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Quoted from promotion plaice

It pains me to say it but things don't seem to have got much better since Fenty.

We were having this discussion in the car on the way home. It depends how you define “better”. I believe the club are safer with 1878 at the helm. But in all honesty I can’t see them putting in the kinds of money that is required to enable us to challenge anywhere near the top of this league. The team needs a complete overhaul. With all the money that needs spending on BP in the close season I doubt Artell will have much of a war chest available. I’m still not convinced Artell is the right man either. So although safer I’m not convinced we are “better”.

What upsets me is that the conference teas and also the team in the 2nd half of last season had in my opinion so much more desire, determination, togherness and quality. Players like Crocombe, Fox Taylor, Mcatee, Waterfall, Emanuel, Smith, Lloyd , Orsi, ect. We just have gone backwards so much . I know players age and some where only here on loan. However we shouldn't have a better squad in the conference compared to league 2. Even if we stay up what happens next season another season of being in the bottom quarter of league 2?

Quoted from Ashby mariner

What upsets me is that the conference teas and also the team in the 2nd half of last season had in my opinion so much more desire, determination, togherness and quality. Players like Crocombe, Fox Taylor, Mcatee, Waterfall, Emanuel, Smith, Lloyd , Orsi, ect. We just have gone backwards so much . I know players age and some where only here on loan. However we shouldn't have a better squad in the conference compared to league 2. Even if we stay up what happens next season another season of being in the bottom quarter of league 2?

It's a repeat of the first time we got out of non league.

The team that got us promoted was dismantled; we had a reasonably good first season back in League 2, then we went downhill, resulting in our eventual relegation back to non league.

If we manage to cling on to our league status this season, what's to say we won't continue to struggle?

We just don't seem to have the money or pulling power to recruit decent standard players, which is why we constantly find ourselves in trouble at the wrong end of the table.

Watching last night again reiterated how very poor most of our players are and the season can be summed up by our failure to beat Harrogate yet again.

Have we ever beaten them?

Unless there is big investment in the playing side it will be the same again next season no matter what league we are in . And at 72 i think i will be selective in the games i go to. After going since the late 50`s i think its time to do other things with my money unless take a big up turn in playing standards.

Can’t say I disagree with many points made here.

We seem to be delivering similar levels of achievement and paying a lot more staff in the process.

I heard some guy on Radio hull saying we’ve got a mid table budget I find that hard to believe looking at the players or perhaps they’ve all got smart agents

Quoted from ginnywings

Watching last night again reiterated how very poor most of our players are and the season can be summed up by our failure to beat Harrogate yet again.

Have we ever beaten them?

1 point from 18 in league games: https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.sd?team_id=1148&team2_id=1222&teamTabs=h2h

3 more points from 4 games should do it. Sutton would need to have a 12 goal swing and get 7 points from their final 3 games, or to win all 3 of them.

3 points makes it impossible for FGR to catch us. It could get twitchy this weekend if Sutton beat Harrogate and we lose to Crewe; especially if Colchester get a win away at Crawley too.

The worst case likely scenario is we have to beat Swindon to secure safety - I would genuinely have taken that a month or 2 ago . Hopefully it's wrapped up before then, likely 2 or 3 points from the next 2 would do it especially if Colchester don't win on Saturday as then we would go into the game against them knowing aslong as we don't lose they won't realistically be able to catch us .

The absolute guarantee of mathematical safety is 48 points, Sutton can get that and FGR can only get 45. Realistically neither of them are going to get there.

If FGR lose on Saturday they can't get to where we are now. I think one win for us will be enough as that means Sutton won't be able to reach us if they lose on Saturday. Even if Sutton beat Harrogate they then have to play Crawley and MK Dons - right now they need 2 wins to go above us.

And this is before goal difference becomes a factor and our extra game.

(some time ago I suggested that 42 points might be enough and it still might).

I cant see FGR catching us on 43. Lose on Saturday and we don't have to even think about them

So the real question is how many points are Sutton going to get.
Harrogate away for them is tough - Harrogate have to win otherwise their slim play off chances are gone. But it's probably they're best chance of three points.
Crawley at home is a really difficult one for them - Crawley will be desperate for three points and are in good form.
But their hardest game is MK Dons - if MK Dons need a win for automatic on the final day then they are basically stuffed. But if MK Dons can't get promoted automatically , they will probably rest players and you can see Sutton getting something. At the moment I want MK Dons and Mansfield really evenly matched so it's a final day shootout. Obviously with Sutton winning 4 out of the last five they are in form but Im really doubtful they'll manage more than 4 points. It wouldn't surprise me if they top out at 40.

Colchester are five behind us (but not with a worse G/D) Ive seen them as the insurance for a couple of

I've always seen Colchester as our insurance. Saturday will be hard for them away at Crawley. But the big game is the next Tuesday. If they are going to catch us you feel they have to beat us. If we can hold onto a draw I can't really see them catching us. I think this is a must not lose rather than must win game.

