General Election Predictions

I think the reasons for today's result can be summed up like this.

1. There was no appetite for change. You can talk about swallowing 'Tory bullshit' as much as you like but for the man on the Clapham omnibus life may not necessarily be a bowl of cherries but neither is it sackcloth and ashes. When Tony Blair came to power in 97, the momentum for that began back in 1994. Come the election the drive for change was well established - this time there was no such desire and when that happens, people tend to stick with the status quo.

2. Neither party had an outstanding campaign but Labour's was devoid of ideas. As a lifelong Labour voter I struggled to identify with anything the party was shouting about. How that sounded to floating voters is anyone's guess. It appealed to the hard core but to no-one else. We can see that because Labour not only failed to gain seats, it actually lost them.

3. Ed Miliband. I'm afraid it IS about personality and not just about policies. That is nothing new, it goes back to the days of Wilson and Heath. You buy with your eyes and with confidence in the person selling to you and I'm afraid Miliband did not look or sound like a potential prime minister. It was a bad choice by the party, he was never going to do it. You know it, I know it, we all know it.

4. Trust. Whether you like it or not Britain did rack up more governmental debt than any other G8 nation when Labour were last in power and when the global financial crisis hit us, it hit us harder than any other developed nation. As uncomfortable as it may sound Labour needs to apologise for this. Whether you think Labour were at fault or not, it still needs to say sorry because it is now seared in the public consciousness. Sometimes in life you have to apologise for things that aren't neccessarily your fault but until the party does it will remain a very toxic issue for them. In order to move on you sometimes have to make short-term sacrifices for long-term gain.

Local Election results, incase anyones not seen them >> [url=http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Local-election-2015-Live-results-North-East/story-26458018-detail/story.html]http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Local-election-2015-Live-results-North-East/story-26458018-detail/story.html[/url]

No overall control.

Quoted Text

The composition of the 42 seats at the authority is now as follows:

Labour - 20
Conservative - 10
Ukip - 9
Liberal Democrat - 3

Ahead of today's count, the composition of the 42 seats on the council was as follows:
Labour - 19     
Conservative - 10     
Ukip - 8     
Liberal Democrat - 3
Independent Labour - 1     
Vacant - 1     

Don' t normally read the non footy board and even less comment on political matters but there were some very opinionated comments earlier.

The bottom line for me is that I don't think people fell for 'Tory bullshit' more like they felt they had been better off in the last few years than the previous 5 or 6.

A staunch labourite who is a production worker for Youngs, told me quietly ( because he would get lynched by workmates) that he had done well under the coalition, had more money In his. Pocket and that was what mattered to him. I know many others who expressed similar views.

That isn't political scaremongering influenced by the so called Tory press, it was the honest feelings of a working man. I think THAT is why the blue flag is flying higher ( coupled with the fact that in my opinion Miliband has to be the poorest leader of a party for many decades)

Quoted from kingofthekippers

4. Trust. Whether you like it or not Britain did rack up more governmental debt than any other G8 nation when Labour were last in power and when the global financial crisis hit us, it hit us harder than any other developed nation. As uncomfortable as it may sound Labour needs to apologise for this. Whether you think Labour were at fault or not, it still needs to say sorry because it is now seared in the public consciousness. Sometimes in life you have to apologise for things that aren't neccessarily your fault but until the party does it will remain a very toxic issue for them. In order to move on you sometimes have to make short-term sacrifices for long-term gain.

Utter, complete and total nonsense. Where do you get your information?

Here's a chart showing historical G7 debt:

[img]http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/12/26/opinion/122611krugman1/122611krugman1-blog480.jpg[/img]

Our national debt was at a lower level than ALL of the other countries in the G7 at the point that the recession hit. Also, don't just look at the general level of debt, look at the gradient. The Brown government wasn't increasing debt at some sort of ludicrous level through ridiculous spending as the Tories and the right-wing press have claimed. Easily disprovable. Look at the figures instead of have a 'gut' feeling. The failure of the two Eds to point out this claptrap still amazes me, mind, so they certainly failed badly in their duties there.

Following the credit crunch and banking crisis in 2007/2008, we entered the deepest recession for years (due to the reliance of our economy on the inflated finance sector) so debt clearly increased greatly after that point. Because that's what happens in a recession. Up until then? Well, debt as percentage of GDP was lower in 2008 when the recession hit than when Labour took power in 1997 and that's after Brown's "spending spree" on Hospitals, Schools infrastructure and the like. (Note: Criticism of Brown's government for some PFI expenditure on Hospitals and so forth is well-placed. By using PFI, they kept some expenditure off the government books to the detriment of future finances. We're only talking a very small amount in proportion to GDP, however).

In 2007, that well-known spendthrift, George Osborne (who has borrowed more money in the past 5 years that every Labour government ever, combined), promised to match Labour's proposed spending levels at the time. Now, why would he have done that if Brown and co were on some sort of unaffordable mind-boggling spending spree?

This is the myth that everyone just 'knows'. Other than the wasteful PFI stuff (which is still tiny in proportion to the rest of the debt), there is not a shred of truth in this story.

