General Election Predictions

Quoted from Maringer

Tories plus LibDems aren't likely to be enough to form a coalition. Whether the addition of the DUP and UKIP wingnuts will be enough to form a majority remains in doubt.

Unfortunately, it looks as though the dreadful dishonest and negative campaigning by the Tories is beginning to bear fruit as current polling seems to indicate they will now win the most seats. The propaganda assault by the right-wing dominated media is obviously working which isn't surprising when you consider they have been slinging scare-mongering headlines about Labour (mostly complete nonsense, of course) every day for months. A pity that the BBC just toes the line set by these newspapers rather than carrying out the duties for which it exists and actually reporting impartially. No surprise, really, when you consider that the head of BBC news is a former editor of The Times so has kissed the ring of Murdoch. Nick Robinson, political editor, was head of the Young Conservatives at one stage and Peston's reportage seems to be taken directly from whatever his friends in the City tell him. He even hinted that the UK might become like Greece in the event of another financial crisis the other day which is just utter nonsense!

It's pretty obvious that Cameron and Co will do and say anything to get back into power so expect them to continue to scaremonger with nonsense about the SNP. I think this brings about the likelihood of Scottish independence within the next 5 years or so very much to the fore. Amazing, really, when you consider how much panic there was about the potential for independence last year and now, just a few months later, it looks like they really don't give a excrement.

You're seeing the kind of media bias and dreadful politicking in this election now that we were subjected to for over a year with the Independence Referendum in Scotland. Only difference now is that it was mainly at Labour's behest in Scotland, where now the boot is on the other foot. I told many folk involved with the Labour Party that it would come back to bite them on the bum, and so it has. They were also warned that the type of negative media they were using in Scotland would be used against them in 2015, but they were so arrogant it was unbelievable.

Of course, things have now changed completely and we are seeing Labour in it's death throes in it's current format in Scotland. Something will arise from the ashes, am sure of that, but it will have to compete with the SNP not the Tories to try and win voters over, and that's when things will get really fruity up here, methinks!

Today, I see on the BBC News, the pathetic excuse for a politician that is Clegg, saying that he would not be part of any kind of set up with Labour if the SNP were any way involved. Well buggermegently, there's a surprise, a politician like him saying he'd have nothing to do with a party that is taking a principled stand over austerity - it's hardly surprising, eh? A bendy politician who craves power at any expense, who I so dearly hope loses his Sheffield Hallam seat, that would be a Portillo moment all over again. The dangerous thing he's doing though is stoking English nationalism at the expense of the whole Scottish nation. Better Together? That's turned out to be the biggest con trick of all time, only better together when we are subjects of Westminster not people who question it's legitimacy.

Am fairly ambivalent about the result to be honest. Would hate to see the Tories back in power because I know who will suffer, again, if they do get back in. On the other hand, you have to accept the democratic will of the people. If they do get back in then withdrawal from the EU will undoubtedly follow, and were that to be the case Scotland will achieve independence by default. If Labour do get back, without a realignment from the bottom up, it will still be very much "as you were" with the wholly unregulated capitalist system we live under.

Quoted from Maringer

UKIP and Labour are at opposite ends of the political scale. UKIP are mostly made up of disgruntled Tories who want to be further to the right. Labour are a centre-left party. If you wouldn't vote for the Tories due to their policies, the only possible reason for voting for UKIP is if you wanted the UK out of Europe.

Pretty much everyone agrees an exit from the EU would be an incredibly risky proposition with no guarantees we'd be able to keep access to the market. Norway is often used as an example of what we could do, but UKIP seem to disregard the fact that if we left we'd still have to pay billions to the EU for this market access (and follow EU employment law, as do the Norwegians) without having any say in the running of it!

This! This is a massively overlooked fact. Norway has to comply with a lot of EU Regs as part of the "free trade" deal is has with the EU. I believe Switzerland does too.

I did say a while back that there was just as much chance of a Tory-SNP coalition as a Labour-SNP one - when Miliband came out and ruled it out.

The media inc the BBC keep reporting the same claims made by the Tories over and over again.

