|
GrimRob |
|
Moderator
Posts: 12,630
Posts Per Day: 2.12
Reputation: 69.92%
Rep Score: +76 / -34
Approval: +13,343
Gold Stars: 113
|
Me and my two lads have a six selection accumulator every week, We have backed Town to win on occasions and lost. We have backed Town to draw on occasions and lost. We have never backed Town to lose and never would. We feel it's morally and principally wrong to. We want Town to win every game they play.
UTM
I must be immoral then. Betting on your team to lose is like an insurance bet, someone who I used to work with was a season ticket holder at a PL club and he did it most games. But if I think a bet is good value (and I have mathematical models to calculate what the odds "should" be for every British game, it is not normally my own judgement) then I will go with it. The day England lost to Croatia and failed to qualify for Euro 2008 I had £85 on Croatia to win, I was at Wembley and I still wanted England to win. I won £500 which at the time I think was my biggest ever win on a single match, but I was still gutted. It did make me feel a bit better on the tube going back though. For the record my model said Dartford had a 29% chance of winning, the bookies odds implied a 21% chance of winning, that's why I bet on it. I also bet on Altrincham which my model said was 15% the bookies said was 11%. So I expected to lose because all the odds are well under 50%, but on average I will win if my odds are more accurate than the betting market. That's what value betting is.
|
| 'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all. ~ Alfred Lord Tennyson
|
|
|
|
|
TheRonRaffertyFanClub |
|
Posts: 7,638
Posts Per Day: 1.35
Reputation: 79.65%
Rep Score: +43 / -11
Location: Norfolk
Approval: +8,658
Gold Stars: 23
|
He scored, who the intercourse cares, the fact that we have not spent to find him a decent partner is the issue. Pittman has the ability but was always a fitness concern, if we had the budget to pay a decent fee for a striker we would be right up there. The budget is competitive for the play offs but is not for a title winning squad, we are short of where we need to be but a bit more investment in the squad at the start of the season would have seen us mount more of a challenge. I still fancy us for the play offs but I can't see why PH is getting stick about not getting a striker when for me if quality money was made available for a quality striker then I'm sure we would have no trouble finding one.
Can't agree with you on that. I have a theory that the reason Hurst can't sign a striker is that it is so well known they would only get a game if LJL is out for some reason. Otherwise they will be like Oates, one game and then bench warming.
|
| “If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.” ― John Stuart Mill, On Liberty." |
|
Logged |
|
|
|
|
gtfc98 |
|
Whiskey Drinker
Posts: 4,364
Posts Per Day: 0.74
Reputation: 69.6%
Rep Score: +45 / -21
Location: The Wild West
Approval: +3,038
Gold Stars: 65
|
How many sitters has hannah missed this season? A lot.
|
| No longer Sick of the BlueSquare |
|
|
|
|
lew chaterleys lover |
|
Whiskey Drinker
Posts: 4,944
Posts Per Day: 1.07
Reputation: 75.9%
Rep Score: +30 / -10
Approval: +10,547
Gold Stars: 231
|
I must be immoral then. Betting on your team to lose is like an insurance bet, someone who I used to work with was a season ticket holder at a PL club and he did it most games. But if I think a bet is good value (and I have mathematical models to calculate what the odds "should" be for every British game, it is not normally my own judgement) then I will go with it. The day England lost to Croatia and failed to qualify for Euro 2008 I had £85 on Croatia to win, I was at Wembley and I still wanted England to win. I won £500 which at the time I think was my biggest ever win on a single match, but I was still gutted. It did make me feel a bit better on the tube going back though.
For the record my model said Dartford had a 29% chance of winning, the bookies odds implied a 21% chance of winning, that's why I bet on it. I also bet on Altrincham which my model said was 15% the bookies said was 11%. So I expected to lose because all the odds are well under 50%, but on average I will win if my odds are more accurate than the betting market. That's what value betting is.