After that they've got their best chance of 3 points away at Notts County. Their final two games at home are an advantage but they will be up against a very in-form Donny (who somehow maybe just might have a chance at the play offs) and Crewe who I suspect will need three points to assure a play off place.

If we don't lose to them then I don't see how they overhaul us. If we do lose that one they probably will. Colchester are the hardest to predict. I can see them getting 9 more points but I can also see them getting maybe 3 more points.

On to us. Realistically, I cant see us getting anything against Crewe on Saturday or against Crawley on the final day of the season. If we get a point against Colchester or a win against Swindon (both of which should be very achievable) I think thats basically it. The danger is that we lost 5 in a row - it;s the type of intercourse up only Grimsby could do to be honest. But in reality I just can't see it. My guess is that we end up on 47 Points and well safe.

This thread is making me breathe into a paper bag.

Here’s a quick look at what each of our relegation rivals need to do to surpass us, without us winning another point:

FGR (3 games left) - 3 wins, or 2 wins 1 draw + 12GD swing

Sutton (3 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 2 draws, or 1 win 1 draw + 7GD swing

Colchester (5 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 3 draws, or 1 win 2 draws + 2GD swing

Fixtures remaining:

FGR
Wrexham (a)
Morecambe (a)
Notts County (h)

Sutton
Harrogate (a)
Crawley (h)
MK Dons (a)

Colchester
Crawley (a)
Town (h)
Notts County (a)
Doncaster (h)
Crewe (h)

—

In a scenario where we fail to pick up another point, there’s a good chance Colchester get past us, by virtue of the fact it means they’ll have beaten us. But then you look at what Forest Green need to do and who they have to play, and their chances of getting beyond us are infinitesimal - defeat on Saturday effectively relegates them, and you’d have to imagine that’s a likely outcome given they play Wrexham away, who have the single best home record in the league. They’re as good as gone.

So then that leaves us with Sutton as the major variable. Short of a sizeable GD swing (which looks unlikely with so few games remaining), they either need to win 2 of their last 3, or go unbeaten whilst picking up a win in the process. They’ve got 2 away games, against Harrogate and MK Dons, the latter of which may still be battling for automatic promotion when they play them on the final day.

There’s a potential fly in the ointment in that MK Dons might be out of the automatic chase by the time they play Sutton, and resting players, but there may still be an element of wanting to finish 4th for the supposed advantage that gives you in the play-offs. Their only home game is against Crawley, who are currently in the final play-off berth and have the 3rd best away record in the league.

Ultimately, Forest Green are gone and Sutton have it all to do. And that’s if we stay as we are in terms of points, with another 4 games to go of our own. Personally, I think the probability of us staying up with our current points total is high, and still think we’ll pick up another point or two (we ought to be beating Swindon at home).

I’m with everyone else who wants this wretched season over, but I’m very confident that it at least ends with a modicum of relief.

It's Sutton's resurgence that's wound me up. Agree FGR are done. There's just something about Sutton, our luck, decisions against us and the way the season has gone generally, that refuses to see logic and won't settle until I see two R's against teams hopefully below us.

When most of this squad has gone and we have brought in at least ten new players who can control a ball pass a ball and show some energy and leadership . Until then we are in Groundhog Day.

Quoted from 140381

It's Sutton's resurgence that's wound me up. Agree FGR are done. There's just something about Sutton, our luck, decisions against us and the way the season has gone generally, that refuses to see logic and won't settle until I see two R's against teams hopefully below us.

Suttons resurgence has largely been against teams in lower mid table and FGR. Whilst they've had some good form, they've lost 22 games this season and we shouldn't make them better than what they are whilst obviously not been oblivious to the risk. Personal feeling - they've had their run. To go above us they effectively will have had to win 6 of their last 8 games this season - that'd be extraordinary.

That also is if we fail to get anymore points. Whilst I do understand and appreciate the worry some have, after we lose we do tend to then think we're not going to get anything else - cast your minds back to Barrow, it was similar then. Then followed 4 points from 6. We've lost 3 from 11. Beaten FGR, Franchise, good away points against very good sides at Wimbledon and Gillingham... I'm confident we can get more points on the board, whether they're actually needed is another debate.

I've used points per game as an indicator elsewhere:

We are still getting more than a point per game while the other 3 are getting less than a point per game. On their current PPG the final points tally would be:

GTFC 47
CUFC 46
SUFC 42
FGR 39

I've done this 3 or 4 times now and it's been very consistent. The only thing that has changed is that Sutton's recent run has made their finishing position look better but still not enough. All of these are rounded up.

And this calculation still suggests that 43 points is enough!

If we do get relegated it would be great bantz by the club to put a (R) next to their name on X (formerly twitter).

Quoted from Mikey_345

Suttons resurgence has largely been against teams in lower mid table and FGR. Whilst they've had some good form, they've lost 22 games this season and we shouldn't make them better than what they are whilst obviously not been oblivious to the risk. Personal feeling - they've had their run. To go above us they effectively will have had to win 6 of their last 8 games this season - that'd be extraordinary.

