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GrimRob
October 4, 2014, 8:29pm

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Quoted from mariner tommy


Me and my two lads have a six selection accumulator every week, We have backed Town to win on occasions and lost.
We have backed Town to draw on occasions and lost.
We have never backed Town to lose and never would.
We feel it's morally and principally wrong to. We want Town to win every game they play.

UTM


I must be immoral then. Betting on your team to lose is like an insurance bet, someone who I used to work with was a season ticket holder at a PL club and he did it most games. But if I think a bet is good value (and I have mathematical models to calculate what the odds "should" be for every British game, it is not normally my own judgement) then I will go with it. The day England lost to Croatia and failed to qualify for Euro 2008 I had £85 on Croatia to win, I was at Wembley  and I still wanted England to win. I won £500 which at the time I think was my biggest ever win on a single match, but I was still gutted. It did make me feel a bit better on the tube going back though.

For the record my model said Dartford had a 29% chance of winning, the bookies odds implied a 21% chance of winning, that's why I bet on it. I also bet on Altrincham which my model said was 15% the bookies said was 11%. So I expected to lose because all the odds are well under 50%, but on average I will win if my odds are more accurate than the betting market. That's what value betting is.


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

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TheRonRaffertyFanClub
October 4, 2014, 8:31pm
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Quoted from headingly_mariner
He scored, who the intercourse cares, the fact that we have not spent to find him a decent partner is the issue. Pittman has the ability but was always a fitness concern, if we had the budget to pay a decent fee for a striker we would be right up there. The budget is competitive for the play offs but is not for a title winning squad, we are short of where we need to be but a bit more investment in the squad at the start of the season would have seen us mount more of a challenge. I still fancy us for the play offs but I can't see why PH is getting stick about not getting a striker when for me if quality money was made available for a quality striker then I'm sure we would have no trouble finding one.  



Can't agree with you on that. I have a theory that the reason Hurst can't sign a striker is that it is so well known they would only get a game if LJL is out for some reason. Otherwise they will be like Oates, one game and then bench warming.


“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.”
― John Stuart Mill, On Liberty."
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gtfc98
October 4, 2014, 8:37pm
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How many sitters has hannah missed this season? A lot.


No longer Sick of the BlueSquare  
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lew chaterleys lover
October 4, 2014, 8:39pm
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Quoted from GrimRob


I must be immoral then. Betting on your team to lose is like an insurance bet, someone who I used to work with was a season ticket holder at a PL club and he did it most games. But if I think a bet is good value (and I have mathematical models to calculate what the odds "should" be for every British game, it is not normally my own judgement) then I will go with it. The day England lost to Croatia and failed to qualify for Euro 2008 I had £85 on Croatia to win, I was at Wembley  and I still wanted England to win. I won £500 which at the time I think was my biggest ever win on a single match, but I was still gutted. It did make me feel a bit better on the tube going back though.

For the record my model said Dartford had a 29% chance of winning, the bookies odds implied a 21% chance of winning, that's why I bet on it. I also bet on Altrincham which my model said was 15% the bookies said was 11%. So I expected to lose because all the odds are well under 50%, but on average I will win if my odds are more accurate than the betting market. That's what value betting is.

I think the rest of us will go with our hearts and will never ever, under any circumstances bet on Town to lose.
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Abdul19
October 4, 2014, 8:40pm

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Quoted from GrimRob




For the record my model said Dartford had a 29% chance of winning, the bookies odds implied a 21% chance of winning, that's why I bet on it. I also bet on Altrincham which my model said was 15% the bookies said was 11%. So I expected to lose because all the odds are well under 50%, but on average I will win if my odds are more accurate than the betting market. That's what value betting is.


Exactly Rob. Same with horses - beat the SP most of the time and you'll win money over time. It's merely numbers on a screen, nothing to do with morals imo!


JESUS AT THE CENTRE
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Lincoln Mariner 56
October 4, 2014, 8:43pm
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Can't agree with you on that. I have a theory that the reason Hurst can't sign a striker is that it is so well known they would only get a game if LJL is out for some reason. Otherwise they will be like Oates, one game and then bench warming.


Another fact in relation to the signing of Oates, who clearly has potential, but he is also not match fit so we have in fact brought someone in who cannot play a full 90 minutes. Neither will he get fit now he only plays for ten minute cameos. Hurst just keeps on making error after error when it comes to strikers and the selection of our midfield which seemed to function really well with Clay, Paddy & Brown but why stick with something that works.
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Grimal
October 4, 2014, 8:48pm
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Quoted from grimsby pete
What puzzles me is the way he struck that penalty was 1st class,

BUT

When having a shot on goal in normal play he always seems to mishit it.


Could be a simple explanation for that Pete, when you take a penalty the ball isn't moving and when it's open play it is moving.

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chaos33
October 4, 2014, 8:52pm
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Quoted from Lincoln Mariner 56


Another fact in relation to the signing of Oates, who clearly has potential, but he is also not match fit so we have in fact brought someone in who cannot play a full 90 minutes. Neither will he get fit now he only plays for ten minute cameos. Hurst just keeps on making error after error when it comes to strikers and the selection of our midfield which seemed to function really well with Clay, Paddy & Brown but why stick with something that works.


Totally agree. Key points.


"You should do what you love while you can"
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MarinerWY
October 4, 2014, 8:59pm

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Bit harsh to have a go at Rob for betting against Town. I'm not a betting person myself, but quite a few mates bet, and some of them bet against their own team as an insurance bet - if their team loses, perhaps it helps to a small extent after the game that whilst you're in the pub and drunk off about another loss, at least the beers that you're gettin in are from some winnings and not from your wages.

Also, if you're betting, it's the numbers that matter, not sure there's much morality issues within this context.

Having said that I couldn't personally ask for or write Dartford 1 Grimsby 0 on a betting slip, it would feel a bit weird for me. But that's me personally. There are more important things and relevent things to debate on than "i am the more moral supporter than you".
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tashee69
October 4, 2014, 9:14pm

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Quoted from immariner
30 goals in 8 years is a bit misleading when a lot of those came from off the bench and him not playing as a striker. How many has he got this season now?


Considering he's just turned 25 in May it goes to show how young he was when he got in the first team.


Baldrick ! The only impression you can do is that of a man with no talent !!
GTFC team 09/10 - Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick, Baldrick.
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