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Save OUR Season

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Civvy at last
November 1, 2015, 5:41pm

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Quoted from GrimRob


I did I have £150 on us at the start of the season to win the league. After our poor start I was offered to cash most of it back at a small profit after about three games so it seemed to good an offer to turn down. Since then I have put relatively small bets on a few other sides, so I have positions on Chetlenham, Eastleigh and Tranmere, plus some of the pre-season bet on us left. I still think Cheltenham are probably the best bet out of the top four favourites, Eastleigh I think are a good outside bet. I don't fancy us at the odds quoted, but I am not a favourite backer by nature I tend to go for outsiders.

I do think though it's a good idea to step back and look at the betting odds for the title before becoming too despondent about the prospects for the season. The bookies look objectively at all 24 clubs and consider lots of different factors when they draw up their books. Supporters look at one team, see all the problems that any side has, and virtually ignore the other 23. Yes I know the price is also market driven but a lot of the serious money probably comes from indiviuals who have also looked objectively at the remainider of the season as a whole. Realistically there's probably a group of about six teams two of who will get promoted and we're one of them.


If I have understood the above, it tells me that you had confidence in Town to win the league before the season started.  After only three games you lost confidence in that bet (correctly it would seem) and cashed in.  You are now betting on other clubs, leaving only a small bet on Town to go up. Yet you still post on here that all is well and use the argument  that the bookies still rate us to back that up. However, after telling the doubters to 'put their money where their mouth is' you would appear to be doing the opposite.  I apologise if I have misunderstood your post, but that's how it appears to me ?? !!


The wife was going away for a girly weekend.
I jokingly remarked  'I don't know whether to spend it watching porn or watching football'
'you may as well spend it watching porn' she replied
That's understanding darling what makes you say that? I asked

She said 'Well you already know how to play football'  
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MuddyWaters
November 1, 2015, 5:49pm
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Quoted from Civvy at last


If I have understood the above, it tells me that you had confidence in Town to win the league before the season started.  After only three games you lost confidence in that bet (correctly it would seem) and cashed in.  You are now betting on other clubs, leaving only a small bet on Town to go up. Yet you still post on here that all is well and use the argument  that the bookies still rate us to back that up. However, after telling the doubters to 'put their money where their mouth is' you would appear to be doing the opposite.  I apologise if I have misunderstood your post, but that's how it appears to me ?? !!


Have you go money on us too Civvy?
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chaos33
November 1, 2015, 5:52pm
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You're completely right of course Civvy.  


"You should do what you love while you can"
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Civvy at last
November 1, 2015, 6:04pm

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Quoted from MuddyWaters


Have you go money on us too Civvy?


Not sure what the question implies ?? But to answer it anyway.

Yes, fortunately it is to go up as opposed to winning the league. So there is still a chance.

I am very much a casual betting man so the bookies normally win I'm afraid.  I'm not savvy enough (or rich enough) to sort out laying it off by betting on other teams.  I don't blame anybody that does though.  But then I'm not on here saying that Town are still in a good position after cancelling a bet on them !!!  However, I've asked the question, Rob has been honest enough to answer it, I really should let it lie.


The wife was going away for a girly weekend.
I jokingly remarked  'I don't know whether to spend it watching porn or watching football'
'you may as well spend it watching porn' she replied
That's understanding darling what makes you say that? I asked

She said 'Well you already know how to play football'  
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grimsby pete
November 1, 2015, 6:54pm

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I agree with Civvy as well.


                             Over 36 years living in Suffolk but always a mariner.
                             68 Years following the Town

                              Life member of Trust

                               First game   April 1955
                               
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ackomariner
November 1, 2015, 8:25pm

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Quoted from Civvy at last


If I have understood the above, it tells me that you had confidence in Town to win the league before the season started.  After only three games you lost confidence in that bet (correctly it would seem) and cashed in.  You are now betting on other clubs, leaving only a small bet on Town to go up. Yet you still post on here that all is well and use the argument  that the bookies still rate us to back that up. However, after telling the doubters to 'put their money where their mouth is' you would appear to be doing the opposite.  I apologise if I have misunderstood your post, but that's how it appears to me ?? !!