That also is if we fail to get anymore points. Whilst I do understand and appreciate the worry some have, after we lose we do tend to then think we're not going to get anything else - cast your minds back to Barrow, it was similar then. Then followed 4 points from 6. We've lost 3 from 11. Beaten FGR, Franchise, good away points against very good sides at Wimbledon and Gillingham... I'm confident we can get more points on the board, whether they're actually needed is another debate.

Yep. My personal gut feeling is that Sutton won’t do what they need to do to get beyond our current points total, and I also think we’ll get at least a point against Swindon and possibly another elsewhere. We’ve been tracking around the point per game mark for most of the season.

It could look a lot more precarious this time next week, or be completely over, but from a quick bit of maths this is how each side’s survival chances look according to the odds:

FGR - 1.0%
Sutton - 25.0%
Col U - 77.8%
Town - 95.7%

Sad as it is we find ourselves here, we are in the ascendency of those fighting to stay up.

With two games against sides with nothing to play for, could quite easily see FGR have a late rally again but it won't be enough to catch us.  Unless they beat Wrexham on Saturday they're not our concern.

Sutton have a got a flipping stinker of a run-in.  Harrogate have kept their faint play-off hopes alive by beating us but then it's Crawley and MK Dons.  Crawley will almost certainly still be playing for a play-off stop at that point, I guess it all depends if MK Dons are unable to achieve promotion come the final day or not.  Either way they need 5 from 9 to go above us.  Recent amazing form aside, I don't see them getting 5 points.

That alone sees us safe.  Still with Colchester to play into it.  Making up 5 points on us does make you think the goal difference would go in their favour so they wouldn't need the extra point.  But their run-in isn't easy.  Crawley still with stuff to play for, County away potentially easier but then it's Donny who are absolutely flying and unbelievably in with an outside chance of the play-offs and finishing with Crewe who will probably have their play-off spot sorted.    Is there enough for them to catch us with?  Not sure.  I think we go there next week and probably get a draw, even if they get 3 points from Crawley and we lose to Crewe they'll need two points from the final 2 games to draw level with us.   All of that is assuming we only pick up one point from our last 4 (game against them).   I think we're appalling but I don't think we're ending the season with 4 defeats.  Regardless of what others do, I think we'll pick up enough points to guarantee safety on our own steam.  I just refuse to think that's anything other than a huge disappointment though, but I'll take it.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

3 more points from 4 games should do it. Sutton would need to have a 12 goal swing and get 7 points from their final 3 games, or to win all 3 of them.

3 points makes it impossible for FGR to catch us. It could get twitchy this weekend if Sutton beat Harrogate and we lose to Crewe; especially if Colchester get a win away at Crawley too.

It’s only a 7 goal swing that Sutton need. If it comes down to goal diff it means they are winning games and we are losing and so that swing is far from impossible.

As I have said before, we need to earn our place in L2. That means winning at least one of our remaining games. If we end up with less than 46 points we deserve to go down.

Quoted from promotion plaice

It pains me to say it but things don't seem to have got much better since Fenty.

I've always wondered what people were expecting when Fenty finally moved on.

Quite clearly everyone would have loved some billionaire to come in and then throw whatever was needed to move us forward. How owners pick clubs is a mystery known only to them, but at our level it is far more likely that locality and a connection to the club will be a primary motivator. In that regard, how many ridiculously wealthy people would qualify that criteria? I'm sure Grimsby has a few self-made people who have a few quid behind them, but we currently have two of them.

One of the main reasons people wanted Fenty gone was ambition and some pride in the club. It was stated that although we were never really at risk of going bust due to his financial restraint on the club, he needed to show more ambition and more forward thinking for us to progress as a club.

Step forward two new owners who most definitely have a more ambitious outlook for the future. There are of course people who will NEVER be happy and so we arrive at complaints over scotch eggs and other completely random issues to serve as a battering ram when things appear to be going ok.

I doubt the owners have changed their outlook on anything from when they started. It's highly possible that unknown barriers, obstacles and off-field plans/aspirations not coming to fruition in an anticipated timescale have altered their understanding of the difficulties and complexities that comes with running a football club of this size. I also think it's highly possible that things unknown to them at the time of purchase that may have come to light has also affected their financial projections and planning.

What happens on the field is not their remit. They provide a budget, one that is not top end of the league but also not bottom end. If the correlation is budget size to league position then all eyes should be on the managers, which it was and resulted in PHs exit.

Ultimately, this town is not awashed with super-rich locals (or exiles) who have a desire to take on the football club. It'd be great if they were but until they are there's no point speculating on it. We as supporters have two main options. Whinge and moan about people who have amassed a personal wealth substantial enough to position themselves as custodians of the club and run it to the best of their ability, without which we have no club at all. The other is at least value that we have people who genuinely care and are doing the best they can and know how. That comes with an acceptance that they are not so rich they can invest personal money into the club to spunk on players in Wrexham/Stockport style.