I wouldn't trust the SNP much more than the Conservatives. The SNP only discovered it was a left of centre party when it realised it was the only way to beat Labour in Scotland.  For Labour a coalition with the SNP would be it's own death knell because it would struggle ever to beat the Tories in England. But for the Tories giving SNP what they want would help bring about a near permanent advantage for themselves in a UK without Scotland.

Never trust a nationalist (of any type). Stupid 19th century idea.

Hi Monkey, here's my take on your wishes:

• personal responsibility - nothing inherently conservative about this. All political persuasions expect you to do the right thing. Go to Scandinavia and it's clear that you are expected to do your bit, despite them having strong welfare support systems. In Soviet Russia if you didn't do your bit you weren't exactly given an easy ride! NEUTRAL
  equality of opportunity (irrespective of if you're called Tarquin or not) - more of a Lib Dem / New Labour theme. Tories claim to believe this but won't take any action to level the playing field. LAB/LIB DEM
  a smaller state sector focused on core services (but without being able to adequately define them) - TORY
  a genuine safety net for the most vulnerable in society - all parties (it's probably a question of definition of most vulnerable and how good the net should be) Let's split the difference and say LIB DEM
  a more efficient NHS with the focus on doctors and nurses not administrators - no party. Tories massively increased the amount of "admin" in the 90s with their internal market (and same in education with breaking up of local authority control). Lab had their league tables and carried on with Tory policies. NEUTRAL
  lower taxation - for who? Lib Dems have probably done the most for PAYE earners raising tax threshold
  thriving business environment - who doesn't want that? LIB DEM
  membership of the EU (albeit hopefully a reformed EU) - if you mean having the ability to restrict immigration from other EU countries I suppose the Tories are most likely to get this (though probably at the expense of an exit from the union). TORY
  proper apprenticeships where young people can become masters of their craft - much like the Premier League, why would companies pay to train talent in the basics when they can import the finished article? Probably only Labour would have the will to actually do something positive about this. LAB
  Oh and sausage rolls, I love sausage rolls! - The Butcher and Bakers Union are likely to get you this!
  
  

So the final league table is (3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for loss/neutral):

Lib Dem - 7
Tory - 6
Neutral - 6
Lab - 4

Sorry, but Lib Dems are closest for you!

| heard the BBC mention on Breakfast news a letter to the Torygraph from small businesses singing the praises of D&G's plan...not quite what it seems apparently

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDjmB_cWMAAk4rG.png:large

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03281/Small_Business_Let_3281571a.pdf

Well, it is exactly what it seems. Another Conservative-organised bit of PR (with another free front-page advertisement provided by the Dreary Torygraph), which is utterly nonsensical in any case. Is it any surprise that they could find 5,000 small businesses run by Conservative Party supporters (you needed to be a member of the Conservative web site to read the original appeal from Brady) backing the Conservatives?

What about the other 99.9% of small business owners? Literally 99.9% - there are over 5 million small businesses in the UK. Utterly pointless.

The issue here is that the BBC aren't reporting it as PR fluff. This morning, for example, BBC Breakfast just reported it as if it was some kind of meaningful event with absolutely no commentary on it at all. Shockingly bad 'journalism' on show there and the BBC web site has barely noted that the whole thing has been organised by the Tories themselves.

Personally, I like Frankie Boyle's suggestion: "I'd like to see the Tories try to get 100 nurses to sign a letter".  

Ten days campaigning left and in Grimsby I get the feeling that the campaign is hardening into a straight fight between Labour and UKIP. For two days now nobody on the doorstep has mentioned any other of the parties as their voting intention. I think there will be a huge amount of tactical voting one way or the other which makes it very difficult to call....

Quoted from KingstonMariner

This! This is a massively overlooked fact. Norway has to comply with a lot of EU Regs as part of the "free trade" deal is has with the EU. I believe Switzerland does too.

Try telling it to UKIPpers on the doorstep. All they appear to be worried about is the mass immigration that has affected Grimsby. One woman today described Ayling as "The Wicked Witch of the North" but still said she was voting for her...

I suppose that pointing out we haven't had mass immigration into this area wouldn't be worth the effort?

Quoted from Maringer

I suppose that pointing out we haven't had mass immigration into this area wouldn't be worth the effort?

We have the info at our fingertips but telling them Ayling was "The baby eating bishop of Bath and Wells" (C) Blackadder. wouldn't make any difference!