No surprise here really as he bet on us to lose last year if my memory serves me correct  


UTM
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GrimRob
November 1, 2015, 10:42pm

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Quoted from Civvy at last


If I have understood the above, it tells me that you had confidence in Town to win the league before the season started.  After only three games you lost confidence in that bet (correctly it would seem) and cashed in.  You are now betting on other clubs, leaving only a small bet on Town to go up. Yet you still post on here that all is well and use the argument  that the bookies still rate us to back that up. However, after telling the doubters to 'put their money where their mouth is' you would appear to be doing the opposite.  I apologise if I have misunderstood your post, but that's how it appears to me ?? !!


Yes you are quite right there is a contradiction but there are two principles at stake. Essentially I am making a point that the most likely league table after 46 games can be determined by looking at the bookies odds to win it not by the current table. That is in response to the point that the OP made that the season is almost over.

Like anyone else I don't always agree with the bookies odds and that is my second principle. That doen't mean to say I think the Town price is way too short, I think there is more value in the other clubs in the betting market. I think there are probably around six clubs in with a serious shout two of whom will go up, so we have a 1 in 3 chance of getting promoted by either route. We're in with a shout but right now Eastleigh are 25/1 and that looks a bargain to me compared to our price!

In the summer there is no doubt the Town price was very generous at the start of the pre-season so I put £150 on. After 3 poor results we were still shorter odds than when I backed us in the first place so it seemed crazy not to cash in. I have less than £50 in total on now on this market so don't have a very big position on anyone but I am sure I will be putting more bets on at some stage. I will certainly back us again if I think we're good value in the market. But if I really thought we had no chance like some seem to then I'd have a lot more money on the other clubs.

Hope that explains it!

PS after writing all that I just put another tenner on Eastleigh lol


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

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ginnywings
November 2, 2015, 12:04am

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Quoted from GrimRob


Yes you are quite right there is a contradiction but there are two principles at stake. Essentially I am making a point that the most likely league table after 46 games can be determined by looking at the bookies odds to win it not by the current table. That is in response to the point that the OP made that the season is almost over.

Like anyone else I don't always agree with the bookies odds and that is my second principle. That doen't mean to say I think the Town price is way too short, I think there is more value in the other clubs in the betting market. I think there are probably around six clubs in with a serious shout two of whom will go up, so we have a 1 in 3 chance of getting promoted by either route. We're in with a shout but right now Eastleigh are 25/1 and that looks a bargain to me compared to our price!

In the summer there is no doubt the Town price was very generous at the start of the pre-season so I put £150 on. After 3 poor results we were still shorter odds than when I backed us in the first place so it seemed crazy not to cash in. I have less than £50 in total on now on this market so don't have a very big position on anyone but I am sure I will be putting more bets on at some stage. I will certainly back us again if I think we're good value in the market. But if I really thought we had no chance like some seem to then I'd have a lot more money on the other clubs.

Hope that explains it!

PS after writing all that I just put another tenner on Eastleigh lol


All that explains is that you like to hedge your bets, just like Hurst does. Bookies odds mean fook all to me and many like me.
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arryarryarry
November 2, 2015, 4:16am
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Quoted from EY Mariner


The season is 46 games, not 19. We have just lost for the first time in 13 games. That is not a crisis. It is a setback, no more, no less. If that makes me some sort of "happy clapper" or whatever term of abuse you or others wish to use, that's fine. I just don't believe in making knee-jerk reactions on the basis of one result, as that is clearly what you are doing no matter how much you try to protest otherwise.


I don't know your medical history but have you just come out of a 5 year coma?
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Rik e B
November 2, 2015, 5:57am

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I hate using it but apt here.

'Lol'
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