Personally, I'm just pleased we have a Club that is in no real danger of going under and is run prudently and that our owners care and have ambitious aspirations, albeit requiring patience and time. Give me that over a Peter Swann any day of the week. The football side is on Dave Artell and the players.

One things for sure, maths teachers all over Grimsby are patting themselves on the back reading this thread 😂

Key for me is that there is no chance of a sniff from anyone with 1 game to go.

What the other teams do won't matter of we can manage to win one more game which looks hard at the moment.

If not 2 draws should be enough .

It's going to the last game otherwise.

Swindon have lost 11 of 21 away games this season conceding 45 in the process. We should be picking up 3 points.

Quoted from Mikey_345

One things for sure, maths teachers all over Grimsby are patting themselves on the back reading this thread 😂

I like maths, but it does not matter how you sugarcoat this, if Sutton do better than us on the weekend, then they are a threat. The Colchester position hangs on how we do against them and I fear it.
Sutton will be braver than us that is for sure. That said I am not too critical of Artell as a point last night would’ve been a good result. If we go down, he is extremely likely to lose his job and so in his position, it is hard to argue that he would not act with caution. I have looked at all combinations and three points should be enough utm

Quoted from LocalLadGTFC

Swindon have lost 11 of 21 away games this season conceding 45 in the process. We should be picking up 3 points.

A team playing Swindon at home should be picking up three points. However, we are Grimsby Town.

The last time we finished on 43 points, in 2021 we were relegated. Last year Hartlepool were relegated on 43 points.

We will have a better idea of how many points we need on Saturday. The crucial thing is what happens at Harrogate. We are about to go into two tough away games and its conceivable we could lose them both.  A Sutton win piles the pressure on us. If they lose things are much easier. As is the maths. We stay up if we win one more game this season.

I don't expect anything from the Crewe game. If we  do lose let's hope its by a small margin as the goal difference differential verses Sutton is not that great.

I don't fancy our chances at Crawley either, so the Colchester and Swindon games look .like our best hope for points.

Colchester are a better team than us at the moment and we’ll need some luck to get anything there

They've won 1 out their last 12.

Colchester have won one game at home this year and indeed since the Cowley's took over. That was against Newport, who we can all agree are excrement.

They've failed to beat Accrington who were bang out of form and played a half with ten-men and FGR (who we beat and never threatened our goal, they scored 3 against Colchester).

They draw a lot of games but don't win many. They've won just one of their last 10 (we're on 3). Over the last 6 games they've picked up a point more than us owing to an extra game drawn.

It's hardly a fortress.

Although their pitch did have a moat

Quoted from diehardmariner

Colchester have won one game at home this year and indeed since the Cowley's took over. That was against Newport, who we can all agree are excrement.

They've failed to beat Accrington who were bang out of form and played a half with ten-men and FGR (who we beat and never threatened our goal, they scored 3 against Colchester).

They draw a lot of games but don't win many. They've won just one of their last 10 (we're on 3). Over the last 6 games they've picked up a point more than us owing to an extra game drawn.

It's hardly a fortress.

The drawing lots and winning very few is the perfect recipe for League Two relegation, as we well know. Our form over the last 10 of W3 - D3 - L4 is roughly mid-table form - a continuation of that pattern (let's say W1 D1 L2) over our remaining games would be more than fine.

I have a feeling that when next Tuesday comes around a draw will suit both Town and ColU, if you know what I mean...

The Disgrace of the A12 doesn't quite have the same ring to it...

Hmm, I have a mate who is a season ticket holder at Stockport and watched the Colchester game this week. His assessment does not make easy reading for us:

The best team in the bottom 4 they have played (they did last play us when we were getting battered by all and sundry)

Surprised they are struggling so badly

They'll survive

*Don't shoot the messenger*

Quoted from diehardmariner

The Disgrace of the A12 doesn't quite have the same ring to it...

Is that similar to the Birmingham M6?

Feels like all season everyone's said Colchester are too good to go down.

We've first hand experiences that this is an oxymoron if ever there was one.

In my opinion, if you’re in and around the relegation zone after 40 or so games you deserve to be there and are not too good to go down.

Not relevant to the relegation battle but Morecambe have been docked three points, effectively ending their slim play off hopes.

Quoted from AdamHaddock

Not relevant to the relegation battle but Morecambe have been docked three points, effectively ending their slim play off hopes.

It’s tenuously relevant; they play Forest Green a week on Saturday. Had Forest Green not been all but gone, I’d have been slightly miffed about that.