Sorry, I'll have to respond to the other points in a different post.

Quoted from kingofthekippers

I think the reasons for today's result can be summed up like this.

1. There was no appetite for change. You can talk about swallowing 'Tory bullshit' as much as you like but for the man on the Clapham omnibus life may not necessarily be a bowl of cherries but neither is it sackcloth and ashes. When Tony Blair came to power in 97, the momentum for that began back in 1994. Come the election the drive for change was well established - this time there was no such desire and when that happens, people tend to stick with the status quo.

2. Neither party had an outstanding campaign but Labour's was devoid of ideas. As a lifelong Labour voter I struggled to identify with anything the party was shouting about. How that sounded to floating voters is anyone's guess. It appealed to the hard core but to no-one else. We can see that because Labour not only failed to gain seats, it actually lost them.

3. Ed Miliband. I'm afraid it IS about personality and not just about policies. That is nothing new, it goes back to the days of Wilson and Heath. You buy with your eyes and with confidence in the person selling to you and I'm afraid Miliband did not look or sound like a potential prime minister. It was a bad choice by the party, he was never going to do it. You know it, I know it, we all know it.

I certainly don't disagree much with you about point 3, though I'm sad that perceived 'personality' is of such import these days. Miliband came across pretty well over the last few months of the campaign, I thought, but then you have to ask whta was he doing for the previous 4 years? Personally, Cameron turns my stomach. He's a PR man and I simply don't believe a word he says, especially when it is clear he means so little of what he says. A good PR speech for him today saying how he wants to govern for the nation and bring unity, but this is pretty ludicrous when he's spent the past few months demonising the Scots. He'll say anything to get into power and, it seems, a lot of people believe it. Remember when he became leader of the Tories and promised to end "Punch and Judy" politics? Just last week he was claiming that Miliband was trying to 'con' his way into power. The man's been worse than anybody at sneering about and mocking his opponents than any politician I can remember. He's an odious presence.

For your point 2, I don't disagree that they were lackadaisical with their presentation. Poor PR, I suppose. The Conservatives could get away with promising unfunded tax cuts and uncalculated benefit cuts (though I have no idea why people would accept this) due to their forceful yet false narrative that everything wrong in the economy was Labour's fault. It's nonsense, of course, but it was a poor campaign.

Point 1, I disagree with because I think Osborne was incredibly lucky that the economy was slightly on the up from the start of the year. This was absolutely nothing to do with any of his policies (though he still claimed credit!?!) but was because inflation had dropped down to zero pretty much entirely to the drop in oil prices at the same time that very moderate growth returned in 2013. Believe me, Osborne had nothing to do with any drop in oil prices. There is plenty of research that shows voters don't think so much about the past when an election is coming around but how they have done (very) recently and how they expect to do in the near future. Osborne has overseen the weakest recovery from a major recession in over a century due in great part to his policies yet for some reason, lots of people seem to have forgotten the pay cuts and pay freezes alongside inflation of 2 to 4% which is what we have seen for most of the parliament! Put it this way, when Osborne took control of the economy in 2010, he inherited an annual growth was around 2%. In 2011 it was 0.8%. In 2012 it was 0.2%. At that point, he reduced his austerity cuts (which is why he has failed to cut the deficit as originally planned) and this led to a minor recovery but he has never admitted he had deviated from the much mooted 'Plan A', and we've seen a slow recovery since. Annual growth last quarter? 0.3% which isn't far from recession again. By every single measure, Osborne has failed as a chancellor but, thanks to the drop in oil prices and inflation, everyone is feeling slightly better off so he's benefitted.

If people want to vote Tory because they like the policies, I've got not problems whatsoever, though I will almost certainly disagree with their choices. My problems arise because they have voted for a fiction that bears little resemblance to reality.

I can't deny I've felt very tense today because I am seriously, seriously worried what Osborne will do to the economy over the next 5 years. He's been very lucky to be chancellor in a relatively stable period (inherited a mild recovery but has encountered Eurozone worries). The next 5 years looks likely to be much more challenging, especially as his policies are inflating the housing bubble once again, and I fear what he will do if things go really mammaries up in Europe and the Union, as seems quite possible.

Quoted from BIGChris

A staunch labourite who is a production worker for Youngs, told me quietly ( because he would get lynched by workmates) that he had done well under the coalition, had more money In his. Pocket and that was what mattered to him. I know many others who expressed similar views.

That isn't political scaremongering influenced by the so called Tory press, it was the honest feelings of a working man. I think THAT is why the blue flag is flying higher ( coupled with the fact that in my opinion Miliband has to be the poorest leader of a party for many decades)

He might have had more money in his pocket over the past year or so. Bet he didn't before then when inflation was 3-4%,oil prices were high and wage growth was non-existent:

http://www.theguardian.com/bus.....-major-g20-countries

As I note in my previous post above this one, when elections come around, people tend to forget the harder times of a couple of years back and instead remember when things got a bit better.

