General Election Predictions

Quoted from Maringer

Erm, no. You get whoever wins the most votes and your votes counts for just as much as anyone else's.

Some for of proportional representation would be better than first past the post and would improve politics, IMO, as politicians would then have to actually work together to try and improve things instead of coming in and changing everything around every ten years or so. Unfortunately, this was too easily rejected by voters in this country when given the choice so we're stuck with what we've got for the foreseeable future.

Like you, I always feel sorry for the Germans and all those Nordic folk who have to put up with coalition governments because of PR. Their countries are in tatters. Talk about Broken Britain.  

Quoted from Southwark Mariner

Fitch Ratings gave out many warnings about Icelandic Banks...the same banks our Glorious local authority had deposited in.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/mar/26/uk-local-government-icelandic-deposits

Ah. The people who said you can trust all those sub-prime mortgage backed securities. The wisdom of the free market eh?

* other credit ratings agencies who will tell you that 2 and 2 is 10 are also available.

PS, Maringer for Chancellor!

Regarding Milliband,

Labour only had two brothers to choose from,

AND

They chose the wrong one.

Depends on your viewpoint, I suppose.

David M was basically Blair-lite and 'New Labour' to the core whereas the Unions (I assume) helped Ed get elected as he was considered to be a bit more left-wing, though not by overly much. After a quiet first few years (which still baffles me), it does appear that the two Eds are moving marginally to the left and have finally begun to call out some of the Tory lies, but even they are still planning further austerity when the economy is nowhere near recovered from the last recession. Bad macroeconomics, but not as bad as dreadful as that of Osborne and Co.

You're probably correct that in the modern era, David would have been the better choice as he's more photogenic and doesn't have a slight speech impediment in the way that Ed does (both of the Eds, in fact!). There probably wouldn't have been too much difference between the policies of the two but David studied political science, not economics, so you know you would get more of the Blairite shtick leaning to the right of centre.

I've always been a Tory supporter and have even been a local election candidate (not in North East Lincs!), and have friends in all parties, so I'll try to be objective:

On the prediction, I think it's likely we'll have a minority government, with me slightly leaning towards the Tories being the largest party but a lot will depend on how UKIP and the SNP do.  Locally, UKIP will run Labour close in Great Grimsby but ultimately lose (I would vote Labour if I lived in Grimsby as the UKIP candidate is a racist nutter) and Martin Vickers will hang on in Cleethorpes but have a majority in the hundreds rather than thousands.

I'm not going to get into all the trading of insults and "my party's better than yours" stuff, but I do think this election campaign is going to be one of the dirtiest and most infantile I can remember.  With dodgy statistics and weasel-language, with nonentities talking down to the country; it's going to be a long four months.  

It's a shame really, because there are some good MPs on all sides:  Tom Watson, Simon Danczuk, Dan Jarvis and Frank Field are all decent Labour MPs who are far too independently-minded for Miliband's cabinet which seems to be of the left rather than the centre.  Similarly on the Coalition side, Sarah Wollaston, Zac Goldsmith, Steve Baker and Julian Huppert are all far better than many of the stuffed suits in the cabinet.

If we do see a minority government (of whatever stripe), it's unlikely to last too long. Read some stats the other day which surprised me in that we have actually had ruling coalitions for 26 years out of the past century (including 18 years in peace time) whereas minority governments have only lasted a total of 6 years in this period. I suppose that a formal coalition gives more stability than informal alliances which would have to be worked out by minority governments.

One thing I would say, is that I wonder if our political and media system these days actually allows a successful coalition to take place - the Tories and LibDems have been briefing against each other in the press practically from the point the coalition was formed and now they are both scrabbling to claim credit for anything positive which has occurred over the past 5 years (which ain't much!). Hardly the basis for the formation of trust required to govern successfully.

I expect it's always been the same with political parties in that some MPs, regardless of their political affiliation, are capable and diligent workers for their consitutencies and I think Vickers seems a decent bloke (I live in Cleethorpes). However, despite this, I'd never vote for him because his presence in Westminster would be an enabler for Cameron and Osborne to continue their damage. I'm not sure I'd classify Zac Goldsmith as a good example, however. He's known for his love of everything 'green' and is an environmental campaigner which is laudable. However, his vast wealth came from his inheritance (from his complete excrement of a father) and was registered as a non-dom for his entire life until he had to drop the status when he stood for parliament. During this time, he would have avoided paying millions in taxes. Quite legal, but is this really the sort of person we want in parliament? Apparently, it also looks as though he fiddled his election expenditure to 'avoid' going over the limit:

http://www.channel4.com/news/questions-over-zac-goldsmiths-election-expenses

Reading that report, it looks to me as though he used his wealth to gain an unfair advantage in the last election. Hardly laudable.

Anyway, this aside, when you consider that there are plenty of decent and capable backbench MPs, it makes it all the more depressing to think that you end up with incompetent idealogues such as Gove, Duncan Smith and Lansley running major departments in Westminter. Here's the latest report on the member-up which was the top-down reorganisation of the NHS under Lansley:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-31145600

Note that the Conservative Election manifesto in 2010 didn't even mention any plans for such a major reorganisation, which makes me wonder what they might do if they got into power again this time? If you don't tell voters about major policies which you are planning, how can you possibly be trusted again?

I suppose that many of the people at the top of the political parties find themselves there as much by their ambition and connections as for any competence or ability. You could probably pick a more capable cabinet from the backbenches of either of the major parties than you actually get in the real world!

As an aside, I got doorstepped by my local Labour candidate the other weekend, (relatively) early on the Saturday morning - first time I've been doorstepped that I can recall in living in my house for 12 years. He seemed a decent chap and we had a brief chat - he works in financial/economic publishing and like me, he couldn't understand why the two Eds hadn't pointed out Osborne's various lies about the economy! Seems a decent chap and (like Vickers), it is good to see he has lived locally for many years. From my viewpoint, it was also good to see him putting the legwork in as well, though the Labour Party don't really have much choice as they only have a third of the money to spend on the election that the Conservatives do, thanks to their wealthy buddies in the city. This is the sort of point that the two Eds should have been hammering away at for the past year or two, but it seems they are only now making an effort to do so. Almost as though they've been asleep at the wheel.

http://www.independent.co.uk/n.....-party-10024548.html

I hope and pray who ever gets in regardless of manner between Labour and Conservatives that none of them do a deal with the SNP.

I've just been watching on the news the Labour party supporters who look like they're in cahoots with the South Yorkshire police  trying to silence UKIP in Rotherham.
When will they learn eh ?  

In cahoots with the police? Are you sure it wasn't immigrants?  

Anyway, I see that Mr. Toad blames an evil alliance of the SWP, Greens and former Labour councillors for this protest which was apparently funded by some union or other. Just an everyday protest, from what I've seen. It wasn't violent or anything so why all the moaning?

The police should just have let him have his walkabout. Now that would have made amusing viewing, Farage roaming the streets followed by a noisy group of protestors!