Quoted from Poojah

Here’s a quick look at what each of our relegation rivals need to do to surpass us, without us winning another point:

FGR (3 games left) - 3 wins, or 2 wins 1 draw + 12GD swing

Sutton (3 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 2 draws, or 1 win 1 draw + 7GD swing

Colchester (5 games left) - 2 wins, 1 win 3 draws, or 1 win 2 draws + 2GD swing

Fixtures remaining:

FGR
Wrexham (a)
Morecambe (a)
Notts County (h)

Sutton
Harrogate (a)
Crawley (h)
MK Dons (a)

Colchester
Crawley (a)
Town (h)
Notts County (a)
Doncaster (h)
Crewe (h)

—

In a scenario where we fail to pick up another point, there’s a good chance Colchester get past us, by virtue of the fact it means they’ll have beaten us. But then you look at what Forest Green need to do and who they have to play, and their chances of getting beyond us are infinitesimal - defeat on Saturday effectively relegates them, and you’d have to imagine that’s a likely outcome given they play Wrexham away, who have the single best home record in the league. They’re as good as gone.

So then that leaves us with Sutton as the major variable. Short of a sizeable GD swing (which looks unlikely with so few games remaining), they either need to win 2 of their last 3, or go unbeaten whilst picking up a win in the process. They’ve got 2 away games, against Harrogate and MK Dons, the latter of which may still be battling for automatic promotion when they play them on the final day.

There’s a potential fly in the ointment in that MK Dons might be out of the automatic chase by the time they play Sutton, and resting players, but there may still be an element of wanting to finish 4th for the supposed advantage that gives you in the play-offs. Their only home game is against Crawley, who are currently in the final play-off berth and have the 3rd best away record in the league.

Ultimately, Forest Green are gone and Sutton have it all to do. And that’s if we stay as we are in terms of points, with another 4 games to go of our own. Personally, I think the probability of us staying up with our current points total is high, and still think we’ll pick up another point or two (we ought to be beating Swindon at home).

I’m with everyone else who wants this wretched season over, but I’m very confident that it at least ends with a modicum of relief.

If we lose our last 4 games and Sutton and Colchester end up with the same points as us then our goal difference advantage would likely be wiped out due to the goals we would have conceded and the goals scored by the other two getting the points they need.

A lot of variables:

3 points option for every team, every game.

Some teams played more or fewer games.

Goal difference:  we can be clearly the best. Or, lose this advantage if heavy defeats for us and/or big wins for our rivals.

With so few games remaining, each game assumes greater significance.  The pressures increase.

Teams in automatic and playoff positions want to maintain their positions.   Teams challenging for these places are highly motivated to win.

Consistency:  or the lack of it.  When we went 6 games unbeaten every other team had lost in a 5 game spell.

Teams at the bottom are more inconsistent - bar losing.  Sutton won 3 games then lost heavily.

We have teams with a lot of injuries and a few injuries.  Teams with little or nothing to play for.  Teams in form or out of form.

Now a points deduction.

So, too many unknown variables to forecast.

Quoted from TownSNAFU5

too many unknown variables to forecast.

Technically you are, of course, correct. But your post forgets a key factor: this message board is full of people either trying to fill their time while avoiding doing some actual work (hello...) or are retired and are entertaining themselves between naps or avoiding jobs their other half wants them to do ('of course love, just a bit tied up right now....')

This message board is doing vital community work and trying to shut down hours of harmless speculation is counter to the general good of society. I note your comment but you really do need to see the big picture.

On the other to try and take your mind of all the
IF that , IF this scenario , trying to pick the horse for the Grand National.
Come the final whistle at Crawley.
UTM.

If it goes down to the nervy last day we are gone .Crawley will beat us easily .Can only see us getting points against Swindon and possibly a draw at Colchester

I think that'll be enough though Norseman.

Time more than anything will save us. We've consistently proved to be incredibly poor this season, but within that we've kept a steady flow of points coming. The teams below us have run out of time to go from excrement to better than our incredibly poor, within that picking up enough points to overtake us.

It's got to the point where I'll probably be more interested in Sutton's game on Saturday than our own. I can see a scenario where we go into the Swindon game desperate for 3 points. A couple of points for us in the next two away games would remove that danger, but I can't see us achieving that.

Quoted from diehardmariner

I think that'll be enough though Norseman.

Time more than anything will save us. We've consistently proved to be incredibly poor this season, but within that we've kept a steady flow of points coming. The teams below us have run out of time to go from excrement to better than our incredibly poor, within that picking up enough points to overtake us.

Ha! I think you've inadvertently hit the nail on the head here....we are sh*t but there are at least 2 teams who are more sh*t. And on that rock we will build our survival.

It’s quite likely that FGR will lose at Wrexham and Sutton at Harrogate. Even if we lose and Colchester win, it will still be

Town 43-43
Colchester 42-41
Sutton 44-39
FGR 44-36

That would leave FGR relegated and Sutton needing to win their last two games and town losing their last three….

Quoted from Norseman

If it goes down to the nervy last day we are gone .Crawley will beat us easily .Can only see us getting points against Swindon and possibly a draw at Colchester

Unless Crawley are certain to be in play offs and they rest a few players.

We get our 2nd away win of the season.

