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Form going into the Play-offs

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GollyGTFC
April 25, 2016, 10:55am

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Does form matter in the National League play-offs?

There have been 13 previous play-offs at this level since they were introduced in 2002/03. If we compare the form over the final 8 matches of teams going into the play-offs the team that won promotion has been ranked against their rivals as follows...

Where were the winners in the form ranking over the final 8 matches of the season?

1st - Won play-offs 3 times (75% win ratio in Final)
2nd - Won play-offs 3 times (50% win ratio in Final)
3rd - Won play-offs 4 times (50% win ratio in Final)
4th - Won play-offs 3 times (37.5% win ratio in Final)

Which suggests that overall form at the end of the season is irrelevant. However, when the in form team get to the Final they usually win.

Where are the finalists in the form ranking over the final 8 matches of the season?

1st - Finalist 4 times (30.8% win ratio in Semi-Final)
2nd - Finalist 6 times (46.2% win ratio in Semi-Final)
3rd - Finalist 8 times (61.5% win ratio in Semi-Final)
4th - Finalist 8 times (61.5% win ratio in Semi-Final)

The 2 "out of form" teams are more likely to reach the Play-Off Final than "in form" teams.

League Points in final 8 matches of the Play-Off Winners

The Play-off winners had the following points over the final 8 matches...

12 points - 1 time
13 points - 4 times
14 points - 2 times
15 points - 1 time
16 points - 1 time
17 points - 1 time
18 points - 1 time
19 points - 2 times

Average - 15.1 points.

Interestingly, 6 teams have gone into the play-offs having achieved 20 or more points in their final 8 matches. But none have won promotion. In fact Hereford won their final 11 matches in 2003/04 and failed to win promotion.

Also, 7 teams have gone into the play-offs having achieved 11 or less points in their final 8 matches. Again, none have won promotion.

Which suggests it is better to take average form into the play-offs than either of the 2 extremes.

Form of this season's Play-off teams

Over the last 7 matches (with 1 to go)...

Forest Green Rovers - 5 points
Grimsby Town - 8 points
Dover Athletic - 12 points
Braintree Town - 10 points
Tranmere Rovers - 13 points
Eastleigh - 12 points

It's hard to see Braintree failing to beat Altrincham and Dover are likely to beat hopelessly out of form F.G.R., so I would predict the 3 other play-off participants will go in with...

Forest Green Rovers - 5 points (in their final 8 league matches)
Dover Athletic - 15 points
Braintree Town - 13 points

We will go in with 8, 9 or 11 points in our final 8 matches- less than any team has achieved and gone on to win promotion. F.G.R. will obviously do the same.

Interestingly, Dover are likely to go in with the average points of a play-off winner (15) and Braintree with the most frequent points of a play-off winner (13- 4 times).

Basically, we are going to have to make history to win the play-offs given our current form.. Also, no team has won the play-offs with fewer than 81 points over the season. If we lose on Saturday we'll go in with 80 (and in 5th place in the league) and have to face F.G.R.

Basically, everything is pointing towards Dover or Braintree winning the play-offs.
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jonnyboy82
April 25, 2016, 10:53am
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Thanks good read.


GTFC
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Bigdog
April 25, 2016, 11:02am
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With our poor form going into the play-offs, I'd like us to avoid playing Dover, Braintree and FGR.
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GollyGTFC
April 25, 2016, 11:28am

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I'm happy with anyone if we're away first. And FGR will do if we're home first.
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GrimRob
April 25, 2016, 11:46am

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Interestingly the bookies reach the opposite conclusion to you and make us and FGR clear favourites, they are obviously assuming we will not meet one another.


'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.  
~ Alfred Lord Tennyson

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GollyGTFC
April 25, 2016, 12:14pm

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Quoted from GrimRob
Interestingly the bookies reach the opposite conclusion to you and make us and FGR clear favourites, they are obviously assuming we will not meet one another.


The bookies had us favourites in all but 1 league game this seasons (Cheltenham away).
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Cloudy
April 25, 2016, 12:37pm
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Quoted from GollyGTFC


The bookies had us favourites in all but 1 league game this seasons (Cheltenham away).


So they were correct 50% of the time!

In my view the fact that Hereford failed to win promotion after going into the play offs in good form has absolutely nothing to do with Town, Dover or anyone else for that matter and the same goes for teams finishing here, there or anywhere. Its down to how teams play on the day plus that little bit of luck imo
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barralad
April 25, 2016, 12:34pm
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Love it Golly. Statstastic!!


The aim of argument or discussion should not be victory but progress.

Joseph Joubert.
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Barrattstander
April 25, 2016, 3:25pm

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Apart from one game, all the matches between the PROBABLE play-off contenders have been extremely tight:-
                  BR     DOV    FGR    GY
Braintree             1-0       1-1     0-0
Dover       0-0                            1-1
FGR         1-0     3-1                  0-1
Town        0-1     1-0        1-1

Giving a mini-league table between those four, with the Dover v FGR game to play:-
                    P    W    D    L    F    A    PTS
Town           6     2     3     1     4    3     9
Braintree     6     2     3     1     3    2     9
FGR            5     2     2     1     6    4     8
Dover          5     0     2     3     2    6     2

    Dover may be the form team, but they have the worst record against the other contenders, I think this shows that the play-offs will probably be very tight
with few goals.


62 Seasons following the Mariners from the Barrett Stand side.(apart from 2020-21)
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grimps
April 25, 2016, 3:31pm
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I don't understand any of this , are we going up then or what ?
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