one of the causes as the self-employed earn less on average than 20 years ago:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37678065


Plenty of people are 'forced' to be 'self-employed' by the gig economy so this probably helps to explain strong employment figures alongside falls in wages in real terms. The low levels of unemployment are good, but the falls in wages show how weak the economy is once you scratch the surface.


I think it's marvellous that we now have a generation working people, gone are the days under the Labour government where you could just choose benefits this can only be a positive to the next generation that see mum and dad going out to earn a living, but you can only criticise which is not surprising absolutely no credit at all eh? I accept wages need to go up faster but it's funny how you haven't mentioned the Eu migrants that are on the record as another reason for suppressing wages especially on the low paid - http://www.migrationobservator.....ects-of-immigration/

Quoted Text
Point 3:  Not sure what you're talking about as regards economic growth being stronger than predicted? The exact opposite is the case as forecasts have just been severely downgraded. Were you not listening the other week to the budget?

https://www.theguardian.com/bu.....xit-productivity-ifs


The UK economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter and this went against the remoaning economists predictions, still sluggish yes but this is because of the constant Brexit fearmongering garbage. They try to bring us down they would love to see us suffering they are just shameless cheerleaders for Brussels but scratch beneath the surface and you will see the great news despite Brexit, the latest being that Britains factories are thriving with growth the highest it has been for years - biggest number of new orders since 1988 and  factory output grows at its fastest rate since 1995 THIS IS GOOD NEWS that the remainers just want to ignore.

Quoted Text
Point 4:  The deficit has certainly been cut, but at a fraction of the rate that Osborne 'planned' with his economically illiterate austerity policies. Something which Hammond has continued. As I've pointed out on numerous occasions in the past, it's certain that the austerity has not only led to a good deal of misery around the country (public sector pay freezes, lack of required NHS funding and so forth), but it just hasn't worked and we've been left with the weakest recovery from a recession for the best part of 200 years. You don't cut your way out of a slump as it is counter-productive. This is something that the OECD, IMF and even the ECB have now admitted. A bit too late, but there you go.


I'm pleased you acknowledge that it's been cut not as much as hoped granted but still interest rates remain low so I'm happy, but let's give some credit this is progress after all even though you don't say so. I don't understand your point as you bemoaned the fact it's only a fraction but at the same time you want clowns in Government who would at least treble the country's debt. -
http://www.cetusnews.com/news/.....tain.B1ehlLIHz-.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new.....bn-debt-biggest-tax/

Quoted Text
Point 5:   Raising the tax thresholds is indeed good for many people, but as always, most of the giveaway goes to those who are already well-off. Higher-rate tax payers benefit most, those of medium incomes next and the lowest-paid (the ones who need it most) get pretty much nothing at all from it:

https://www.theguardian.com/po.....st-in-budget-changes

I should also mention that if it is so important to cut the deficit ASAP, why this tax giveaway to the wealthy? Quite literally an example of taking from the poorest (though the benefit cuts earlier this year) to give directly to those better off.


I wouldn't say someone on £46000 is well off far from it but I do welcome the raising of the tax threshold for millions of us, As for the lowest paid not getting more well your not going to get an argument from me on this one.

Quoted Text
Point 6:   Record NHS funding? Well, if you're looking at basic numbers and completely ignoring the long-term trend, then I suppose you're correct. Here's a quote from the King's Fund which points out the issue succinctly:



When you've got an ever-aging population such as ours, health costs are going to continue to increase greatly so it's hardly surprising that the NHS is on the brink of a crisis considering the real lack of investment since 2009. Claims that nothing is wrong with our healthcare spending levels are mind-boggling. Anybody who believes this to be true has obviously not been to a doctor's surgery of late or had to visit a hospital.


I think you know my take on the NHS by now it's been abused and mismanaged beyond control it's nothing but a busted flush, time to stop throwing money into the NHS black hole and look to adopt successful healthcare systems from other country's.

Quoted Text
Point 7:  More pupils in 'Good' or 'Outstanding' schools? Not sure, really. Inspection practices have changed over the years which may have had some effect but could possibly be true because (as somebody who is married to a teacher), the workloads are ever-increasing and it's getting to a level not far off breaking point from what I can see. Put it this way, if these figures paint a true picture, it's miraculous. The pay freeze on teachers (which is to continue) and the hit on their pensions means that they are on average £5,000 per year worse off now than a decade ago (in real terms) and will be another £3,000 per year worse off by 2020. Way to go in rewarding the teachers for their good work, eh? That's austerity for you. As the IFS notes, spending on education is falling steeply:

https://www.ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/fiscal_facts/public_spending_survey/education


My My you really are a glass half empty kind of person.... your not sure? https://fullfact.org/education/more-pupils-good-or-outstanding-schools/
I think it's great that the inspections focus on the poorly performing schools giving them more opportunity to improve.
As for the public sector pay you won't get any sympathy from me the public sector get paid more than other British workers, and will stand to receive generous pensions compared to the private sector which funny enough is a source of inequality in itself.

Quoted Text
Your final comments about McDonnell show you're still missing the bigger picture here. As were those who leapt on him for not coming up with some bullshit figure when challenged. How could he possibly know what future debt interest costs would be in 5 years time? How could anyone? If he'd magicked up a figure out of thin air he'd have been criticised for something or other else. Really rubbish journalism from Neil, which is not surprising.

The point is that long-term gilts are selling at a rate that is effectively interest free so it is simply idiotic not to invest in our ever-crumbling infrastructure at this point in time. The multiplier will be as near as damnit to 1 so any spending will be recouped and it will provide a much-needed boost to the economy, especially with Brexit coming over the horizon. Another succinct article pointing out the idiocy of these particular attacks on McDonnell:

https://www.newstatesman.com/p.....-must-invest-economy


Have you watched the interview? It was a very simple question about how much interest we pay on the national debt and he couldn't answer! Neil had to tell him! and this came after a previous interview when he got his answer wrong on the question of what the national debt stood at, even after he resorted to google.....bloody scary to even imagine this nutter in charge.

Quoted Text
Finally, 'fascists'? You seriously think that a load of Labour Party members (including those of Momentum) are acting like fascists? Don't be so silly.


Tell that to lifelong Labour supporter and apprentice star Michelle Dewsbury who was bullied and verbally attacked by momentum, for daring to set up her own pollitical party during the last election because she just didn't agree with Corbyn's policies.


Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. Promise a man someone else's fish and he votes Labour.
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