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

It’s quite likely that FGR will lose at Wrexham and Sutton at Harrogate. Even if we lose and Colchester win, it will still be

Town 43-43
Colchester 42-41
Sutton 44-39
FGR 44-36

That would leave FGR relegated and Sutton needing to win their last two games and town losing their last three….

FGR will still be in it. But they'll need a maximum return and hope Colchester fail to pick up anything for the rest of the season, including their game against us a matter of days later. Whatever the price is on Tuesday, the draw is a great value bet.

Just looked, Coral and Ladbrokes currently best odds at 13/5

Is there any combination of results Saturday that means Town and Colchester could play out a draw for both to retain league status?

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

It’s quite likely that FGR will lose at Wrexham and Sutton at Harrogate. Even if we lose and Colchester win, it will still be

Town 43-43
Colchester 42-41
Sutton 44-39
FGR 44-36

That would leave FGR relegated and Sutton needing to win their last two games and town losing their last three….

Fans can outline any scenario they wish, but anything can still happen, from being comfortably safe to being relegated on the last day, which is partly why football is so popular and exciting apart from us poor sods who are emotionally involved.

Quoted from wiggers

Is there any combination of results Saturday that means Town and Colchester could play out a draw for both to retain league status?

No. Not yet.

Even a Colchester win and Sutton defeat on Saturday means a two point cushion for Colchester with Sutton having a further two games to go.

In terms of scenarios, 2 points from the next games for Town means FGR can only match our points if they win all 3 remaining games.  Defeat for them at the weekend will mean they can't catch us, regardless of our results.

Defeat for Sutton at the weekend would mean they need a draw and win from their final two games to match our current points total.  Again, we pick up a single point and they can't catch us in that scenario.

Colchester, in theory and on paper, have it in their hands to go above us.  Game in hand and with us to play despite sitting 5 points behind us.  Defeat for them at the weekend leaves them needing 5 points from 4 games (once again, assuming we pick up nothing at Crewe).  If that happens and we play out a draw next Tuesday nothing will have changed other than they're down to 9 points to play for.  They could still overtake us if they pick up 6 points and we pick up nothing.  Assuming we don't pick up anything, two draws and a win would draw them level and by which point their goal difference would be better than ours.

It's going to take an almighty swing for us to get caught into it.  With the exception of Sutton's run of late, there's nothing to suggest anyone is capable of making that happen.

I dunno a town defeat on saturday and wins for all 3 below will suck us right back into it - :o :-/

However I do think we will lose saturday and only one side below will get a point

But of course a town win would be amazing - can we do it and do the double on Crewe??

Quoted from Mariner Timsky

I dunno a town defeat on saturday and wins for all 3 below will suck us right back into it - :o :-/

However I do think we will lose saturday and only one side below will get a point

But of course a town win would be amazing - can we do it and do the double on Crewe??

Well, we beat Crewe 3 times last season, so we’re their bogey team!

I think if we beat Crewe tomorrow, we stay up. What more of an incentive could the manager and players need?
Then we can forget about this God awful season.

Quoted from bawarmy

I think if we beat Crewe tomorrow, we stay up. What more of an incentive could the manager and players need?
Then we can forget about this God awful season.

genuinely think we could lose every game and be allright

I dont see FGR or Sutton winning 2 of their remaining 3 games.

Quoted from bawarmy

I think if we beat Crewe tomorrow, we stay up. What more of an incentive could the manager and players need?
Then we can forget about this God awful season.

Not so. That would take us to 46 points.

Sutton can still get 48 points, and Colchester 53.

However it would mean FGR can't catch us (they can only get 45 points now) and of course a Sutton defeat at Harrogate would makes us safe if we beat Crewe.

Quoted from RonMariner

Not so. That would take us to 46 points.

Sutton can still get 48 points, and Colchester 53.

However it would mean FGR can't catch us (they can only get 45 points now) and of course a Sutton defeat at Harrogate would makes us safe if we beat Crewe.

That would be doing it the easy way! If only.....

Just hoping for a miracle and we can all breathe easier tomorrow.

Wrexham can as good as guarantee promotion (though not mathematically) if they beat FGR on Saturday so you would think they will go for it. If Crewe beat us tomorrow they are as good as guaranteed a playoff spot as well (though not mathematically) so pressure is on them and we can expect they will be going for it, lets hope they bottle it. The rest of the season who knows what will happen down at the bottom, I dont think anyone can predict the results in this league. :-/

Quoted from RonMariner

Not so. That would take us to 46 points.

Sutton can still get 48 points, and Colchester 53.

However it would mean FGR can't catch us (they can only get 45 points now) and of course a Sutton defeat at Harrogate would makes us safe if we beat Crewe.

psychologically though, us with the massive three points and those below seeing having to better results with so few games left, i think it would effectively kill off the charge.

I think FGR are done for and Colchester have enough about them and enough games to finish above us, so that leaves a straight shoot out between us and Sutton for the other relegation spot, and that is an alarming thought. They looked dead and buried a while back, but have taken 17 points from their last ten games.