I think the rest of us will go with our hearts and will never ever, under any circumstances bet on Town to lose.
|
|
Logged |
|
|
|
|
Abdul19 |
|
Season Ticket Holder
Posts: 20,369
Posts Per Day: 3.42
Reputation: 73.77%
Rep Score: +71 / -26
Location: Scarborough
Approval: +17,449
Gold Stars: 214
|
For the record my model said Dartford had a 29% chance of winning, the bookies odds implied a 21% chance of winning, that's why I bet on it. I also bet on Altrincham which my model said was 15% the bookies said was 11%. So I expected to lose because all the odds are well under 50%, but on average I will win if my odds are more accurate than the betting market. That's what value betting is.
Exactly Rob. Same with horses - beat the SP most of the time and you'll win money over time. It's merely numbers on a screen, nothing to do with morals imo!
|
| |
|
Logged |
|
|
|
|
Lincoln Mariner 56 |
|
Brandy Drinker
Posts: 2,748
Posts Per Day: 0.60
Reputation: 83.82%
Rep Score: +23 / -4
Approval: +7,512
Gold Stars: 64
|
Can't agree with you on that. I have a theory that the reason Hurst can't sign a striker is that it is so well known they would only get a game if LJL is out for some reason. Otherwise they will be like Oates, one game and then bench warming.
Another fact in relation to the signing of Oates, who clearly has potential, but he is also not match fit so we have in fact brought someone in who cannot play a full 90 minutes. Neither will he get fit now he only plays for ten minute cameos. Hurst just keeps on making error after error when it comes to strikers and the selection of our midfield which seemed to function really well with Clay, Paddy & Brown but why stick with something that works.
|
|
|
|
|
Grimal |
|
Whiskey Drinker
Posts: 3,377
Posts Per Day: 0.90
Reputation: 84.91%
Rep Score: +20 / -3
Approval: +2,850
Gold Stars: 8
|
What puzzles me is the way he struck that penalty was 1st class,
BUT
When having a shot on goal in normal play he always seems to mishit it.
Could be a simple explanation for that Pete, when you take a penalty the ball isn't moving and when it's open play it is moving.
|
|
|
|
|
chaos33 |
|
Barley Wine Drinker
Posts: 11,532
Posts Per Day: 2.58
Reputation: 67.78%
Rep Score: +66 / -33
Location: The mountains
Approval: +17,786
Gold Stars: 349
|
Another fact in relation to the signing of Oates, who clearly has potential, but he is also not match fit so we have in fact brought someone in who cannot play a full 90 minutes. Neither will he get fit now he only plays for ten minute cameos. Hurst just keeps on making error after error when it comes to strikers and the selection of our midfield which seemed to function really well with Clay, Paddy & Brown but why stick with something that works.
Totally agree. Key points.
|
| "You should do what you love while you can" |
|
|
|
|
MarinerWY |
|
Fine Wine Drinker
Posts: 1,091
Posts Per Day: 0.18
Reputation: 72.78%
Rep Score: +11 / -5
Approval: +1,943
Gold Stars: 45
|
Bit harsh to have a go at Rob for betting against Town. I'm not a betting person myself, but quite a few mates bet, and some of them bet against their own team as an insurance bet - if their team loses, perhaps it helps to a small extent after the game that whilst you're in the pub and drunk off about another loss, at least the beers that you're gettin in are from some winnings and not from your wages.
Also, if you're betting, it's the numbers that matter, not sure there's much morality issues within this context.
Having said that I couldn't personally ask for or write Dartford 1 Grimsby 0 on a betting slip, it would feel a bit weird for me. But that's me personally. There are more important things and relevent things to debate on than "i am the more moral supporter than you".
|
|
Logged |
|
|
|
|
tashee69 |
|
Cocktail Drinker
Posts: 1,742
Posts Per Day: 0.32
Reputation: 85.78%
Rep Score: +28 / -4
Approval: +966
Gold Stars: 23
|
30 goals in 8 years is a bit misleading when a lot of those came from off the bench and him not playing as a striker. How many has he got this season now?
Considering he's just turned 25 in May it goes to show how young he was when he got in the first team.
|
| Baldrick ! The only impression you can do is that of a man with no talent !! GTFC team 09/10 - Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick. |
|
Logged |
|
|
|
|