Bear in mind, real wages still aren't back to 2008 levels, something pretty much unheard of 7 years after any recession over the past century (and possibly earlier ones as well).

Quoted from fishheadphil

No not at all, I'm a proud Englishman but to the loony left labour racists this makes me a raging racist? So I'm glad they've been turned over big time, I doubt we will see a labour government for at least 15 - 20 years. When people who have been democratically elected are getting surrounded by the fascist left like farage
and his children did then some things wrong with British people I think? The left seem to think anyone who has a different view to their warped Marxist ideology is somehow a paid up member of the waffen ss !   So yeah the left is finished now so good riddance. The icing on the cake was seeing the traitor Galloway getting it.....priceless.

Sit tight and the guys in white coats will be with you very soon.

Quoted from Maringer

He might have had more money in his pocket over the past year or so. Bet he didn't before then when inflation was 3-4%,oil prices were high and wage growth was non-existent:

http://www.theguardian.com/bus.....-major-g20-countries

As I note in my previous post above this one, when elections come around, people tend to forget the harder times of a couple of years back and instead remember when things got a bit better.

Bear in mind, real wages still aren't back to 2008 levels, something pretty much unheard of 7 years after any recession over the past century (and possibly earlier ones as well).

I have to say my income has risen over recent years (not to the levels of 10 yrs + ago) and the result shows that enough people feel more comfortable with  their lot to elect a government with a majority. I didnt think that would happen.

Clearly you arent happy with the result but  some are 'content' .

Over recent years our profitability has increased considerably, we are employing more people and many have enjoyed decent income increases to give them more money. As contractors our lads have private medical insurance and pensions. THEY feel things are looking up, working hard and getting rewards for their efforts

Well, there are always some who do well, even during and in the immediate aftermath of a recession. However, the majority of people haven't seen any recovery in living standards before the last year or so and this recent improvement is down to the drop in oil prices and inflation which is nothing to do with Osborne's handling of the economy. That's sheer chance which has worked out for him well, but the myth that the economy has been 'fixed' by the government's actions just isn't true.

The recovery from the last recession has been hit badly by Osborne's austerity plan which was just economically incompetent. Making cuts in spending during a recovery goes against all economic theory and as I note in post 204, this cost a lot of growth. This lost growth would have been worth thousands (and possibly tens of thousands) of pounds per person in the economy. This is compounded by the fact that the Eurozone has also been engaging in similar austerity so our main trading partners are struggling as well.

My worry is not just that Osborne's planned but uncosted cuts will cause hardship for the poorest in society (which they will), it is that his cuts will lead us back towards stagnation or even recession. Despite all evidence to the contrary, and there is a lot, Osborne still believes in the 'trickle down' crap that tax cuts for the wealthy and businesses lead to a general improvement in the economy and everyone's lot. That is why he wants to cut £12 billion of benefits which go to the poorest in our society whilst at the same time giving the wealthy £8 billion in tax cuts. This will inevitably lead to greater poverty and social ills whilst the wealthiest get even richer. Economic inequality is bad in a society and the rich are only going to get richer as the poorest get poorer.

It doesn't seem to have occurred to Osborne that the poorest spend absolutely all of their income. Cutting the money to these people not only takes money out of their pockets and makes life much harder for them, it takes it out of the economy as a whole. On the other hand, much of the money given to the wealthy through tax cuts will end up as savings or even being spent overseas which doesn't help our economy whatsoever.

My spending is your earnings.

Savings are a good thing when the economy is doing well as you want people to have money to fall back on in hard times so they are less reliant on the state. However, when you're in a weak recovery following a deep recession, savings are absolutely the last thing you want - this is why interest rates have been almost at zero for years, to try and stop people saving money and instead spend to put their money back into the economy.

Anyway, I've spent a lot of time writing about bad economics in the lead up to and the aftermath of the election and I need to do something better with my time so I'll give it a rest soon.

People have voted and many are obviously happy to have elected a Conservative government. I've just tried to show that, if you thought the Conservative government had done well with the economy over the past 5 years, you are misinformed. The economy has done OK - just - despite many of their policies, not because of them. Note that pretty much all of the parties have bought into the austerity nonsense so all deserved criticism for their planned policies, though the Conservatives were worse than Labour and the LibDems. If you think the previous Labour government was especially profligate and this led to the recession or meant we struggled to deal with its effects, you are also misinformed as I have pointed out in earlier posts.

Ultimately, a lot of people will have voted for the Conservatives based on bad information which is very frustrating.

Hope I'm wrong about the way the economy will now head under Osborne, but I'm afraid I don't think I am. In a year or two (or three), if we find ourselves back in recession, just remember what I've said when you hear Osborne blaming external conditions for the tough times we are facing.

You've made some superb arguments in these posts mate. I share your fears and concerns and most of all, your frustration.

I fear that, before long, we'll see the end of the union, a forced withdrawal from Europe and a demolished public sector, decimated by cuts that take us beyond the current 1950's size equivalent. With another 5 years of the Tories, ordinary British people and Britain as an entity is in the sh1t.