Our two draws against them could turn out to be pivotal, as was our losing to Scunny last time we got relegated. That terrible penalty award at their place is hanging around like a smelly fart.

I'd hate for it to go to the last day in a Burton type scenario, with Crawley being another unfashionable team in the same vein, but of course they are much better than we are. Hopefully, they will have nothing riding on it, but even if they rest players, the ones incoming will want to impress.

Praying the results go our way tomorrow, but history suggests that the misery will carry on until the bitter end.

For me the most critical game today is at Harrogate. A home win there and we are in a strong position regardless of what happens at Crewe.

Quoted from RonMariner

For me the most critical game today is at Harrogate. A home win there and we are in a strong position regardless of what happens at Crewe.

Agree, I'm worried that Harrogate are very beatable, it's also the least inhospitable ground in the country and their home form is poor. They were nothing special on Tuesday night and I can see Sutton winning today which, assuming we lose today, makes next Tuesday such a big game.

After today both Sutton and FGR will have only 2 games left ( Max 6 Pts ) compared to our 3 and Colchester 4. Today is a big game for us to win, that said it is massive for the other 3 and defeats for both FGR & Sutton. If they lose, and if we do, FGR are down and we only need 3 points from our last 3 games.

The future is in our hands and 3 points today will be most welcome.

I think a point would be a very good result for Town today against a side who need a win to confirm their place in the play-offs, but I agree with others; the most important result today is at Harrogate.

By best mate is a Crewe fan. I told him to have a word. he replied, "sorted. 3-0 Town."

Here's how I see the season ending...

League Table

21   Grimsby Town          42   43 pts   -18
22   Sutton United         43   39 pts   -25
--------------------------------------------
23   Colchester United     41   38 pts   -20
24   Forest Green Rovers   43   36 pts   -30

Saturday 13th April

Crawley Town v Colchester United         2-0
Crewe Alexandra v Grimsby Town           0-0
Harrogate Town v Sutton United           3-1
Wrexham v Forest Green Rovers            5-1

21   Grimsby Town          43   44 pts   -18
22   Sutton United         44   39 pts   -27
--------------------------------------------
23   Colchester United     42   38 pts   -22
24   Forest Green Rovers   44   36 pts   -34

Tuesday 16th April

Colchester United v Grimsby Town         0-0

21   Grimsby Town          44   45 pts   -18
22   Colchester United     43   39 pts   -22
--------------------------------------------
23   Sutton United         44   39 pts   -27
24   Forest Green Rovers   44   36 pts   -34

*Grimsby all but safe due to GD advantage.

Saturday 20th April

Grimsby Town v Swindon Town              1-0
Morecambe v Forest Green Rovers          1-1
Notts County v Colchester United         2-1
Sutton United v Crawley town             1-1

21   Grimsby Town          45   48 pts   -17
22   Sutton United         45   40 pts   -27
23   Colchester United     44   39 pts   -23
24   Forest Green Rovers   45   37 pts   -34

*Grimsby safety confirmed.
*F.G.R. all but relegated due to GD deficit.

Tuesday 23rd April

Colchester United v Doncaster Rovers     2-0

21   Grimsby Town          45   48 pts   -17
22   Colchester United     45   42 pts   -21
23   Sutton United         45   40 pts   -27
24   Forest Green Rovers   45   37 pts   -34

*F.G.R. relegation confirmed.

Saturday 27th April

Colchester United v Crewe Alexandra      1-1
Crawley Town v Grimsby Town              3-0
Forest Green Rovers v Notts County       3-4
Milton Keynes Dons v Sutton United       1-2

21   Grimsby Town          46   48 pts   -20
22   Colchester United     46   43 pts   -21
--------------------------------------------
23   Sutton United         46   43 pts   -26
24   Forest Green Rovers   46   37 pts   -3

*Sutton relegated.
*Colchester safe.

Basically I think we've already got enough points to stay up.

Crewe’s form has been sketchy at best of late plus quite a few injuries. Great opportunity for us to go there and get three points and make things a lot more comfortable for us.

Harrogate now have a shout at getting into the playoffs. Hopefully they take that with both hands.

Quoted from Mayaman

By best mate is a Crewe fan. I told him to have a word. he replied, "sorted. 3-0 Town."

Thank him from me. UTM.

How about NOW…….

Quoted from Grantham_Mariner

Safe after Crewe :)

Almost on goal difference.

One point needed to be mathematically certain, so I am not running naked through wheat fields with a daffodil up my bottom just yet. Might be on Tuesday though.

Quoted from RonMariner

One point needed to be mathematically certain, so I am not running naked through wheat fields with a daffodil up my bottom just yet. Might be on Tuesday though.

We are not gone Ron , don't worry .

I want us to turn up Tuesday though , I still want to see Colchester relegated with my dislike for them - they would probably be stronger next season with the chuckle brothers in charge aswell ; suspect Sutton would not be .

So so happy and relieved. Didn't foresee this at all today. Was convinced we'd lose and Sutton win.

Only 2 away wins, both 3-0 though and both west of the Pennines.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank Stale Mince for his second successive relegation, and effectively making us safe!

Well done Mariners! I'm delighted for you supporters and for David Artell after his concerning first couple of months.

It's been a phenomenal effort by Sutton, 13 points from their last six games, but they must have been devastated when they came off today and saw our result.

Their best hope now is that we beat Colchester on Tuesday to give them a slim chance of overtaking them.

Quoted from RonMariner

One point needed to be mathematically certain, so I am not running naked through wheat fields with a daffodil up my bottom just yet. Might be on Tuesday though.

Might be dark by the time the final whistle goes. The effect will be lost on everyone. Maybe wait until Wednesday morning

Quoted from RonMariner

One point needed to be mathematically certain, so I am not running naked through wheat fields with a daffodil up my bottom just yet. Might be on Tuesday though.

Around here the daffodils are drooping and not stiff enough to stick up anyway
Just enjoy the moment

Quoted from IlkleyMariner

Around here the daffodils are drooping and not stiff enough to stick up anyway
Just enjoy the moment

The trick is to put them in the deep freeze first.

Quoted from Mayaman

By best mate is a Crewe fan. I told him to have a word. he replied, "sorted. 3-0 Town."

Do you have any mates in Colchester?

Daft penalty aside, that’s been a hell of a set of results from Sutton. Would’ve rather them stay up than Colchester tbh.

I’m breathing btw.

Since the disaster against Doncaster we have played 12 games, wining 4, drawing 5 and losing 3. That's 17 points. That form over a full season gets you to 65 points and a likely top ten finish.

That is quite a turnaround. So there is certainly something to build on for next season. If Artell can bring in more players of the caliber of Thompson and Tharm things could start looking up next season.

Quoted from RonMariner

Since the disaster against Doncaster we have played 12 games, wining 4, drawing 5 and losing 3. That's 17 points. That form over a full season gets you to 65 points and a likely top ten finish.

That is quite a turnaround. So there is certainly something to build on for next season. If Artell can bring in more players of the caliber of Thompson and Tharm things could start looking up next season.

I just hope we don’t start next season by only trying to play total football, since Donny the pragmatic approach has worked.

Tuesday will be interesting. If we beat them Colchester might be in a spot of trouble. They have to play Doncaster who are on fire at the moment, Notts County and Crewe,

I am hoping for a repeat of Vernam's wonder goal the last time he played there, but would happily take a draw.

Quoted from RonMariner

Tuesday will be interesting. If we beat them Colchester might be in a spot of trouble. They have to play Doncaster who are on fire at the moment, Notts County and Crewe,

I am hoping for a repeat of Vernam's wonder goal the last time he played there, but would happily take a draw.

As someone once said “I’d love it if we beat them”.

Quoted from HertsGTFC

I just hope we don’t start next season by only trying to play total football, since Donny the pragmatic approach has worked.

A significant proportion of the team is still going to be here next season, and we already know that they can't play that style effectively. If we revert to "total football" again and it backfires, it would demonstrate that people at the club haven't learned anything this season.

Quoted from jamesgtfc

A significant proportion of the team is still going to be here next season, and we already know that they can't play that style effectively. If we revert to "total football" again and it backfires, it would demonstrate that people at the club haven't learned anything this season.

I disagree. A large proportion of the squad is out of contract and could be replaced. It was a little too early, but he's a gaffer that prefers passing football, and I expect he'll try again. He's obviously learned lessons and can manage a competent defensive apporach, so I expect he'll try to get it working while having an alternative option if needed.

Just because he cannot get a Hurst built team passing, doesn't mean it's impossible after a summer transfer window.

Despite the way the table looks, I still can't relax. Until we get that one final point we need the job isn't done in my book.

Ok, so Sutton have two tough games to play but they play Crawley, who have just lost to Colchester, and then MK who will no doubt be resting players ahead of the play offs. They certainly could win both of those games and end up with 46 points.

Yes, there is a ten goal difference, but should we get turned over by Colchester, Swindon and Crawley it could get very uncomfortable.

Don't get me wrong, I do think we will stay up, it's just that the fat lady isn't singing just yet, but she is on her way to the microphone.

Quoted from RonMariner

Despite the way the table looks, I still can't relax. Until we get that one final point we need the job isn't done in my book.

Ok, so Sutton have two tough games to play but they play Crawley, who have just lost to Colchester, and then MK who will no doubt be resting players ahead of the play offs. They certainly could win both of those games and end up with 46 points.

Yes, there is a ten goal difference, but should we get turned over by Colchester, Swindon and Crawley it could get very uncomfortable.

Don't get me wrong, I do think we will stay up, it's just that the fat lady isn't singing just yet, but she is on her way to the microphone.

Bet 365 have us at 500/1 to go down . Stop worrying .